Saturday, September 9, 2017

How Bad It's Liable To Be

So out of disinterested (from 3000 miles away) curiosity about the details, I pulled up a random 7.5 minute topo of Florida's west (Gulf-side) coast, in this case, the Ft. Meyers SW grid.

free pdf online link

Unlike some topos, where the elevation stadia are 40-ft increments, FL's on the USGS map for this region are measured in 5-ft increments.

I knew FL was low-lying, but I didn't know just how low-lying.
We're talking Netherlands-low low-lying. Nawlins 9th Ward low-lying. Damn near Death Valley low-lying.

There is no spot on the entire map topo above 10' over sea level.

(For comparison, here in SoCal, the beachside parking lot, right beside the beach is more than 10' above sea level. The seaside docks inside the the Port of Long Beach/San Pedro breakwater, FFS, are higher than 10' ASL. Where I live, a short drive away, I'm already several hundred feet higher than that, higher than the highest point in the entire state of FL, which is 305 feet, up in the panhandle. In FL, altitude-wise, my avg. daily commute would require a set of wings and a private pilot's license.)

The predicted storm surge for the danger area is currently at least 10'. The total range predicted is 5-20'.

Everything on this map in gray or red is land less than 10' in elevation:

IOW, where most of the people live.

If Irma hugs the western side as forecast, pretty much the entire southern half of the west coast of FL is toast, from Saturday night into Monday afternoon.
And that's just storm surge, before a foot+ (6-20+ inches per NOAA forecast) of continuous rainfall for a day and a half is factored in. 

Just a warm up.
Looks like Irma will be biblical.

If you live in FL, I hope a few millions of your friends and neighbors did indeed GTFO.

If not, and you live in Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, Mississippi, Georgia, or South Carolina, and you have a boat and trailer, you might want to think about heading south early next week, after you stock up.

FL isn't going to need the Cajun Navy.
They're going to need the entire Redneck Fleet.

This is going to make Dunkirk look like a pool party.

God help those people that stayed.


Irish said...

I guess you can't get too much more dire than this warning:

'It's Not Clear That It's a Survivable Situation ... in the Keys': Officials Issue Stern Warnings as Hurricane Irma Threatens Florida

As precious preparation time ticked away and Hurricane Irma inched closer to Florida, officials and meteorologists used very serious wording to describe the expected threat from the monster storm.

"It's not clear that it's a survivable situation for anybody that is still there in the Keys," Ed Rappaport, acting director for the National Hurricane Center, told WSVN-TV.

Anonymous said...

Anyone still in the Keys probably just commited suicide. It's funny how people can be so stubborn that it kills them, literally.
We have know it all family in Gainesville who are going to ride it out, as well as an elderly relative on Lake Okeechobee who refuses to leave.
The worst part is they're all pilots with planes that could fly out of the danger area.
God help them.