Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Why I Like Smart People -Updated

Because they raise smart questions.
In this case, SiGraybeard in earlier comments:

The only problem I have with thinking down this path is that it required the guy buy into dying for the mission. Either that or they assured him there was a way out and then killed him anyway - they lied.

A suicide mission? I'm really naive here and you know far more than me, but I'm under the impression we don't order people to off themselves. We will put them in very dangerous situations, but we do everything we can to ensure that those people have a good chance of getting out. Do they really say, "you do x, y and z and then we kill you?" Or do they say, "this is a really dangerous mission and there's a chance you might get killed?" And then renege on the deal?

It appears to be in the profile of the mass shooter that they generally kill themselves as soon as they're cornered. It often looks as though they plan on killing themselves as soon as they're cornered. I can't say I've met many people from "Christians in Action", or those other TLAs, but I can say none of the ones I've met have been suicidal.
My reply:
 You're assuming he thought he wasn't walking out.

If he knew he was going to die, (which has to be true if he's the ad hoc shooter), why not take on the cops??
If he thought he was going to live, why hang out for an hour-plus after capping the first 600 rounds off?

He could have dumped the mags (5 minutes), walked across the hallway to the fire stairs, and loooooong before anyone showed up, been in the wind (5 more minutes, all downhill). (With a plane, literally. Remember he was an instrument-rated pilot who owned two planes, sitting across the frickin' street from the airport, FFS.) An hour before the cops came knocking, he could have been in Timbuktu. By the time they knew who they were looking for, he's in Mexico, and after that anywhere he wants. He'd be a hero in Cuba, Venezuela, or anywhere from Tunisia to Indonesia, etc. and he's got money to burn.
Of course, if he's planning to die, why not take on the cops too?

If he's not planning to die, why hang around for an hour after the deed?

Once again, the signs point both ways simultaneously.
And yeah, Duh! He's an instrument-rated pilot, with two airplanes, sitting in a hotel across the frickin' street from McCarran International Airport.
Mr. Mass Shooter could have dumped 6 100-rd mags, walked down the stairs, across the street, and been on the way to Mexico before they even knew who, where, or anything else.
And he would have made it, easily.

Or driven uptown to a smaller private airport, same same. Ten/fifteen-minute exfil, get in the plane, off to Mexico, or wherever. An hour before SWAT even comes knocking.

If he wanted to die, why not take the SWAT cops with him? They never laid a glove on him because he was dead when they made entry.

I have to suspect, at this point, that he may have been COLD and dead when they made entry, and possibly long before they nailed down the perimeter.

A guy who'd cap 600 people isn't going to crap his pants about shooting it out with the po-po, even SWAT, and his room gave him all the advantages for everything short of explosive dynamic entry, an SAS-style rappel from the roof firing machineguns into his face through the windows, or lobbing 40mm HEDP grenades at him from the elevator corridor.

And a guy who's thinking he could do it just to do it could have done the whole deal in the opening five minutes, then split, and been the most famous fugitive since D.B. Cooper, putting his old man to shame, and shoving it into the FBI's face for what they did to his dear old daddy.

Whoever checked into the room used girlfriend's plastic.
So where's the video of that guy?
Where's the video of Paddock making trip after trip hauling his arsenal to the 32d floor?
And who else was coming and going?
When did LVMPD establish a perimeter around the Vista Suite in 32-135?
How long was that after the initial shooting?
Who, and how many, left the floor, and hotel, before that time?

It. Simply. Doesn't. Add. Up.
Everything at every turn goes in too many squirrelly directions.
And they're not telling us anything that makes the pieces we have line up in any coherent manner.

And more from Cavalryman40, who's turning into a rock star in comments:
I still have to believe that as a pilot, if he really wanted to kill people, he would have just went over to Henderson Airport, rented a plane, and simply flown it right into the crowd. Easier, less planning, and no way to get caught and be stopped beforehand. And he would have killed 10 times more people. But he didn't do that did he? It wouldn't send the proper message. Had to be a mass shooting. We wonder why he would bring 23 guns with him, when he only needed a couple to do the job? The message, "LOOK AT THIS GUY, HE HAD 23 GUNS!" Like it matters. Well it does matter to the hysterical public, and it matters to the people behind this. 21 of the guns were props. And yes, I believe he thought he was going to get away. If he was simply going to die, we are back to the airplane again. He was dead, before metro got there, and that begs the question. Who did get away?

As the Brits would say. "F**king Brilliant!"
The guy could have taken one of his planes and plowed into that crowd like ninepins, and he would've killed hundreds, outright.
But he didn't do that, did he?
If he's just looking for a big splash, that's it. he could even eat a pistol just at impact, and eliminate the worry of accidentally surviving and going to prison forever, assuming the crash didn't kill him.

So the whole "looking to make a mark" argument for motive goes right into the shitter, right there.

This guy was far more likely a planted corpse than a mass murderer, and there's gotta be a metric f**kton of things TPTB know that they aren't passing along.

This story isn't being reported, it's being managed, massaged, and woven, mainly out of whole cloth.


Angus McThag said...

"I did it for Johnny!" Debbie (Homecoming Queen).

Domo said...

Unless he actually wargamed it, its unlikely the idea of getting out occurred to him.

Hyper Intelligent people are far more likely to fall for confirmation bias than normals.

Generally speaking the police are pretty quick at engaging active shooters.
At which point they are killed, pinned in place and suicide, or pinned in place and are killed.

I suspect he was very confused for quite some time.

Its also possible he thought he was trapped after shooting at a security guard, which I believe happened quite early.

Had he ran, im not sure he would have lived.
Imagine youre the cuban dictator and he lands, do you give him, a mass murderer, a heroes welcome, or do you execute him on the spot.
If youre POTUS and he gets a heroes welcome, do you shake youre head, or do you drop a 2000lb bomb on him and blow up you any cuban military target that looks at you funny?

Sceptic2 said...

More movie-plot: Man with terminal diagnosis knows he is going to die anyway, so he does something dramatic resulting in his death but achieving some other goal. . .

Aesop said...

You're assuming he went into this knowing it was certain suicide.
I would assume that, if I stuck around all that time.
That being the case, why be surprised and stunned when the police show up (like you know they're going to do)?

But whether he did that is exactly the question at issue.

The key comes down to, When was the room absolutely isolated (remembering that his second room's door was a 10' dash to the stairwell, at which point you're just another panicked guest fleeing for their lives)?

Welcome Black Carter said...

Do we know he did not ingest lead right after knee-capping hotel security? If he is still converting oxygen to C02, why not continue bumping mags out the windows?

Irish said...

More interesting things at Pamala Geller's

again FWIW

Anonymous said...

Very first thing out of both my husband's mouth and my own was "Aren't this casino windows all sealed shut?" Lo and behold, look at the casino and the broken out window sticks out like a sore thumb. Why didn't the authorities see that in the 72 minutes they were looking for the shooter?

Anderson said...

I believe there could be a Liberal douchebag out there, say a David Geffen type, with both the money and the moxie to order an "op" like this just for its pure shock value to stop the momentum that the 2nd Amendment proponents were currently enjoying. Country music fans would be their ideal crowd to suffer the fate too.

The Left plays to win and I believe nothing is too sinister for them to consider

JTwig said...

What I think is strange is the lack of leaks from the investigation. Yes we've seen some crime scene photos, but by now the working motive (even if it isn't the final motive) is usually leaked. We also usually have all their social media history. Yet everything about him seems to have been locked down tight before his name was leaked.

Moved 27 different times in the last 30-some years, made frequent trips overseas due to his work as an accountant for an aerospace firm? Then made it rich in realistate and retired? Owns two planes, and made many trips across both borders? If I was writting a novel about a (semi)retired CIA agent it would sound like this.

Thats the problem for me, and it seems like a lot of other, it all sounds written and artificial. Not natural and (I can't believe I'm going to use this word) organic like real life.

watsonrg said...

I haven't heard how long was the duration of the shooting. Anyone know?

MartyB said...

Thanks for the effort you've been putting into this. Great commentary as usual. To be sure, this whole thing doesn't make any sense. What if, rather than a suicide mission, this was an elaborately planned suicide? Guy was a loner who didn't seem to get along with his species (publicly demeaning to the woman, no interaction with neighbors, not real close or warm & fuzzy with family). Planner to be sure, but maybe all he planned was to go out with a bang. Allegedly took the coward's way out before LVMPD touched him. And prescribed anti-anxiety meds 4 months ago. Just speculation on my part, but we don't know whether snakes in his brain were whispering sweet nothings to him, and/or his gambling got the better of him financially or emotionally. Could just be naivety on my part, but what if this a$$hole was just pure evil and planned to live in infamy after shutting himself off by killing more innocents than any other mass shooter in history?

"The difference between fiction and reality? Fiction has to make sense."

Jerry said...

I'm wondering why didn't he burn the hotel room before eating his gun?

Anonymous said...

To make things even weirder, Newsweek retracted a story about Marilou Danley, but the original article is still up elsewhere right now for perusal:

Normally I'd say the press screwed up here and got two people confused, but after the Flightaware/FAA thing pointed out here, I'm not sure what to think. Are they both "Gray"?

"At times, her identities merged: Marilou filed for bankruptcy in 2012, under the name Bustos, while she was still married to Danley and living with Paddock in Reno. Her lawyer during the bankruptcy has not yet responded to a request for comment. Marilou travels back to California often to visit her daughter there, Reno neighbors told Newsweek.

Marilou held multiple addresses, some simultaneously — in Arkansas, Tennessee, California, Florida and other states, and often moved through cities within those states."

Quote is from the original (now retracted) article. We know from her deleted Facebook account that she traveled constantly. Basically she sounds like the female version of a spook, which would answer your question also about why and how they "hooked up". They didn't. They were working together.

Now we get the "innocent lady" thing being plastered all over the media... poor sister, poor Grandma, such a gentle soul. She had no idea why he bought her a seat to the Philippines. Oh, the poor dear.

MY ASS. In the time it would have taken him to plan all of this out, SHE WOULD KNOW THAT HE WAS AMASSING A STOCKPILE. Please. Maybe the "wine, shoes, and gal" crowd will buy this, I sure as hell don't. She's no innocent, and she's as bizarre as he was. And Newsweek was told to retract that article, dollars to doughnuts, and now the narrative has been changed. The wheelchair was a nice prop...

Anonymous said...

one last thought, if the tail number scrub has merit, ask what sort of access you must have to get something like that done.

Then ask if anyone with that sort of access could ever, in a million years, afford to let the truth come out?

I'd be working on the "rogue agent" or "sudden jihadi syndrome" reveals as fast as I can. Find a dupe at CBS or CNN and lead them by the nose if necessary.

NO WAY if this is that high up that it can come out. LOTSA people dead before that happens.


Aesop said...


So the gf's backstrory is just as screwy as he was??

Like I needed 30 more squirrels to chase down on this.

But working together?

I think you've hit gold there.

Anonymous said...

So i heard they found traces of ammonium nitrate in his car. link: 1 million dollar question, were are and who has the bombs? killing 59 people and wounding hundreds one hell of a distraction to exfil the location. i was told by a guy who spent years hunting bad guys North Africa and Mid East. Boston, two pasty (expendabale) who could have gotten away pretty easy create a big splash hours after the attack, Why? San Bernardino, two pasty (expendables) who could have gotten away create a big splash hours after the event, why? forget the guns, who has the bombs?

Cavalryman40 said...

Check out the Drudge headline, "ROOM SERVICE FOR 2!"

He was not alone.

Aesop said...

The next two stories:

1) The media angle they're trying for now is :
"Descent Into Madness": the slow slide to insanity culminating in mass murder, like happens to everyone who turns 64...

2) The GF, Marilou Danley, wisely lawyered up the minute the FBI got her to an interrogation room. She said she would answer no questions without an attorney present. So they cut her loose, having nothing to hold her on.

Weetabix said...

Lots of weird stuff here.

Maybe ISIS's soldier “Abu Abd El Bar” DID do it, and he left Mr. Haddock behind as a dead herring?

Maybe it's the same bad guys from the movie "Arlington Road"?

Re: "SHE WOULD KNOW THAT HE WAS AMASSING A STOCKPILE." Well... I don't always tell my wife about everything I buy. She knows I have some, but I'll bet they all look alike to her.

Re: ammonium nitrate - I read they found (OMG!) tannerite at his house. Not much use for this scenario, and locally available at my MOD. I've never used it, but I think it's more for shits and giggles than for anything serious.

Welcome Black Carter said...

"I haven't heard how long was the duration of the shooting. Anyone know?"

11 minutes, includes pauses, is what I read.

Anonymous said...

it was tannerite? no big deal, unless we are talking pounds and pounds of it. it is AM but yes very common. expect that be on the list of thing they will try too ban.

Anonymous said...

Weetabix, true, and I stockpile yarn that my husband doesn't look twice at because to him all yarn is pretty much the same, but we're talking a LOT of guns. If my husband were to start amassing THAT many weapons, I'd probably notice if I was living with him. I also enjoy target shooting at the range though, so no, all of them don't alike to me... so maybe some spouses would be oblivious? I just don't think so in her case - her story is very strange also.

Mike_C said...

> made frequent trips overseas due to his work as an accountant for an aerospace firm
Put that together with what he did, and it's looking like someone plotted this based in part on the 2016 Ben Affleck movie.

Anonymous said...

Looking at the receipt and the article about "Room Service For 2".. ANOTHER fishy thing pops up with the dates he was there. The receipt clearly shows his name and September 27th.

Authorities say he checked in on the 28th from everywhere else I've read. Either the hotel's timestamp is screwy (yet another thing VERY odd here), or he checked in earlier. As for the items on the receipt being for one or two, no clue, it SAYS 2 guests though.

Then again if I was alone in a hotel room, the burger and two sodas would be for the night before, the bagel and water would be for the next morning.. which means that if he was alone, he checked in at least on the night of the 27th, the receipt's timestamp is correct, and the authorities are screwing up yet ANOTHER simple thing. Who's investigating this thing, Mr. Bean?!

Cavalryman40 said...

We have had conflicting dates given to us as to when he checked in. You have some good points on the time stamp. But why order diner and breakfast at the same time? This is not the Marriott, this is a Las Vegas Strip resort. The kitchen is open 24/7 and so is the room service. Unless he wanted to limit the visits to the room by the staff, and that is certainly a possibility.

SiGraybeard said...

After an enjoyable few hours making metal chips, I came back in to new postings and I shouldn't re-read my comment. (Thanks for kind words, BTW)

In the reply to my comment, you said, If he knew he was going to die, (which has to be true if he's the ad hoc shooter), why not take on the cops??
If he thought he was going to live, why hang out for an hour-plus after capping the first 600 rounds off?

That's just one of the things bothering me. Among the things being talked about (no idea if any of it is true) is that he had video cameras around the floor, including one on a food cart (and you know those carts get moved pretty regularly) to look down the hall for approaching SWAT. One report said he had a camera on the peephole in the door for the same basic reason. Why not take as many SWAT guys with him as he could? From that aspect, he looks more like the idiot from Sandy Hook or the Portland mall, where one guy showed up with a concealed carry gun and mall shooter blew his own head off.

It doesn't make sense. It looks too much like an offensive by the anti-gun lobby to get gun control in the media again, maybe kill off the SHARE act, maybe get another AWB. Then as if on cue, the useful idiot Feinstein introduces a bill to ban bump stocks today.

The pictures and story that Pamela Geller has showing some people who look like Paddock and his GF at a pussy hat rally - with Paddock wearing the pussy - add tinder to the fire that it's an Anti-Trump shooting, like the ex-CBS lawyer-twat said. There's a picture of the GF in Dubai - I think it's the one you ran a few days ago.

At this point, I'm somewhere between "leftist retard"/"useful idiot to Tom Steyer" or someone like him, and maybe just FN. I don't see it as a Sudden Jihadi Syndrome from what little I can see.

I think that if he really wanted to get the big body count, he could have done the airplane attack. If he really wanted to get away, he could have.

I think we're being forced to conclude he wanted to do exactly what he did, and that we wanted to die doing it. Why? Who knows? Maybe he was an avowed leftist who wanted to be a hero for the cause.

What's that saying: "the hard thing about writing fiction is that it has to make sense. Reality doesn't"?

Signifying Nothing said...

Is the video from the hotel hidden in Jimmy Hoffa's tomb? So many question could be answered by watching Bond Sr's movements and more importantly who else was around.

Cavalryman40 said...

IT access

Welcome Black Carter said...

What an operation. This sheds light...

RSR said...

Good timeline read:

Shooting reports start around 10:08 and continues to 10:21. 11:21 swat blows door.

Anonymous said...

The brother is a criminal dirtbag too


Teshuvah said...

>>>This guy was far more likely a planted corpse than a mass murderer, and there's gotta be a metric f**kton of things TPTB know that they aren't passing along.

I agree with that. What are the odds they don't test his hands for powder residue. As for how to get the guns up there, is there no Service Elevator and rolling service cart? Pay off an employee or pretend to be an employee, take stuff up in the elevator. One trip.

The idea that he intensively planned all of this for months is opposite to the idea of him taking drugs and snapping. Obviously a psy-op in my view.

One report says he was trying to book a room over another concert with Lorde. She is liberal.. That may be smoke to cover up the anti-Trump concern. A report fro Australia says a Melbourne Antifa site said, "One of our comrades from our Las Vegas branch has made these fascist Trump supporters pay. "

Australian Hotel Guest Next Door To Las Vegas Shooter Saw ‘Multiple Gunmen’

Teshuvah said...

>>>The guy could have taken one of his planes and plowed into that crowd like ninepins, and he would've killed hundreds, outright.
But he didn't do that, did he?

Because they don't want to ban airplanes. They want to ban guns.

Conservative Views said...

I'd like to know what dirt he had on hillery.

DAN III said...


As you know there are, to this day, millions of Amerikans who still believe the .gov narrative that POTUS John F. Kennedy was killed by the alleged, lone shooter Lee H. Oswald.

The truth will NEVER come out on this latest conspiracy. Never.

The Gray Man said...

Seeing a few people saying that it was a setup. Basically that ISIS was going to buy guns from Paddock, Paddock being an FBI plant, and it was supposed to be a sting. ISIS dudes sniffed it out, killed Paddock, used the concert as a target of opportunity, and the FBI is covering it up. It's not my top theory, but it's making the rounds, and doesn't sound any less likely than the other scenarios.

Domo said...

Police were on scene in 7 minutes and sealed his floor within 12
A security guard had been shot at some point in there

Unbiased America

Domo said...

That's my uninformed opinion

He went to leave, shot at security, went back to his room and believing himself trapped, suicided.

Domo said...

Police were there in 12 minutes, the floor below in 5

Domo said...

And lvpd and city gov are cool with this?

Aesop said...

You realize I covered this in another post yesterday FFS, right?