Thursday, February 27, 2020

My End Of The Stick


















1) Orange County declared a health emergency yesterday. I have no wild idea what that means, and I've worked health care here for 20 years, including about 2/3rds of the E.R.s in the county. Best guess, it simply means TPTB in the county have officially freaked the f**k out about the slow roll out of Kung Flu we've been covering here for over a month, and which we warned our own hospital management about, in detail, over two weeks ago was going to put a serious cramp in our ability to treat patients, indefinitely, even if we never had to treat a single case of Kung Flu in person.



2) Observe the picture above this post. That's at the hospital with the largest ED in the county, 50+ beds. It's the second busiest ED in CA, most years, at over 120K visits/yr.
I have some wee experience inside that ER. So what's wrong with that pic?
Look at the sign.
English. Spanish. Nifty.

But.
OC has a yuuuuuuuuuuge Asian population.
Garbage Garden Grove and Westminster were selected to receive Vietnamese refugees and boat people in 1975. There are now miles-long sections of the main boulevards where you can drive for miles and not see a single English sign. There is also a huge Loatian and Cambodian sub-community there and in adjacent cities.
Anaheim has Chinese in small mountains, both Mandarin-speaking from Beijing and the hinterlands, and Cantonese-speaking from the teeming coastal cities like Shanghai and Hong Kong. (What? You didn't know "Chinese" isn't a language? That there are ten major dialect groups , and that they are mutually unintelligible to each other with a hundred miles of distance, all across China? You're as smart as most health administrators.)
Fullerton is literally teeming with Koreans, who have nearly displaced Hispanics as the #2-ranking minority population. This is in no small part because of the state college and university there.
Irvine's student body, like all the UCs, has a huge Asian sub-population, both students and faculty.
Orange has a large population of Gujarati-speaking Indians.
Then there are Filipinos everywhere, as well as Indonesians, Thais, and every other stray cat and dog from Noah's Ark. Many of whom (especially elderly ones) speak about zero English.

You tell me, but it you're trying to get the word out on a potential pandemic, coming from mainland China, you'd think you'd take a stab at the larger ethnic populations, particularly posting signage for Mandarin and Cantonese speakers. So much for Providence Health Care's common sense. And they now own that hospital, and three affiliated large hospitals in the county. For just one example.
Pooch: screwed.

3) As we noted on these pages a few days ago, unless you were in China, or had direct known contact with known lab-tested infectees, the CDCidiots names "no identifiable risk". Problem being, with a 2-14 (and perhaps as much as 24- or 28-) day incubation period, during some amount of which you're contagious but asymptomatic, you could easily be infected, and be third-, fourth-, fifth-, or Nth-level removed from the person who the CDCidiots think is the main hazard. This kind of rank official stupidity is a recipe to grow this to full-blown pandemic in a few weeks.

4) A poster noted in comments to the previous post that there are about 930K hospital beds in the US, and 93K ICU beds. I have no basis to dispute those numbers, so we'll stipulate for the record they're reasonably accurate. But low-end, this is going to create 1.5M deaths nationwide, if it distributes like flu, and maintains a 3% mortality. (That's 30X the annual flu numbers.) And at 3% mortality, it will create up to 15 million hospitalizations, and 30M hospital visits.
And hospitals, IMH experience, run from 80%-100% full most of the time now, from heart attacks, strokes, trauma, and the other rainbow of human frailty that feeds me and keeps a roof over my head, as it has for over 25 years.

So trying to shoehorn another 15M patients into 930K hospital beds, and 93K ICU beds (our ICU, e.g., is frequently full-up most days already) is going to totally collapse health care in this country as you know it. For everything. For everyone.


















Suffice it to say we won't be installing bunk beds in the hospital patient rooms.

We'll be on society-wide China-style lockdowns long before then, and IDC if you pop up hospital wards in gymnasiums or sports stadiums, because you aren't going to squat and crap out 1-2M doctors and nurses overnight to treat the patients in those beds.
Not. Going. To. Happen. Ever.

As Rummy famously told you in 2002, "You go to war with the army you have, not with the one you wish you had."

Those people are going to go untreated, or poorly treated, just like in China, and the rest of the Turd World.

Wrap your heads around that reality.

"So what, Aesop?"

So what is, a number of those people are going to die.
Numbers you're not used to seeing, even if it's "only" 3% or so.
(Which is sheer heaven compared to Ebola's 66-90% rate).
In a busy trauma center, 1-2 deaths is a busy day.
Now double that.
For all of this coming year, potentially.

And the people shafted volun-told to care for them are going to fail, miserably, probably get infected themselves due to lack of training, lack of experience, lack of equipment, and simply being overwhelmed. Making the whole problem that much worse.

Ad hoc treatment centers, if this turns into pandemic, are going to look like the MV Death Princess, minus the swimming pool and cocktail lounges.



















I repeat:

There will be no ICU care if this goes full pandemic.

None. Nada. Zip. Niente. Bupkus. Zilch. Zero.

We fight for 5 beds/night in a busy trauma center, now, every day.
We routinely hold 1-4 ICU admits and 5 or more telemetry admissions all night long in the ER (making ER care that much harder to get too, for those sitting outside trying to get in - and that includes ambulances - sh*t rolls downhill), hoping that some patients either improve (and get downgraded) or else simply move to the morgue, in order to open up beds after morning shift change.
Sometimes that happens, sometimes it doesn't.

When it's really bad, we go on diversion, dumping all ambulances onto the other hospitals in the area.
Until they choke and close too.
Once everybody closes, everybody's open again. But there's still no beds, so they sit on a gurney, in the hall, for as long as it takes. Hours, even.

Add on 10-20 WuFlu victims/day/all of 2020, at least 1/3 to 1/2 of them needing admission, possibly ICU beds, and ventilator support, times every ER you ever heard of, and you can cancel Christmas.
Literally.

If you're not at least ICU sick (the only thing worse is Forest Lawn sick, btw) when you come in, you're probably never going to get a hospital bed.

The beds we have will be used to try and save those almost dead.
Anything less is going to get re-routed to some half-assed minimally-staffed mega-disaster-plex, someplace like Angel Stadium, the Pond, or some other huge parking lot location closed for the duration because of public infection risks. Staffed by who-knows-who. Retirees and kids, if they're lucky. Maybe military and the Notional Guard, if they're screwed into it. Possibly nobody.
And run with the same management care, expertise, and diligence that gets you the Post Office, the DMV, and the TSA, 24/7/365. Good times.

If this gets that ugly, go long on shroud and bulldozer stocks.
Short sports franchises, theme parks, airlines, and resort hotel chains.
Think the travel industry starting on 9/12/01.

5) Now, therefore, based on what you now know, think on what you might want to be putting aside for yourselves for, say, the rest of 2020. Maybe into Spring 2021.

If you take care of yourself now, before it's a problem, you won't be part of it down the road, and I won't see your happy @$$ in my hospital, nor will any one of my colleagues.

Don't be That Guy. No, REALLY. Just DON'T. M'kay?

And remember this little chat and explanation the next time some official spokeshole starts blowing happygas on you from out between his butt cheeks, and tells you "American health care is first-rate, and we can handle this." Like they told you about Ebola, right before it showed up in Dallas in 2014. And American health care totally blew that right out its @$$. 

And on that cheerful note, I bid you happy thoughts.
Now go shopping.

















And if this turns into a nothingburger, with only a mild impact, remember that the stuff doesn't go bad on your shelves. It just means you can eat for next year at last year's prices.
Win-win.

Qwitcherbitchin and get busy.


44 comments:

Old NFO said...

Good points and personally, I'm glad I'm out of OC...

Aesop said...

Fear not; you can substitute any city in the U.S. of >1M into that.
So, by the by, how many ethnic Asians live down on the bayou these days?
Or in any/every university town?

This is everywhere that isn't deep Appalachia or BFE.
Lather, rinse repeat.

Anonymous said...

Yes, stock up now before you can't.
A good rule of thumb is to make a 30 day menu for yourself that you know you will eat, then figure out the quantities you will need and multiple for 3 for a 90 day rotation.
I've never been a fan of MREs. I have some backpacking freeze dried meals, but they are expensive. I try and menu plan for things my picky family will actually eat (yes, I know if you're hungry enough, you'll eat anything, but I digress).
Examples: canned pasta sauce with added shredded canned chicken, dried dehydrated veg and dried herbs added for a prima vera sauce to serve over pasta. Mac n cheese from dried cheese powder bought in bulk. You get the idea.
Stock up on tetra pak milk, evapourated milk, canned goat milk, dried powder skim milk etc. depending on your preference if you like dairy. Some type of electrolyte replacement for people who do get sick.
https://rehydrate.org/solutions/homemade.htm
Learning how to pressure can is a wise skill to have. Pressure canning meat will be a good back up plan in case of extended power loss which would degrade long term frozen storage.
Think about how you would cope without electric for an extended period and test market your backup plan before you actually have to do so. When SHTF is not the time to practice your skill set.
Think about your strategies if essential government services are no longer a "thing".
City of Toronto garbage strike showed just how quickly things can break down.
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/02/26/remember-when-toronto-was-festering-with-garbage-in-2009-during-the-city-workers-strike-share-your-memories.html

Retired Mustang said...

Glad to not be in SoCal, any longer. I've been a RN for almost 30 years. I was an EMT before that. For most of that time I've been beating my head against a wall, telling people that when it comes to healthcare, once the giant shit ball starts rolling downhill it just gets bigger and faster. "It can't happen here" is the usual response. Hopefully, this year won't make the point for me.

Eaton Rapids Joe said...

Just out of curiosity, if Pence offered you a position on "The Task Force", would you take it?

Peripatetic said...

A small correction. In Shanghai they speak Shanghainese and Mandarin, not Cantonese.

The two (or three) languages sound very different and are not mutually intelligible.

Anonymous said...

We are in so much trouble it's not funny. I'm so pleased I'm not starting my prepping from zero. Actually I estimate my house is good to go (sans water but I live walking distance to a dam) for a whole year. Thank you Lord Bison.

Aesop said...

@Retired Mustang,
Any city over 1M (and probably over 100K) will be Wuhan if this goes as we probably both fear.
There ain't no "good" areas, because you don't know who shook the hand of the guy that shook the hand of the guy who shook your hand, etc.
That's why it's liable to be a pandemic.
Unless someone has a Bond Villain island lair.

@Eaton Rapids Joe,
Sure why not? There's always a chance someone in charge would listen to common sense.
But any travel "consulting" would be under military escort, in a Level A encapsulating suit.
And if they ask me to introduce the virus to the mothership in a UFO flown by Will Smith and Jeff Goldblum, I'm out.

@Peripatetic,
Read my parenthetical notes and link to Item #2 in the OP. Actually, in Shanghai, they speak Mandarin, Cantonese, and any one of 8 major dialect groups, depending on who you're talking to. Most of it is mutually unintelligible to anyone a hundred miles from home, or outside your ethnic group.

Anonymous said...

@Aesop "Unless someone has a Bond Villain island lair."

:)

tfA-t

Aesop said...

@Anon 6:00P,

Teabag doesn't have a Bond villain lair, except in his head. He just lives on an island. He'll find out when things gets spicy he's the only not-an-Indian on that island. Ask the cannibals what missionary tastes like if you want to know how that ends.

@ThatWouldBe Telling,

1) Money doesn't buy brains. Right now, it doesn't even buy N95 masks, because there aren't any. And CA is already brokety-broke. Their IOUs will mainly come in handy as a substitute for Charmin when that's gone too.

3) The CDC remains 2-8 weeks behind the curve on this.
For a disease that replicates in 0-2 weeks.

Work that math out yourself.
I'm off to Big Box to add a few things.

Ominous Cowherd said...

All the several Chinese languages share the same written form, which is really a separate language itself. So post signs in the simplified characters, and all literate Chinese will be able to read them. The Taiwanese, who are the only ones still using the traditional characters, can figure out the simplified characters.

John Wilder said...

Was at a company meeting today. Someone mentioned Corona (in passing) an I heard laughs, as if it were a joke.

(shakes head)

John Wilder said...

^and

(grrr)

nick flandrey said...

Spent the morning doing work things, and then hit Costco.

I wanted to go yesterday, 'cuz I was pretty sure of what I'd find if I waited, but had work stuff yesterday too.

NO bleach at all, although the staffer said they'd restock "later".

Last 4 packs of Lysol went into my basket, and one went back out to a lady with medical issues.

NO bleach based cleaner at all.

NO isopropal alcohol

The did have clorox wipes. They are featured in the flyer this week so there were pallets left. 2 four packs came home with me.

They had a whole pallet of nitrile gloves in M, L, and XL in addition to their normal gloves in the pharmacy area.

I hit all of Aesop's recommended OTC pharmacopia and then some, mostly doubling up on two packs.

Hit a bunch of food items too, although I'd been a week ago for a big trip. Can't have too much food.

I was surprised to see ALL the bottled water gone. I thought that was crazy for wuflu, but it turns out Houston had a major water main break and we're under a boil advisory. So when I got home the aquatainers came into the kitchen.

Someone mentioned being prepped up, and I am, but there's always room for more. Tomorrow I hit the regular grocery for stuff my wife usually buys, and a big sack of onions and a couple big sacks of potatoes. Maybe some hard squash too. Onions, potatoes and squash all last a long time if kept cool and dark. And they are cheap.

A quick check of ebay shows that there are still masks, but you do better searching for specifics than for N95. prices doubled since last night.

There are people asking $30 each for 3m masks but other comparable masks are in the $5-10 range. For that money, buy a full face respirator that takes cartridges, they are still available.

And yeah, if there is stuff you need that comes from china, better get it now, before existing stocks are depleted.

nick

nick flandrey said...

Ni hao, welcome to take my taxi....

The extend of my language skills in Shanghai.

n

(everything is subtitled in at least three languages, and all the menus are picture books.)

Anonymous said...

I'm reaching back 10 years to some Mil/FEMA experience with "big" emergency management. We used to travel around and do exercises notionally nuking US cities (the "10K in the Beltway scenario". Nothing good came out of it...nobody understands radiation.

All disasters are local. So, county execs and mayors are the front line leaders. Behind them is governors. States are sovereign and the Fed cannot just wade into it. They must be asked via the governor declaring a disaster and asking the President for assistance. The President agrees and federal assistance rolls in..,but, the Governor cedes some control when this happens. Remember Katrina, when the LA governor wanted to retain control, but also wanted the federal assets? Not the whole problem...but part of it.

But before this, Governors are supposed to use EMAC, which is formal assistance agreements between the states. In my opinion, I would think that states would be hesitant to give up resources that they may need. Floods, earthquakes, wildfires are geographically isolated. If the Big One hit CA, you can probably count on help from AZ, MT, NV, OR...any unaffected state. This?...I doubt it.

I wondered about Breed declaring an emergency for SF...maybe that can unlock State resources? Pandemics may be different, we did not really train that (except for a minor bird flu outbreak at University of Delaware which was handily dealt with by a Fedex shipment of Tamilflu out of the SNS) but for generic disasters, it is going to take the governor to declare an emergency and request help from POTUS.

I personally think that the appointment of VPOTUS as principal federal official/CZAR is a very good move. As a former governor (and Marine) he can cut through some of the political pissing contests and certainly has the clout (and demeanor) to make the more obstinate federal officials toe the line.

The big bird flu concept I am familiar with was something like "ring vaccinations" where you basically cordon off an outbreak by vaccinating everyone around it (big undertaking) but we don't have a vaccine...yet.

So bottom line (for CA) is the governor better get to work and take charge of this problem...hands on, full time and with vigor. When he has to tap out due to resource exhaustion, then he asks Trump for help.

Anonymous said...

If it comes to it...you can make chlorine out of water, table salt, and 12v power. Good science fair project, too.

Anonymous said...

The "declared a health emergency" was/is a ploy to keep infected people from being house in the old Fairview hospital.

Peter B said...

Israeli scientists: 'In a few weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine'

Once the vaccine is developed, it will take at least 90 days to complete the regulatory process and potentially more to enter the marketplace.


MIGAL was working on a vaccine for Infectious Bronchitis Virus, a poultry disease.

"In preclinical trials, the team demonstrated that the oral vaccination induces high levels of specific anti-IBV antibodies, [MIGAL biotechnology group leader Dr. Chen] Katz said.

“'Let’s call it pure luck,' he said. 'We decided to choose coronavirus as a model for our system just as a proof of concept for our technology.'

"But after scientists sequenced the DNA of the novel coronavirus causing the current worldwide outbreak, the MIGAL researchers examined it and found that the poultry coronavirus has high genetic similarity to the human one, and that it uses the same infection mechanism, which increases the likelihood of achieving an effective human vaccine in a very short period of time, Katz said.

“'All we need to do is adjust the system to the new sequence,' he said. 'We are in the middle of this process, and hopefully in a few weeks we will have the vaccine in our hands. Yes, in a few weeks, if it all works, we would have a vaccine to prevent coronavirus.'

"MIGAL would be responsible for developing the new vaccine, but it would then have to go through a regulatory process, including clinical trials and large-scale production, Katz said."

Anonymous said...

Nick, you might find bleach tablets - solid and/or powder- filled meltable pods. The pods are fragrance-free, the tabs would be good for cleaning.

Pandora

Homesteader said...

Ran through my stock this week.
Updated my food stores, cleaned up the camping gear, and will finish the workshop cleanup this week.

Working assumptions:

1. We will all be exposed, and infected. ALL of us. ESPECIALLY those of us who are ER staff.
Sorry, Aesop- we're both getting it.

2. The infection may be mitigated by taking D3, Vit.C, Echinacea, good sleep hygiene, exercise, etc.
I don't know. But I'm damn sure gonna try to find out. Because, after 24 years in the business, I know one thing- PPE always fails, eventually.

Thus, a strong immune system may be your only defense that actually works.

3. We are finally going to see supply line shortages that REALLY
matter. RIGHT NOW, we are having surgical mask shortages. Try running an OR without them, or all the other medical supplies offshored since Clinton rented out the Lincoln bedroom.

Then extrapolate 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order effects.The unemployed- broke, and starving. Retirement accounts losing 80% of their value, and the social unrest therewith. No baby formula. No dog food. No tires, no gas, etc., etc. Be creative. Think of what happens if pets and livestock become vectors.

4. Disproportionate disruptions.
Things will change QUICKLY.
Critical mass, tipping point, call it what you will. Expect the unexpected, TODAY. Stay agile.
Have plan B,C, AND D. You just may need them. Avoidance is your friend. ANY confrontation may be disastrous.

5. Expect guests you didn't plan on.

Anyone reading this blog, is an Ant. And, like as not, your friends, and relatives, are Grasshoppers. Remember this.
And no, you won't be shooting people you know. You'll try to help them, initially, at least.
So, plan for feeding the foolish.
Don't advertise. Just expect.
Extra food, clothes, tents, sleeping bags- they CAN sleep outside- just expect it.

Call it The Right Man's Burden.

I hope to God we're all wrong.



Zero the EBTs said...

(Wikipedia) "...On 26 February, North Macedonia confirmed the first case of COVID-19, a woman tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in Clinic for Infectious Diseases, Skopje. She stayed in Italy for a month and had been sick for two weeks. Upon returning to North Macedonia, she immediately reported to the clinic."

--IOW, she was sneezing and wheezing for a full half a month inside of her generated invisible cloud of plague as she went hither and yon about her business.

No word of what conveyance she took home.

nick flandrey said...

Thanks Pandora,

I've already got everything I bought today, and wanted to buy, but more is better. I particularly wanted more bleach as it fades in strength over time. I have some calcium hypochlorite pool shock somewhere, and will be buying some more tomorrow but you can't beat the convenience of premade.

No matter how long you do this, there is always something more to do, learn, or buy.

nick

Anonymous said...

Just read an article of how my hometown downtown hospital is having to increase its emergency psych department because of the prevalence of crystal meth. This on top of the opiate and fentynal crisis. I'm in Vancouver and I read of how hospital emergency services are stretched with fentynal overdoses.

We all know how this virus will tear through the homeless population from their close quarter street or SRO living, plus suppressed immune system. But I would imagine these people will be absolute bottom priority once the ER's are swamped with corona victims.

People talk of using natural selection and the overdoses to just take out the addicts in society on their own. But no one in any authority would ever do that. We may be seeing just that happening though because of the extreme circumstances of this emergency. Just occurred to me as I was reading the article.

Anonymous said...

Aesop, I'm a late-stage muscular dystrophy patient with a tracheostomy, on 24/7 ventilation, and with only one functioning lung. I live in SoCal. If this goes full blown, and I catch it, am I likely to get triaged out of care at a hospital? Even if not, is there likely to be enough basic care there for me to stay alive while fighting it? (eg. getting regular suctioning so I don't drown in mucus before the virus would "actually" kill me)

I probably would try the hospital regardless, but I do wonder if my still-very-bleak chances might be slightly better at home than at an overflowing hospital.

Unknownsailor said...

Anon at 2126 27 Feb, if you get it, in your condition, you will be black tagged (expectant.) Accept that now. Which means don't get it.

I went and dropped $200 at the store Tuesday night, and will drop another $200 this weekend. I also had 2 months of dehydrated food show up from Patriot Food Supply on Wednesday. Patriot Food Supply is running at least a week behind, and I would imagine that it will only get worse from there.

I need to get water storage, I don't know if municipal water will stay on.

This is all at my school apartment; I have a lot more at my house, but that is 314 miles away. I graduate in 2 weeks, so I'm just praying for everything to hold together until then so I can get my ass home.

Aesop said...

^^ That's about the size of it.

Dollars to donuts the decision will be made way above my pay grade not to admit/bother with anyone over 70 or 75 either, if/when it gets Wuhan-bad.
Not right away, but in short order.

The resources could be better applied to save more lower-risk patients, and they will be triaged in that manner.

That's what triage is: saving the ones you can, and in the greatest numbers.

"Don't get it", indeed.

Anonymous said...

Same here, managers and engineers at an auto company engineering facility in South-Eastern Michigan, they thought it was funny. Picked up some meds at CVS Pharmacy and wiped down the touch screen with an alcohol wire. Was looked at like I'm crazy and paranoid by the pharmacy tech behind the counter. The only ones on the ball on this are those few of us who follow sites like this (in my case) and Alex Jones (in the other cases). Guess when things do happen to get people moving on this in a big way it's going to be a case of "first it occurs very slowly, then suddenly all at once."

Anonymous said...

Pray that the stupid amongst us don't get it right away, and that the coming Spring and Summer weather help slow the spread further.

In the meantime prep. Buy extra of the canned foods you like, dried foods like pasta and rice, etc. as Aesop says, you can always eat it this Summer or next year. Don't forget the queasy stomach and sick foods like soups, crackers, Gatorade, Pedialyte, soda and water.

Wash your hands. Avoid the crowds.
Wash your hands some more.

Thank you Aesop for your blog. Most of us do listen.

Aesop said...

Understand, I hope I'm totally wrong. I'm dreading the next few months at work if every city turns into Wuhan.

I want this to be a nothingburger, in the same way that the most ardent advocate for world peace is the guy checking his rifle in the first wave landing craft as it approaches the assault beach.

But hope ain't a plan, and we won't stay lucky indefinitely.

Zero the EBTs said...

> I'm a late-stage muscular dystrophy patient
> with a tracheostomy, on 24/7 ventilation, and
> only one functioning lung. I live in SoCal.

This is not a good time to be a Stephen Hawkings. Aside from the bug itself, you could be in trouble even you don't catch it:

-- Whomever takes care of you may have troubles of their own if you stay where you are, and you might find yourself abandoned.
-- The power and water might go out to your neighborhood (see below).
-- Healthy, recovered hood rats might decide that it's a good time to go out pillaging and arsoning in a target-rich-environment gun-control state while everyone else (including the cops) are still bunkered. (If this happens, you'll need a good supply of also-recovered rooftop Koreans nearby.)

I'd try lining up an extended vacation out-of-state to a secluded wilderness resort with widely-separated cabins, ideally something up in the mountains. Gas up the wheelchair van full of chow, a Honda generator and spare gas for it, your O2 supplies, the other bits on Aesop's bug-out list, and go.

Anonymous said...

LOL you're a funny mofo

i bet we'd get along just fine

tfA-t

cdwarior said...

Ahem....
I was thinking and most likely that was my first mistake. Anyone knowing better correct me, harshly if you desire I don't mind.
DNA of people and I suspect all life great and small are composed of proteins A-Adenosine, C-Cytosine, T-Thymine, G-Guanine (ACTG) for short. In combinations of the billions like a Jaqcuard weave they produce the 'organism' or whatever. 'Scientists' in their infinite wisdom and desire to have things do and be things other than intended have synthesized the X and Y amino acids which can take the place of any/all the ACTGs and make for interesting results.
My question is this. Has ANYONE searched the entire genome of this for 'Other than ACGT'? If anything else is found this is literally Andromeda Strain and not of this Earth. Is it so contagious because our bodies don't even know it is pathogenic life? How much remains in our dna after recovery? Are we then even human or based upon belief systems Nephalim, hell-spawn, or ubermensch? Are we being prepared for earth changes, alien takeover, or tenderized as food? Will we be able to procreate with random x/y genes? If someone is able, acquire the entire full sequence and at least do a notepad++ search please.
I think pandemic may be the least of our problems.

nick flandrey said...

@cdwarior

--you'd be better served by heading out to the store than worrying about any of that. You can't change it, it doesn't matter.

--focus people, world changing event going on right around us (think not? Ask the chinese if their world is changing.)

--don't spend your last few weeks of relative normality falling down a rabbit hole instead of doing what you can to mitigate the problems that always accompany rapid change.

--we've got some time left, don't piss it away on irrelevant things.

nick

The Gray Man said...

Something the talking heads and “officials” don’t understand is that “first rate” does not equal “good enough” in every situation.

Anonymous said...

@Anon 2301: Looks like the warm weather idea may not be so accurate given where some cases have been detected. I would guess we need to watch how things go in Brazil, Australia, Singapore and other currently or always warm weather areas. Just now I'm not convinced.

RandyGC said...

Aesop,

I don't know what a "Health Emergency" means in OC. I do know what it MIGHT mean.

Based on when I was working in Emergency Management, we had plans at the County level that included multiple types of events including a Pandemic.

For us, declaring a Public Health Emergency meant that:

We activated groups to monitor the situation and coordinate logistics among hospitals and other health care providers (including the possible triage of supplies) that included Fire/EMS and possibly LE.

Activated lines of communication with the State EMA and Public Health (daily or more conference calls, opened an event in a common online emergency management tool)

Waived some of the usual regulations surrounding purchasing supplies.

First step to requesting supplies and equipment from a state stockpile.

First step of the process of sending a request for activation of the Strategic National Stockpile if applicable.

First step to meet legal requirements for initiating Quarantine procedures if needed.

Again, don't know what that term means (if anything except it sounds neat in a press release) in your neck of the woods.

On another note, my Pharmacy (part of a regional chain) has signs up with a line in just about any language I can think of (including Hindi, Nepalese, Thai...) telling the reader that medication information was available in their language and a telephone interpreter could be called if you just point at that line for the pharmacist staff.

If they can manage that in racist fly over country, you'd think the multi-cultural paradise of the PR of California could manage at least as much.

Good Luck Amigo. I know this is your living and calling, but don't forget the sage words of noted physician Dr. Simon Tam: "It's OK to leave them to die".

Matt Bracken said...

MREs and other freeze drieds are great (I have plenty) if you have to hump them through the boonies (light weight) but they need potable water to regenerate them.

Canned food (think C-Rats if you are over 55.) Since you are not humping them, just buy CASES of canned food (tuna, soup, veggies, etc) and stack them high in your SUV and in your "office" bedroom. If you don't have to go out foraging during the burn-off period, your survival chances go WAY up. For foraging, think about gazelles tip-toeing up to the last watering hole, full of crocs and surrounded by starving lions. With buzzards watching.

Every survivor of every SHTF disaster (Bosnia, Syria etc) says "Why didn't I go to the supermarket and max out my credit card when I knew what was coming? It was all there for the buying!" Two months later, they are eating bark and weeds, and burning doors to keep from freezing, or "living" under a plastic tarp in a refugee camp.

And that's without a person-to-person killer virus floating around.

Aesop said...

'zackly.

Robin Datta said...

Here are some numbers on US hospitals for what it's worth

lineman said...

Can you make it to the dam unseen because if not then I wouldn't count on that for a water source...You have to plan on people shooting at you as well in a SHTF scenario because if you don't then you're going to be in for a ride awaking when people start losing their minds...

lineman said...

The hits just keep on coming;) Pure Luck that we just happened to be working on that very thing that will bring us lots of $$$...

lineman said...

Very good analysis Homesteader...My thoughts mirror yours especially the part where if it gets here and spreads we are all going to get it because of the up to 28 days before symptoms and all the while you are contagious...So because of that I'm not to worried about that aspect and will keep doing what I'm doing with the washing of hands and minimizing contact with people but what I am doing is deepening the larder and making sure everything is in good working order on the farm...We do what we can and leave the rest in God's hands...

lineman said...

If you have to work with others you are going to get it if it comes here no matter what you do in my opinion so focus instead on having a way to ride out the disruption in supply of food, water, and power...Since you live in a city that's going to be extra tough for you to mitigate...I feel for you Brother...