Thursday, February 6, 2020

Can I Get An "Amen"?


Charles in VA said...

Tempt thou not the Lord, thy God?

I love Samuel Clemens, but the man could at times be imprudent.

I have to believe that every bolt of lightening strikes exactly when, where and how it is supposed to. Literally and metaphorically.

beau said...


nick flandrey said...

Hey Aesop, there is a health sector call in you could probably catch if you've got an email addy with the right .xxx

"CDC Update on 2019-nCOV Response Friday, February 7 at 11:00 am ET

On Friday, February 7 at 11:00 am ET, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) are hosting a call during which Dr. Messonnier will share guidance for the private sector, including what CDC knows at this point and what CDC is doing in response to this outbreak. There will be time for questions and answers.


Dr. Nancy Messonnier, Director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases

Register Today!

Please register in advance for the call. Please email for additional information."

I'm finding the thrice weekly calls to be enlightening, not from what they say but from how they say it, and what questions they dance around.


Aesop said...

I already have the CDC Offishul Guidelines for this goatrope.
They haven't put out anything I didn't already tell everyone.

The joker in the deck is when and if the CDC announces that, er, um, the Chinese were a bit shy about telling the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth, and that this isn't garden-variety corona virus at all, but rather some frankenvirus they engineered, which has escaped the lab.

At that point, unroll the concertina around the perimeter, and bend over and kiss your ass goodbye. All bets are off at that point.

My confidence that the CDC will tell the whole truth about things is running about 10%.
China is still at -80%, for comparison (meaning that four times out of five they'll lie out of sheer reflex).

Charles in VA said...

@ Aesop,

Yeah. I don't think they're EVER gonna claim that one. Odds would be better than 50-50 that the rest of the world would want to nuke them...just make sure it never happened again.

Just like the 1918 Spanish Flu, the truth won't come out until the next generation is old and dying.

Trying to get to the truth these days is more painful than multiple root canals.

One rumor I've heard is that this thing is twice as fatal to people of Asian descent. That would seem to point to bio-engineering if true. Even time may not tell. It's messed up that anyone would even think to do something like that in the first place let alone figure out HOW to do it in a lab. But that's the world we live in now.

Anonymous said...

For consideration:

If these numbers are true then the mortality rate, using the confirmed number of cases is something north of 60%. If the probable cases are added in it drives the mortality rate all the way down to just over 40%. In the ballpark of what would be expected of a tailored bio-weapon.

I've read that the number of cases doubles approx. every 6 days. Therefore:

2-2-2020 154,023 confirmed 79,808 probable 24,589 dead

1-25-2020 77,011 39,904

1-18-2020 38,505 19952

24,589 / 385 = 63% 24,589 / 584 = 42%

or this could all be crap. Wish we could track the swamp creatures of the District of the Capitol. When they all suddenly decide on an extended vacation in the Canadian Rockies we'll know something is up.

McChuck said...

Anonymous: Decimal points are a thing. Learn how to math.

Differ said...

Based on the WHO sitrep numbers, the mortality rate appears to be trending towards about 3.5%. Caveat, most of the reported data is out if China; see Aesop's disclaimer. That makes it an order of magnitude more deadly than flue (CDC uses approx 0.13%). Numbers for non-asian deaths are too small to draw conclusions about rates for non-asian if different.

Aesop said...

Mafz iz hard.:

Normal flu is 0.1% fatal; ordinary corona virus is thirty times more lethal than the flu, at 3%.

And if the cases actually double every six days, in six months it would infect the entire planet.

Also 385 deaths out of 24,589 cases is 1.6%; 584 deaths out of 24589 cases is 2.4%.
24,589 deaths out of 233,831 cases is 10%.
That's not the mortality of corona virus, that's Spanish Flu.
And again, those are all based on imaginary numbers, and no precision is possible.

horsewithnonick said...

Granted that accurate numbers aren't and may never be available -

Wouldn't the same analysis you applied to the Ebola numbers, where mortality would properly be calculated using deaths as a percentage of number of cases x days ago, where x = the average number of days between diagnosis and death, apply here?

Aesop said...


So with R as the rate of spread, X as number of actual cases, and Y as number of deaths, and Z as the actual disease in question, and Q as the average number of days before death occurs, solve for all variables, given...nothing.

Show all work.

{cf.: the Drake Equation}

horsewithnonick said...

Multiply obvious lie n by WAG y...

Yeah, I got nothing, except the such feeling that if this is the horror show the worst guesses claim, it's already too late to do anything but hunker down.