Sunday, October 8, 2017

And The Derp Goes On And On...

I blame the last 50 years of public education in this country.
(Cut all public schoolteachers salaries 75%, and tie future increases to SAT scores.)

Derp said: ...most every army vet knows what a 300 yard shot is and has been trained to make them and they are not easy to be accurate and this guy was shooting 400 yards with no training and nothing anchoring the gun to keep it within a range from broken out windows ?
imo, even that packed crowd didn’t look to big from 400 yards. if he really had no training, there’d be bullets all over that area, not just hitting the crowd.
something aint right.

To Whomever It May Concern:
Stevie Fucking Wonder could have made the shots in this case, with an AR which had its sights adjusted with a claw hammer.

Anyone who keeps derping otherwise is just spanking their naked ass with a wooden paddle and announcing what a fucktard they are in front of God and everyone. If anything, I owe an apology to the derp-tarded from lumping you in with them.

From Paddock’s suite to the near corner of the festival at ground level was 320yds; the far corner at ground level was 511 yds. That’s straight slant line, figuring his height above ground as well as the flat line distance from the corner of the Mandalay Bay to the concert festival area.

He wasn’t trying to hit a target paper bullseye at those ranges, he was trying to hit anywhere inside the assembled crowd.

Playing with GoogleEarth basic mode gives us the size of the ground-level area between the bleacher VIP seating, from the concert stage to the light poles is 50 yds wide by nearly 300 feet deep. That’s a football field, FFS. All the way to the deepest area there is double the length, and the same width: a football field wide, and two in length. For those who only passed middle school Common Core math by taking off their shoes, that’s over two mother**king acres.

And I’m not even counting the packed bleacher area, just the infield.

If we add the bleachers in too, it’s twice as wide, or 4 acres of humanity.
With 20,000 or so people there.

Playing with the Federal Ballistics Calculator, and assuming shitty, lightweight XM-193 whitebox .223 ammo for maximum unreliability and worst sensitivity to wind, and throwing in a 50MPH crosswind (no way in hell there were 50MPH winds in Vegas that night, but I’m trying to rule out the monumental bag-of-hammers stupid fucktardery it takes to even ask this question), the bullet drop would be 25″ at the nearest corner, to 60″ at the deepest corner, and the wind-induced error would be 51″ at the near corner to 162″ at the deepest corner.

So if whatever fucktard shooting had let Ray Charles put his EOTech on, never zeroed it, and used a pipe wrench and rocks to adjust it, and he just aimed at the middle of a mass of 20,000 people, on bump-fire bursts, his CEP would be 10′ high and 30′ wide at the farthest range of engagement.

While shooting an area target of bystanders in the open that measured 150′ to 300′ wide by 600′ long. This is roughly as difficult as standing at ground level at the concert site, and shooting at the entire fucking wall of glass of the Mandalay Bay Hotel Tower and trying to hit it anywhere in the top half of a 43-story building that’s over 500 feet from one end to the other.

It would be harder to miss a barn while shooting from inside it than to miss hitting that crowd.

Jeezus Fucking Christ on a pogo stick, people, if anyone whose primary language is English can’t see what an easy marksmanship problem this is, get a crowbar and sledge hammer, and see if you can, with diligent application of both, pull your fucking head out of your ass. If necessary, ask a friend or neighbor for help.

And he only got 197 hits out of a crowd of 22,000, so his batting average was an abysmal .009, which is not even 1%.

Anybody who bats like he shot is referred to in any baseball league down to T-ball as the hot dog vendor, and in most states, their driver’s license would be a white-tipped cane and a bus pass.
If you think hitting a target the size of the WWII aircraft carrier Lexington

from 300-500 yards is hard with any rifle that actually has rifling, made any time since about 1860, the wonder is that you can manage to breathe without special glasses with the words “INHALE” and “EXHALE” etched on the lenses.

If that describes you in any way, please, put down the bong, and back away from the keyboard before you hurt yourself.


RSR said...

Somewhere between 1k and 2k shots fired into the crowd. At least half of those sent downrange before the crowd knew what was going on and began moving to exits/concealment. And only 197 bullet injuries?

The concert was on concrete (most likely) or asphalt. The shooter was shooting from an elevate position (he's not shooting over the head of enemy like is common in ground combat). So every round that misses should hit said concrete and ricochet, fragment, and/or cause concrete fragments as well.

For instance:

I highly doubt the 197 number separates fragments from complete bullets... So yet again, another thing (the bullet-related casualty numbers) that just doesn't add up. If pointing this out makes me a derp, then so be it.

Aesop said...

Facts are stubborn things.

I can't conjure bodies out of thin air, and the most recent tally was 197 GSW injuries, and something close to 400 injuries from FDGB and melee' tramplings as people attempted to un-ass the beaten zone from Mr. Mass Shooter.

And helping him out, for the first few bursts, folks just hunkered in place, which does nothing but let the rounds hit the person a few yards past you. What you want to do is get behind some effing solid cover ASAP, or at least behind view-blocking concealment. Not squat in the kill zone that's lit up like a football game.

Nonetheless, 99% of the people there weren't shot, and 97% of them were completely uninjured when it was over.


MMinWA said...

I've contended for many years that teacher's unions are doing the work of the devil & are Enemy # 1. None of the shit going down now from a $20T national debt to BLM/Antifa to this Diversity is our Strength crap would be getting any traction at all with a critical thinking enabled populace.

And don't get me going about how quickly Obama would have been laughed off the stage spouting his bullshit.

The market clearing price for a teacher is no where fucking close to the Golden Deal they have now. Plus the teacher's unions turn right around and refunnel more money(dues) back to the dems then any other source.

SiGraybeard said...

Again, very well said. These critics at best are used to thinking of shooting tiny groups at distance, not this. It's literally not "a bullet with your name on it" but more like "to whom it may concern".

I'm seeing a report on WRSA this morning that some guy says he was shot by someone in the crowd, with the obligatory crappy cell phone video that proves it. I sure don't see anything in it.

I can believe a ricochet, but saying it was someone in the crowd becomes like claiming any other shooting. You need good evidence.

loren said...

When I was young and well, dumb(er) I pumped 5, #6, 12 ga. rounds into a rising flock of ducks that were so think I could not see through them. Hit one duck with one pellet.
So yeah, flock shooting doesn't work and this dickheads average was pretty decent.

Anonymous said...

G-Damn Aesop when do you start your Podcast? You're much smarter and funnier than most the other 'casters wasting the webtubes out there. Seems like you're gettin' kinda famous too, don't let it go to your head and get more "reasonable" in the middle of the road sense... 2nd thought, that's not possible. Thanks for everything, a must read everyday.

Aesop said...

Moi? Famous?

I think the word you meant was infamous.

I was Deplorable before deplorable was cool.
Not likely to change, this side of hell freezing over.

RSR said...

Agreed, it's a good thing that so few were injured by GSW. But it suggests to me at least that many of those mags being dumped were directed elsewhere that was not at the crowd... Some reports have said (and no idea if they know the head from ass on this) that he shot through the curtains, so the fact that the concert lit up the crowd with stage lights after first couple mags would not matter. If shooting through curtains is true, that raises a whole other set of questions about his motive or perhaps might answer some... But if just shooting through curtains, why both with distance calculations on notepad in his room? Why bother having optics, including magnified, on the guns in the room? Why bother with premium weapons at all?
Circling around, point I am making about injuries is that most brand new shooters with any sort of consistently aimed fire should easily exceed current casualty numbers given circumstances (excepting only that running slidefires does take some practice for steadiness/rate of fire seen in Vegas -- but frankly aimed single shot semi-auto in that amount of time should or could exceed the ~200 casualty #s).

Also there are reports thaw when he drove back to Mesquite on Thursday to buy that Ruger bottom end bolt action, he spent part of Friday (29th) shooting in the desert in Mequite as well, before heading back to vegas (actual 25th checking vs LE alleged 28th -- also note the 28th checkin would mean he drove to Mesquite on the 28th to buy the Ruger American, drove back to vegas to checkin, and then drove back to Mesquite to shoot in the desert before coming back to Vegas again, which if not inefficient [counter to profile of shooter], it's at least manic...).
And if this were somehow a setup with shell cases not fired (like some have alleged in regards to carpet burns), the brass is then likely collected from desert and should have some sand/desert dirt inside the cases. Wonder if that's something that LE is even bothering to examine...

Steve Wynn also had an interesting interview (no doubt pulling from employees and whatever gambler data/marketing profiles the casino[es] had on him -- if you think Vegas casinos don't develop a profile on everyone walking in that door w/ all that tech, then your mistaken...):

RSR said...

Loren -- were all shots in the flock or some above, ahead, behind, etc? Also, were you shooting into a concrete wall behind the flock where every projectile became/created ~2.5 new fragments (like pumping 12.5 rounds in same timeframe rather than one...)?

Further, folks at that concert were quite literally packed like sardines. I truly don't know how it was possible to miss 99.99% of shots, especially after concrete ricochets and fragments are accounted for. Go to ~30 seconds on this video and give it some thought:

RSR said...

*Forgot the duck flock photo -- spacing between a relatively tight flock of ducks taking off in flight and those concert goers were/are quite different:

loren said...

Not really sure what point either of us are trying to make but whatever. I do know from experience that bump stocks are mostly noise makers. I'd guess that most of his shots were going somewhere else. Thankfully. Try one sometime and see how truly shitty they are.

Aesop said...

They aren't worthless when you're shooting at a target the size of an aircraft carrier, they just don't enhance accuracy.

If the guy had fired 100-200 aimed shots, he'd have killed twice as many people.
Assuming he'd first gotten some skillz in the first place.

This attack was more of a long-range shotgun effort.

RSR said...

Loren -- Point I was making was that a fairly static target with maybe 50% empty space at most (persons body area plus 1/2 -- generally at these types of concerts/festivals you have to throw elbows and take up personal space to avoid being crunched and right behind over 6' dudes is about the only place there is more space) vs a moving flock of ducks with 200-300% empty space (2-3 times as much empty space as duck body, including wings). Compound that with hard backstop that will redirect any "misses" back towards the targets with at least 2-3x multiples of original projectile number and the math doesn't add up, even if you assume he only got an abysmal 10% of shots on target...

RSR said...

*So it's well w/in margins of possibility that shooter was either not in fact primarily shooting at crowd (i.e., not shooting with intention to kill as many as possible for the full duration of fire), that something else was also being shot at that time, or if further damage/bullets are unable to be located in range of the Mandalay then blank cartridges might need be considered...

All of the above considering GSW data vs rounds fired suggest an objective different from first impressions...