Saturday, February 1, 2020

Chinese Calculus

I thought I was clear, but apparently not enough so.
"1) All data from China is based on information received from one of the most managed and controlled infolie-formation sources on the planet.
The exact number of how many cases of corona virus, when and where they happened, and how many fatalities they have noted, from China, may be expressed with maximal accuracy as "a lot".

No further precision is possible.

Not by me. Not by you. Not by the CDC. Not by ABCNNBCBS, or the lesser minions of media fucktardation..."

Any "numbers" from Chinese sources regarding their "corona virus" outbreak there are a steaming pile of feces.
I even expressed the formula in Comments:
" don't know when it started, where it started, how it started, and you don't know what they're doing, and you don't know how serious it is, to include how many infected, how many dead, and how many recovering, nor the rate of spread, nor the treatment protocols being used. 
Given: nothing.
Solve for all variables:
W1 * W2 * H * W3 * S * I * D * R * G * T = XYZ.

Show all work."

But apparently, that still wasn't explicit enough.

And it's worse than that, because there's a good possibility this isn't corona virus, but some bio-engineered frankenvirus. Or not. And nobody, me, you, nor the elf on the shelf, knows for sure. Stay tuned.

So grasp, understand, be in no doubt, take it to heart, and get a damned clue that
Henceforth, any post comments, links, or references to numbers from China, about China, and their outbreak problem, from China or Chinese sources, will be regarded as spam, and dealt with accordingly. Like you never wasted the electrons to post it.
Klar, comissars?

What's up already is up, but it's "weapons free" on this nonsense from here on out.

You got authoritative numbers from far less tainted sources?
Give it a try.
(And no, someone out here, quoting numbers from back there, doesn't count, any more than the MSM quoting a Twitter post makes either one a legitimate source.)

Nothing is 100% accurate.
But the numbers, videos, and "info" from China, including anecdotal reports, are pure bullsh*t.
Chinese propaganda makes the Norks' propaganda look like George Washington reporting on cutting down a cherry tree.
Post them on your blog, not mine. If they're "all there is", think about that for a couple of minutes, and why that should be, before you willingly put it out there.
The synonym of "propaganda" is not "information".

You will not build Reality on a foundation of quicksand, over a sinkhole, on a faultline, in the shadow of an active volcano.

Stop Trying.


Linda Fox said...

You're right. I posted about the Chinese habit of concealing the bad news, releasing just a bit of it in a slow manner, alternating with dismissive declarations that absolutely NOTHING is wrong.

Followed later by a buried statement of truth (sort of), and refusal to discuss it.

Where Chinese government statements are concerned, believe NOTHING.

FredLewers said...

You can tell when any 'government official' is lying just by watching their lips. Lip movement = lying...
Lying can be accomplished in one of three ways.
1. Outright falsehood (amateur)
2. Tell the truth on such a fashion that it's unbelievable. (Lawyers and economists)
3. Tell only the truth that benefits the lier and omit what facts don't fit the 'truth' (MSM & politicians)
So yeah... The coronavirus could be humanity's next black Swan or it could be a nothingburger. We just don't know yet because we don't have enough honestly derived facts to know or estimate the possible outcomes. Any other statement is BS designed to support the source's position or agenda.

FredLewers said...

Stay away from crowds and keep your preps and skills in order.

Anonymous said...

So yeah... The coronavirus could be humanity's next black Swan or it could be a nothingburger.

The Johns Hopkins CSSE chart of global cases, is about the best information we are going to find.
Whether the numbers for China are accurate or not, they can serve as a gauge...unless there is some reason to believe they are lowballing and embellishing their numbers. With the economic and societal impact there seems little reason to form this conclusion. When they are poisoning dogfood and baby milk, they aren't terribly forthcoming. When every fifth cup of rice farmed on their soil is laden with toxic levels of metallic impurities, they aren't very forthcoming. But hey right maybe this is a nothing burger they're inventing for attention. Or something. Not sure how that "face saving" works in said case.

Anonymous said...

That sentence above came out wrong:
unless there is some reason to believe they are lowballing (scratch that) embellishing their numbers, making them higher that they really are. That would seem antithetical to everything else they do.

Aesop said...

That's exactly the point: we don't know what they're doing, nor why.
This ranges everywhere from nothingburger to catastrophe to something beyond which you can imagine, and you have no reason to stick the pin any one place on that spectrum, nor any basis to decide for one place and not another. This whole thing is a map exercise in "Here, there be dragons".

Charles in VA said...

I have a mathematics nit to pick this morning.

BS times BS = BS squared*

*(exactly squared. there is nothing to carry...unless you've picked up that proverbial bucket, in which case, FFS put it down! lol)

Charles in VA said...

On a more serious note, one of my younger relatives flew out of Beijing last night and is now in Tokyo awaiting a flight to LA. That hop was cancelled and rescheduled for today.

Apparently the "lockdown" isn't as vigorous as some would have us believe.

That is all...for now.

Aesop said...


Not a Browncoat, are you?

Anonymous said...

That's exactly the point: we don't know what they're doing, nor why.
This ranges everywhere from nothingburger to catastrophe to something beyond which you can imagine

A nation known for poisoning the world now advises everyone to beware of poison.
Nothingburger is a sucker's bet.

RandyGC said...

...unless there is some reason to believe they are lowballing and embellishing their numbers.

You mean other than the fact that they are ruled by Communists?

In a society where information control by the "elite" was a power sport for thousands of years before Marx started spewing his brain dead BS?

In a society where the welfare and survival of their population has been secondary to saving face and gaining position within the hierarchy for thousands of years?

Gee, no. Can't think of any reason why the figures published by the ChiComs would be suspect.

RandyGC said...


Moving to another track on this subject, I wanted your take on this question;

Are hand sanitizers a good substituent for soap and hot water or simply better than nothing until you get to a sink?

I know that anti-bacterial soaps are useless against viruses (although keeping certain bacteria off your hands is a good idea in and of itself). So is the alcohol in many sanitizers adequate for killing virus particles?

Fortunately I don't need to go out much these days and the sinks and soap dispensers at home get frequent workouts, but was wondering about the few times I do go out.

Aesop said...

I've got this, Randy.;)
Still a lot of muttonhead strays since Richmond who think this is their sandbox to crap in.

Anything you put on your hands is useful for lowering the friction coefficient to get problems off your hands.

It's like paint: you're trying to get it off, not kill it.

Washing is best. Alcohol-based gels aren't helping unless you have running water.
They'll help with killing a lot of other things(bacterial), but killing viruses, not so much.

RandyGC said...

Thanks Aesop

Crew said...

SFO is reducing flights from China from 90 a week to 55.

That is supposed to make us feel safe.

Marty said...

I watched the WH CV task force presser yesterday, what was telling to me was not what the HHS secretary said, but Dr Falci's body language, if he was a poker player he would be broke eventually they squeezed him out of the shot.

Any way ICYMI as far as it being a man made franken virus check out Corona virus and HIV research paper review by Dr. Paul Cottrell

Roger said...

If the virus is found to be a man made or man manipulated frankenvirus, do you believe that our government would tell us that?

Jonathan H said...

I'm a bit late with this comment, but I was where I couldn't comment earlier.

I assume that the Chinese numbers are not accurate; they are more than likely low but they might be twisted in other ways as well.
As far as embellishing the numbers (increasing), the only reason I can think for them to do that was if they thought it would give them political leverage and to me the only reason for that would be to blame it on some one else. Speaking of which, thinking about it I'm surprised that they haven't blamed it on somebody as far as I've heard. I would have expected that current regime in China to at least attempt to use this crisis to attack somebody - The USA, Falun Gong, Taiwan, Xi's political opponents, smugglers, capitalists, SOMEONE else to divert blame from themselves.
Any thoughts why they haven't publicly tried to blame someone else?

nick flandrey said...

It's certainly eerie watching the video of deserted streets everywhere. Where the hell are the people? Are hungry people really just sitting in their apartments?

Even one person per family, per day would be a lot of people moving around.

I spent a couple of months in Shanghai, and there was NEVER a time when the streets weren't full of people. Some times were more crowded than others. 3am was just as busy as 3pm.

It's starting to make me wonder all sorts of improbable things.


nick flandrey said...

CDC guidelines for health care providers--

"restrict unprotected individuals, including HCP, from entering a vacated room until sufficient time has elapsed for enough air changes to remove potentially infectious particles (more information on clearance rates under differing ventilation conditions is available).We do not yet know how long 2019-nCoV remains infectious in the air. In the interim, it is reasonable to apply a similar time period before entering the room without respiratory protection as used for pathogens spread by the airborne route (e.g., measles, tuberculosis). "

--and Interim Guidance for Implementing Home Care of People Not Requiring Hospitalization for 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)



Charles in VA said...

@ Aesop,7:46AM

Pretty sure I'm not (I had to look it up on urban dictionary)...although I did thoroughly enjoy Serenity.

I have no desire to make a movie, nor participate in the making of one.

Why? Would that be a red flag for you if I was? Or do I still not have your reference pegged?

BTW, today was my "down day". I did the monthly grocery run, sharpened my Stihl, and harvested and processed a season's worth of VA pine fatwood...and had 3 Heinekens. Poppin' a 4th now.


PS...full auto .308's poppin' off in my neighborhood right now. That sort of shit used to piss me off, but today it just made me smile! I've been drooling over a Palmetto Arms gen 3 AR 10 these days myself. Great entry level .308 platform by all accounts. Wish they made it in 30-06.

Aesop said...


I think the likelihood is higher, if only because they know sooner or later, someone would leak it anyway.

Aesop said...


The nitpick was pointless, because the quote was based off a line from one episode of Firefly:

Anonymous said...

Alcohol-based gels aren't helping unless you have running water.
They'll help with killing a lot of other things(bacterial), but killing viruses, not so much.

I thought it didn't take much to inactivate enveloped viruses like coronavirues, influenza, and so on.

Charles in VA said...

@ Aesop,
You know what? Never mind. We've both been down this road before (separately) and it's nothing but a dead end. I know it better than you...but we both know it.

I'm not wasting either of our time on it further.

Aesop said...

Alcohol gels need up to 30 seconds a full coverage of the hands, and generous application, and even then aren't fully effective at killing everything.

They're gentler on the hands if you're doing frequent hand washing.

But soap and thorough hand washing long enough to sing "Happy Birthday" (in your head, please) will remove just about everything you're worried about.

If you're a suspender-and-belt person, do both, alternately, but know that alcohol gels aren't perfect.

15Fixer said...

"Yer coat's kinda brown."
"It was on sale."

coner said...

what if...what if there is no Wouldn't that shock the shit out of the world. It sure would explain China's over reaction to a seeming nothinburger face.....there is nothing to save 5 million people fled in horror

nick flandrey said...

That's crazy talk. But it would explain the draconian measures.

I'll add that we've decided to stop some people from entering the country. Apparently it's been 50 years since we did that. Something is causing people in a position to know more than us to do things that don't seem justified by what little we've been told.


Anonymous said...

another possibility is that the Chin financial system is on the verge or pass the verge of going boom and the govt is fabricating the whole mess as a cover story rather than take the full blame themselves.

nick flandrey said...

Isn't starting a war the usual cure for that? Unleashing a plague on the world doesn't get you any righteousness points like a ginned up incident of your coast....


nick flandrey said...

"First coronavirus death OUTSIDE China is confirmed after a man from Wuhan dies in the Philippines

A man from Wuhan has died from the coronavirus in the Philippines
The 44-year-old man was admitted to hospital after travelling from China
At the time, he was suffering from a fever, cough and a sore throat
His condition deteriorated rapidly and he developed severe pneumonia "


Monsoon Matriarch said...

We know that it was sufficiently uncontrolled that they had to warn the world it was coming, then a week later quarantine 50 million people and restrict the movement of millions more. My guess is that it is bad shit and spreads like wildfire, like an R0 of 3 to 5 and a fatality rate in the low double digits. The ChiComGov may not know any of the actuals, but probably have a gut feel that they are on the cusp of solving the problems associated with the one child policy and the lifting thereof.

Anonymous said...

Two reports that should be of interest to people,

First, the virus can be spread via feces, and fecal contamination. One of the symptoms of nCov is often diarrhea, explosive diarrhea. SARS was spread through a Chinese Apartment building in 2003 by fecal contamination, including airborne. The lungs and the intestinal tract both have receptors for Coronavirus. Keep that in mind when you are in public, and using public lavatories.

Second, the Chinese took down a press report that accused their government of lying. Basically no one dies of nCov, unless it is confirmed and they die in the hospital. The other deaths are chalked up to general pneumonia, or some similar cause, not nCov. No one officially has nCov unless it is confirmed by test and they are under care in a hospital. I think our influenza reporting rules here are similar, but our hospitals are not overwhelmed with too many patients either.

I think key data will be the number of person to person transmissions that are reported outside of China, especially in the Western World. Lots of person to person transmission cases mean it will get spread widely, and not die out quickly.

Reltney McFee said...

Dear Anon 4:48:ref your assertion, quoted here:

"...but our hospitals are not overwhelmed with too many patients either."

Er, NSVFM. In my personal experience, any ED in any town of much of any size (which would, of course, be the epicenter, for any given locality, of any sort of epidemic, influenza, SARS, nCOV, Ebola or The Black death) is gridlocked pretty much the entirety of any weekend. That includes three day weekends, wherein the gridlock can be predicted to extend for 4 days, inclusive of the day following said weekend. One (of many) reasons for the gridlock is the inability of the floor staff in the ED to get folks admitted, and then off to the floor. One (of many) reasons for THAT, is an intersections of short staffing in hospitals, and a bed:demand imbalance.

So, if you select your day carefully (say, Tuesday morning around 0400), you can see empty Ed beds, and a (more or less) empty ED waiting room. That, however, is not the baseline. So, ref your implication that we are/will not see (seeing) the sort of pandemonium shown in several exciting videos on the internet, is that it is not newsworthy. As in, it's what we called, in my days as a floor nurse, "Saturday".

nick flandrey said...

Numbers not from china--

"Thailand has seen 19 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, 11 patients are still in hospital but the rest have been able to return home. "

I don't know the timeline. The interactive map shows only 5 recovered in Thailand.

No idea or comment about the other claims in the article.


Anonymous said...

1) Outbreak occurs at site of PRC's premier bioweapons facility.
2) Virus has similarities to other more lethal pathogens, possibly bioengineered.

Wouldn't this be a great way to document the spread of a bioweapon? Infect some Chinese in an area under particularly strict population controls and observe how it spreads through China and the World and how the targets respond to the test attack.

nick flandrey said...

"observe how it spreads"

--and wreck your economy while earning the opprobrium of the whole world? I don't see any upside for the .gov there....


nick flandrey said...

I believe the US infections have now doubled in a week...

Two confirmed cases have been reported in San Benito County in Northern California

and we're seeing transmission to a partner in almost every case where a partner was present.

That's not good.


Anonymous said... lol ouch

Michael or Janice said...

It took a lot of searching to find anything usable by Aesop's definition. Every org out there is using the same regurgitated data that has China mashed in.

Finally found this chart url
Source: John Hopkins University

Broken out into Mainland China and Other by date.. It is CUMULATIVE.

Jan 20 4
21 6
22 8
23 14
24 25
25 40
26 57
27 64
28 87
29 105

Every two days the total cumulative is doubling which is what China is reporting.


Michael or Janice said...
gives a snapshot of today broken out by country
gives a chart/timeline of cases in the USA

Jan 21 1
24 3
26 5
30 6
31 7
Feb 1 8
2 9

Numbers are too small to give a meaningful trend.

In the four hours I spent looking I found a lot of copy, paste, and small tweak surrounded by new ads. Maybe a timeline chart for the whole world and then a day by day recap of the leading coronavirus story of the day.


nick flandrey said...

Thanks Mike, if it's doubling every couple of days, we won't have to wait too long to start seeing larger numbers outside of china. God help us.


nick flandrey said...

Well, it looks like the chinese government just confirmed that some of the video coming out of china is real...


and also demonstrated why we are getting so little first hand reporting.

nick flandrey said...

zerohedge has a nicely formatted chart of the cases reported outside of china here--

It's at the top of the page now, but might move down later. Here's a link directly to the image...

There's no indication of where they got it or where the live version is.


Michael or Janice said...

I see that the folks at that I gave earlier have updated and improve their timeline. They are now giving only figures for the whole world as most everyone else does.

Which is still Johns Hopkins has a time line that breaks out Mainland China from Other Locations.

1-28 105
1-29 118
1-30 153
1-31 173
2-01 183
2-02 188
2-03 188

Hopefully this site will continue to provide the break out that I am interested in.


Termite said...

Communist Chinese government "statistics" on the corona virus sort of resemble the Drake Equation.....

carolinaTURTLE said...

Psalm 91.5~8
5 You will not fear the terror of night,
nor the arrow that flies by day,
6 nor the pestilence that stalks in the darkness,
nor the plague that destroys at midday.
7 A thousand may fall at your side,
ten thousand at your right hand,
but it will not come near you.
8 You will only observe with your eyes
and see the punishment of the wicked.

Aesop said...


Bingo! Winner!!

Anonymous said...


I appreciate you're a busy man and that your spare time is very valuable.

Could you please create a simplified blog post which one could point people to for prep for Coronachan's visit?

Keep up the great work

Oh for you >insert insult< that aren't prepared to fight for your 2A rights. I just watched video from China which appears to show Chinese authorities sealing up people in their apartments. It'd take serious gear (tools and the like) to get out.

Peter B said...

16 Chinese cities, 45 million people (about 3% of the Chinese population) are affected.

ABC flew a drone over Wuhan.

"'If you live in cities, your movement can be controlled through public transport,' Fei Chen, an urban-design lecturer at the University of Liverpool, previously told Business Insider. 'Wuhan has an international airport. It has highways and railways. So if you close all of them, then you basically cut off the means for people to get out.'

"The transport ban came in the middle of the Lunar New Year celebration, the world’s largest annual human migration.

"Reports from Wuhan suggest residents are mostly staying inside their homes, venturing out occasionally to stock up on food and masks. Some retailers are selling out of fresh produce as households hoard food, unsure of how long the epidemic and lockdown will last.

"Workers at some of these stores have donned full-body protective suits."

Peter B said...


But the process can be interesting:

"TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As many experts question the veracity of China's statistics for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, Tencent over the weekend seems to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures.

"On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker," showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

"The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.

"Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics....

"Netizens also noticed that each time the screen with the large numbers appears, it shows a comparison with the previous day's data which demonstrates a "reasonable" incremental increase, much like comparisons of official numbers. This has led some netizens to speculate that Tencent has two sets of data, the real data and "processed" data.

"Some are speculating that a coding problem could be causing the real "internal" data to accidentally appear. Others believe that someone behind the scenes is trying to leak the real numbers.

"However, the "internal" data held by Beijing may not reflect the true extent of the epidemic. According to multiple sources in Wuhan, many coronavirus patients are unable to receive treatment and die outside of hospitals.

"A severe shortage of test kits also leads to a lower number of diagnosed cases of infection and death. In addition, there have been many reports of doctors being ordered to list other forms of death instead of coronavirus to keep the death toll artificially low."