Saturday, August 11, 2018

From Over At SiG's Place...

It's easy to underestimate your opponent. But when a comedian/puppeteer has a better grasp on their fundamental nature than the entire DHS and Intelligence apparatus, you're paying the wrong people.

SiG, i.e. Silicon Graybeard, as he frequently does, had a post over at his place a couple/few days back that proved rather curiosity-inducing. Subsequently, CA over at WRSA linked to it as well. And I already did my work on it, and it's Saturday, so dammit, I'm getting my own (albeit piggy-backed) post out of it.
Fahad Hussain, the Danforth killer’s brother, has a long criminal history involving both drugs and guns. By court order, he lived with his family friend Maisum Ansari, his bail surety.

Fahad and Ansari had 42 kilograms of Carfentanil and 33 guns in the basement of Ansari’s home. Thirty of those guns were a single model of Glock pistol, still in their boxes.
[SiG:]That second paragraph pegs my "that's weird" scale.  I have no problem with someone having 33 guns, but thirty identical, New In Box, Glocks?  Starting a store or equipping a task force so everyone has the same hardware?  Still, despite the screams from Toronto's mayor, guns don't commit crimes, and except for (assuming Canada's laws resemble ours) the part about Hussain probably being prohibited from being around those guns, it's just an oddity.  The real eye-popper, though, was 42 kilograms of Carfentanil.  That's an insane amount.  How insane is it?
A dose of just 20 micro-grams, smaller than a poppy seed, is fatal to humans. With 1 billion micro-grams per kilogram (yes, Billion) it translates into 50 million fatal doses per kilogram.

Police seized 42 kilograms of Carfentanil, or 2.1 BILLION fatal doses, from the basement of Ansari’s home, the same home Fahad Hussain was removed from when he overdosed on a combination of cocaine, heroin and an unnamed substance.

What drug dealer can sell 2.1 billion doses of any drug, let alone one as lethal as Carfentanil?


My take:
42 kilos is still far too small to distribute in a commercial water system with any hope of success. Noting how many LDs it represents is like saying I could kill all of Canada with one shell of VX.
And equally meaningless, functionally.

Well, yes, I could, if I could get them all to lick it for me off popsicle sticks, in a conga line. Via any practical delivery system, not so much.

The reality is that 42 keys is the sort of thing you want to put in some handy spot in an air circulation system, like the A/C at the Mall of America, or any pro basketball arena during a game.

That would get you some serious casualties in a do-able manner.

All that leaves is figuring out how Mo and Achmed plan on getting to the roof of the WhatsisDome, putting it into the right spot(s), and then getting down again before all hell breaks loose. During the game. With everyone around outside watching it happen.

They might as well just rent or steal a cropduster and plan to fly a load over Main Street at Disneyworld at noon on a Saturday, or just use a backpack leafblower to dust down the sidewalks of NYFC from a moving vehicle at that point.

It also is a de facto WMD attack, we have a written national policy for that, and the current president, no longer a Muslim illegal alien, is quite likely to elect to pave Mecca in glass with a 2MT yield centered right over the Kaaba at noontime prayers, by way of explaining just exactly how out-of-bounds that sort of thing would be regarded.

Rock the Kaaba.
Smile for picture, wait for flash.

With the express understanding that Medina was now in the on-deck circle, and that after that, we'd be returning control of the Dome of the Rock to Israel (in powder form) by fuel air explosive in the unlikely case it took three times to drive the point well home.

After that it would be Carthage circa last five minutes of the Third Punic War, with the part of the Carthaginians being played by Team Mo.
We'd be talking human extinction event, and Islam would become about as popular as deodorant in France, and spoken aloud about as frequently as Esperanto.

This bunch of barely-literate f**ktards is, collectively, going to keep monkeying with the IED in the road until it does to their worldwide entire tribe of inbred goathumpers what it did to the five dumb@$$#$ on everyone's favorite Iraqi comedy video collection.

I just double-checked my metric math. (Someone should triple-check me.)
42 Keys is 2.1B (as in Billion) LD50 doses. Which sounds scary. Putting it in water?
Okay. To get a concentration of .02mg in an 8-oz serving (1 cup), you'd dilute it into 131M gallons of water, give or take.
Oh, and stir well.
That's 402 acre/feet.
That's 20 acres, twenty feet deep.
Drop it into 25 acres, or twenty acres 25 feet deep, or fail to distribute it absolutely evenly, and nothing happens. Or near enough to nothing as to make no difference.

And that's before we even get into inactivation by UV, filtration, and chemical treatment.

Let's say they cut to the chase, and pumped it into city water flow. Residential flow through a 1" service line at 50 psi is 47gpm. Back-pumping a slurry in to the system would take 5.8 years.
I can't swear the Mounties are that good, but I'm betting with a 5 year shot at catching you, they'd track down your operation long before you'd even made a few households dead, or even sick.

Sure, you could force more in faster, but you're back to titrating the dose enough to get the job done, so you'd probably kill a few people nearby, but downstream and an hour later, it'd wouldn't even be giving people a buzz, unless they were really old, or really young, or infirm.

It would be easier to use it to kill people with it if you froze it into ice blocks 2" around and six inches long, put them in a sock, and clubbed them over the head.
At which point, the carfentanil itself is completely superfluous.

So yeah, I'm going with air dispersion.
And at that, they'd probably kill twenty people, and get a lot more sick/buzzed, and then the panic evacuation would start before you'd distributed more than 10-20% of the load. Netting you zero subsequent effects.

If this stuff was any good at killing people except by accidental/incidental exposure, or salting heroin doses, we'd have been putting it into shells and bombs 60 years ago.

Just for more Fun With Math, the equivalent number of LD50 dozes of liquid Sarin or VX would fill nearly 5 C-5 Galaxy cargo aircraft.

The big the back...with the nose flipped up? THAT's a C-5.

(Whether they could heft it aloft once filled I couldn't say, but that's how many cubic feet you'd need to tote the 1.1M gallons of nerve agent, or about 1/100th the amount of fluid to make Liquid Carfentanil Death. This is why the nerve agents were everyone's friend when it came time to pack nasty things into artillery shells long about 1917.)

The difference being, if you had even one gallon of Sarin, and no C-5 Galaxies handy, you could just put it in a standard O2 cylinder under normal operating pressure, rig an aerosol spray dispersion head to it, crack it open on the mezzanine at a convenient sports event right after the national anthem, let alone stuff it into the air handling system, and be assured of generating televised worldwide panic, and probably improving on the tally of all of 9/11 by a hefty margin, in about 20 minutes.

That's the difference between incidental exposure, and an actual weapon.

But, once again, you'd have to be brighter than the room-temp IQ of the average Team Mo member to get to that point.

And that they haven't done something like that suggests something even that simple is beyond their capabilities, because if they had the means, let alone the mental ability surpassing the brighter chimp species to manage that, they'd have been doing it for twenty years, at this point.

And of course, you'd also have to willing to take the resultant megatonage of hate sent back at you in about an hour after the deed, as previously noted.

So perhaps being as stupid, inept, and feeble as they are is a cruel trick of Darwinian survival instincts.


Anonymous said...

Seems to me all the Boys in Black are wearing TSA rapist-gloves due to Fentanil's absorption rate...

If Carfentanil is much more potent, wouldn't sprinkling it on common objects a lot of people touch, like doorknobs, handrails, fruit at the Whole Foods, magazines at the corner newsstand and such cause mass panic?

Especially 30 armed couriers delivering a half-kilo each to 80-or-so seperate cells in different cities, planting it at the same time, coordinated by social media?

Might have to loosen my tin-foil hat, I get too many white-man-terrrist-thoughts running through my dome...

BigCountryExpat said...

OK: Aesop... Here in FL there have been NUMEROUS (27+ from my research since the beginning of the year) stating that AT LEAST 20 'First Responders' (i.e. fuzz, EMTs, firefighters.. what have you, the majority being cops) have been poisoned by Carfentanil or a Fentanyl type opioid. The Polk County and Hillsborough County sheriff's department have as STANDARD ISSUE a narcan shot equipped on their Basic Loadout... NOT for use on civvies, but IN CASE they "get hit" by a fentanyl product... For civvies they have ANOTHER bag for them... this's for their own protection, as frisking and searching suspects, we've had a couple of Deputies diggin in baggies to see 'whut-was-whut' ad go down within minutes from an O.D.... no fatalities thus far, but who knows?

It apparently does NOT take ONLY inhalation/ingestion, but b/c of potency and micro-size 'bitz n' pieces' are EASIER absorbed thru the dermis, esp. if the individual is NOT gloved and/or sweating profusely... (Here in FL thats a given at this time of year... open pores anyone?) Instant 'hit'... the more the dust, the quicker the death.

My point is that if this shit is THAT potent, forget the waterborne concept. 1 Kilo of prepared Carfentanil detonated in a trash can by an I.E.D. in a highly populated urban/compact A.O. (think business/financial district at 16:45 hours on say a Thursday.... keep the kafir of guard doncha know?),, the dust would cause MASSIVE casualties (between inhalation, never miNd the contact issue)

Essentially, 1 kilo blown the right way, at the right time could immobilize an economic A.U. The decontamination itself would take months, while the market sorts itself out.

Addendum: Ever notice these pricks go for second rate targets durin a 'practice run?" Kenya and Mozambique embassy strikes were done to see if they could do a joint multidistant attack. I worked...

I think this run was test IMO... just saying

Aesop said...

Such an attack would cause maybe ten or twenty casualties, and about 80 panicked but unharmed dolts.

Decon would take about half an hour, with fire hoses, and maybe some bleach slurry, exactly as it would be done.
VX et al are far more potent, and persistent, than garage-brew opiates, and the means and methods of decon for that have been around for fifty years.

Somebody sprinkling shit in public would work once or twice, then after that anybody even putting talcum powder on their feet in public would be beaten to death with tire irons on the spot. Problem solved.

(Don't believe me: look what happened to the few lunatics who tried to open doors in flight after 9/11. At least one of them was literally smothered by the dog pile delivered by accountants and schoolteachers.)

Carfentanil is a problem - and a very minor one - because unaware people are coming into contact with it.

I've been wearing latex and nitrile gloves for decades pretty much 12 hrs/day, because of a rather weak and fragile virus. Firefighters have been wearing SCBA for decades before that, mainly for things that take decades to kill you right.

The pre-hospital EMS and esp. LE crowd is just late to the party.
FFS, I had to school Border Patrol agents on gloves and N95 masks in 2005, despite TB being a thing since...shit, ever, when we called it "consumption".

No offense to them, but street-smart as they are, most cops don't have Ph.D.s, if you know what I mean, and it doesn't help when agencies actively weed out the actual smart applicants, on purpose. (Google it.)

Carfentanil is a nuisance-level problem, not a strategic kill-shot.
That doesn't mean that if you're the one who puts your foot into the punji pit, it isn't serious for you, but your problem is not the world's problem.

Shit-dipped and sharpened bamboo stakes did not undo the entire US Army in Vietnam, and carfentanil, even 42 kilos of it, is not Godzilla rising out of Tokyo Bay.

This is why the horror genre bores the shit out of me, from A to Z.

Horror IRL looks like Monster Squad: a couple of teenagers with a .44, a crossbow, and a .44 magnum, kick the monsters' asses in about 90 minutes. Game over.

Team Mo's big move here is the equivalent of jihadi dorm pranks, where "Hey, what if we put a kilo of carfentanil in a wastebasket over the door to the gym locker room! And put it in the sugar bowls at the dining commons!"

Great idea, Achmed; give that one a try.

Comedic hijinks follow. Followed by the football team dragging his ass behind a Chevy chained by your balls for a couple of miles, then putting what's left into a coffee can, tamping it down with an 8-lb. sledgehammer, and shooting out of the old cannon at the city park. Game over.

TBoone said...

Aesop. Another great post. Thanks for doing our "math" (or should that be "kinda meth" homework. I have only recently heard of carfentanyl. Apparently its been around awhile.

Your knowledge & experience cut to the chase. Passing thru the 'bonehead' like a laser thru margarine.

Anonymous said...

These guys are just the low hanging fruit. Wait for the first team. How will the economy be when six or eight teams, loaded with six or eight MANPADS each bring down loaded airliners in different cities at the same time? With no border control how hard will it be to pull that off? Will the fedgov even want to stop them if they learn about it in advance? No safe air travel will sink us. Then its game over. Remember "never let a crisis go to waste".

Aesop said...

So far, they're all low-hanging fruit.
If they had access to eight MANPADS, they'd have fired off seven of them. That's how they roll.
We lost air travel for weeks after 9/11.
It was hard on the airlines, but the world didn't lose it's shit, and the economy didn't crater.
The knowledge would be out there that they cannot make them from scratch, their supply is finite, and it was just a temporary problem.
We would sooner make ghost towns of flight approach corridors to airports than surrender air travel, and in the interim, we'd round all of Team Mo up and send them to desert camps. There's precedent for that, too.

If my choice is between air travel, or the residential wishes of 6M immigrants who never should have been admitted here, I'll let immigration courts under this administration sort that choice out.

It'd be hard on the countries in Trashcanistan and Greater Shitholia. Elsewhere they'd probably just retrofit mil-spec countermeasures on civilian airliners, and that would be the end of that. We'd be flying again essentially care-free in a week or two, and enforcement of the no-missile-shooting rules would be by AC-130s circling major airports in this country.

And if a nation-state source for the MANPADs was discovered, our reply would arrive via B-2 and B-52. It gets a lot less funny all around after that.

The Gray Man said...

We had some PD officers recently in my area go to the hospital after coming into contact with a surface that had carfentanil on it. None died but 3 of the 6 were pretty sick for a while.

If the guys who had the keys of carfentanil were really feeling lazy, they could just walk around with the stuff in a container and use a brush to apply it to surfaces when no one is looking. It wouldn't take that much gray matter to get that done without getting caught immediately.

Aesop said...

Like I said, that would work...once. And get you maybe ten-twenty casualties, probably not even fatal for the most part.
You'd do as well sneezing on salad at the salad bar.

After that, anyone spreading powder in public would be cheerfully beaten to death with tire irons or gunned down by CCW holders on the spot, in 110% of all cases.

"If you see something, kill something." would become national policy in 0.2 seconds, from Bangor to Baja.