From Over At SiG's Place...



It's easy to underestimate your opponent. But when a comedian/puppeteer has a better grasp on their fundamental nature than the entire DHS and Intelligence apparatus, you're paying the wrong people.

SiG, i.e. Silicon Graybeard, as he frequently does, had a post over at his place a couple/few days back that proved rather curiosity-inducing. Subsequently, CA over at WRSA linked to it as well. And I already did my work on it, and it's Saturday, so dammit, I'm getting my own (albeit piggy-backed) post out of it.

Fahad Hussain, the Danforth killer’s brother, has a long criminal history involving both drugs and guns. By court order, he lived with his family friend Maisum Ansari, his bail surety.

Fahad and Ansari had 42 kilograms of Carfentanil and 33 guns in the basement of Ansari’s home. Thirty of those guns were a single model of Glock pistol, still in their boxes.

[SiG:]That second paragraph pegs my "that's weird" scale.  I have no problem with someone having 33 guns, but thirty identical, New In Box, Glocks?  Starting a store or equipping a task force so everyone has the same hardware?  Still, despite the screams from Toronto's mayor, guns don't commit crimes, and except for (assuming Canada's laws resemble ours) the part about Hussain probably being prohibited from being around those guns, it's just an oddity.  The real eye-popper, though, was 42 kilograms of Carfentanil.  That's an insane amount.  How insane is it?

A dose of just 20 micro-grams, smaller than a poppy seed, is fatal to humans. With 1 billion micro-grams per kilogram (yes, Billion) it translates into 50 million fatal doses per kilogram.

Police seized 42 kilograms of Carfentanil, or 2.1 BILLION fatal doses, from the basement of Ansari’s home, the same home Fahad Hussain was removed from when he overdosed on a combination of cocaine, heroin and an unnamed substance.

What drug dealer can sell 2.1 billion doses of any drug, let alone one as lethal as Carfentanil?

 

RTWT.

My take:
42 kilos is still far too small to distribute in a commercial water system with any hope of success. Noting how many LDs it represents is like saying I could kill all of Canada with one shell of VX.
And equally meaningless, functionally.

Well, yes, I could, if I could get them all to lick it for me off popsicle sticks, in a conga line. Via any practical delivery system, not so much.

The reality is that 42 keys is the sort of thing you want to put in some handy spot in an air circulation system, like the A/C at the Mall of America, or any pro basketball arena during a game.

That would get you some serious casualties in a do-able manner.

All that leaves is figuring out how Mo and Achmed plan on getting to the roof of the WhatsisDome, putting it into the right spot(s), and then getting down again before all hell breaks loose. During the game. With everyone around outside watching it happen.

They might as well just rent or steal a cropduster and plan to fly a load over Main Street at Disneyworld at noon on a Saturday, or just use a backpack leafblower to dust down the sidewalks of NYFC from a moving vehicle at that point.

It also is a de facto WMD attack, we have a written national policy for that, and the current president, no longer a Muslim illegal alien, is quite likely to elect to pave Mecca in glass with a 2MT yield centered right over the Kaaba at noontime prayers, by way of explaining just exactly how out-of-bounds that sort of thing would be regarded.



Rock the Kaaba.
Smile for picture, wait for flash.

With the express understanding that Medina was now in the on-deck circle, and that after that, we'd be returning control of the Dome of the Rock to Israel (in powder form) by fuel air explosive in the unlikely case it took three times to drive the point well home.

After that it would be Carthage circa last five minutes of the Third Punic War, with the part of the Carthaginians being played by Team Mo.
We'd be talking human extinction event, and Islam would become about as popular as deodorant in France, and spoken aloud about as frequently as Esperanto.

This bunch of barely-literate f**ktards is, collectively, going to keep monkeying with the IED in the road until it does to their worldwide entire tribe of inbred goathumpers what it did to the five dumb@$$#$ on everyone's favorite Iraqi comedy video collection.



I just double-checked my metric math. (Someone should triple-check me.)
42 Keys is 2.1B (as in Billion) LD50 doses. Which sounds scary. Putting it in water?
Okay. To get a concentration of .02mg in an 8-oz serving (1 cup), you'd dilute it into 131M gallons of water, give or take.
Oh, and stir well.
That's 402 acre/feet.
That's 20 acres, twenty feet deep.
Drop it into 25 acres, or twenty acres 25 feet deep, or fail to distribute it absolutely evenly, and nothing happens. Or near enough to nothing as to make no difference.

And that's before we even get into inactivation by UV, filtration, and chemical treatment.

Let's say they cut to the chase, and pumped it into city water flow. Residential flow through a 1" service line at 50 psi is 47gpm. Back-pumping a slurry in to the system would take 5.8 years.
I can't swear the Mounties are that good, but I'm betting with a 5 year shot at catching you, they'd track down your operation long before you'd even made a few households dead, or even sick.

Sure, you could force more in faster, but you're back to titrating the dose enough to get the job done, so you'd probably kill a few people nearby, but downstream and an hour later, it'd wouldn't even be giving people a buzz, unless they were really old, or really young, or infirm.

It would be easier to use it to kill people with it if you froze it into ice blocks 2" around and six inches long, put them in a sock, and clubbed them over the head.
At which point, the carfentanil itself is completely superfluous.

So yeah, I'm going with air dispersion.
And at that, they'd probably kill twenty people, and get a lot more sick/buzzed, and then the panic evacuation would start before you'd distributed more than 10-20% of the load. Netting you zero subsequent effects.

If this stuff was any good at killing people except by accidental/incidental exposure, or salting heroin doses, we'd have been putting it into shells and bombs 60 years ago.

Just for more Fun With Math, the equivalent number of LD50 dozes of liquid Sarin or VX would fill nearly 5 C-5 Galaxy cargo aircraft.



The big one...in the back...with the nose flipped up? THAT's a C-5.

(Whether they could heft it aloft once filled I couldn't say, but that's how many cubic feet you'd need to tote the 1.1M gallons of nerve agent, or about 1/100th the amount of fluid to make Liquid Carfentanil Death. This is why the nerve agents were everyone's friend when it came time to pack nasty things into artillery shells long about 1917.)

The difference being, if you had even one gallon of Sarin, and no C-5 Galaxies handy, you could just put it in a standard O2 cylinder under normal operating pressure, rig an aerosol spray dispersion head to it, crack it open on the mezzanine at a convenient sports event right after the national anthem, let alone stuff it into the air handling system, and be assured of generating televised worldwide panic, and probably improving on the tally of all of 9/11 by a hefty margin, in about 20 minutes.

That's the difference between incidental exposure, and an actual weapon.

But, once again, you'd have to be brighter than the room-temp IQ of the average Team Mo member to get to that point.

And that they haven't done something like that suggests something even that simple is beyond their capabilities, because if they had the means, let alone the mental ability surpassing the brighter chimp species to manage that, they'd have been doing it for twenty years, at this point.

And of course, you'd also have to willing to take the resultant megatonage of hate sent back at you in about an hour after the deed, as previously noted.

So perhaps being as stupid, inept, and feeble as they are is a cruel trick of Darwinian survival instincts.