Concerning Common Sense



A myth from Pliny the Elder. But only for ostriches.

We'd have made these comments at the site in question, but we have evidently offended the host's delicate sensibilities, such that we are apparently verboten from either cheering or jeering there, let alone apologizing. (Not sorry for telling the truth, but that his feelings are hurt.) His site, his rules, his butthurt. So be it. (Oh, and Fran, assuming I am the He Who Shall Not Be Named there, I use the alias because I work in Hollywood. Since the 90s. For a decade and more, it put food on my table and a roof over my head, and I'm addicted to making a living. I commend to your fund of historical agnosticism both mark twain, and Silence Dogood. Not to mention john Wayne and cary Grant. The precedent is long established. I own what I write, and I always sign it. I am as much Aesop as you are Fran. Just not on my birth certificate. {My mistake. - A.} I like a lot of what you write, or I wouldn't bother with your site. Get over yourself, and stop being a Drama Queen. You'll be happier for it.)

Under the heading of "Stay In Your Lane", we bring you a sterling example of how not to deal with coronavirus, or any other viral outbreak, if it becomes as endemic as the flu:

"The reaction to this new disease that gets the most air time and column-inches has been hysteria: a pseudo-panic more appropriate to a potentially world-ending event – and I have a sneaking feeling that it’s mostly a media artifact.  

Nevertheless, I’ve been seeing emissions such as this one rather frequently:

Such recommendations, to my mind, are more dangerous than the Coronavirus itself. To follow it in its entirety would be to abandon society, personal affection, and all external involvements in the name of germophobia. Among other things, it would result in a severe reduction of economic activity – and a healthy economy is one of the requirements for maintaining a healthy population. Contrary to a lot of Leftists’ opinions, medical products and services do not grow on trees.  

One respondent said that “some temporary adaptation to environment may be necessary.” If we were talking about the Bubonic Plague, I might agree – and the response that physician recommended would be more appropriate. Indeed, it would be near to mandatory, especially for anyone with dependents. But this is a flu-like virus that has a mortality rate (reported) of about 5% — and apparently that mortality rate is skewed by age and other factors. So an "adaptation to environment" that amounts to huddling behind a locked door strikes me as excessive, and probably worse for us than maintaining a reasonable facsimile of our usual affairs."

Matt Bracken's list, contrary to that assertion, is how you stop a pandemic. They are nothing but simple common sense and distilled wisdom. They're even a pretty good way to make flu orders of magnitude less severe every year, if people had half the wits they think they do.

Sorry it offends the novelist's sense of propriety, but viruses cannot be reasoned with. If he would do so, Fran Porretto can shove his head in a very dark place all he wants. It's a free country. And the media may indeed be hyping this beyond rationality, as we've noted on this blog. But the fact remains that coronavirus enjoys a mortality rate of between 2-4%, with an average of 3%.

Influenza, FTR, runs at about 0.1%.

3% versus 0.1%? "Well then, this would be more, wouldn't it?"

 

Influenza kills about 50K/yr here since ever.

Thirty times worse, assuming influenza-like spread, would be 1,500,000 Dead.

But it could be worse still.

Depending on the total spread, Kung Flu coronavirus could kill as many as 9,000,000 here.

For Common Core grads, that would be 3% of 300,000,000 people.

If it becomes a pandemic here. Which it may, or may not.

Or, it could kill none.

It depends entirely on how far and wide it spreads here.

12 cases isn't worrying me much.

At 12,000, the cat's out of the bag, and it's almost certainly going to go nationwide.

(Ask China about that. With a pop. of about 1B, they're looking at a potential for 30,000,000 dead, from simple, unadulterated Kung Flu coronavirus. That is "Bubonic Plague" at those numbers, and it's possible that they're pretty handy with an abacus, and have figured that out already.)

 

But once it does spread, that 3% average mortality is pretty well carved in biological stone.

 

Shoving your head into a hole about that reality that doesn't make it go away.

And taking reasonable precautions to limit that spread will not destroy all life, affection, and commerce in the nation. At most, it'll be a minor annoyance for a season or three.

 

So if it does become widespread here, the best thing one can say is that such willful ignorance will be its own reward. Hence the Gilligan Effect*. Except for those others with whom Gilligan comes into direct contact. Bummer, friends and family. Guess Gilligan's not really your friend after all.

 

If one cannot wrap their head around such common sense, and grasp those basic scientific realities, perhaps one should stick to writing works of fiction. But learning anything from research pretty much goes by the wayside at that point, doesn't it?

 

"Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp, or what's a heaven for?"

- Robert Browning

 

 

UPDATE: From Comments (h/t commenter nick flandrey), direct from the usual gang of idiots at the CDC, on what measures they will recommend if/when this breaks out widespread over here:

" FOR EXAMPLE, IN GENERAL, SOCIAL DISTANCING, SCHOOL CLOSURES, CANCELING MASS GATHERINGS, SORT OF NONPHARMACEUTICAL INTERVENTIONS WE’RE TALKING ABOUT THINGS LIKE TELEMEDICINE, TELESCHOOLING, TELEWORKING SO THAT AT A SOCIETAL LEVEL WE TRY TO DISRUPT THE SPREAD. IN A SITUATION LIKE THIS WHERE WE DON’T HAVE A VACCINE AND WE DON’T YET HAVE A SPECIFIC COUNTERMEASURE, THOSE KIND OF NONPHARMACEUTICAL INTERVENTIONS AT A COMMUNITY LEVEL ARE REALLY IMPORTANT."

IOW, everything the MD linked by Matt Bracken said, except turned up to 11.
Look, I'm the first and loudest one to point out that the CDC isn't the brightest lights on the Christmas tree (in fact, they usually underperform even my lowest expectations), but when even they're telling you this thing is going to affect your daily life a wee bit more than the flu, maybe suck it up and listen up, no matter how smart you think you are.




 

 

 

 

 

 

*(The Gilligan Effect is that in every group, someone is the dumbest left edge of the bell curve of IQ. And that person is the weakest link in every problem, including pandemics. If the castaways had killed Gilligan in S1E2, the show is over in a week or two when they get rescued. True in TV land, true IRL. Don't be Gilligan. No, really.)