Friday, February 7, 2020

How Sad

shamelessly stolen from elysianfields' comment



Reltney McFee said...

Aesop: I assume that you are aware of the JAMA article linked to at WRSA. In case you are not, I copied-and-pasted the link. Assuming that the authors are indeed providing real information, well, there you are.

Of course, in the event that the authors wish to avoid the Chi Com equivalent of being "Epstein-ed", perhaps it is all bullshit.

Charles in VA said...

I'm no fan of Mike Adams at all. That having been said, it's REALLY hard to argue with math. Based of his analysis of a Lancet projection AND both leaked and "official" numbers from China, it looks like this virus has a 15-17% mortality rate. That's about 1000 times more lethal than the seasonal flu here in the US...which leads us to the conclusion that the WHO is full of BS, among other things.

But this got me thinking. Obviously, people in close proximity to each other (dense urban environments) are going to be at much greater risk of infection regardless of method of transmission.

What political Party represents the vast majority population of almost EVERY highly populated urban city? DemonRats! I'm not gloating about this. I'm just stating facts. They would be disproportionately affected. Theoretically, we could see a 10% reduction in the number of DemonRats in this country by Christmas.

Anyone want to give odds on how long it would take them to blame Trump for that?

Off The Wall said...

Any idea what's up with Mike over at Cold Fury? Website appears to be down.

Off The Wall said...

Never mind, Cold Fury website is back.

Aesop said...

An imaginary 10-17% mortality rate is simply recockulous, and anybody putting that out, based on what they clearly don't know, is either insane or smoking crack.

Those are Spanish Flu/Black Death numbers, based on mountains of horsesh*t, and no detectable pony anywhere. If they weighed out the factual underpinning for them, you'd need a gram scale from a drug dealer to get to a detectable level of truth.

Call me when somebody reliable has actual real-world data.

The only way you'd ever get there would be, firstly, that whatever is spreading is not coronavirus. And there's no evidence for that from anywhere, except breathless unsubstantiated shaky-cam videos and "ZOMG!" one-off tweets from twits in China.

Leave that crap to Alex Jones.

Aesop said...

The JAMA article better, but still functionally worthless.
To wit:

a) 138 patients is too small of a sample to be statistically valid.

b) It's the 138 patients who got pneumonia from the Kung Flu.
Not 138 patients just with Kung Flu.
What's left unstated is What percentage of Kung Flu patients don't get NCIP???
IOW, if Kung Flu becomes NCIP in 2% of cases, the mortality overall isn't 4.3% overall, it's 4.3% of 2%, or 0.086%. (Hint: That's less lethal than common flu.)
But if Kung Flu leads to NCIP in 95% of all cases, then the overall mortality from Kung Flu moves back up to nearly 4.1%.

Cleverly, the article's authors provide no reference of how often Kung Flu leads to NCIP. Hence, worthless. (It's like telling me you're flying at an altitude of 10,000', without noting that you're doing it in the Himalayas, 15,000' below the level of the intervening mountain ranges. If you do that IRL, you're gonna crash and burn.)
Figures don't lie, but liars figure.
If these are actual medical doctors, as opposed to D.O.M. doctors, or witch doctors, they should know this, cold, without me telling you.
Yet, they evidently don't.

c) I have no idea how closely the standard of care in Chinese hospitals approaches Western standards of practice. I.e I don't know if #8 Wuhan General Hospital is closer to the level of care of the Congolese Main Hospital, Beauty Parlor, and Muffler Shop; or of the Mayo Clinic or Massachussetts General.
Which it is makes a yuuuuuge difference.

All three of those factors combine to make this crapola, with the patina of authority.

Not the same as actual medical news you can use.

Reltney McFee said...

Outstanding points, every one (...but, you already knew that...)

Indeed, what fraction of the reported case numbers (a)are in Wuhan, and (b) in This Particular Hospital's Catchment Area, even?

Thanks for the clarity.

Anonymous said...

40,000+ officially recognized cases in China.
900+ deaths.
Wasn't it less than 30,000 cases a few days ago?
It is still out of control. Exponential growth.
It started in December.
January 9 we heard nothing about it.
This is February 9.
What will March 9 look like?
April 9?

I saw the photos of convention center quarantine facilities.
In a few days they will probably resemble the Dante's inner circles of hell.
No nearby bathroom facilities for a disease with symptoms that include explosive diarrhea and projectile vomiting?
With the huge open areas with rows of cots, everyone will get the 2019-nCov, whether they had it or not.
And everyone will get to watch the dead being bagged up and taken away.

The good news is only twelve cases here in the US.
Pray we can still say the same thing after two more months of exposure here in the US.

Wash your hands. Prep. Stay out of crowds.

Anonymous said...

Coronavirus cab survive up to nine days on surfaces. "Only" 4-5 days is more likely.

This answers a big question I had. It lasts for days. If 2019-nCov does break out here, assume anything you touch could be contaminated. But it should die off in the shipping container full of Chinese products on the boat over here. If they can still ship cheap crap over here in a few months?

Aesop said...

@Anonymous 7:34P

Corona virus includes precisely NO symptoms such as explosive diarrhea nor projectile vomiting. Early reports, which included utter horsesh*t, include this, but it's not supported in the literature.

Check yourself before you wreck yourself.

If they have those symptoms, they probably don't have corona virus.

The question you're missing like an iceberg in the foggy shipping lanes becomes,
"If they have those symptoms, what DO they have?"

And you can't answer that.

Anonymous said...

"Figures don't lie, but liars figure". Amen brother. And don't forget, if things start to get out hand in the West the 'authorities' will lie their asses off too.

Adino said...'s one thing I am certain of......

Surely, not EVERYBODY was Kung Flu Dying......surely....