Sunday, February 16, 2020

Today On The DUH! Channel...

h/t IOTW Report

The White House doesn't trust China's coronavirus numbers.
No, really.


Yeah, who could possibly have seen that coming?

Oh, wait, that would be everyone else.


kurt9 said...

We just have to wait for another couple of weeks to see how many cases develop outside of China and what the death rate is. My guess is we're looking at a 1918 Spanish Flu level event over the next 6 months or so.

I read somewhere the reason why so many people are dying in China is because they are all smokers and being smoker is a rick factor for this virus.

The Gray Man said...

I’ve written two pieces, with more to come, on American Partisan and the main motif running through my pieces is that however bad we think it is, it’s guaranteed to be worse because the Chinese can not, by their nature, be honest in regard to anything at all. The Chinese lie and steal as a default action prior to trying anything else.

Bezzle said...

Has this bug yet managed to kill anyone outside of a curiously succinct Manchurian-genomed subset of the species?

--You'd figure half of India and Southeast Asia would be blowing snot-ropes by now, but nope.

nick flandrey said...

@mike, I'd say that any current cases are in the "one here, one there" and look like the flu. We need a few more doublings before it catches anyone's attention in the third world shitholes. Life there is cheap and medical care is non-existent for the poor, which is most of them.

This is going to tear thru the favelas and shanty towns, but with those huge masses of people, the current infections are probably just noise in the system (unless a slant-eyed foreigner is involved.)

Unless it really is engineered or selected for effect- but I think it's still too early to say it only kills asians, since that's currently the only population it's loose in.


Bezzle said...

> We need a few more doublings before it catches anyone's attention
> in the third world shitholes. Life there is cheap and medical care
> is non-existent for the poor, which is most of them.

That actually describes most of China outside of the narrow Potemkin Village corridors (i.e., the gleaming metropoli that are the only thing the western press ever shows) -- a full quarter of that fucking country doesn't even have in-door electricity or plumbing yet (hand-wave to bronze-age Guizhou & surrounding environs). And yet the ChiComs were all over it seemingly before there were more than a few dozen cases of sniffles in a craphole where 400,000 oldsters choke to death in the smog every winter. Even had the viral sequence all ready and waiting for us.

Meanwhile, there's around 780 cases outside of China by this point, which is a sufficiently large data-set for statistical analysis. This germ is killing *nobody* who is not indigenous Chinese, and it doesn't appear inordinately infectious outside of the oriental inclination either.

Anonymous said...

From what I gather, from the same things everyone else can look at, it seems those with a greater amount of ACE2 receptors (east asians AKA Orientals) and smokers (now mostly Orientals and 3rd worlders) are much more susceptible to this virus.

Perhaps the reason Wypipo are getting a bit sick while becoming "super-transmitters" and not succumbing to the Kung Flu...

nick flandrey said...

It's an interesting thought, but I'm more likely to believe the chinese would depopulate africa and fill it with chinese, long before they'd be playing around with depopulating china.

There were theories like that about AIDS when it was first recognized. Still makes sense.


commoncents said...

President Trump at the Daytona 500 - VIDEOS

Anonymous said...

"President Trump at the Daytona 500 - VIDEOS"

Yeah. As a Canuck, how the fuck did you guys deserve someone like him. I'm being facetious. I do know.

We've got Mr. Dress Up in turn.

Ray - SoCal said...

Basic Question I have not seen an answer for.

Why has CoronaVirus killed more people than Sars?

Or is this another unknown currently?

It seems until a few days ago testing for CoronaVirus had issues, but now there are test kits that may actually work being produced. This would impact numbers. Seems a chest x Ray was being used to confirm coranaVirus diagnosis.

OvergrownHobbit said...

With disposable face masks a non-starter now, I was wondering about making reusable fabric masks.

Assume elite sewing skills and a well stocked wall of fabrics including plenty of elastic tape.

What kind of fabric and how many layers?

How to disinfect? Is it like your paint respirator, where you wash it in warm water and detergent, dunk it in 10% bleach solution, then rinse thoroughly in clean water and hang dry (preferably in full sunlight?)

Run 'em through the dishwasher on the pots and pans setting? (This has almost as good a kill rate as an autoclave, at least for staph. aureus. Viruses?)

I can find little hard info on the internets. D'you have any pointers?

daniel_day said...

mike18xx "This germ is killing *nobody* who is not indigenous Chinese"
Close, but not quite right. There has been one Japanese fatality, an 80-year-old, so far.

nick flandrey said...

@OvergrownHobbit , the chinese issued instructions. I can't find then tonight but will link. try as a starting point.


Ray - SoCal said...

Answering my question.

Per Wikipedia the Sars becomes contagious when the patient becomes very sick, in the 2nd week usually.

CoronaVirus seems it can be spread, even by people not showing symptoms.

So if the sars patient is isolated, you stop the spread.

Canada was a mess with Sars. US had no deaths. Death rate was 11%. CoronaVirus is per China supposedly 2.1% or so.

Aesop said...

@Overgrown Hobbit,

Filtration is not something you can do with fabric.
You're asking how to make an NBC/CBRN mask out of a rag bag.
The short answer is: don't even think about trying.

You either have an actual, functional filter mask, or you don't.

Thinking you do, when you don't, will get you infected, and possibly killed.

Anonymous said...

Huh. Here's a handy chart, showing the ACE2 receptor count/susceptibility:

Long link, found it here:

Answered my wondering about full-blood Finns...

-MN Steel

George True said...

@Hobbit: I was at a Wal-Mart here in Phoenix AZ yesterday. N95 and R95 masks were still available, in the paint department.

I too have wondered if other filters can be repurposed into an effective mask. Things like automotive air filters and HEPA filters. I suspect it could be done, if one has the skill set and the time. The main thing would be to craft a good effective seal around the edges.

Anonymous said...

Re masks:
I was thinking along the same lines as OvergrownHobbit. Another "opinion" I've read is that the mask needs to be fitted close to the face and if you can breathe comfortably then it's not enough protection. In a medical journal regarding surfaces they claimed 140 degrees would kill the virus so why not an oven? Obviously, you wouldn't want to bring the mask into the house but a solar oven (easy to make) with combined heat and humidity should do the trick. I know, it's unproven but when masks are in short supply, a sterilized N95 seems like a better option than "rags" even tightly bound ones.

A Texan said...

@ Aesop:

"You're asking how to make an NBC/CBRN mask out of a rag bag. The short answer is: don't even think about trying."
OK, how about coffee filters? Maybe doubled or tripled up? People haven't tried to clear the shelves of them, YET, so if it would work to some degree (even if just to keep sputum IN, and not let a sick person infect others as easily), would it be worth trying?

If so, what kind of a housing for the mask itself would help it be effective, and which one(s) would be utter crap?

Anonymous said...

But when they're walking around and spraying chemicals in outfits that look like they belong on the set of Ghostbusters, the Space Years...most likely they aren't overestimating.
I'm kind of curious how anyone estimates the death rate based on these numbers.
How do we arrive at 3 percent?

nick flandrey said...

ALL the numbers in china are suspect. Most are probably way low given the actions of the .gov. You don't weld closed whole apartment buildings for the flu....

and while it is possible to estimate deaths from interviews with crematorium operators, and other anecdotal sources, there isn't any similar way to estimate infection rates.

We'll have a much better idea in a month, after a couple more doublings of the patients outside of china, with enough elapsed time to see how many die.

That's pretty much all we can really do, wait for more people to die. (or not)


Aesop said...

Coffee filters, by definition and design, don't work, nor are they intended to.
If coffee passes through the filter, so will virus droplets.
When you find a coffee filter than only produces clear unflavored water, you're on the right track. But you probably couldn't breath through that.

I repeat: homemade half-ass filters won't work.
More importantly, they'll "work" until they don't, and then fail catastrophically, but you won't know that's happened until 2-14 days later, when you have the infection. And have probably already passed it on to friends and family, unbeknown to yourself or them.

So much fail there; best not to try.

Nobody (who has an IQ above fungus) is estimating the Chines death rate based on anything.
I assume it's entirely fabricated.
The 3% number for coronavirus is based on empirical evidence from prior actual outbreaks, which don't rely on Chinese propaganda.

nick flandrey said...

BTW, there are still plenty of masks available on ebay, they just cost more than most people would really like to spend.

It's a bit like the motorcycle helmet joke, if you have a $5 head, buy a $5 helmet....

Buy the genuine article before cobbling something together.


nick flandrey said...

Seriously, get online and buy some. I can't help but think most people still won't.

If most people listened to advice, they'd have stocked up during Ebola '14, or some time in the next 5 years, and wouldn't need to worry now.

Gloves, masks, AB soap, hand sanitizer, bleach, lysol, tyvek.

Food, water, meds, comms.

Ammo, guns, support gear, ammo, guns.

All the rest of the various lists.


nick flandrey said...

Way more info about respiratory protection than you ever wanted.... from cdc

on reuse

Basic instructions for all ppe in healthcare

Frequently Asked Questions about Respirators and their Use

PPE sequence, graphic pdf


nick flandrey said...

And ONLY because I said I'd link it upthread, not because I think this is a good idea...

Admittedly, it might help slow the spread by keeping a sick person's nasty droplets from spraying around the room and onto surfaces. It's not gonna keep a well person well, though.

Go online and buy some real masks.


(yeah I do have some listed, and yeah I am asking a ton for them. I had the stock, which was a gamble and tied up some of my money, and I'm risking not having any that I sell later, when I might need them. There are plenty of sellers with lower prices than mine, selling a box at a time. Go BUY SOME.)

@aesop, if you think this whole comment is a bad idea, just delete it.

nick flandrey said...

And the latest numbers, ex-china in a graph form....

From this article, newest at top format may push graph down the page...


Anonymous said...

Well well well. Looky here folks. Buffalo jump muh dick ya fucking Boomer cucks. Aesop I will be waiting to see your response/apology along with the oarsman Bracken in the near future. Yeah we know you won't but you should. A real man can admit when he is wrong.

Aesop said...

You'll get an apology when you can demonstrate that Gun Woodstock was directly responsible for the swing votes on this bill, rather than a joke. If that happened, you should be able to link to the statements of the [D] senators in question within the next 24 hours.
I'll wait while you go find those quotes.

So tell me, in the meantime, how many other anti-2A votes has VA lost since Gun Woodstock, after they rammed them up your ass in spite of that silly shit?

When you can admit that it did jack and shit for them, and show that it "saved" you this year's AWB, then you can cock-a-doodle-do to your heart's content, O Brave Anonymous Keyboard Commando.

The odds are instead, that having done nothing, after an election, you'll get your very own AWB next year, and you still won't have done dick to prevent them from being able to enforce it, because that would take actual work.

And if you'd done something like this is all those sanctuary counties starting back in early January,

instead of wasting time and money, and squandering momentum on pointless Gun Woodstock, you'd actually have something to crow about now besides holding another pointless rally. But again, that would take work and consistency, rather than a spaz-gasm one-trick pony for four whole hours on a holiday weekend.

They don't give a shit about 22,000 people in one place.
They're scared sh*tless about 22 people in 1000 places.

Learn THAT lesson, and stop half-assing this.

Your ball, fucktard.

15Fixer said...

A thoughtful essay at The Burning Platform, if you don't already read it.

ADS said...

I'm not sure the 500 guys in that one county would have stood up without the momentum and assurance that they have 25,000 allies willing to walk into prepared ground in-state.

Of the four defecting democrats, Deeds supports a state awb, Edwards and Petersen vote against castle doctrine, and Surovell's website has the usual screeching about assault weapons and bump stocks and a special note how the Heller supreme court case "reverses 200 years of precedent". I dont see these senators as likely defectors, but something made them pause. No official statements that I could find from them yet.

Again, the protest is complementary to, not in place of, local efforts to block enforcement of an awb. Porque no la dos, as the meme goes.

nick flandrey said...

Some good detail about the evacuees from the Diamond Princess...

Whoever posted upthread or under one of the other posts that they watch the Nebraska med center, I guess they're busy today...


Anonymous said...

Hello Aesop

Have not seen any other comment mention, Anthony Fauci (NIH) reads your blog, slowly, you arrogant blogger.

Q. Was it a mistake to quarantine the passengers aboard the Diamond Princess in Japan?

A. The original statement, which is not unreasonable, was that the best thing to do with these people was to keep them safely quarantined in an infection-control manner on the ship. As it turned out, that was very ineffective in preventing spread on the ship. So the quarantine process failed. I mean, I'd like to sugarcoat it and try to be diplomatic about it, but it failed. I mean, there were people getting infected on that ship. So something went awry in the process of quarantining on that ship. I don't know what it was, but a lot of people got infected on that ship.

keep up the good work.

denver jeff

Bezzle said...

> They don't give a shit about 22,000 people in one place.
> They're scared sh*tless about 22 people in 1000 places.

They're not scared of either, so long as they all pay their taxes on time like good little obedient serf sheep.

Politicians do not give one flippin' shit about anything else. There is no issue, no constituency, *nothing*, that is remotely as important to them. They do not care about abortion, drugs, education, gun-control, health-care, climate-change, or anything else at all except remaining a member of a privileged class entitled to live on your dime in perpetuity.

The one and only thing they are scared sh*tless about is 22,000 people simultaneously announcing they're not paying in any more, and apply the concept of "molon labe" to *all* of their property -- not just firearms.

Charles in VA said...

@ mike18xx @ 1:59AM,

While you are almost certainly correct in the main about our politicians, how likely do you think it is that there will ever be that rising up?

Also, will it even be relevant once we switch over to a cashless society?

Take away cash, introduce negative interest rates and AUTOMATIC withdrawal of taxes from everyone's accounts, and they'll just starve you out. And by "you", I mean EVERYONE.

There's your 90% population reduction right there, not by bullets and bombs, but by pestilence, famine and poverty. The sheer inability to survive under adverse conditions would decimate this country...and in a very short amount of time.

This Kung Flu has the potential for being the catalyst for all of that. China is in process of going cashless as we speak. Global supply lines are already grinding to a halt. How long can we absorb that level of inactivity?

Anonymous said...

Its fair that .gov doesn't trust China's numbers. I don't trust any 'official' numbers without some sort of secondary and preferably tertiary verification - which often never come. Data points to track is all they are but numerically they mean squat. Sorta like inflation and unemployment numbers. Grocery shopping alone will tell you inflation numbers are a lie. I know, I know.. 'excluding volatile food and energy prices'. Because food an energy are not basic requirements and the long term trend of those items does not show an increase. Sure.

JWM said...

Good point, Anonymous. I remember the first time I saw three figures on a roast beef. It gave me that little gut drop. Yesterday I saw five bucks on a plastic box of spinach...


Bezzle said...

> While you are almost certainly correct in the main about our politicians,
> how likely do you think it is that there will ever be that rising up?

About as likely as winning Powerball.

> Also, will it even be relevant once we switch over to a cashless society?

The government is positively jizzing all over itself salivating at the prospect of a cashless society based upon an electronic system keeps a flawless, built-in track record of every transaction it's ever been used in (what kind of moronic dumbass do you have to be to buy drugs with Bitcoin? It's law-enforcement's best friend). If they could put chips in paper bills, they would have done so already -- how to solve this tyrant's dilemma??? Get rid of the bills! Yay! Now people *have* to use things with chips in them (computers) to buy preferred flavors of contraband, and then they can turn the screws whenever they want.

Let me know when you can buy a fucking danger-dog from a street vender with alt.coins without being exit-scammed, anally gouged on transaction fees, having your "wallet" vanish in a poof of ethereal smoke, and without eavesnooping LAPD pouring out of squads because they had nobody better to oppress at that moment.

> China is in process of going cashless as we speak.

Well no shit.

Bezzle said...

> > "This germ is killing *nobody* who is not indigenous Chinese"
> Close, but not quite right. There has been one Japanese fatality, an 80-year-old, so far.

I'll reslot my earlier question in the thread: "Has this bug yet managed to kill anyone outside of a curiously succinct Manchurian-genomed subset of the species?" (In other words, east-Asians.) So far, outside of that group, this disease is batting 0.00.

Anonymous said...

I live near here:

We know how well UNMC containment worked last time.