Saturday, February 15, 2020

More Fun With Math

Over at Bayou Renaissance Man blog, Peter (who, per usual, is taking a rational approach) and commenters were discussing the Kung Flu, and its mortality rate.

It's 2-4%, with an average of 3%.
The ones hospitalized, by definition, are the most serious cases.
That makes their numbers look worse than 3%, but they're not, necessarily.

It's probably too late to contain it, even with a border wall. But a wall will help against everything.

But looking at flu, with a 0.1% mortality, this is about 30 times worse.
That would be 1.5M deaths in the US in a year.
And perhaps as many as 9M.

Compared to 50K US flu deaths/yr that's definitely a thing.
The hospital system in the US skates by on a razor's edge in normal times.
Trust me on this.

You throw in a bonus pandemic, and you can definitely cancel Christmas.
We'll be treating people for this in tents, in the parking lot, all year long, until it burns itself out, or they develop an effective vaccine.

1.5M US Kung Flu deaths means another 150K in CA alone, for example.
That's 3K dead/week. That's about 50/county, one to three/day in every hospital ER in this state alone (CA has 58 counties, and 430 hospitals from Oregon to Mexico.).
And for every death, there will be 33 more people infected, 2/3 will probably come to an ER, and 1/3 of them serious enough to need hospitalization.
Another death/day, 20 additional visits, and 11 more admits daily, all year, is a yuuuuuuuuuuuge impact. For everyone, from broken toes to heart attacks and strokes.
In every ER, everywhere it goes. (At last look, there were 42 states already sending Kung Flu test samples to CDC. So 84% of the country already has legit concerns, right now. That's addressing reality, not panic. Recognize the difference.)

You'd better hope this doesn't get here.
And if it does, and it goes pandemic, cancelling Christmas is going to be reality, not doom-and-gloom.

That's how the napkin math works out, middle case, if this becomes a pandemic like the annual flu is.
It could be better. Like a total nothingburger.
I could also be worse.
Like 9M deaths.

Wee bit of variance there.
Plan as you see fit.
And remember how your neighbors act when there's going to be a hurricane, or a blizzard.
That's Joe Average, 24/7/365/ever.

If you haven't already got N95 or better masks, forget about them.
1) They're mostly made in China
2) as of last week, they're a "strategic national resource" for China
3) with tens to potentially hundreds of millions of people on quarantine lockdown there, they won't be going to work there to make more, nor exporting any even if they do.

Expect that state of affairs to last until about 2021 or 2022.
No, really.

Oh, and Wash. Your. Hands.
Like we told you last month.


nick flandrey said...

Someone decided to end the experiment in Japan, at least for US citizens....

"The United States will tomorrow evacuate the 428 Americans trapped aboard a cruise ship in Japan as the number of coronavirus-infected passengers continues to climb.

Two State Department planes will be dispatched to airlift the stranded citizens and their families to Travis Air Force Base in Sacramento, California.

Once on US soil, they will undergo a further 14 days of quarantine, sparking 'apprehension' among passengers who have been under lock-down aboard the Diamond Princess since February 5. "

Or maybe they wanted to get control of their blood samples. CDC said they need samples throughout the course of the disease (and they're getting them currently from the quarantined evacuees) for a serum test.

In any case, they're gonna be closer to home soon.


(and I hope we don't have a contamination rate among caregivers like we did for ebola)

Anonymous said...

So...guess this IS the next thing. Not Ebola at least.
Still...Time to assess the preps and supplies and top things off
Boat Guy

Aesop said...

Travis and March Air Force Bases are the designated go-to containment quarantine sites in CA.

This news is the first sane response I've heard since this started.
Hopefully it's a trend.

Anonymous said...

"Plan as you see fit."

As tragic as the events are in China right now they've also given the rest of us a solid heads up of what could be coming here and the consequences. No way to know exactly but where they are now we could just as well be in one, perhaps two months.

I was always one of those who always put off prepping in any serious way. Not that I didn't feel it was important but clearly it wasn't anything important enough to me to actually do anything.

Luckily sites like this one and many many more lay out pretty clearly what you should get, how much and for how long. Even have a proper first aid kit now. I won't have time to take a first aid course but there is lots of material online to review plus videos. Not the same as proper training but you make do with what you have the best you can.

Thanks for your work here, Aesop, and hard earned insights into situations like this. God Bless.

nick flandrey said...

Unfortunately there is other news...

"it appears that the Cambodian authorities allowed 144 passengers to fly to Malaysia after disembarking on Friday, apparently without even screening them thoroughly."

Patient 1 is an 80yo female, US citizen.

This time, a hundred plus vectors have been released...


Anonymous said...

You can't wash your hands every time you touch something. You can't wear a face mask 24/7 and if you did the likely hood is that you would become infected FROM the dirty face mask. AND as you pointed out, the virus will get here and go pandemic. So what it really comes down to is most everyone will be exposed and some will die, some will get pretty sick, some will get a little sick. So explain again why we should turn our world upside down in a futile effort to not catch this virus? IN FACT catching it early, before the hospitals are overwhelmed, might just be the best thing that could happen to you.

John said...

Yeah, bring them to the USA. Where we have lawyers.

Lawyer: Nurse Kaci Hickox won't obey Ebola quarantine - CNN

(Oct 29, 2014) A nurse quarantined against her will in New Jersey after treating Ebola patients won't heed Maine officials' instructions to seclude herself, a lawyer says.

nick flandrey said...

Different time, different leadership?


nick flandrey said...

" So explain again why we should turn our world upside down in a futile effort to not catch this virus?"

--nothing's stopping you, but you might want to ask your loved ones if they want to roll those dice.

--there is some truth to getting it while there is still care available, but again, dice roll

--whatever else the CDC is, delaying as much as we can so that a vaccine and treatment can be developed sounds good to me.

--I've avoided regular flu for the last 10 yrs using the same strategies, and I not only have young kids in public school, I volunteer teach there 2 days a month. So it's not impossible.


Anonymous said...

In the CNBC update post yesterday about the cruise ship they linked to an article about 1,716 Chinese Healthcare Workers getting sick from CVID-2019 or whatever they call it today. Scroll way down to the bottom.

"It appears infections among medical workers peaked in mid-January and have “rapidly” decreased since, according to the World Health Organization." It sounds like the virus took the unknowing and the unwary early healthcare workers. Now it will infect the Gilligans amongst them. The downside is these Gilligans will also infect their coworkers at the cafeteria or during a smoke break. Maybe they will infect them as they help them disrobe from the biosafety hazmat suits they are wearing?

Every Day we keep this from going Epidemic in the US is a blessing, and another day we have to prepare for it. Prep your supplies. Buy your favorite canned foods when they are on sale. Buy up a supply of your necessities now, especially those with the "Made in China" label.

George True said...

I have been wondering about the possibilities (if any) of repurposing other things into effective face masks. Such as automotive air filters, HEPA filters, etc. It might take some time and effort, but if a good, snug fit around mouth and nose could be fabricated, would any of these things be at least the filtering equivalent of the N95 masks?

Aesop said...


Google a little farther, and find out how that all worked out for Nurse Mimi Crybabypants.
Hint: It wasn't a happy ending.

And as nick pointed out, HopeyDopey ain't running the rodeo any more.

James Nelson said...

I work for a large hospital system in the Midwest. Every winter the system maxes out in terms of patient census to where patients are on stretchers in the hallways in most of the hospitals in the system. Some for more than 24 hours.
I was admitted for a procedure last month and waited in recovery for 1/2 a day and this was in their flagship hospital. There is no stretch for something like this virus. How fast will it spread with recovery rooms and hallways being full of sick people? You can't take the same care and precautions as would be possible in a room.
Just fyi, I sat in on an infection control meeting for one of their smaller hospitals a couple of months ago. They were emphasizing hand hygiene and following up with surveys that everyone knew was coming. Third shift compliance was less than 50%. At te same meeting it was revealed that 3 new mothers were infected due to one careless employee. Good luck everybody.

Charles in VA said...

@ Aesop,

I hate to be the one picking nits here, but you seem to have gone weak in the knees about the whole "trusting numbers" issue.

Your statement about "the hospitalized cases are by definition the worst cases" has no basis in fact. You have no idea how many are dead or seriously infected...welded into their homes. No one does, not even the CCP.

If I'm wrong about this and you make me a convincing case otherwise, I'm not going to have a tantrum.

I fully believe this IS a "Frankenvirus". Who released it and under what conditions is an open question in my mind. There is credible motive all around.

I am also not too concerned about it. My grand niece returned from Beijing about 3 weeks ago and is not symptomatic at all. I don't hold my life in such high regard that I'll act the fool for the sole purpose of preserving it.

Yeah, I know that's anecdotal evidence...but it beats no evidence at all. To my knowledge, no Caucasian has died from the Kung Flu to date. That's an interesting little factoid if you ask me.

So, I'm engaging in a casual campaign of common sense precautions that does NOT include masks,hazmat suits or bugging out to Antarctica. Washing hands regularly, staying away from crowds as much as possible and keeping my distance from people when it's not possible.

On the vaccine topic...I'll take my chances with the Kung Flu. I trust God a LOT more than I trust my Government. I'm 60 years old and I've only had the flu ONCE in my life...which coincided with the one and only time I consented to receiving a flu shot. If it becomes "mandatory", then as the Irish say, "we'll have business".

Aesop said...

I'm not trusting any massaged numbers, Charles.
There's ample precedent from other coronavirus outbreaks, and I know how medical staff works.
People hospitalized are those too sick to kick out.
That's how it works.

Also, the median age in China is nearly 40.
They are not a young society by any means.

They may fudge some because of political correctness and Party affiliation, but the disease affects those over 50 more harshly, and that's a substantial hunk of their population.

As for what it is or isn't, I'm going with coronavirus-n2019 until something definitive comes out to the contrary.

And we already have reports that there's a simultaneous outbreak of latent Pulmonic Plague starting there, which could be packed into this thing.

Also, you can't get the flu from flu shots. Not humanly possible.
What is humanly possible is to get vaccinated for the tri- or quadrivalent vaccine in any given year, and have that shot be totally ineffective against any number of the 500-900 actual strains of flu identified as rampant in North America in every year since they started testing.

Most people don't get that concept, because no one tells them the numbers.

Some years the flu shot "works" and it's 90% effective against the major strains.
Other years they guess poorly, and it works only against a small fraction of possible strains. I get the flu shot every year, but I could still get the flu, in fact multiple times, (and HAVE), not because the flus shot gave it to me, but because 10,000 snot-nosed patients did.

But don't worry, there is no shot for this strain of coronavirus, at least yet, and even if there was, there will be multiple strains of it too. So if it goes off here, you could get it multiple times, and any one of them could kill you. In fact, the re-infection itself might be the worst factor of all, causing the same hyper-immune response that probably helped kill ore people with Spanish Flu in 1918-19.


lineman said...

See this link on why we might be less susceptible to it...

Charles in VA said...

@ Aesop,

"And we already have reports that there's a simultaneous outbreak of latent Pulmonic Plague starting there, which could be packed into this thing."

Yeah. I've seen anecdotal evidence of mutation rates off the charts for "natural" viri (I'm not entirely convinced that any terrestrial virus is "natural". There's a reason flu season coincides with Earth's retrograde passage through Venus' tail). That's more reason for me to believe it IS a "Frankenvirus".

"Also, you can't get the flu from flu shots"

That was NOT the case when they were using LIVE virus in the vaccines...which was the case when I contracted it. You can choose to trust the Government, the CDC, NIH, or the WHO if you like...but I am not, do not, and will not. And my 60 year record stands.

I do get the concept of flue vaccine ineffectiveness. In my eyes, no upside and potentially YUGE down side. Not even debatable for me. A man has to walk according to his beliefs and faith. I do it, and I don't look down my nose at others who do the same even if I believe them to be wrong.

Bottom line is this. No matter how this turns out, I will not live in fear. The Spirit of Fear does not come from our Lord, but from Satan. Everyone owes God one death, and I am no exception (the Rapture notwithstanding). I'll meet it where I find it and we will leave this life as equals.

God Bless.

Charles in VA said...

@ lineman,

I'm skeptical of your source (ZeroHedge), and I know of nothing you could provide that would change my mind on that subject. I might, however, be able to produce sources that could sway YOUR opinion...but only if you are genuinely open to seeing it.

And I say this fully WANTING to believe what you're postulating.

A.B. Prosper said...

Kung Flu or not anyone with an IQ above room temperature is washing his or her hands multiple times a day, basically any time they leave home. Not at the health care worker level but a hell of a lot

Its a dirty world out there especially here in California.

nick flandrey said...

WRT numbers, I think at this point it's fair to say there is no credible reason for the chinese PTB to INFLATE numbers. If anything, the overwhelming anecdotal evidence is that they are UNDER counting both deaths and infected.

So take the reported numbers as a baseline. You can 6X the deaths, as some have suggested, without changing the infected, and you get much higher lethality. 6X both and you get the same percentage, double the infected, 6x the deaths and ..... until we get more info from people sick in western nations, we really can't judge lethality EXCEPT to take the reported numbers as a lower limit.

As far as transmission, well, cruise ships say it's pretty transmissible, at least under those conditions. Same same for the family members getting sick. How much is "pretty"?? Who knows.

If it gets out, short term is going to be much worse than currently. IE there will be restrictions where there aren't any now. There will be shortages where there aren't any now. There will be sick people where there aren't any now.

NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS from this point onward, everything points to it having impacts here, if ONLY because of the economic effects of china's economy cratering.

Therefore, get prepped up. I'm treating it as if a hurricane was forming and on track for my house. Don't know if it will swing wide, die out, intensify, or anything else, but I know there is a storm forming. I've NEVER been unhappy that I prepped with a hurricane forming. Never.

OF course, YMMV. Maybe you'd like to rob liquor stores, rape and pillage, etc. Maybe you're just waiting for party time to get started. In that case, do nothing. Either way you'll get lucky.

The rest of us will be watching to see how that works out for you.


Charles in VA said...

@ AB Prosper, February 15, 2020 at 1:56 PM,

Totally agree. It's just common sense. I've noticed my own AB soap usage is up since this shit began.

Charles in VA said...


Cleaning house for a showing tomorrow and came across a .50 cal. ammo can full of 165 grain 30.06 ammo I forgot I had.

How is that NOT fun?!

Day after tomorrow I'm going to the LONG range!

I don't care WHO you are...that there's FUN! Slo-mo sub MOA 30.06 bolt action FUN.

Marina said...

Daily update, so subscribe: Martenson calls it the Ninja virus. -- Also, great site:

Charles in VA said...

@ Marina@ 3:43 PM

Sorry, gal,

I'm all burned out on the hype.

Text me when you're about to die from Kung Flu.

lineman said...

That's why I put might and I really don't give a rats ass whether you believe anything I provided I just saw that and saw your question and put it there for you to peruse...

Charles in VA said...

@ Lineman,
I respect that, and I understand the thinking behind it. I felt I had to put it out there for consideration. We're all entitled to question what's put in front of us, wouldn't you agree?

Although I would say that I am very careful to vet the sources I quote here in anticipation of them being called into question. That seems reasonable to me.

There is a difference between calling into question your beliefs and your sources.

I'd hope you'd see that difference. I'm not trolling for enemies. I have enough of those already...and I don't count you among them...yet.

lineman said...

Listen bub most of us have been commenting here for a long damn time and we have seen your kind come and go so to say we aren't really impressed with all your braggadocio is putting it mildly...You see a lot of us have met and broke bread with one another so we don't need to show off or act like asses to one another when we disagree...So if your actually interested in discussing things like an adult then it would help if you dialed it back and didn't come across like a knowitall otherwise ROWTYBS and keep acting like a tool and you will continue to get shit from the regulars...Oh and if you think your all that then come to one of the meetups we have and give it your best shot...

nick flandrey said...

Trolls gonna troll. And Chas is a troll.


nick flandrey said...

And has reading comprehension issues, as the link provided was to a story at zerohedge, the SOURCE was

zerohedge is mostly an aggregator, with occasional articles from commentors, or "Tyler".

Almost every other article has a credited byline.


Charles in VA said...
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Charles in VA said...
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lineman said...

Blah blah blah bitch or should I call you DMV Gringo...Just a matter of time before you get the boot...

Charles in VA said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Charles in VA said...


Are you the bloke in charge of given me the boot, Govenor?

Come to VA...we'll treat ya right as rain!

nick flandrey said...

Not feeding the troll.


Charles in VA said...
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Charles in VA said...
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Bear Claw Chris Lapp said...

Charles thinks he was at the Richmond rally. Give him a rest.

Aesop said...


Dial it back, man.
Try decaf.

Stick with the topic, not with the commenters.

Anonymous said...

Absolute BS. Are we to believe the fatality rate based on the figures provided by the Chinese politburo? Now I for one trust this about as much as I trust gas station sushi that I see a cat lick and then vomit. Apparently our satellite have detected unusual amounts of emissions that are the results of of chemicals that result from the burning of human bodies. Now why would the Chinese be burning large number of bodies? They must be short on fuel no?

Anonymous said...

Recent report from the Singapore Ministry of Health:

"Wash your hands" advice included.