Thursday, November 10, 2022

Sucker Bet



Survivormann99 said...

Is comparing turnout in an off-year election fair? Isn't that comparing apples to oranges? Presidential elections always get the larger turnout.

John said...

Still a year and change out. Lots can (and will) go on . . .

Dave said...

Until Trump runs in a mid-term election, this is all nonsense.

Aesop said...


That's exactly the point. The original tweet is off Tam's site, and totally unironically compares DeSantis' weaker showing in a mid-term election to Trump in any year, because she was looking at [percentage] "points" as if that tells the tale, rather than votes.
Even Trump's Florida total from 2016, with a lower total statewide turnout, still beats DeSantis in the best year there he's ever had.
It's like pitting a great college pitcher against the 2022 Dodgers batting lineup.
Making the comparison at all was a feat of breathtaking electoral and mathematical ignorance, but evidently Never-Trump hyperbole knows no bounds. It's a free country and all, so anyone can like or hate any politician out there, but one does not get their own version of mathematics.

At your convenience, name all the politicians who, two years out of office, were or are packing hundreds of thousands of people into arenas. At anytime since George Washington's inauguration.
The idea that DeSantis is in anything like the same league is the nonsense.
Imagining that he's more popular in any state than Trump is, even Florida, isn't an idea he should test. The likely drubbing he'd get would cripple him going forward as well, which would be unfortunate a few years later. He's a big fish in a small pond, and he'd be going against a guy who's run two national campaigns, and dominated all opponents, including literally everybody who thinks they're somebody in the Republican Party. The last time Trump ran in an opposed primary in Florida, he trounced both Senator Rubio and Gov. Jeb Bush, and pulled more votes in that primary than the next two finishers combined.

Rest assured no one needs to tell DeSantis that running against Trump wouldn't be like running against Crist, and the suggestion he would have any chance at all is simply ludicrous.

Aesop said...


What makes you think that?
Trump could announce next week, and it's on like Donkey Kong now.
The only doubtful outlook is the likelihood of anything like a free, fair, and honest national election ever again in our lifetime. Depending on fraud is obviously addictive to the power-mad.

That factor alone should probably move your CW 2.0 clock a minute closer, right there.

FredLewers said...

America's toast at this point. The SHTF already it just hasn't finished splattering...

Linda Fox said...

Have you noticed that the Mainstream Media is actually pumping DeSantis up? Makes me wonder what they have on him.
I would rather than he stay in FL and continue shoring it up. But, I also wonder whether the Entitled Elite have decided to make FL an alternative escape site, a haven to protect them when it all goes to Sh--.
Anyone that looks as Bulletproof and Squeaky Clean as Ron, immediately raises my BS Detector. They are promoting him as an alternative to Trump; that, alone, causes me to raise an eyebrow or two. Since when did the Entitled Elite give a Dam- about our well-being?

John Wilder said...

Yup. For (whatever) reason, I thought they'd be content to let these midterms go. Perhaps so that the R's could share in the economic blame. Nope.

Now that they are willing to openly steal elections, why not simply arrest Trump?

Anonymous said...

I didn’t realize descant is was running against Biden or trump in the lectionary “results” you refer to. Perhaps if he was an option v. Trump or Biden, results would be different? Math isn’t math when you try and subtract numbers from different problems.

Aesop said...

@Anon 5:43,

So your thesis is that people who voted for Biden would vote for DeSantis?
Or that Trump, who garnered more votes than DeSantis did in either of two general elections, and who outstripped Rubio and Crus combined in 2016, would lose votes to DeSantis, who commands far greater respect among the same electorate than Trump does?

Explain how that works.

I submit that DeSantis running against Trump in 2024 would be lucky to even come in second in the Florida primary.

Pay attention to the fact that all of DeSantis' current hype-men are the Democommunists, and the very RINOs who hated Trump since he entered politics. They aren't telling you who they want to be president, they're telling you who they want to see in the general election.

Beware of Greeks bearing gifts.