Friday, January 24, 2020

In Case You Missed It Earlier

Re: Coronavirus

1) Its family includes SARS. It's not "just the flu".
2) Treat it like FluBola and you'll do fine.
3) It's got about a 5% fatality rate (compared to 66-80% for Ebola virus).
4) It's about ten times easier to catch than Ebola.
5) Wash your hands, and if it gets nearby, disposable gloves and a N95 mask should suffice.
6) If it becomes a transplanted epidemic, stay home if you can, and minimize contact if you can't.
7) Wash your hands before you eat or drink, and don't touch your face.
8) Wash your hands.

That concludes your coronavirus briefing. were shocked to hear the media hyping this like it's the end of the world, while gaslighting the legitimate threat of Ebola, which makes the Black Death look about as deadly as granny's casserole leftovers?
You mean to tell me there's fakenews at ABCNNBCBS??
Would I lick a petrie dish with coronavirus?
Hell, no.
If someone was in the room with it, I'd leave, and wash my hands.
That's about it.
The problem's gonna come when we fail to quarantine potential carriers, and there are 50,000 cases here.
Then, it's liable to become a pandemic.
It's annoying, it might kill some people (for whom it'll really suck), but it's not as bad as drug-resistant TB, or flesh-eating bacteria.
But the hype is more about selling papers than the actual risk.
Rules to remember:
1) China lies abut everything to everyone, including themselves.
(If this turns out to be something far worse than just corona virus, it'll be because the Chinese lied to everyone. Like they do.)
2) The CDC needs help finding their own @$$ with both hands and a map.
3) "We're from the government and we're here to help." are still the most frightening words on the planet.
4) You take care of you.
5) Canned food lasts quite a while, and you should have that, water, other supplies, and an emergency cash stash for a minimum of between 3-6 months of living and expenses. Period.


June J said...

Selling papers? What's a paper? :-)

I believe I understand that what you're saying is...wash your hands, often.

George True said...

I have been looking at the particulars of the unfortunate people who have died from it thus far. I am seeing a lot of Type I and Type II diabetes. Also elderly. And obese. Also other health challenges, such as COPD. So far I am not seeing a general alarm for the population at large.

Anonymous said...

I'm reposting for your information. Hope it helps you folks.

Hand washing helps. Other steps to help you AND your Family if this gets serious.

Friends please remember that all these herbals are mostly for reinforcing the most powerful influenza defense you have. Your own immune system. Mankind has been battling disease long before we “discovered” supporting herbs and foods.

Indeed most if not all of those discoveries were discovered that we “Felt Better” after eating….

To HELP your Immune System. Get plenty of rest, drink plenty of water (Your morning urine will be yellow, the other 3 visits should be straw yellow or clear) eat healthy foods AND be aware of how you feel after you eat.

Chicken soup has been proven to help. Easy nutrition, extra fluids. MY GO TO when I have the “I WANNA DIE FLU” is Hot Kimchee Soup. It’s a cross between “Fire Cider” (Which WORKS pretty well for me) and Chicken Soup. Fermented foods SUPPORT the Gut which is most of your Immune System.

Hot Kimchee Soup Super Jewish Penicillin. Lots of Garlic, hot peppers, fermented goodies, easy nutrition.

So to reduce exposure to pathogens. Wear a mask if a lot of folks are getting sick. Wash your hands BEFORE touching your mucus membranes like your mouth, nose eyes. Reduce your time of exposure to sick people I. E. think are you shopping because your bored (I am often guilty here) or because you NEED to get IN (With a LIST AND a Plan to get’er DONE and gone..) for 10 days of food and critical needs.

Isolation protocol. To reduce bringing pathogens INTO your home. OUTSIDE your home set up IN THE SUNSHINE a place to spread out your groceries. Allow them to “Air Out” and get some sunshine (UV) decontamination. EVERY LITTLE BIT HELPS here folks.

Set up a strip and wash zone. Assume your covered in nastiness and figure out how to get home and CLEAN UP before you hug your kids, sit on that sofa (making it contaminated) and in general not track it all over your house. Maybe a Soap and Water “Whores Bath” of your #1 your Hands #2 Face #3 Hair (a wonderful place for Flu Bugs to await your families kisses) and the AGAIN your hands.

Plastic bags to transport laundry into the ready washing machine WEAR a Mask when loading machine and WASH your Hands again.

Soap and Water are your friends.

IF despite all this effort you get sick, when you first notice it BLAST it with Isolation (as not to spread it to the rest of your family) plenty of bed rest, hydration good nutrition and whatever herbals you feel the need to add.

I always KNOW I’m coming down with something. DO NOT WAIT until your “Really Sick” to start self medicating. Stomp it NOW and thus your immune system has the best chance to destroy this problem before it’s overwhelmed.

You could look it up but the time from “Your feeling Poorly” to your really SICK from a nasty influenza is around 3 days. That second day or so YOUR Spewing Flu bugs all around. THUS the NEED to Isolate yourself ASAP. Any MASK is better than NO Mask. Always MASK the SICK ONES as they are SPEWING with every cough the BUG.

I’ve been working in the hospital system for decades. I’ve seen and survived many a nasty flu seasons as everybody SICK shows up to see us. The Above has been my personal FLU season protocol and has always done me well.

A.B. Prosper said...

Not many people out there going the common sense route. Thanks much.

Monty James said...

Thanks for the word. In case anyone is interested:

Wuhan Coronavirus Global Cases

Detective Darkness said...

What's the over/ under on how long we have as a civilization until the "Licking a petri dish" challenge takes off as a millenial social media movement?

Retired cop said...


Thanks for the information. The news folks always want to make things sound as bad as possible. I appreciate your voice of reason.

Retired cop

Badger said...

He has to repeat it everytime.
But there are an OPEC-tanker full of good things that happen, probably unnoticed (good) if folks would just Wash.Their.Damn.Hands more.

TGreen said...

Likely of more consequence:
"What happens when China stops making widgets even just for a while?"

But, yeah, wash yer hands.

Linda Fox said...

My daughter called me this afternoon. My grandson came home sick. I told her to take him straight to the doctor.

He has Influenza A. Got the tamiflu, instructions, and it's a load off my mind.

Anonymous said...

I'm not buying into the hype BUT consider that China went from Patient Zero to 17 quarantined cities in SIX WEEKS. I realize the Chinese are probably lying about the numbers and the start date but if they are to be believed then 1000 confirmed cases and 47 dead suggests it's a nasty strain and probably more contagious than the Spanish Flu. How many have fully recovered? I've only read that ONE patient so far has fully recovered and we don't know if there is any long term complications for the lungs. I've also read that 25% of the patients are on ventilators...who knows if it's actually true.

Too early to panic but the quarantine response in such a short amount of time is not to be ignored. We also practice better hygiene in this country but in terms of percentages it won't save us if it takes hold here....and it won't take 50,000 to declare pandemic.

Unknown said...

Sadly, I think you may be underestimating the capacity of the Murkin sheeple to panic. Also, if this gets into certain populations, in the cities, who don't know what hand washing is, it could be SHTF time. Not just SHTF for those neighborhoods, but when the herd panics, SHTF for everyone in their way.

I could go on, but let's just say at this point, I'm glad I live out in the middle of no freakin' where.

Monty James said...

I'm looking at the Johns Hopkins global cases map and wondering if there has been any travel from China to Africa in the past few weeks before the quarantine was imposed.

Wuhan Coronavirus Global Cases

RandyGC said...

Not to feed the paranoids or conspiracy fanbois (much overlap), but the Washington Times is reporting that the PRC has two biowar, excuse me, Virology labs near Wuhan.

(H/T to Instapundit).

Might be as coincidental as an outbreak of flu near Atlanta or in Northern Maryland, might be connected. No way to tell using open source and since the ChiComs lie (even to themselves) as a matter of policy we may never know.

Will be interested to see if this reported through any other sources.

Anonymous said...

Doesn't the Chinese gubmint lock down 46 million people on the eve of their Lunar New Year every time a few people get the sniffles in a little town with a BL-4 facility?

Happened with SARS, right?

Hope the Norks are just over-reacting, eh?

MN Steel

Anonymous said...


Could someone needing a few yuan possibly have smuggled some lab test animal(s) out and sold them at the live animal and Seafood Market where the epidemic started?


Is this mass quarantine action by China because they under reacted to the SARS epidemic a few years ago?

nick flandrey said...

Transcript of today's CDC Coronavirus, (WuFlu)can be found here--

TL:DR - the system is working as designed, we've got this, but it's evolving and we don't know if we've got this so it could change quickly, but so far we're doing a great job.

"To date, we have 63 of what we are calling patients under investigation or PUIs from 22 states. So far, only two have been confirmed positive and 11 tested negative. We anticipate by next week we’ll begin regular reporting of case information on our website. There are likely to be many more PUIs identified in the coming days. We have faced similar public health challenges before. Those outbreaks were complex and required a comprehensive public health response. This is what we are preparing for. We have an aggressive response with the goal of identifying potential cases early. We want to make sure these patients get the best and most appropriate care. This is a rapidly changing situation both abroad and domestically, and we are still learning. Let’s remember this virus is identified within the past month and there is much we don’t know yet. We are expecting more cases in the U.S., and we are likely going to see some cases among close contacts of travelers and human to human transmission. Our goal is always to protect the health of Americans. We at CDC have our best people working on this problem. We have support across the entirety of the Federal Government. We have one of the strongest public health systems in the world. Again, while there are many unknowns, CDC believes that the immediate risk to the American public continues to be low at this time, but that the situation continues to evolve rapidly. "

--so don't worry, like ebola, we've got Top Men (tm) working on it.


Anonymous said...

This Doctor seems to think this Corona virus is much more contagious with an R0 of 3.8.

Others report rumors of "hundreds dead" in different Chinese cities. Rumors, early incomplete data, but why are the Chinese reacting so aggressively? The Daily Mail and Washington Times are wondering if there is a link to a bio-laboratory in Wuhan.

Badger said...

I've seen R0 of 1.7 to 2.5 in other discussions; WHO on the low end, Imperial College of London on the high end. Flip your own coin.
Thanks Aesop for goodbadfugly in things like this.

carolinaTURTLE said...

Could someone offer garlic "dosage" recommendations? Better eaten raw or cooked? Lucky for me, the *smell of garlic* doesn't bother me... T.I.A!

Jack said...

Always been fanatical about hand washing. It is incredibly hard breaking the habit of touching your face. Started working at a hospital a few months ago while attending tech. People are stupid/gross, and free gov healthcare is a terrible idea. First case I see in the SE I'm quitting. First case I see in my state I'm bugging in.

Karl said...

Thanks for the info.

Some conclusions I've formed in the past week:

1) The People's Safety Bio-Lab #4 is a bio-weapons lab, and it is unsafe.
2) The officials in charge of Chinese citizen safety report to a government with "Communist Party" in their title.
3) This confirms Chinese government workers are as worthless as the ones we have here.

DTG said...

An interesting validation of Aesop's post:

The title being: Your Chance Of Developing Symptoms Or Dying From The Menacing Coronavirus That Now Threatens Global Human Populations Is 0.0000017482% Symptoms/ 0.0000001137% Death

Man, 'the sky is falling' crowd really needs to take a breath!! LOL

Me? I do vitamin D3, Vitamin C, and some other supplements designed to keep my immune system operating as it should be.

Anonymous said...

This isolation box in a Chinese airport seems rather extreme for just the "flu."

When the death total was at 17 they claimed that half of them were old folks but it was also claimed the other half were health care workers. Seems like masks and gloves aren't working so full hazmat will be the next fashion craze?

Anonymous White Male said...

"But...but....but....This is America! Quarantine is a violation of my human rights!"

I remember when Americans had no problem quarantining individuals with dangerous communicable diseases. Now, we can't even quarantine drag queens from our children. I'm just waiting for the ACLU to file the first lawsuit over someone that has been quarantined with the corona virus.

nick flandrey said...

Consider that the Chinese NEVER admit to the full extent of a problem, preferring to save face any way they can.

Run the current reaction thru that filter, and you get something terrifying. They look like they're panicking, not like they are finally joining the worldwide community and dealing openly with a minor problem.

If the numbers and news can be trusted, then any math based on them is OK, and Aesop is undoubtedly correct. But if the numbers and assumptions he's using are an order of magnitude off, then we've got trouble right here in River City.

The Habitat for Humanity ReStore I visit has construction materials for sale, and has been trying to get rid of a truckload of N95 masks for months. I went and bought some yesterday at deep discounts. The cashier told me one of their corporate customers had called in an order for 175 boxes or 3500 masks earlier in the day. Every customer in the store had a couple of boxes.

What's one of the top rules in prepping? When it's time to act, act decisively. What will it hurt to have a pile of supplies??? First movers get it all, the latecomers get nothing...


Anonymous said...

Do we really know the real numbers? Is the incubation period 7 days or up to 14? Is the RO at 2 or higher? Mutation rates? People here go to the doctor with a case of sniffles so one corona patient in a crowded waiting room can overwhelm the system rather quickly. Many deaths from the Spanish Flu were the result of a cytokine storm with the help of the new wonder drug at the time...aspirin.

milton f said...

Thanks for sharing your expertise. Will definitely be taking your advice. And passing it along.


Anonymous said...

From doctors in Hong Kong:
A family of 7 were admitted to the hospital with 6 members diagnosed with the virus. The 10-year-old boy without the virus showed no outward symptoms but CAT scan revealed ground-glass pneumonic changes in his lungs. The other child, a 7-year-old girl with the virus reportedly wore a mask for most of the time they were in Wuhan.

Dubbed as "cryptic cases of walking pneumonia." Flubola indeed.

Aesop said...

@A 10:26

Bear well in mind that "a mask" is not the same thing as "an N95 mask designed for protection from infectious particles", so probably just a square of cotton material with ear loops.

And people in Chinese cities live like mice in a Habitrail, with average healthcare best described as primitive..

That's how you get a pandemic.

Anonymous said...

Think of this loose among the street people of San Francisco.

Unknown said...

This from vox days blog:

borsabilJanuary 25, 2020 11:04 AM

I'm currently in Fujian province, far away from the epicenter, but I can tell you that people here are in full blown panic mode. The CCP has closed off an entire province of 50 million people, you don't do that for what's being reported as a mild flu effecting a few hundred people with a 1% mortality rate. Symptoms include severe gastro followed by a respiratory illness and in worse cases pneumonia, but videos are being shared on Chinese social media of victims vomiting and shitting out blood. I've also seen video of a hospital stacked with dead bodies lining the corridors along with live patients, it's a complete FUBAR. You're damned right other nations need to close down travel from CHina. I want to get the fuck out of Dodge but I would expect to be quarantined when I get home.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Wendy (KekistanTrans) said...

One image from Wuhan shows the sheer scale of trying to treat a city on lockdown, as Wuhan coronavirus spreads

Chinese hospital staff in Wuhan face fears amid frontline battle against coronavirus outbreak

China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

Wuhan China Coronavirus is spreading EVERYWHERE! People are collapsing and dying! SPREAD THE TRUTH!

Linda Fox said...

Reading this, I got a chill down my spine. I'm stopping off at home depot (they have the right type of masks) before I head home tonight. The masks are unavailable in most of the area for 100 miles.

Kevin said...

Where would you recommend to buy N95 filters from? Are are any brand, makers or manufacturers better than one another?

And, how many per person?

Wendy (KekistanTrans) said...

N95 filter masks -
Any pharmacy or bigger store in the health & beauty section.
Any hardware store or Home Depot / Lowes / Menards type store.
At this point probably a dozen for each person, at least, I would guess. Good items to have on hand and in addition to flu season use you can always use them if you are working in dusty environments.

Aesop said...

Anon 1:48s comments were removed because they demonstrate the power of a little knowledge being a dangerous thing.

The guidelines for healthcare providers are stricter than what I put out because we have to be close-up to patients to work.

You don't.

N100 masks are difficult to come by and more expensive, in general, but if you anticipate standing eyeball to eyeball with a viral patient, by all means, wear them, and lab goggles.

But for normal day-to-day out and about, even in a pandemic of coronavirus, an N95 mask and no eye protection will more than suffice.

The CDC guidelines for infectious isolation in healthcare setting are published online.

Vomiting and diarrhea can be caused by coronaviridae.
That's not "shitting blood".
If they are doing that, it's not corona virus.

Turn down your panic, and use your head for something besides a hatrack.

Anonymous said...

The daily mail is saying only 5% of the people infected with this new Coronavirus are sick enough to go to a hospital. 95% (19/20) do not go to a hospital, and therefore don't get counted

This is probably good news. Most people are going to survive. The bad news is those other 19 people will also be spreading the virus to everyone else too. If the doctor that says this has a R0 of 3.8 is correct, that means with modern airline travel, almost everyone in the civilized world will get exposed to this Coronavirus. Assume this means about 5 billion worldwide and all 350 million in the US. In the US, 5% of 350 million is still 17.5 million patients needing a hospital. That will overwhelm our medical system. If 5% of those needing a hospital die, like Aesop reports, that is still about 875,000 corpses. Possibly all in a few months.

The carnage in orderly suburbia and out state will be bad. In the tightly congested cities, with druggies, homeless, criminals, and general disfunctional life? I feel for Aesop and anyone in the medical profession.

Best thing to do is not get sick. Minimize your exposure. Wash your hands religiously. Store up food and do not go out unless necessary. Wear a mask and gloves. Remove your outer clothes and hang them outside after being in public. Rest, excercise, take your vitamins. Hope and pray that you and yours have a mild reaction to the virus, and do not need a hospital or doctor.

How rugged is this virus? Does it last after exposure to air, room temperatures, etc.?

The Gray Man said...

I have literally only one question, Aesop, from one ER nurse to another... The CDC has said “22 states on alert”, or whatever. But none of the news sites will list the states. Do you or anyone else just have the list of “alerted states”? They always give the number of states but never the actual list. I’d like to know what states they’re focused on. Thanks. I’ll put the list on American Partisan.

The Gray Man said...

Just get the 3M brand at a drug store.

nick flandrey said...

Um, wrt an upthread comment, and without KNOWING, but assuming the patient shown has WuFlu (tm), this photo sure looks like there is bloody stool in the bedpan...


MTNBOY said...

In a podcast today, Virologist Dr. Steven Hatfield said that virus particles 1 to 5 microns can stay in the air for several minutes and be absorbed by your eyes.

The podcast is very good. I learned a lot. My wife an RN for 40 years (Mostly in the OR) found it very informative.

nick flandrey said...

One of the infected doctors said he thinks he got it because he wasn't wearing eye pro.

FWIW- Official from the CDC

Interim Guidance for Preventing 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from Spreading to Others in Homes and Communities

And one step up the tree--

Information for Healthcare Professionals

This page includes interim guidance for healthcare professionals on human infections with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).


nick flandrey said...

WRT the upthread question about WHICH cities have potential sick people, there is only this from the CDC call I've linked elsewhere...

"To date, we have 63 of what we are calling patients under investigation or PUIs from 22 states. So far, only two have been confirmed positive and 11 tested negative. We anticipate by next week we’ll begin regular reporting of case information on our website. "


" I have a question; can you tell us how many people have been screened and is it possible to get a list of the 22 states and how many people — how many close contacts are being monitored?

Dr. Marty Cetron: Yes, we have screened over 2,000 folks to date as of yesterday, and that’s about 200 flights. We have not found any cases; one person was sent for additional medical evaluation. That’s the current status of screening at the five ports for the active entry screening.

Dr. Messonnier: In terms of the number of states, I don’t have that information today. It is one of those things we are hoping to be able to post on the web next week.

OK, I am sorry, I am — Nina, there are 22 states. The specific information about which state is again something we hope to post by next week. I am sorry, I missed the third question? Oh, the contact list.

I think that would be premature for us to give you absolute numbers, but I ask my colleagues in Chicago, Illinois, if you want to give a sense of how many people you are tracking.

Dr. Allison Arwady: This is Allison Arwady in Chicago. We are currently working to determine exactly what our list is going to be for monitoring, this patient had limited close contacts and the ones that have been identified are currently well will certainly be working with the CDC team on the ground to make sure there is a full list of those folks as well as healthcare workers caring for the patients. We are not ready to share details at this time. We are well on our way to having all of that established."


The Gray Man said...

Thanks. I’m going to keep trying to see if I can somehow get the list. I don’t understand why they’re going to give us a number of states and not the actual damn states.

MTNBOY said...

Dr. Hatfield says that a person can be infected and contagious for several days and not have any symptoms. The infrared screening for fever will not pick up these people so a lot could get through.

Anonymous said...

Anon 6:11 did you have a moment of "why did I post THAT" after you hit post?

Or are you so ignorant that diseases never stay in one place. Airplanes, busses, cars and such spread it around to YOUR PLACE.

Hopefully next year we can laugh about all the "Fuss" we made with coronavirus.

Otherwise a lot of people will suffer and die NOT just from the disease but the knock on problems LIKE Truckers afraid to drive and thus YOUR Grocery Store (Full of fruits and vegetables FROM Commiefornia) WILL BE EMPTY. Medicines also NEED those truckers as well as WEEKLY Water Purification chemicals and such.

Got plenty of food, safe water and medicine Ignorant "Hero"?

Anonymous said...

John Ringo, the Science Fiction Author of many dystopian novels made a comment at Instapundit that is heartening.

The SARS Coronavirus Epidemic 17 years ago killed 800 people. When it got to the US, it killed no one. For some reason it acted like a much milder disease in the US. Also the MERS Coronavirus epidemic with its 30% fatality rate never seemed to get a foothold in the US.

I don't know what will happen here. I sometimes think it could be bad, like 1918 Spanish Flu, or not much more than the average annual flu. In the meantime, wash your hands, minimize contact, and pray for the afflicted.

Anonymous said...

I know as of Friday you could add Minnesota to your list, 2 suspected cases, 5-7 day lead-time on CDC confirmation.

MN Steel

nick flandrey said...


Aesop said...

I have no wild idea which states are supposedly "on alert".

The incubation time for coronavirus is 2-14 days.
By definition, that means the time during which no symptoms appear.

If they're screening for fever at airports, most infected persons will get through such kabuki-theater "screening", because they'll be getting checked on Day 1 or 2, and few if any will have symptoms, like fever.

Now, go back to the OP, and see if you can figure out why I put #2 and #3 in the Rules To Remember.

Aesop said...

BTW, before anyone else shits their pants over corona virus, bear well in mind that it's killed maybe 40-50 people.

Last year, in just the U.S. , the flu killed >8000 people.

Headless Chickens, kindly get a grip on yourselves.

nick flandrey said...

"it's killed maybe 40-50 people."

--just playing devil's advocate, but that is just the official number from people we know lie routinely. There are reports that anywhere outside of Wuhan the deaths are reported as 'respiratory illness' or similar. Aesop, you were one of the loudest voices regarding the african undercounting of Ebola, why take the chinese at their word? And we know the lag time between death and the counting is measured in weeks, from their own reported policies.

--my concern is that their actions speak a LOT louder than words. Do you put 50 million people under travel restrictions for ~2000 sick people and only 50 dead? Do you scramble to build two new treatment centers? Do you cancel some of the biggest festivals of the year "out of an abundance of caution" and shut down tourism with the subsequent devastating economic impact? Do you do ANY of that if it's really 'just like a mild flu'?

--the vids and pix on twitter don't show 2000 people out of 11 million sick. Would your hospital look like that if it was just a surge of flu symptoms? Would the med staff stay in the PPEs (massively uncomfortable PPEs) if they didn't think it was necessary?

--the numbers don't match the response, and THAT'S what has me concerned.


Wendy (KekistanTrans) said...

Regarding the points Nick brought up ("their actions speak a LOT louder than words") and "the numbers don't match the response, and THAT'S what has me concerned."

I would say the response doesn't seem to match the numbers, but same difference.

It seems to me that someone important knows something about what got loose and that is driving the apparently out of proportion reaction to this.

That and stories like this one about Chinese agents tied to China’s Biological Warfare Program stealing Coronavirus from Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory (NML) in Winnipeg ("Sources say Xiangguo Qiu and her husband Keding Cheng were escorted from the National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg on July 5, 2019") is the stuff that indicates this may be more than an ordinary flu and is what I am concerned about.

Did China Steal Coronavirus From Canada And Weaponize It?

RTWT (Read The Whole Thing) as CA at WRSA often puts it. :-)

In any event, those working in hospitals in the U.S. will know soon enough the depth and gravity of this situation if it's just another flu bug on top of the normal flu bugs or something way worse...

nick flandrey said...

Assume for a moment that the nurse who made the video actually knows something, and 90K infected is a real number. THAT would be a number to inspire the sort of response we're seeing....

And if true, if even 1% die, that's a LOT of deaths from the first wave, and even if each person only infects one other, that's a wave of deaths every (probably) two weeks...

In other related news, despite reporting that masks are sold out, amazon, ebay, and several industrial suppliers are still showing availability, and prices have not been increased in most places.


Unknown said...

So I know nothing about disease transmission, but the two of the stats you provided caught my eye. 5% mortality rate, much lower than Ebola, BUT 10 times easier to transmit. Does that make it something we should watch? Will the virus have a more significant impact because of the multiplier?

lineman said...

nick flandrey said...

“Health department confirms first case of coronavirus in Arizona”

“PHOENIX — The Arizona Department of Health Services on Sunday confirmed the first case of coronavirus in the state.

The patient is a Maricopa County resident and a member of the Arizona State University community who recently returned from traveling in Wuhan, China, the department said in a press release.

ADHS added that the person, who does not live in university housing, is not severely ill and is currently in isolation to keep the illness from spreading.”

nick flandrey said...

CDC updated their summary page, but mainly just the number of confirmed US infected changed.


Adino said...

There is a lot of speculation around the facts we know, and that which we don't.

If this a 'bat stew' gone wrong from the market, the laissez fair stance probably pans out when considering infection and mortality rates. Carry on.

But it is worth giving some considering to the possibility there is some truth to the speculation this corona virus was stolen by chicoms from Canada's Level 4 bio nightmare facility, for the express desire of fulfilling input genes at the Wuhan weapons facility 20 miles south of the market the outbreak came from the stolen virus allegedly went to.

We should also perhaps consider the chicom .mil desire for genetically specific bio weapons.

It might be prudent to contemplate they have engineered desired subsequent follow on mutations to exhibit in the infected herd populous in subsequent generations of the virus.

Consideration should also be given to the knee jerk reactions of guv'ments conclusion there is no imminent danger in light of the oligarch's view of overpopulation.

This is not a light your hair on fire and run in circles situation at this stage.

But it might not be a bad idea to fish that lighter out of the junk drawer and make a nice spot in the yard for a tantrum. Just in case transmission and mortality rates go hyperbolic.

Aesop said...

I guess making this:

1) China lies abut everything to everyone, including themselves.

(If this turns out to be something far worse than just corona virus, it'll be because the Chinese lied to everyone. Like they do.)

Rule Number One on Rules To Remember wasn't big enough for anyone.

The videos show people in full-blown "ZOMG!!! PANIC!"
They don't show thousands of people infected, they show dozens of people losing their collective shit. That's a waiting room soccer mob, not a herd of infectees.

Medical Triage Rule 1, Since Ever:
Anyone well enough to be losing their shit isn't seriously ill.

nick flandrey said...

Nice wrap up and summary of current status...


Haxo Angmark said...

Corona-chan wants you, Aesop.

she is not happy with the way you slandered Ebola-chan.

Anonymous said...

Bat soup ril gud misser dubwee.

nick flandrey said...

Um, the chart here looks pretty bad...

Cases just went vertical.


Anonymous said...

Metallicman has some pretty chilling opinions on the matter. He lives in China. Worth a read. See SHTF articles. Ohio Guy.

Aesop said...

Still looks to me like IDGAF.

Maybe if some people would stop trying to use bats as a food group...

A Texan said...


Thanks for your usual common sense post on the disease of the day/week/month/whatever. Washing one's hands and the rest of the advice should be practiced pretty much every day ANYWAY, regardless of whether some rather virulent and communicable pathogen is circulating amongst the general population.

Question: What are your thoughts about the use of Elderberry extract as an additional (not substitute) preventative and, if one gets the Coronavirus, as an additional (not substitute) treatment to aid one's immune system?

Anonymous said...

Not Aesop but when the Spanish Flu was killing healthy military aged men in 1918 it was not the flu that killed them. A cytokine storm where the persons own immune system overreacted killed them.

Some studies have shown that Elderberry is not an preventative like hand washing, masks, decon when you get home and social distancing-isolation but something that "revved" up the immune system. Thus might not be the best as the flu progresses inside your system.

It was a small study and your results may differ but right now as health Care provider I use Elderberry-Zinc gummies, Emergency-C along with fermented foods like kimchee to boost my immune system as I cannot avoid the sick working at a hospital.

In short the best way to get past this troublesome FLU is Hand Washing BEFORE you Touch your Face. That's the #1 way to pass the bug into your system. Boost your immune system with plenty of sleep, good hydration (1st daily pee yellow, the rest straw yellow or clear)good food (thus the fermented foods like kimchee, sauerkraut, yogurt, chicken soup etc.)to support your GUT (AKA your Immune System) and again wash up like you've handled something nasty BEFORE you touch your Face OR anybody you CARE For.

Don't bring it home Guys! Get home from Work or Shopping, strip your clothes into the washing machine, take a Shower BEFORE you plop your FLU contaminated clothing into your couch OR Kiss your sweet lady.

Personally I am ONLY going out to work and needed shopping. I've canceled my Dinners out and shows until this situation is resolved.

My families HEALTH is MORE Important that being "Forced" to eat my own cooking and watching TV.

A Texan said...

Interesting article:

Basically, it says that the complete isolation of every carrier and everyone they had close contact with is the only way to end the contagion. That is, IMHO, both a true statement and a goal that is impossible to attain. So, with known cases (which is to say, people past the 2-week mark of contact, when they are actually displaying symptoms) in many countries and no apparent attempts to limit travel out of China until just a few days or a week ago, we're pretty much fucked. This is particularly true IF (big word there) the virus mutates into a more lethal form. You could be easily looking at something as bad (in terms of raw numbers) as the Spanish Flu epidemic of the post-WW1 era or, worse yet, something as lethal on a percentage basis (which would kill 4 times as many people, perhaps near to half a billion people.

Unless everyone washes their hands and stops touching their faces and wear's effective masks...and the odds of that are pretty near zilch.

Someone please show me that the linked article is wrong.

Anonymous said...

A Texan "...the complete isolation of every carrier and everyone they had close contact with is the only way to end the contagion."

I have some questions about this idea. When someone is confirmed, lets say the guy in Germany how do they track ALL his contacts. How close is close in terms of infections? Family and coworkers seems easy. However, what about public transportation, walking down the street, did he stop at any shops on the way home? Now add that one can be viral shedding (this is what contagious means, yes?) for one to two weeks before becoming symptomatic - how can every contact really be accounted for? Or is a high percentage good enough? Finally, any data on how long this virus can survive outside a host? Is there some general rule of thumb for this or is each virus unique?

Anonymous said...

Guys the Pandora Box has been OPENED. Fussing about closing the Lid after all the demons escaped is wasted effort.

You cannot track each vector of this disease. You can only DO YOUR PART to Protect your Family and Yourself until Corona Virus burns it's self out by mutating into something more harmless.

Maybe someday a "Vaccine" will show up to "Save" us but YOU and I have to DO Our Part in slowing this disaster with common sense WASH YOUR HANDS before Touching your Face efforts. The Corona Virus like other flu's cannot survive with out a host. 3+ hours outside a body like on letters or boxes IT DIES OFF. Self Isolate you and your family as much as possible. Skip the Dinners out, read your own Bible instead of church. Give time for this to BURN it's self out.

Get right with your GOD for in the final story ALL of Us will Die, so it's HOW we LIVE that is important.

Anonymous said...

Well Aesop, you taught me a lot a couple of years ago, and what signs to look for, and so I've topped off my preps this week. I hope all will be well with you and your loved ones through this. All the best!