Wednesday, February 26, 2020

What Next?

If you missed it, read yesterday's post of CDC warnings.

If there are mass quarantines in effect at some point, you're going to need some things.
Some of them you know, and some of them you probably haven't made provision for.

1) Water
One gal/person/day, minimum.
If you're planning on city water continuing to flow, of luck there.
Hope ain't a plan.
Three days without water, and your kidneys will begin to shut down.

2) Food
Figure out a menu for a month. Focus on variety, and calories, ideally of easy-to-prepare food.
Now get to where you have six to twelve months' worth on hand.
If you're planning on the .Gov handing out MREs, of luck there.
Hope ain't a plan.

3) Rx and OTC meds.
Your pharmacy probably won't be open, and you may need to care for yourself and/or family members.
For any conditions you already have, and possibly also Kung Flu.

4) Lights and Heat/AC
If water stops, what makes you think power, gas, etc. will still continue?

5) Banking and cash reserves
Your landlord or bank is still going to expect you to make rent/mortgage payments.
Ditto for property taxes. Trash or utility bills. Any other regular payments.
Whether banks are still operational is an open question. Options, and a cash reserve float, would be prudent. Doubly so if this becomes you not going to work for an extended period, non-voluntarily.

6) Your home version of 9-1-1.
Protection from stupid people, because you've got something they didn't plan to have.
I don't care if, for you, that's a big dog, a baseball bat, a loaded .45, or prayer beads.
People are stupid now, pre-panic.
Think hurricane, that lasts months, here.
Imagine your stupidest near-neighbor, two months into being hungry every day.

Hopefully, nothing gets this bad, or lasts for very long.
But it might. And stay-at-home quarantines are what CDC is talking about when they talk about "community mitigation measures" and "tele-schooling, and tele-working".
And yet again, hope ain't a plan.

Notice I said nothing about isolation gear.
That's because
a) you won't have enough, ever
b) playing outside in a pandemic is about as bright as playing on the highway
c) the results are likely to be rather similar
Stay inside means stay inside.
If you live on acreage, don't leave the property. No one else in or out.)
Going out and about is simply rolling the dice with catching something you didn't have, until you got stupid.
Don't do that.

Someone really smart would start doing an inventory, and see where they're short, then start backfilling those holes in their abilities. That way you're the solution, and not part of the problem, if/when this becomes a thing.

And if it never does, nothing on this list goes bad overnight, and solves 99% of your problems in every other disaster/problem you're likely to face.

It's also too late to shop when they announce things are shutting down now, like they will, with barricades and check points already up.

So decide whether you'd rather be a month early, or five minutes too late.
You only get one chance to make that choice, and it's now.


Anonymous said...

Short list of OTC meds to stock up on? Beyond Advil/Tylenol and hydrating fluids (Gatorade) and I run out of ideas.
Opie Odd

Tucanae Services said...

First about the post itself == "Cut!, Print!, That's a wrap folks.". The most sensible suggestions that few of the unwashed will follow of course.

But I do seek advise. I sit on small acreage homestead with livestock. I have no choice but expose myself outside to feed them. Fully acknowledge there is no way to operate like a class 4 containment facility. So is there a manageable protocol that would lessen the chance of transmission before reentering the residence?

nick flandrey said...

Stay away from people. This virus so far only travels on droplets (and other bodily fluids.)

Stay away from things people touch, or get wet.

That should be enough.


Rshanks said...

You do realize the Dr. Nancy Messonnier who is the director of the CDC’s national center for immunization and respiratory diseases, who made the announcement is the sister of Rod Rosenstein.
Couldn't be any misdirection here could there.
These people will stop at nothing to stop our President Trump.
Lying is just normal for them.
Think For yourselves, this is the deep state working against the rest of us.

Just saying

ThatWouldBeTelling said...

Rshanks: What is Messonnier saying that's not believed to be true, or would make an external to the CDC political difference in a few days or weeks? See here for more on what might be going on.

In reference to staying out of the hospital, now is a time to defer any activity you can that might require an emergency room trip. Non-urgent not relevant to COVID-19 home improvements can wait.

Ominous Cowherd said...

I'm interested to hear Aesop's answer on OTC meds.

I like to keep some benedryl on hand, some loperamide, some light salt (50% potassium chloride, 50% sodium chorlide) for home made gatoraide, something like dayquil and niquil, aspirin and several flavors of NSAIDs, several kilograms of vitamin C, a few hypodermic needles - there is nothing more effective for digging out splinters - plenty of sodium chloride, a gallon jug of betadine.

nick flandrey said...

Aw man, someone I read regularly posted a pretty good list. I remember it has guaifenesin in it, but I can't find the post.

Wasn't Aesop, his only post with guaifenesin in it was

Which is full of good advice btw.

I'm headed out so hopefully someone else will find a good list.


(I've got two kids in elementary school. My cabinet already looks like a pharmacy, but I'm STILL hitting costco today.) Just walk the aisle and fill your basket...

Anonymous said...

Hope is not a plan. Hoping that corona virus is just a flu is ignoring known facts. As old remus says "Advoid Crowds" Wash your hands, when in doubt wash your hands. If China's Ruling Party suspects we did it expect blow back.

I checked Wal-Mart this morning before NPR and local newpaper reported that CDC warning. Nothing unusual. Maybe I will check again this afternoon for changes.

Remember Black Friday? This will look sane in comparison.

Hope is not a plan.

Rshanks said...

That would be telling: Believed by whom?
Have you not seen the lengths the deep state (DC Swamp) will go to to destroy our country.
If you do not, then you are likely part of the problem.
Everyone should already be prepared for whatever comes our way.
This is to produce a panic and attempt to harm the Trump Presidency

Ominous Cowherd said...

`` If China's Ruling Party suspects we did it expect blow back.''

If they think we did it, they'll call it an accident to avoid looking weak and vulnerable. If they know it's their own damn fault, they'll blame us, to avoid looking weak and stupid.

So far, it looks as if they know they did it, since we're seeing talk there about being more careful in the bio-warfare labs, and since they are blaming us.

nick flandrey said...

"Everyone should already be prepared for whatever comes our way."

--while that would be great, it is demonstrably not reality. Even though .gov preparedness surveys have been showing an increase in general preparedness, the results are vague enough to cover having a couple of cans of chef boyardee and a flat of bottled water and calling that "prepared."

--I don't even want to hazard a guess, but even most relatively serious preppers probably don't have 6 months of 'don't leave the house' stuff stacked. Certainly anyone doing it for less than a couple of years won't.

--or they've got 6 months of ketchup, but no tampons....

--there are a couple of lines I'd guess most "preppers" aren't even ready to cross because of what is says about their outlook. One is stocking antibiotics, the other is adding stuff like nursing, surgery, and obstetrics books to their "rebuild society" library. (or even admitting to having that library. Bonus points if the books are in sealed buckets.)

I hope everyone here is prepped up, but there is always something more to get, and good lists and discussion help with that process. Take it or leave it, Aesop's not charging for the advice....


Anonymous said...

Thanks for posting. I forgot the jello.
Opie Odd

Ominous Cowherd said...

In my little list above, I forgot to mention saturated solution of potassium iodide. A few drops of that in a glass of water once a day goes a long way to loosen up an unproductive cough. Don't do that more than three or four days in a row - too much iodine isn't a plus.

Aesop said...

1) Spare me the Deep State/Black Helicopter conspiracy bullshit.
Government is incompetent. That, alone, explains 99.98% of everything they do.
EVERYTHING. Then remember that incompetence when you start thinking they're going to low crawl up your driveway and buttf**k you with Kung Flu. If you handed them a 2-shot derringer, they'd shoot themselves in both feet. Yes, they'll blame Trump for everything, including toenail fungus, low tide, and sunrise. But once they've shot that wad, that's about all they can manage. Maybe you saw how both Mueller and impeachment worked out for them? So stop trying to make castle out of horse dung. Remember they're idiots, and plan accordingly.

2) OTC meds?
This advice from seven years ago hasn't changed much:
For URI/colds/flu, I'd add cough syrup, expectorant, and throat lozenges for comfort. Robitussin DM and Hall's are my go-tos there.

agent_buzz said...

To those asking/posting about meds to keep at home, if you can lay hands on some prednisone, keep it in the fridge. My brother's friend died of pneumonia couple of years ago. Doctors said if only he had started prednisone one or two days earlier, he would have lived. Prednisone is AKA prednisolone, and is a form of cortisone.

Reltney McFee said...

"For URI/colds/flu, I'd add cough syrup, expectorant, and throat lozenges for comfort. Robitussin DM and Hall's are my go-tos there."

For myself, I substitute hard candy for throat lozenges.

Most of the coughing I see in clinic (a midlevel provider) is associated with/due to post nasal drip. It you can thwart the post nasal drip, you short circuit (so to speak) the throat irritation caused by the drip, which elicits the cough.

So, MY go to is Claritin or Zyrtec and Flonase or Nasonex or Nasocort. (well, actually, the generic equivalents. Generics hereabouts run around $10, the BRAND, $20-$40), Add in drink plenty of fluids and inhale steam (think shower) or mist (cool mist vaporizer), and you cut back the cough considerably.

If you WANT cough syrup, or expectorant, ROWYBS. If you find it helpful, even better. However, nearly everybody I see for cough and suchlike, HAS been taking guaifenesin (commonly as "Mucinex"), and yet still come to my clinic to see me.

Simply my observations. YMMV. Not for deposit of mail. For external use only. Objects in mirror are closer than they appear. I'm not a real doctor: I simply play one on on TV.

Consult with your own health care provider for medical advice pertinent to your own unique circumstances.

Sherm said...

My wife was is Walmart today stocking up on canned goods. We had a purge of expired items recently. She reported the first crowd, albeit small, she's ever seen in a canned goods section. Note, this is a woman who keeps six months of dog food on hand, just in case. Looks like I may have to fill up the two 160 gallon water barrels I have stacked in the garage.

Warthog said...

Don't throw out good advice just because its source is questionable. For what ever the reason, you won't care WHY when the SHTF.

Anonymous said...

Well, that escalated quickly. It's now on the East Coast and according to the article at the link, THEY DON'T KNOW HOW IT GOT THERE.


Anonymous said...

Still waiting for an 'ethnic' breakdown on fatalities, and cases, outside of MaoMart

Are infected and fatalities East Oriental predominantly ? exclusively ?

Epidemiologically-minded wanna know

Anonymous said...

I'm with Anon 12:28 - What is the ETHNIC breakdown? Globalists and communists have utterly ruined the English language to the point we're struggling to exchange meaningful information. Italian or "Italian"? Having never been to Italy nor interested in their internal politics I was unaware they have a very large racially Chinese population. I see plenty of Australian / Aussie in our media but when the MSM show us photo's you'd be choosing them to star in a Kung-Fu film not a remake of Gallipoli. Repeat for the whole 'effin world.

Apparently the WHO won't call it a Pandemic because there are some very wealthy & powerful people that would lose a lot of money if the WHO uses that word. ( I don't understand it but it was a zero hedge article)

Anonymous said...

What does ROWYBS mean?

Hope@ZeroKelvin -Proud Deplorable said...

I watched part of the Senate briefing on the COVID-19 and was struck by the complete lack of anybody going through the numbers about this virus. The acting head of DHS could not answer how many ventilators were available in the US, for example.

Here’s the math – admittedly back of the envelope and rounded off for simplicity’s sake.

There are 931,000 hospital beds in the US, this includes adult and pediatric units. An available bed must be 1) actually empty, 2) staffed with nurses and physicians, 3) clean/disinfected. (It is amazing how difficult that is to actually tally over a given shift in a given hospital.)

There are 93,955 ICU beds in the US, divided among surgical, medical and neurological units. These beds are ventilator capable but there might not be an actual ventilator in the room.

The national ventilator survey in 2010 showed a total of 62,274 full feature ventilators with 22,485 pediatric capable. (I could not find a more current number outside of financial reports behind a paywall.)

A study in 2013 indicated that ICUs had a bed occupancy of 57-82% with 20-38% of the patients on ventilators. My experience in the Houston metroplex for the last 25 years is 100% occupancy (with patients waiting in the ER) with 50% containing ventilated patients. This is pre-COVID-19.

There are approximately 20,000 of these intensivists in the country – these doctors are trained in internal medicine, pulmonology or anesthesia and have received further training in ICU care.

There are approximately 2.85 million RNs in the US, I don’t have a breakdown for ICU nurses, but I doubt that that is more than 1-2% of all nurses, so 2,850 to 5,700 ICU nurses.

Recall that there are currently 1,700 infected doctors/nurses in Wuhan alone, so there will be less available healthcare workers.

While the true natural history of COVID-19 are not clear, the CDC is estimating that 60% of the world will be infected if the outbreak is not stopped.

In the US, that is 198,000,000 infected in the US alone. 80% will have a mild illness and not need medical care. 20% may be sick enough to seek care in an ER, that works out to 39.6 million ER visits in a very short time. For a sense of scale, there are 13 – 19 million ER visits in a given flu season out of a background of approximately 40 million ER visits annually for everything else.

That 39.6 million ER visits may be a low number as people panic and come to the ER without COVID19 but have flu like symptoms.

Hospitals, prisons and cruise ships have shown very high transmission rates, as high as 40%. This means that uninfected people in the hospital, that are already sick and frail, are going to be infected and likely end up in an ICU.

If only 10% of the ER visits are sick enough to need a hospital bed, that works out to 3.96 million patients needing admission for 7-10 days. Remember we have 931K hospital beds TOTAL in the USA.

Assuming 3-5% are sick enough to need the ICU, from the total number of infected that end up admitted (the 3.96 million above), that is 118,800 to 198,000 patients that will need to be ventilated. Remember that we only have 93,955 ICU beds and 62,274 ventilators in the entire US and they are currently full of other patients.

Also factor in the problems of ICU/ventilator care with everybody in hazmat suits, the cost and medical waste generated that must be disposed of.

Of these ventilated patients, 60% die, so that is 71,280 to 118,800 dead of COVID-19 alone.
I am not factoring in the 2nd and 3rd order effects on morbidity/mortality as medical resources are diverted to care for the COVID-19 patients, the disruptions in medical supplies, loss of healthcare workers to infection, economic impact and so it goes.

This is also on top of a healthcare system that is in basic freefall as it is.

So, I think this might be a very big deal indeed if the current numbers hold up.

Warthog said...

Rock on With Your Bad Self

Rshanks said...

To Aesop,
since I have been informed by "That would be telling" that I am apparently "Too Stupid to Live" or according to him you would call me a Gilligan.
Typical of your ilk to immediately start name calling.
Having been informed of my condition I guess I will go down the hill and crawl into a cave to die, the stench will be great.
Enjoy your superiority.

Ominous Cowherd said...

One other item that doesn't require a prescription is an oxygen bottle and regulator. Your local welding shop has both, usually sells a package deal that includes hoses, regulators, torch and acetylene.

Old NFO said...

Good advice, as usual. Thanks!

Roger said...

Okay Aesop, Here I sit, 76 Years of experience. With stock of N 95 & 99 masks, latex or poly gloves, a months worth of food and a reasonable supply of ammunition.
Things I NEED to know."
1, How long will the virus exist in open air, after some unfortunate has sneezed?
2, Will soap and water kill the little bastards? Showering after a trip to the drugstore? What if any soap or cleaning agent for normal people should be used?
3, Will local water supplies, (municipal, chlorinated etc) be reasonably free of the virus? If not, what will kill it? Boiling, salt, A few drops of Chlorox / gallon?
4, Any suggestions from someone that knows a hell of a lot more than me???

Annabel Lee said...

Rod Dreher’s column contains very informative comments about covid19. He quotes a doctor who is married to a Chinese woman.

Anonymous said...

Hey Cowherd,
Welding oxygen is NOT/NOT Medical oxygen. Yes, I've seen it used as such in a third-world country but that didn't mean then and doesn't mean now that it's a good idea
Boat Guy

Anonymous said...

Check this out. If you go to her blog to disagree, please be nice.

Charles said...

If 198 million in the US are infected and less than 120,000 die from it, that would make the effective death rate .06%, which is not even close to the 2% rate being experienced in China. Also, if 60% is the expected rate of infection, would that not mean about 700+ million Chinese should become infected. While I do not trust China’s numbers concerning number of infected and deaths, I think if over half of China’s population caught this thing, we would have seen much more disruption there than we have.

Anonymous said...

Here is a checklist a guy made, he gave permission to re-post:

Aesop said...

@ Charles,

If 198M people were infected by common annual flu, you could expect 198,000 to die from it.
This is not the flu.
The death numbers for 198M from coronavirus would probably be somewhere approaching 6M people. Just from the virus.

For reference, in an average year in the U.S., 2.6M people die of all causes combined, from heart attacks to shootings to drunk driving accidents to getting squashed by tipped over vending machines to old age.

This would quadruple that in one year.

And when last I looked, China had over 400M people on house arrest, a number greater than the entire population of the U.S.

So, how much disruption were you looking for before you figure this is a big deal?

Aesop said...


1) From seconds, up to 10 minutes. It's a parabolic curve.
2) Soap and water, per se, kills next to nothing, it removes things and washes them down the drain. Hot enough water may kill some, incidental to washing.
3) Normal washing suffices for cleaning clothes. You don't need to be surgically sterile. Most virucidal agents will sterilize things adequately, including weak bleach solutions, or commercial wipes, isopropyl alcohol, etc., for the few things (shoe soles, personal items) you might be worried about. Local water supplies, under normal operations, will be potable, and virus-free, as they're usually chlorinated and UV-exposed, etc.. Check with your muni supplier on their process if unsure.
4) At some point, stop leaving your house. You may not be given a choice about this by TPTB. That point will likely be long after the horse has left the barn.

Rule of Thumb: coughing among people is going to become the new Drunk In Public, with a side-order of Black Death, socially.
If someone is, expect them to be literally bum-rushed the hell out and away from people, possibly with some ardor and community violence. I mean that. Noses will get punched, and eyes will get blackened, until people catch on.

This will stop being funny when people start dying.
Then the torches and pitchforks come out.

5) Wash. Your. Hands.
Most epidemics happen because you touch an infected object (doorknob, shopping cart, etc.) and then touch your mouth, nose, eyes, etc., or shove food in your maw.
that's how you get the common cold. The flu. Gastroenteritis. Etc.
Stop doing that.
Wash. Your. Hands. Before you touch yourself or feed yourself.
Kids (under age 25, at which point common sense grows in) are the lion's share of this problem, which is how epidemics propagate from September until summer recess, and peak from Thanksgiving to Easter, and multiple generations gather inside cramped houses and share everything, including swapping spit, literally.

That eliminates about 97% of the problem.

The rest is being coughed/sneezed on by infected people.

If you're not out in that, you don't get it.

It isn't going to blow in your window and ass-rape you.


Ominous Cowherd said...

Boat guy, you are right that welding oxygen is not medical grade.

Next time I fill up at Air Liquide, I'll ask them what's the difference. I suspect the answer is going to be that thay're more careful not to fill the cylinder with the wrong gas.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the definition, Warthog.


John Wilder said...

There isn't a second prize.

Aesop said...

@Ominous Cowherd,

They filter the hell out of medical grade oxygen, to remove oil, particulates, water, and everything else. None of which works well with your lungs. (Think aspiration pneumonia.)

Using it in a large room instead solves that problem, but it also makes everything in that room a fire looking for a spark.
{cf. Apollo 1}

Welding oxygen is for welding for good reasons.
If you want to filter it through an oil filter and a HEPA filter, you might could get away with it, but if you already have a HEPA filter...?

Anonymous said...

Can't vote in Nov if the "USSA"is full blown infected...........

Reltney McFee said...

Your envelope sounds accurate, to an order of magnitude.

Your assessment of demand:supply mismatch sounds about right.

Hell, in my experience, sounds about right, again, to accuracy of about an order of magnitude.

Spicy times, if it plays out as it might.

The Kansas Infidel said...

POTUS presser yesterday was worthless. He didn't give 1 example of how they've kept us safe, just kept saying they're doing an amazing job. M3 (mainstream media moguls) didn't press him for any concrete examples of what steps the gubberment has taken to keep up safe - because they're stupid as Aesop has pointed out numerous times. Contrary to what POTUS said about banning flights, my son has 3 coworkers that traveled together to Singapore, Japan and S. Korea and just flew straight back into the states yesterday. We're considering them all to be carriers.

The Kansas Infidel said...

I heard a nurse call into talk radio 2 nights ago as I was out stocking up. She claimed to have a BS in microbiology and was claiming that this isn't any different than the other Kung Flus that we experience every year. (anyone notice that every flu in the last 10 yrs has originated in China?) The host was sharp enough to ask her if this is like every other flu, why has it shut China's manufacturing, schools, and economy? She had no response to that! Beware people with a little medical and/or biology training who think they're doctors or experts.

Anonymous said...

Maybe China just wanted to eliminate a few thousand undesirables. The flu was just cover.

Anonymous said...

@Kansas Infidel: no official pressers are going to have any value until the horse is out of the barn and about 100 miles down the road. It is/will be all designed to try to keep people calm. Also, beware of people who think they are or may even be recognized as 'experts'. Think the George Carlin bit about being full of shit. Use your G2 and BS filter and maybe some of the talking heads will turn out to be credible. Also, pay very close attention to what is NOT said.

China used hard censorship. Here it is the soft variety. Up until last night the local news didn't even mention Kung Flu. Coverage on the national (this is all on NBC) has been spotty to say the least. Suddenly last night it was the headline and about 30% of the program.

Methinks the .gov et al were trying to use hope as a plan and finally realized that plan was failing.

Aesop said...

@ Hope@ZeroKelvin and Reltney,

15M seriously infected people trying to get into 93K ICU beds and 930K regular hospital beds isn't going to work.

All health care will collapse long before then, and we'll be on a Chinese lockdown, indefinitely.

A Texan said...

@Anonymous 9:37

"Methinks the .gov et al were trying to use hope as a plan and finally realized that plan was failing."
That's about right. While I like Trump and a lot of the things that he's done, on this issue I think that he wasn't given all of the information (and may still not have it). That's not even counting the fact that probably NO ONE on the entire planet has a complete picture of this "novel" coronavirus, because it is, well, NOVEL, IOW new.

IMHO, when the CDC gets around to telling you that you have a problem with a disease, it is a VERY big problem, and beyond their ability to do much about. This thing is all over the place, is highly communicable (which is exactly WHY it is all over the place), is serious enough to kill about 20-30 times as much as the common (i.e. not Spanish, from 100 years ago) flu, and we have no vaccine or cure that works reliably. I personally think that they are pretty panicked right now, and trying not to show it, because the Kung Flu is likely (again, IMHO) to infect at least 10% - 20% of the population before another couple of months go by.

FYI, the Japanese just closed ALL of their public schools, leaving something like 13 million kids stuck at home until the end of their spring break.

FWIW, my 82-year-old mother has been in the hospital for nearly 2 weeks, at lease a week and a half of which is due to the flu that she caught there, and has left her weaker than I've ever seen her. I hope that she can GTFO before long, so that I can begin to help her build up her immune system with loads of C, D, Zinc and multiple doses of Sambucol per day. That, and lots of sleep. I want her to survive this year and well beyond, but if she's stuck in a petri dish, err, hospital, that isn't too likely.

chewbacca said...

Things take time