Tuesday, October 3, 2017

I'm Still Not Done...

I had a lot of free time, a big yard, and several housecats around growing up. When there's a gopher in the yard, a cat will sit outside the hole for hours, even days, without eating or moving, just waiting for the gopher to pop up and WHAP, no more gopher.

Dad wasn't a dog guy, and the GI Bill post-WWII house he bought in the San Fernando Valley was riddled with gophers originally. And you can learn a lot about hunting from housecats, I promise you.

So, in pondering things pretty much non-stop at the moment, it's come out that Mr. Mass Shooter had rigged cameras to his peepholes, and in the corridor, including one concealed on a food service tray in the hallway.

And in looking at the emergency diagram I showed you earlier, this hit me:

The door to the emergency stairwell in his wing is right across the hallway from the door of the adjoining room he rented.

In short, any approach to his room other than rappelling from above he could see coming.
He could put effective fire on both approaches. From behind cover. Until he ran out of ammunition.

Short of rappelling down, or explosive breaching through room walls, he was untouchable.

And despite shooting up 600 people outside, and being able to view the corridor and stairwell approaches, he made no attempt to repel the approach of SWAT officers, despite ample time, resources, and demonstrated ability to plan for the obvious and inevitable.

FFS, SWAT's been around since the 1970s, and Paddock probably watched the frickin' TV show in college; the SLA shootout in LA happened while he was a student in Los Angeles at Cal State Northridge. So it's not like this was news to him, or his plans.

So the only reason not to offer resistance to the police who eventually found him, was that killing another 5-20 heavily armed police SWAT members simply wasn't part of the plans for the operation.

And make no mistake, this was an operation, not a lone wolf blaze of glory.

So, who would shoot up 600 civilians (including a couple of police, off-duty or inadvertently) but not make any effort to shoot the police who inevitably came knocking, 72 minutes after the rampage kicked off?

And why wouldn't someone allegedly just trying to notch up a score (because no reasons) do that...??

I am the absolute last guy on the planet to buy into barking nutjob conspiracy theories.
(BTW, the easiest way to undo them, in 99% of cases, is grant the central premises, and then watch them fall apart logically. Or they fall back on the Lack Of Proof = Proof fallacy)
But every new revelation, like who he worked for, which the FBI "forgot to mention", and working through the timelines and physical layouts of the details of this shooting, his sketchy background, quiet rich guy no one thinks about personality, disappearing for months at a time, piles of money, overseas transfers of large sums of cash, multiple houses but all sparsely furnished, and on and on and on, keep pointing to a planned complex operation by operatives, not a random act by a lone individual with a screw loose. Certainly not a lackluster retired 64-y.o accountant.

There's a metric fuckton of secret squirrel agency-type tradecraft going on in this, from the minute it happened to now.

So, when was that suite reserved?
When did he begin purchasing the guns, etc. used in the attack?

This thing was put together over months, maybe a year or more.

Pick it apart, and show me I'm wrong, using facts in evidence.

When it walks like a duck, and it quacks like a duck...

And following up on an earlier comment added to my last post, one of Paddock's airplanes, or former airplanes, tail number N5343M, was an SR-20, in production since 1999, and retails for $390K. Everybody's got a spare $390K, right? No word on what Paddock's other plane is. 

It's now registered to Volant Associates, LLC (you should check out their website, and read the "Careers" page, to see if you get a whiff of Christians In Action as strongly as I did). The tail number is active, yet apparently, the plane has recorded not a single registered flight in the last three years. Pssst! Say, just wondering, who can double-register tail numbers, and make flight records go away? Asking for a friend.

But the killer "Hmmmmm" part, repeated for emphasis:
Now the interesting part, if you go to faa.gov and put the same tail number into their search engine N5343M, you will find that the FAA says the n-number is inactive, and the last registration was a C152 (different aircraft) to some guy in San Diego CA. And no mention of the current registration by Volant LLC, or Mr Paddock. The FAA database is updated every business day at midnight. So, it looks like someone ether scrubbed the FAA database and forgot or didn't know that flightaware posted the same info

Dear guys in the black van: check your seals. The chair is against the wall.

(And for the record, I'm happy, well-adjusted, physically healthy and mentally sound, enjoy my job, and have many fulfilling and enjoyable hobbies, pasttimes, and projects, which I look forward to continuing for some number of years, as time and circumstance give me the opportunity, and I drive safely in a well-maintained and sturdy vehicle, and always unload my weapons before I clean them. Just in case the topic should ever come up...)


Anonymous said...

well. no doubt there is a narrative preprinted on this, but one thing I want to ask you, as you have far more experience in gaming these scenarios than I do-why would LE not have used the stairwells as a point of first approach? I don't know if the doors are self-latching from the stairwell side, but in any case maintenance would have a key. The response from the left wing jackasses on this -in public, no less- betrays the same kind of mental sloth that the nondeplorables exhibited in the election. An echo chamber has no external points of confirmation/correction, so I think it very plausible that this whole operation was a twofer. Demoralize and disarm. Like many of their recent attempts, I think too many people have seen this show before for it to have the effect they expect.
Again, no resistance offered when the means of detecting and repelling assault, regardless of approach route, stinks like a three day old fish.
Or psyops.

Badger said...

Continuing to follow, thanks for the play.
Off-topic theorizing that we're likely of a similar vintage, post-World War II tract houses in the San Fernando Valley being the base of many pleasant memories. (Dad ex B-29 driver & we were in that northern slice of Van Nuys since annexed to be part of Sherman Oaks. Seem to recall being told once that those houses were about $8K at the time.)

Badger said...

Correction: southern slice of Van Nuys

Anonymous said...

Post-WWII tract house in La Puente till we moved more upscale north and east.
And this thing stinks like burnin shitters...
Thanks for collating the data
Boat Guy

Irish said...

Here's a whole list of questions for ya Aesop:


SiGraybeard said...

The only problem I have with thinking down this path is that it required the guy buy into dying for the mission. Either that or they assured him there was a way out and then killed him anyway - they lied.

A suicide mission? I'm really naive here and you know far more than me, but I'm under the impression we don't order people to off themselves. We will put them in very dangerous situations, but we do everything we can to ensure that those people have a good chance of getting out. Do they really say, "you do x, y and z and then we kill you?" Or do they say, "this is a really dangerous mission and there's a chance you might get killed?" And then renege on the deal?

It appears to be in the profile of the mass shooter that they generally kill themselves as soon as they're cornered. It often looks as though they plan on killing themselves as soon as they're cornered. I can't say I've met many people from "Christians in Action", or those other TLAs, but I can say none of the ones I've met have been suicidal.

0007 said...

A way out for him? Down the stairwell door and he becomes just another guest trying to get away from the gunfire upstairs maybe; before the local popo got there? Except that somehow they got there sooner rather than later.

Cavalryman40 said...

Since the very beginning the FBI though their mouthpiece on the ground Sheirff Lombardo has pushed the lone wolf, no link to terrorism narrative. Last night during his press conference, a visibly frustrated Joe Lombardo let something slip, he uttered the "R" word for the first time. As in "we don't know if he was radicalized without our knowledge. Now many are taking this as Joe inadvertently letting some info out. Well, if you know Joe like we in Vegas know him, he is no Ralph Lamb. He is a perfect politician. Nothing he says goes against the narrative. If he let this slip, it was on purpose. They know the narrative is falling apart and now they are going to take it another direction.

Aesop said...

You're assuming he thought he wasn't walking out.

If he knew he was going to die, (which has to be true if he's the ad hoc shooter), why not take on the cops??
If he thought he was going to live, why hang out for an hour-plus after capping the first 600 rounds off?

He could have dumped the mags (5 minutes), walked across the hallway to the fire stairs, and loooooong before anyone showed up, been in the wind (5 more minutes, all downhill). (With a plane, literally. Remember he was an instrument-rated pilot who owned two planes, sitting across the frickin' street from the airport, FFS.) An hour before the cops came knocking, he could have been in Timbuktu. By the time they knew who they were looking for, he's in Mexico, and after that anywhere he wants. He'd be a hero in Cuba, Venezuela, or anywhere from Tunisia to Indonesia, etc. and he's got money to burn.

Uncle Lar said...

Couple thoughts here.
A bumpfire stock is just a mechanical refinement of a trick some shooters developed utilizing a semi auto with a trigger finger hooked into a belt loop. Great way to burn ammo in the best spray and pray tradition. Best I recall a bumpfire stock is incompatible with a bipod or tripod supported firearm.
And too, current firearm count is upwards of 40 weapons. Given the meticulous way this whole business was planned out there is no way he would have brought untested guns to the event, particularly those retrofitted with bumpfire which can be rather finicky to get operating reliably. Sure, lots of wide open space in Nevada, but still testing and breaking in that number of guns would get someone noticed.

RSR said...

Miss Hognose's blog and the comments braintrust especially in times like these... Regardless, great coverage here.

This is VERY interesting if true: http://www.commonsenseevaluation.com/2017/10/04/interesting-info-regarding-a-plane-once-registered-to-stephen-paddock/

Dianna said...

I keep saying this doesn't add up, but reading your series of questions, I am thoroughly puzzled and confused. Heck, how did he actually get 23 guns to his suite and housekeeping saw nothing out of the ordinary?!

No clue, I'm just fascinated.

RSR said...

Allegedly prescribed Valium in June: https://www.reviewjournal.com/local/the-strip/las-vegas-strip-shooter-prescribed-anti-anxiety-drug-in-june/

Also, apparently blocked access/use of stairwell door somehow. Shot security guard in leg and shot at regular police attempting to make entry. Hence SWATs ultimate delayed entry: https://www.thedailybeast.com/unarmed-security-guard-jesus-campos-took-on-las-vegas-killer-stephen-paddock

Teshuvah said...

"Short of rappelling down, or explosive breaching through room walls, he was untouchable."

No. There is another way. They could have sent a helicopter gunship in and shot up his room. It worked in the movies. Why not in real life? They could have called next door rooms by phone and told them to hit the decks.

Aesop said...

Sh'yeah, as if.

Movies are fun, and then there's the real world.
Which is why movies aren't called documentaries.

Here's how your fantasy convo went down at PD HQ:
"Say, Chief, how's about we just spray down the entire area from the helo?"
"So, Officer Dumbass, does this guy have any hostages inside the room??"
"Duh, gee, Chief I dunno..."
"GetTFO of my office, you idiot!"

Teshuvah said...

Suppose he had 1 hostage in there. I'm guessing he didn't have any. Will you hold back the whole army of cops while he shoots 600 from his window? It is a triage moment.

Why did cops take so long to stop Las Vegas shooter? | Daily Mail Online

Irish said...

Teshuvah. Here is a link to the timeline that someone commented on another of Aesop's post about vegas.


Aesop said...

Police don't get "triage moments".
It's why they're not called the army.
Killing one hostage is manslaughter, and gazillions in civil liability.

Papa said...

"...triage moment".
Well said.
600+ vs 1 - 12 in a large suite.

John ShootBetter said...

"Here's how your fantasy convo went down at PD HQ:"
Philadelphia, 1985:
Police Commissioner Sambor: "Lackey, call the State Police and see if we can use their helicopter to drop these FBI bombs on the MOVE house."
Lackey: "The Staties said we can use their chopper."
Cmr Sambor: "Lt. Powell, drop these bombs on the MOVE house!"
MOVE house: "Foom."


Aesop said...

I'm well-aware of the MOVE example of Philly PD urban renewal.
Which is exactly why nobody but the feds is that stupid now.
(The stupidity and self-invincibility belief of federal agencies cannot be measured with existing instrumentation. A lot of that has to do with how hard it is to sue the latter, versus the former.)