And so is Kung Flu.
This isn't a ramble. I have a number of lines of thought I've been stewing over at work all weekend, and I'll be going down each one until I'm done.
4000 is the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the U.S. now.
(That we know about. Reality could be 100,000 or more.)
If that original number doubles seventeen more times, the product is a number larger than the populations of the U.S. (330M), Mexico(137M), and Canada(37M), combined. IOW, it's virtually everywhere in North America at that point. (No, I'm not particularly concerned about the banana republics between Mexico and South America in this regard. They can lump it.)
What I've read is that the outbreak is doubling every 4-6 days. So somewhere between 68 and 102 days from today, the shit sandwich on this continent reaches full maturity.
If the spread of the disease is moving at that rate.
If the current voluntary measures don't halt that growth, or even slow that pace.
If it doesn't run out of people stupid enough to keep doing things to spread it.
With the above caveats:
May 22nd, to June 26th, give or take.
It crests 100M cases a week to two earlier.
Long before then, we'll have a great view of how lethal it is, and how many cases are serious. So by somewhere between mid-May and Mid-June, we'll either have metric f**ktons of people requiring hospitalization, and dead, or not. How much better or worse it is then will be a foolproof look at whether this is a nothingburger, or Spanish Flu. Oh, and if there are really 100,000 cases now, we get there a full month earlier.
Now maybe you can figure out why POTUS said this will last through July or August, at minimum.
And remember, the 85% (or more, or less) of all infected people who have symptoms ranging from none, to moderate flu, aren't the problem. They never were. They'll be just fine.
It's the hordes dying in droves, and crashing the entire U.S. medical system that could put a kink in this country that'll last for decades. And crashing the stock market. And everyone going broke. And crashing the economy even after this passes. And so on. And so on. And so on.
That's 5 1/2 months from now.
How much food do you have?
How much cash on hand do you have?
How much of each of those does Gilligan's family have, and how far are they from you?
So, how much ammo do you have??
That little thought exercise should concentrate your minds wonderfully.
Now, a reminder about some other numbers.
900,000 staffed hospital beds.
93,000 staffed ICU beds.
1,000,000 medical doctors.
2,800,000 registered nurses.
106,000 respiratory therapists.
That is the army you're gong to war with, in this pandemic.
And when I say staffed beds, I don't just mean doctors, nurses, and RTs. I also mean D.Os, PAs, EMTs, CNAs, pharmacists, radiology techs, facilities engineers, clean-up crew, supply workers, registration clerks, administration people, IT geeks, and hundreds of other clerks and jerks, without whose constant efforts and hard work, plus medical supplies in small mountains every single day, Dr. Hero and Nurse Awesome are just a couple of people in funny pajamas, and with about as much lifesaving ability on their own as there is actual magical ability in Rupert Grint and Matthew Lewis.
If it was just beds we needed, we could take all the surplus army cots from the 2M guys RIFFed from Uncle Sam in the 1990s, unfold them, and Presto!, have another 2M spots to dump patients. It doesn't work like that.
I bring this up because if "only" 10% of Kung Flu victims require a hospital bed, because they're really that sick, then long about the time we hit 16,000,000 victims, in (44 to 66 days, so let's average it to) 55 days, we have more patients than we have beds for them. At that point, we're Italy. Say about May the 12th or so. (We may also have up to 480,000 dead, which if it happens would have crushed every ICU in the country 5 times over long before that point.)
We've covered this before, but it bears keeping in mind. Keep your thumb in this spot, as we move along.
This weekend, all considered, from purely a Kung Flu cases standpoint, was just ducky.
We had maybe half a dozen to ten "rule-outs" (meaning "maybe it is, maybe it isn't"; look for other things that rule out Kung Flu. Like actual influenza flu.) Given the abysmally slow return time of Kung Flu test samples, I believe at least one was positive for Kung Flu.
"Ten patients? Is that all?!? Aesop is fulla sh*t! This is a big conjob nothingburger!" - every two-digit IQ soopergenius who ever read a word I wrote on this topic.And herewith, we digress for a bit.
Scenario One: You're in the military. In a combat zone. The enemy is known to have chemical weapons. One day, a shell whistles over from the enemy side of things, and goes off with a less than enthusiastic bang. Then another, and another. You see a hazy white cloud forming at each impact site, coalescing into a large white cloud, now drifting lazily towards your position.
a) send the company dumbass Gilligan over there to have a sniff for you, and report back
b) send the whole company of men over, and see what happens
c) put Gilligan in temporary command, and have him lead the whole company over there
d) Yell "GAS! GAS! GAS!", while clanging metal-on-metal, and then rapidly don your MOPP gear and gas mask, before the cloud blows into your position, and prepare to treat anyone nearby who was slower on the uptake.
Scenario Two: You're working in a hospital. An ambulance arrives, and unloads a patient spurting blood everywhere, who tells you he just arrived from the Congo, where he runs an HIV and Ebola Survivors Clinic, and tripped on the jetway and cut his leg open.
a) run over and apply direct pressure with your bare hands, while fountaining blood cascades into your eyes, nose, and mouth, and lick yourself clean afterwards
b) yell at all your other co-workers to join you in performing "a"
c) Both "a" and "b"
d) put on appropriate gown, gloves, and mask with splatter shield, and apply an emergency tourniquet
In case you were wondering, the correct answer to both scenarios is "d".
You always assume the worst, from common sense, and institutional policy, and over-prepare, so you can deal with it easily if it turns out to be less-than.
You don't grab your .22 to go take on that African Cape Buffalo, and then find out you needed a bit more to get it done. Unless you're a farking moron.
I told you that story so I could tell you this one:
Some days back, I stated that I didn't think we'd bring Kung Flu patients into the hospital, but instead, triage them in tents outside, then send the ones meeting criteria to some FEMA-set-up Kung Flu Treatment Center, staffed as possible, and serviced by dedicated Hazmat 9-1-1 ambulances, whisking members of the community there as appropriate, in full protective gear, 24/7/365.
Because, as I argued with flawless logic, to do otherwise would be to
a) risk our entire healthcare system being overwhelmed and destroyed, a la Italy, and
b) make every other medical emergency impossible to deal with, thus doubling casualties from every other treatable and preventable cause of death, from heart attacks and strokes to appendicitis, because the entirety of any and every hospital would be filled with Kung Flu-infected plague petri dishes, in every nook and cranny.
Turns out, TPTB, top to bottom, make the Italians look like Leonardo da Vinci.
1) We're not putting tents up everywhere.
2) We're not segregating people out of the hospital.
3) We'll do a half-assed triage assessment outside the building somewhere (fill in the blank where___________)
4) Using screening criteria overtaken by reality a month ago, because the CDC, no matter how asinine, is always the CDC
4a) to wit, asking about foreign travel, even though homegrown community-acquired cases outstrip foreign travel candidates, and have for two weeks
4b) ask about exposure to known Kung Flu patients, even though the CDC and local public health departments refused to test for Kung Flu until four days ago, in most cases, (due to jackassery, fuckwittery, and a dearth of functional kits for two months) thus insuring via Catch-22, that if you never test for King Flu, nobody anyone was in contact with ever officially has Kung Flu
5) then bring the infected into an appropriate sealed negative airflow room
5a) which cleverly has no patient monitoring equipment
5b) will not allow you to get portable chest x-ray equipment into the room with the patient with respiratory problems (which, also cleverly, no one thought about prior to then)
5c) which would contaminate said portable x-ray equipment every time you got it into the quarantine room
5d) which would require an extensive, nigh impossible decontamination of said X-ray equipment for each and every subsequent patient
5e) thus leading to shooting x-rays outside the building, or in other places that probably violate 27 hospital safety policies, local health and safety codes, and probably eleventy Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations regarding radiological safety of patients, staff, and bystanders, in a slow-rolling Chernobyl sort of way
5f) and taking them to CT scanners which are then contaminated, and failing to do a full terminal clean of said rooms and equipment each and every time, which would take them offline for hours each shift, and necessitate closing the hospital to ambulance traffic, so why bother cleaning?
6)unless you're fresh out of negative airflow rooms, in which case you
7) put them into open rooms with no protection or containment
8) thus insuring that all staff members and other patients are exposed over and over again
9) to cases which will not be tested for Kung Flu unless they're first proven negative for the flu
10) Or not.
11) All such "policies" being rather more like the Pirates Code ("just guidelines, really"), purely at the whimsy and caprice of whatever doctor(s), charge nurses, or cranky old bat nurse has phone duty that day at the Public Health office, and their personal and capricious interpretation of the current (of four or five or six, so far) CDC guidelines
12) which apparently are changed every hour, if not more frequently
13) while the managers, and senior management, who should be living in the same shoes and underpants 24/7/365 in the hospital until they sort this shit out, weekend or no, but whom are instead nowhere to be seen, heard from, or in any wise directly involved, until the total colossal clusterfuck falls over from its own weight seven or eight times over, between Friday afternoon and the middle of the following week.
14) while staff and patients, having to deal with the results of people with Acute-on-Chronic Head-Up-The-Ass-Syndrome, are repeatedly subjected to potential pandemic exposure, leading to sickness, preventative quarantine, lawsuits, and death
15) as the Low IQ staff members, who still think this is no big deal, continue to half-ass every bit of their response, 24/7/365, because half of them were below the upper/lower cut in their graduating classes as well.
THAT'S WHAT YOU'RE GETTING.
The CDC (as per usual, going back
Supervisory staff puts on its Lemming Suicide Squad Crash Helmet and blinders, and announces that the Light Brigade will smartly charge right over the cliff.
Grunt-level staff, doctors, nurses, ancillary members, etc. will continue to work until
a) they can't take the bullshit
b) they get sick
c) they realize their own family's safety trumps a paycheck.
Instead of learning from Italy's mistakes, and trying to save people and the overall healthcare system, we're going to keep on half-assing this until we're in it over our heads, and then drown, because stupid. Instead of making the hard call early, and working the kinks out now, when it would have been easy, when it's five patients a week, we'll wait until it's 500 patients an hour, and then crash and burn in a glorious orgy of stupidity.
I expect people to hit the wall.
This is all new to everyone.
There hasn't been a pandemic like this in 100 years.
BUT I ALSO EXPECTED THEM NOT TO BE SO GODDAMN STUPID AFTER THEY HIT THE WALL ONCE AS TO NOT THEN RUN HEADFIRST INTO IT TEN OR TWENTY MORE TIMES, IN RAPID SUCCESSION, SIMPLY BECAUSE THEY CAN.
That last expectation was misguided, being most clearly irrational hubris overcoming a solid and well-founded pessimism about people in general, the universality of the Peter Principle, and the inevitability of people, left to their own devices, shooting themselves in the feet until they run out of feet, or ammunition. And then, reloading.
Having said (and witnessed, firsthand) all of the above, and after understating it by at least half (you really have NO idea) there's only one way to deal with this, for me:
I mean that last, most sincerely. We're all going to go through this. Harden the fuck up.
Take care of yourselves.
Take care of your families.
Take care of your friends.
Take care of Your People.
No one is coming to save you.
Not the government.
Not. Any. One.
Everything is Your Responsibility.
Deal With your Shit.
Get It Done.
YOYO = You're On Your Own
Best Wishes. Really.
And if, watching the economy do a SMOD impact into your life, and the entire nation go onto a (mostly voluntary) full lockdown quarantine, you still think this is just a hype and a nothing burger, I can't help you.
If you're right, I don't need to; and if I'm right, no one will miss you.
Preciate you doin the math; gives us some waypoints to look for. Guess we'll find out "what's so" in a few weeks.
Can't say I'm sanguine but we're about as prepared as we can get; we'll still try to top-off some things as opportunities present but otherwise six months is the planning figure. Filled the last space in the "canned goods" stock, though will continue to expend for training/proficiency's sake.
Best to you and yours,
I have been in a hospital today. Looks like a bunker, with security in every door. You do not get in unless you have a reason to enter. When you enter you are accompanied at all times by a nurse in full PPE gear.
That said, it was because two screwups in two Norwegian hospitals. Here they learn fast. There they will too.
Oh sweet Jebus. I know your rationale but maybe it's time to set some limits??
I just got this invite to a CDC webinar tomorrow. The slides are available today.
Answering 20 Questions about COVID-19
Jay Butler, MD
Deputy Director for Infectious Diseases
Public health professionals
Certified health educators
Slides 1,2,3,4 - paraphrased
Sitrep, how severe is it, how does it spread, when will it end.
Should Americans be
concerned about traveling
to some countries or
about travelers from other
Should we be
concerned about travel
within the U.S.?
What should people
consider to avoid
---WTF? that's your 7th concern? How some theoretical person might feel about words you say?
What are quarantine,
isolation, and social
distancing – and who
---WTF? if you don't know this, why are you in medicine at all?
What are CDC, other
federal agencies, and state
and local health
departments doing to
prepare for and respond
to this outbreak?
---GOING TO DO? to PREPARE? It's here! What have you done? What's coming?
What advice would you
give for businesses that
have close contact with
What advice would you
give for K-12 schools?
What advice would
you give to
What can people do
at the neighborhood
level to help?
What should people
do if they use public
---stay the F home!
---if anyone was still wondering about why CDC gets a bad rap....
Is it safe to go to
What should people
like gloves and masks?
How can people stay
COVID-19 in their
What should people
tell their children?
---then open Q and A
---how's everyone's confidence in our TOP MEN??
How much faith do I have in the human race (confidence in our top men)?
I look both ways at a roundabout...
In the time you posted this, and now, the US # is at a hair over 5k, with a full 30% in NY alone.
And I am still reading comments from people who never got beyond two-dimensional math skills. Some of the are quite angry. I don't boot them. I think it's good to keep an eye out for them, where they are, and what they're planning. And not be anywhere near them.
I'm good here. Mom is grounded for the foreseeable future. Been tumbling the thought of how much to add to the cash on hand (as in out of the bank).
5-point seatbelt strapped.
Thanks for everything you've done to try and get people to be ready, and lately to wake tf up, dammit.
UK science bods saying 10-14 weeks to hit the peak of infected.
NHS has stated that, when things get sporty, they will not treat people over age 80, or those who are very seriously ill with the Virus. One consequence of that is that there will be soldiers at the Hospitals ... 'cos not everyone will take that news gracefully ..."Sorry, but we are offering nothing to your Grandpa."
Quite a bit of evidence of families 'tightening up' and excluding 'other', especially as it's apparent that Social Services have no plan and no capacity to support the vulnerable in such a crisis. So, that's quite a good thing, really.
Oh, and suddenly, everyone's a Prepper.
Following the John Hopkins "Official" numbers for the USA:
3/9 - 554
3/11 - 1110
3/14 - 2571
3/17 - 5702
+1041 cases since 1130PM 3/16 (4661)
So it is currently doubling about every 3 days.
We are well and truly fucked. How many businesses can stand to be close for a month without going bankrupt? How many people? How about two months? I don’t see how this doesn’t literally and spoiled as we know it let alone crash societies cultures and lead to all out Armageddon. I just can’t see it any other way unless the government literally pays everything prince money like there’s no tomorrow because truly there isn’t at this point. They will literally have to nationalize the entire economy if they want to keep their jobs because shorts that we are looking at all the major cities burning full anarchy and pandemonium in a mad max scenario.
Thank you for this thank you for continually trying to warn people and update them on the real medical situation. We are most certainly going to crash. A friend of mine for 35 years is a cardio pulmonary specialist ER doctor in New York and he’s been updating me regularly and he says everything you say and more. We are well and truly fucked. How many people do you think I actually have two months worth of food and water stored? How many Have more than that? I would say 90% I don’t have a weeks worth of food or $400 to their name. The medical system surely will collapse but the entire western world could possibly collapse and be erased from the earth.
A quote: "If it was just beds we needed, we could take all the surplus army cots from the 2M guys RIFFed from Uncle Sam in the 1990s, unfold them, and Presto!, have another 2M spots to dump patients. It doesn't work like that."
Yes it does. It works exactly like that, they (sorry I mean WE) will be laid out on cots in hastily erected tents. A bit later, our corpses will be loaded into dump trucks and buried in trenches.
As it stands now, even with full support, 50% of the people that get sick enough to need a vent don't make it.
As it stands now, even with full support, 50% of the people that get sick enough to need a vent don't make it."
--in some places it's worse than that.
Went to local bank to yank a large amount of cash out, was told no..
I insisted in very specific terms as to why not, and in the end walked out with desired amount..
A few weeks ago, i pulled similar amount out, and all they asked me was what type of bills i wanted it in...no hassle at all...
I fully expect limits to be set, for if folks are sick, how are armored trucks gonna roll...
here's a great link to a classic Bracken pice on the music stopping, prescient i might add, like Aesop himself...
Because, as I argued with flawless logic, to do otherwise would be to ... [totally, fatally, screw up everything for everyone]
Aesop, not getting this right is potentially fatal stupidity. That was the tell that it would not be gotten right.
A great many of our ruling class and their managerial minions hate us and want us dead. Fatal failures are great, especially if they can blame it on Orange Man Bad.
Among the few upper echelons who don't hate us, there is at least the standard issue amount of normalcy bias, which will keep them from being ``extreme.''
Finally, the manager class wants to be seen following procedure. If procedure kills everyone, they won't be yelled at, while saving people by breaking procedure might get them yelled at - and might not save people anyway, they will tell themselves.
A couple of related side notes:
Been seeing an uptick on stories about "hoarders" and "Hoarding". One definition of a hoarder being used seems to be: "that person is smarter and better prepared than I am and he is not doing enough to protect me from the consequences of my complacency and inability to plan".
Nice article on Politico of all places about why calling up the military to "fix" these issues (as advocated by persons usually with a (D) after their name with no F'ing clue about the military) is not a useful suggestion:
TLDR: The military system (including contingency and surge capabilities) is designed to handle trauma suffered by young and fit persons, which is NOT what is needed to supplement the US medical system in any meaningful way.
.mil here. We are about as blind and stupid as the rest of .gov on this. If I could I would describe the stupidity at my command, but it would give certain things away so let me just say, AESOP IS RIGHT. No one is coming to save you. Hell, most of .mil are an absolute reflection of the stupidity of the general pop. 22 years and I can tel you I trust, truly trust maybe 5 superior officers I’ve ever worked for, 11 senior Enlisted, and maybe, just maybe about 20 regular squids. And most of them have retired by now.
Graham Kill House Rules:
Nobody is coming to save you
EVERYTHING is your responsibility <- <- <-(this one is GOLDEN!)
Save who needs to be saved
Kill who needs to be killed
Always be working
MEMO TO AESOP & READERS: Be it known, as of 16 MAR 2020, various and sundry teams of CERTIFIED ENGINEERS of the civvie species have been summoned to examine various and sundry LOCAL government facilities nationwide for "conversion" of their facility to "negative air pressure facilities" at the double-quick. These LOCALITIES include standing county/city halls, rec centers, even holding facilities and jails. Said CERTIFIED ENGINEERS' initial feasibility/cost study are staggering in their manpower and funds needed, notwithstanding that the TIME issue is 'THESE CONVERSIONS ARE ALL REQUIRED BY TOMORROW."
Your gentle informant herewith has not seen any smiling faces nor laughter from said CERTIFIED ENGINEERS as to these projects. Grim faces aplenty, tho.
The only way for a person to function properly in a Covid 19 Pandemic is to realize you are already dead.
@ 2:46 PM
Even if the Engineers find hundreds of places who's going to provide care ? Might as well stay home. Unless they think it's a good idea for fast pickup of bodies afterwards on the way to the incinerators/cemetaries.
Thanks, Aesop, for all that you do to get the word out about this situation. We all know that you must be exhausted after work, but you still persist in posting...and I know that I speak for all of us in being very grateful.
What absolutely amazes me is the incredible ability of large portions of the human tribe to deny reality. How the fuck did our species survive, let alone get to the top of the food chain, with so much STUPID? Maybe that's why the aliens haven't come, because there's precious little evidence of intelligent life on this ball of dirt.
I cannot tell you all how many people I know say words to the effect of "It's just the flu, bro." I'm sure that all of you have the same experience, just with different people that are also as dumb as a stump. One relative of mine, who has a biology degree and grew up in a medical household - and whom I love and respect for many, many things he has said and done - has completely bought into the "It's just the flu, bro" mentality. Perhaps he's changing a bit now, but with less than 6,000 reported cases and under 100 deaths so far, I doubt it. He's also near 70, and his kids live in NYFC, so maybe he is just too scared to admit the truth to himself that this is a Class A clusterfuck for our nation, and that he and his kids might not survive.
Meanwhile, at least some of the herd is catching on that the wolf is at the door...the line around Sam's Club near me (San Antonio) was at least 300 people long about 15 minutes after they opened this morning...I turned around and left, but at least some of them will get some food and other supplies and not be banging on my door as soon. I got a few things at regular grocery stores to add to the supplies that I picked up over the last 3 weeks or so, but can always use more - so I'll be getting up earlier tomorrow.
My teenagers are bored to death in the house. Last night they got the "I don't give a fuck if you like it or not, this is the way it's going to be" speech...and they did not like that, either. The keys to the car that older teen uses have been taken away. I am shocked that I have to tell them "hey, why don't you watch something on your phone or call some friends," when during normal times I'm telling them the exact opposite because that's ALL that they want to do (besides eating and sleeping). I'm now seriously considering buying a large supply of duct tape so that I'm sure that they stay still and stop complaining. :>)
Fairly soon, I'll also be on line elsewhere - Academy, to get more 00 and hollowpoints for my AR and .45. I'm not going to allow anyone in my house whom I don't approve of, not for free.
Hopefully, all of these preps are for nothing much, but I don't think so.
No arguments here but wondering if you've seen the article at Borepatch re: the Diamond Princess study.
I went into one of the major hospitals here in Central Phoenix last Thursday to pick up some medical records for my wife. Nobody was wearing masks. Not doctors, nurses, intake receptionists, or cafeteria workers. I saw only two people wearing nitrite gloves, a cashier in the cafeteria and a guy emptying trash cans. Everybody was allowed to come and go anywhere they wanted. No sign of even a regular security guard.
The normalcy bias is STRONG here, and it is going to cause many preventable deaths, especially among health care workers. Aesop, I hope and pray that you will know what day is the right day for you to clock out at end of shift and NOT COME BACK.
TPTBdon't like math any more than the Gilligans do. For example, they haven't modeled how many people will die if they tank the economy. The number isn't zero, sure as God made little green apples.
So what is the chance they calculated that # deaths from runaway virus > # deaths from taking the economy? Zero point zero zero.
Sad to say those of us that have the triage and disaster roll-out training and hands-on experience have been retired for too long for anyone to give a listen. The Mil system WAS designed, post Pearl Harbor, to ramp-up in 24 to 48hours. Hell I could order a 1000 bed hospital with just 1 NSN and get it DELIVERED in 72 hours. But the continued training those of us so trained needed to pass on died on the diversity and femlib quota tables. God pity Political Correctness advocates 'cause I won't.
Aesop, i thought you were wrong on it lasting the entire year.
Now, I think you were an optimist.
I suggested cutting everyone a check for a grand every month just a few short weeks ago.
Now I hear Mitt Romney is flogging that same idea today.
I guess it really was a stupid idea, if Willard Romney supports it.
Good points all, and yes a few of us are listening.
Why negative pressure Facilities?
You are better off doing a once through ventilation expelling it through filters and a UV bank.
Stop the virus from contaminating everything downwind.
Although if the exhaust fans are big enough, and the building tight enough, you will pull negative pressures.
But I am gld to hear they are taking this seriously FINALLY.
They should have started around Valentines Day.
COVID-19 How to Use One Ventilator to Save Multiple Lives
For an example of where this is headed.
"The 950-bed hospital has been brought to its knees because of the crisis, with more than 400 of the beds used by coronavirus patients and three of the hospital's four most senior staff off sick."
'The secret has been - and this should be a strong message for foreign countries - to act early on this, in order to avoid - like in our case - having to chase after it day after day,' Cattaneo said.
'Until three weeks ago, we did everything for every patient.
'Now we have to choose which patients to put in intensive care. This is catastrophic.'
The hospital's once rapid emergency response is also at breaking point, with even people reporting heart attacks waiting an hour on the phone
the team were caught off-guard by the epidemic, he said that ambulance staff have not been trained for such a contagion, and revealed many have become infected after their vehicles became contaminated.
Dispatcher Diego Bianco, a 40-something with no underlying health conditions, even died.
'What is really shocking - something we had not been able to forecast and brought us to our knees - is the quickness the epidemic spreads.
'If the spreading of this epidemic is not put under control, it will bring all hospitals to their knees.'
---no one can do math any more. At least their doubling rate has slowed to 4 days.
Well, crap. I've been Mr. Frickin' Positive, blowing smoke up my own butt, while at the same time pointing out the potential exponential growth of this crud.
Optimism turning to pessimism - I picked the wrong week to leave my supplies and come to NJ. But the house isn't gonna sell itself...I just hope the feds don't lock down the highwys before the new counter tops go in.
Interesting times. I want to go home.
I am sure this will be fine:
Spring Break Florida. More ventilators for us!
This was actually useful–
Thanks again Aesop for doing the math and trying mightily to get people to see reality.
Couple of observations from today: 1) Dr. was on the radio today saying Americans should donate 'hoarded' N95 masks. Guess the ole' doc didn't get out much in Jan and early Feb. Local stores hereabouts were out of all masks NLT 10 Feb. The only people I saw buying them were probably sending them to China (or price gouging Chinese). 2) MSM is starting to try to cover their asses. Read one today that KungFlu was obvious and Trump is lying or an idiot to say it took us by surprise. If memory serves, and I'm sure it does, these are the same asshats who called those of us watching and taking appropriate action in Dec/Jan/Feb 'conspiracy theorists' or believers in 'fake news'. Then it was 'its just the flu bro'.
Saw a story about SK infections increased by stupid church goers. Looks like stupid is not rampant only in the US.
May God have mercy on us all.
If recent observed behavior is any guide, we’re screwed - so, lady who occasionally watches a little kid from Atlanta decides to bring this little angel down to lower Alabama, whereupon said angel plays for a few hours with “other kids.” Next day, “other kids” play at family cookout with “More kids” around immediate family for a few hours outdoors. More kids and family go home. Next day, parental units go to their places of work. Parental unit 1 is in close proximity to a dozen to 15 people all day, and lesser contact with another dozen or so all day. That night, parental units are told “ little angel” has tested positive for COVID-19. Parental unit immediately calls supervisor who the reaches out to other managers. Early morning deacon commences as possible with chlorine wipes on every surface in the office. Parental unit is told by dph that they won’t test for COVID-19 until symptomatic. Employee was told to work from home and will do so minimum 4 weeks (14 days ain’t enough as we’ve learned). Rest of office will be working remotely starting tomorrow for most, and the rest soonest - it isn’t so easy given the industry. So, little angel, along with idiot relative potentially exposed hundreds at least in just a few days.
I feel for the people on the front lines.
The fact their facility doesn't have enough PPEs is not my fault, nor is it theirs.
Their management, the shareholders, and all the Wall Street types who pushed to reduce costs are at fault. THEY decided not to stockpile enough. Frickin' CDC has been shouting out about pandemic flu for a decade. The administration and the money guys pushed the cost of warehousing off on their suppliers. They decided to send old stock to surplus auctions and NOT replace it to save the storage and acquisition cost. They adopted "Lean" and "Just in Time" and traded resiliency for reduced cost.
They insisted on lowest cost for what they did buy, and the money men pushed manufacturers to move production offshore, where they could use slave labor and had a more "favorable" environmental regulatory "environment".
3M has now lost a whole plant in china to nationalization, and we've lost all the output of that plant. IIRC there is ONE remaining US manufacturer of respirator masks. No one in hospital admin said "hey, we're better off paying 3c more per mask to ensure we have them when we really need them" because they'd be crushed by activist shareholders and hedge funds.
They made calculated decisions about risk and came up snake eyes this time. If you're angry about it, make sure they pay for choosing risks they themselves won't have to face.
I do salvage and surplus auctions for a living. With few exceptions, most of the masks on ebay (outside of sellers with only a few boxes) were surplussed after reaching their "expiration" date. TRUCKLOADS were dumped on the surplus market in Houston alone. Habitat for Humanity ReStore had them on the shelf for years as various stockpiles were liquidated and (apparently) not replaced. FEMA has since determined that the expired masks, if the rubber parts were still good, were fine at the job of stopping particles. No one has approved the use of 'expired' product yet though.
They did approve the use of certified N95 masks without the correct stamp on the packaging, allowing industrial masks for medical use. That's a good first step.
It wasn't bad luck, unfortunate circumstances, or greed on the part of resellers that led to these shortages. It was one decision after another made by people who wouldn't have to suffer the consequences that led to this. Remember and make them pay.
Your first line is the truth. We have no idea. I sit here contemplating sending your monologue to a group of friends in the morning. Some who have said "its just the flu brah". I know who will poo poo it but thats okay. Aesop you get kudos, I saw where someone got pissed at the "Kung Flu" name it gave me a chuckle when it shouldn't. The virus hasn't worried me personally since all this began but there is a possibility that the economic impact could end up worse than '29. I did not say probability people, but there is that to. Aesop touched on it briefly. Trillions in global debt who knows. Aesop you and Remus are high on my prayer list. I have to keep reminding myself God is in control and everyone is an instrument in that plan. I could have probably should have died in January. Pulminary Embolism he must not be done with me but am doing great. God speed and good luck, going to work with all the stupidity around is why I took early retirement when they wanted to cut my pay 50%. I really really wanted to tell them they were number 1 but I thought better of it. If you decide to cut bait you have done more than most in getting us prepared and that is all you can do. It is honorable to a point but you have to take care of yourself as well like you have done for us.
As per usual, TPTB are probably going to implement measures that might have been useful 2 to 4 weeks ago when now they're probably too late to do much good.
Locally we're up to about 2 dozen cases confirmed, with much of the region shutting down. Schools have been closed since Friday, restaurants are closed except for takeout, as are gyms, libraries, government buildings, casinos, and a good chunk of retail stores. Why on earth the geniuses haven't closed the airport, the mass public transit, or the malls remains a mystery.
At work, all the staff are probably shifting to work from home status by week's end (would have been sooner had the bug out plan been ready last week instead of being slapped together in a hurry in the wake of mass closures beginning last Thursday). So long as there is power and internet we will likely keep going as we handle supply chain logistics. So far we have not yet seen a disruption in the supply chains we handle.
"So far we have not yet seen a disruption in the supply chains we handle."
Wait until truck drivers start getting sick, or the warehouse type box kickers at either end of their routes.
Then money will be worthless, all you got then is gold or lead.
A Texan: The reason Hugh Manity survived in the past was because the mentally challenged ones became tiger turds and fertilized the jungle. Today however, they become welfare and homeless folks.
Blogger Robin Datta said...
A Texan: The reason Hugh Manity survived in the past was because the mentally challenged ones became tiger turds and fertilized the jungle. Today however, they become welfare and homeless folks.
March 18, 2020 at 1:05 AM
Too darn many became government bureaucrats, lawyers, and education professionals.
Do you remember the H1N1 “Swine Flu” pandemic that took place in 2009-2010? By March 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated “that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and over 12,000 died."
I remember not being in anywhere near the state of concern then I guess I'm supposed to be feeling now. There certainly wasn't anything close to the actions being taken by government then that there are now. There was talk of maybe closing day care and schools but if that was even done, it wasn't close to the scale of closings we're seeing now.
I'm dead certain of 1 thing. The scum sucking media in this country hates this president. They have done literally everything in their power to end his presidency.
I'm not whistling past the graveyard by any means. We are well stocked with food, water and ammo but we were before this. Let's just say we're prudent and skeptical.
Time will tell.
My local Academy was already sold out of 9mm, 00, and ALL 5.56 on Monday.
As a health care provider in a ruralupstate ny hospital, this analysis is dead on. Just like the tsa, we have quarantine theater here. Just sad, no sense of urgency...truly yoyo.
Plain old regular flu, this flu season, has infected 55 Million people with several 100s of 1,000s hospitalized and over 55,000 have died.
And that's kinda high but still normal.
Plain old regular flu has an upper limit on how many it can infect because of immunity in the population. No true of CV.
And why is it, every time I see a reference to regular flu the numbers of infected and dead INCREASE with each reference? Either people are (in)advertently increasing for emphasis, or the flu is a LOT worse than we are normally told. I know which one I think is true [and not a reflection on MMinLaMesa.]
Here you go-CDC estimates for this season's fly
@MM, thanks for the link. I wonder where the earlier lower numbers were coming from, and when that page was last updated...
Neal Stephenson (writer) made the point that electronic documents don't actually document anything as in freezing it in place just as it was.
Now I'm questioning if the numbers got changed, or if they have only been using the harder (lower) numbers from the surveillance until now. I also want to see some of the calcs underlying that *asterisk*.
If the regular flu kills 55,000 this season, and Covid -19 kills 30x that number (low estimate btw, see kill rates in other countries), we're looking at millions of deaths during this outbreak.
Comparing regular flu deaths to this thing before it's even begun is stupid.
"I suggested cutting everyone a check for a grand every month just a few short weeks ago."
What's the POINT!? Gonna go out to empty stores with locked doors cause no staff to SPEND that $1k with? Gonna hit the banks to deposit it so you can buy online from places with no staff to read and fulfill your order, no shipping dock folks to pack it, and no trucking to bring it to you?
Gonna try to pay your mortgage to that closed bank or online? I'm afraid I'm watching my company fail: got parts to make the goods to sell but my customers are infrastructure workers: who's gonna and how will they PAY them to inspect the coatings on the walls of nuclear reactor buildings or the rust depth on bridges and buildings? What's the POINT of them going out and risking their lives to determine that "this structure needs rehab" -- when no one is available or willing to do the rehab? Even if I get a sale - will UPS be available to deliver it? (I'm praying my financial security cushion will last as long as I need it to -- but then what?)
I'd REALLY like to see what the govt preps are for not letting this country fall into absolute hell, but I'm 95% certain they have NO IDEA! I've laid in supplies to self-treat if God forbid I get (or have gotten?) corona-chan. Food, water, OTC meds to treat symptoms if I do fall sick, lotsa ammo. But under no circumstances would I go to any hospital (and it'd be the VA -- so even less useful!) I AM kicking myself for putting up updating my will: and doubt it's a good idea to try to go do it now!
Still, no tremendously active despair. My motto since my husband died is: I have no choice. You do your duty because it IS your duty -- and not because you think it will always win.
Ned said, "Comparing regular flu deaths to this thing before it's even begun is stupid."
In China, where it started, new cases are leveling off(ahem, according to Commies). They've reported 130,000 in a population of 1.4 Billion(again...Commies)
In Italy(not commies), current new cases for the past 4 days have dropped slightly as has deaths(after a big jump).
I think you need to take a deep breath here dude.
After both countries put the entire society on a no-shit, no exception full lockdown. (Italy's is a tad softer and fuzzier, but still...).
We're just getting warmed up here, and there's officially "no plans" for doing anything like that here.
We're going to slow-roll into being Italy first, then we'll do it.
After it's too late to help, most likely.
I believe what you've said and this about sum it up. But I take courage that Spears lived through the war.
I have faith the American people will do the right thing,....after they've tried every other option.
As a data gathering exercise, I've been driving a loop that runs by the local hospital (decent size - we are a suburb of Philly) , small medical complex, and a scattering of regular physician offices, etc.
I've been doing almost every few days since mid-February to see if I would notice anything different - especially at the medical complex since it has a busy parking lot even in the summer. It should be noted that the first cases of the Chinese flu were noted late February here, and then cases were noted in Philadelphia and another neighboring county.
Another interesting 'feature' is that in North Wales, PA (very close to the hospital) there are several Asian markets with a large Korean and Chinese population. These markets are next door to major box stores, LA Fitness and all of the other trash one would expect to grow in areas too close to a major city to remain farmland.
Also, until MONDAY NIGHT, all bars, restaurants etc were open, people were on the bike paths, people were in the parks, etc
As of today - I see NO signs of INCREASED ACTIVITY at the hospital, clinics, etc. I asked a friend of our who is a doctor at the hospital and has her own private practice if she has seen a major increase in SERIOUS flooding her hospital -- she said NOT YET.
Our area did not stop the contagion during late February and early March. The horse left the barn a while back and the closing of schools and having people stay home is not going to be the cause of the 'curve flattening' at this point -- it is what it is and it has been out there for probably two months.
These blanket quarantines, the tanking of businesses, the stress of putting people out of work, the constant media hype over a flu that can target some folks harder than others is irresponsible and plays into an agenda that feels nefarious beyond belief.
Could it be to protect the indigent class in urban areas by the bolsheviks that run those places and their scared shit of what might happen to their hellholes if it runs rampant through those neighborhoods?
Could it be that latent TB in many illegals from shithole areas will react badly with this strain of the flu?
Could the LGBT crowd and other low immune groups be more at risk of dying?
Is this just another blanket trans-fat, sugary drink tax that everyone gets to pay with because some "special groups" are more likely to get ill but we can name them for the sake of EQUALITY?
And I love that with each of the 'events' all of the armchair experts come out to lecture us on statistics, exponential growth curves, biology and genetics.
No one knows how this plays out, but we will find out real soon. From all that I can see, it's just a flu. We'll know in 2 weeks and the curve wasn't flattened because bars closed yesterday....
S Korea took no extraordinary measures like Italy or China has taken and it's case numbers are dropping rapidly.
This isn't the Black Plague or ebola. Accurate fatality rates are hard to gauge but Joseph Wu and Kathy Leung of the University of Hong Kong, leaders in the modeling of infectious diseases, using data from Wuhan concluded the chance of someone with symptomatic Covid-19 dying varied by age, confirming other studies. For those aged 15 to 44, the fatality rate was 0.5%, though it might have been as low as 0.1% or as high as 1.3%. For people 45 to 64, the fatality rate was also 0.5%, with a possible low of 0.2% and a possible high of 1.1%. For those over 64, it was 2.7%, with a low and high estimate of 1.5% and 4.7%
Further the chance of serious illness from coronavirus infection in younger people was so low, the scientists estimate a fatality rate of zero.
It's not a death sentence, not even close.
Data from Wuhan? Sorry, but those numbers are not real. LOTS of evidence.
In Italy closed cases 4:3 live. You get it, you've got BARELY better than even odds of dying. Elsewhere that ratio is reversed.
BTW that sort of mortality is more in line with the panic in China, and with the other evidence like bodies stacked in vans, and plumes of emissions consistent with cremations, and portable cremation facilities.
"barely better than even odds of NOT dying." sorry.
and wrt knowing next week, yup, and we said that two weeks ago too, before this doubled a bunch of times.
Go to sources closer to the action and look for yourself. Twitter during the wuhan die off. Italian press now. Hong Kong press.
FUCK, look at Washington state. They're already maxed on ventilators and it's 'just a couple of old folks homes and some first responders' so far.
There is no excess capacity in the system. EVEN IF this is just a terrible flu, there aren't enough beds.
Do whatever makes you feel comfortable, I'm not trying to change minds anymore, but I know what makes ME feel comfortable, doing everything I can to NOT get this. And part of that is encouraging the measures that MIGHT provide some small increase in my chances.
Nick, those rates, while from Wuhan and I share your hesitation to believe Commies, are for people that have caught the virus.
The death rate in Italy is way out of whack with other Euro countries and the explanation is probably how the medical care system was overwhelmed. For whatever reason, the caseload in the country grew so fast that it overwhelmed healthcare systems. This resulted in an abnormally large number of deaths.
Germany for example with similar demos has a death rate of .21% compared with Italy's 7%. Something clearly is different in Italy. Maybe the 100s of 1,000s of Chinese living in n Italy with direct flights to Wuhan?
Read the report linked to in the next post.
Note that based on their analysis, regardless of what is done, the projections are that from May 1-August 1, life is hell, and all ICUs are overwhelmed.
They aren't saying might.
They're saying, point blank, with their assumptions clearly stated, that the UK and the US are going to be Italy inside of 2 months, and stay that way all summer (May/June/July), and they're projecting 1M US deaths.
Broken down to my level, that's 200 deaths/week at my hospital. 15/day, if half die at home, and half in the building. Every day for three months. One every hour and a half. They won't be leaving in ambulances, they'll be going out in dump trucks full of corpses.
And 5X as many admitted, until we can't, because no beds.
Which is about three days into that 90-day period. At which point we're full.
They assume 10-16 days of hospitalization, on average.
(Oh, and no capability to care for any other patients, so many of them will die too.)
"those rates... are for people that have caught the virus." -- YES!!! and that has always been my point. You don't want to get this. You don't want anyone you love to get it. IF you get it, and get sick enough to be hospitalized, you are in a world of hurt.
Since without a universal and reliable antibody test we will never know the true number of people who have it without being hospitalized, there really isn't any way to come up with a reasonable number for your risk IN GENERAL. To insist that one guess or another is better is arguing over angels dancing on pins.
We DO have good numbers for hospital admissions and outcomes, and just applying exponential growth to those numbers would eventually get us to 100% certainty of getting it. SOMETHING will usually slow exponential growth before it gets to everyone, like the reduction in vulnerable population given by immunity, but we aren't even sure that you GET lasting immunity.
My point has always been that we see exponential growth in known good numbers. We can start from known good numbers, and don't have to guess at what the percentages of overall population might be. The AT RISK population is EVERYONE since this is by definition a 'novel' virus. No one has natural immunity. Unless something changes the trajectory and doubling rate, we can be pretty certain that at some point in the future the intersection of "The entire population of the earth" and "people that have had Kung Flu" is unity. Like the regular flu. There is no place on earth you can't get the regular flu (at least some strain of it.)
The only questions are, how long does it take to get to that point?
What might slow that or stop it completely (virus might mutate and die out, others have)?
What will increase my chances of living the longest (so that a treatment or vaccine can be developed)?
At the point where exponential doubling from known cases exceeds the population, we can be pretty sure that everyone had it, and only then can we truly know the % numbers for who was mild, serious, acute, dead, or appeared to be unaffected. Anything before that point is guessing, and in the end, doesn't matter.
The decisions about how to react as custodians of nation states have already been taken by people above our paygrade. Now we're along for the ride.
Rational argument and cold hearted logical risk assessment almost never works on a personal level, only organizational. I think that's because the org makes OTHER people pay the consequences of their assessment. If you have to pay the consequences yourself you tend to react from emotion rather than fact, either acting very conservatively or by ignoring real risks in favor of imagined risk.
At this point, we're mostly along for the ride.
SHTF is a cruel instructor, no one is graded on the curve,its strictly pass or fail, those who simply deny reality with their head in the sand have made their choice to expire,you
need to concentrate your energy & resources on those who are able to be saved. Time is short,love & cherish your family while you are still blessed to have them.
have you considered having to defend your prep supplies? The devil's in the details of the executive orders when they enact The National emergency act.The guv cam seize everything from food, water, guns, ammo,first aid supplies. Im sorry for your loss,im alone as well, as we all are to some degree
God keep watch over you
Cumberland County Pa. On Monday it was 5 confirmed cases, Today it is ten confirmed cases. The case count doubled in just three days! I am guessing if there are ten confirmed cases then these people walking around leaving their germs behind wherever they go has already infected lets say ten more, which means there are about one hundred walking around Cumberland County unknowingly spreading this death virus.
I said my bit now pass the toilet paper please!
@spike, it's doubling every 3-4 days pretty much everywhere.
click on a country, scroll down to a graph, hover over the dots for the dates, move left or right 3 days and do the math yourself.
that's why it's important to slow this thing down. Even moving from 3 days to 4 days between doubles is going to save lives.
Hammer, meet nail. The single, most presceint account of what is currently taking place AND what is in store for those who can't shake their normalcy bias, not to mention the rest of us. Thank You, may God be with us.
Nick, where I live, there are no confirmed cases and our grocery store is actually pretty normal. However, over the mountain in Cumberland County it's a mad house. Shelves empty, even the gun store is so busy, they don't even answer their phone. People going into panic mode. I took off work this week but I think I won't work next week as well. We have not even seen anything yet. I don't know how our economy will survive this since this is just starting. I have a large family and already had vital supplies on hand by end of January. I saw what China was trying not to let the world see and I secured what I needed to keep my family safe. I had to drag my wife along kicking and screaming but I told her, If I am wrong and we don't need this stuff, we will use it in time. If I am right, you will thank me. So let me do what my gut tells me to do or divorce me and leave. She be thanking me now.
Aesop, Thanks for your info. Don't wait too long to go into defense on this. People who know and love their work tend to stay in position too long trying to do that 'one more thing before I go.' Regarding people I know saying, It's just the flu, I ask the when was the last time somebody was welded into an apartment. Sometimes I get the 'deer n the headlights look'.
Prepping for the zombie apocalypse was a lot more fun than living in it.
@spike, our Houston numbers are suspiciously low. I'm hearing from EMT/Fire that there are a bunch more cases unannounced (unconfirmed). I'm in good shape, I've been doing this for a while, and ramped up dramatically in the last couple of months. I still don't feel like it will be enough.
But, we've got nowhere better to go. We're on the edge of the city, but still close if there are relief efforts. I've read all the classics, and Aesop, Ferfal, and Selco. Eventually the FSA will start flexing and posturing. There have already been crimes by people wearing surgical masks. Texas usually doesn't tolerate much nonsense, and TEXANS don't individually, but there will be fires and blood here too, as well as everywhere else. We are not chinese to be welded into our homes. And our inner cities are not chinese inner cities, to blandly go about their lives and starve while some others don't.
Stay busy, and stay safe.
Yep, totally just the flu bro....
Just a bad flu. Totally.
"2,629 medics are infected with coronavirus in Italy: Country will extend lockdown into April as figures show doctors and nurses make up 8.3% of cases following highest daily death rate yet
A health foundation released the figures last night and warned that protection for doctors were 'inadequate'
Nearly 0.3 per cent of Italy's health workers have been infected, taking them out of service at time of need "
--that's almost africa levels and think about that trend extending...
--take care of yourselves
This is both good and bad news, depending on your prior assumptions. If you thought the military could shit out a dozen fully equipped hospitals and save the day, it's bad. If you understand what is actually available, you now have something to refer your friends too.
At the very bottom of the article, remember the inverted pyramid style?
"Washington state starts building a makeshift hospital for coronavirus patients on a soccer field as cities across the US put up tents and consider using hotels and student dorms to treat the infected"
"The Pentagon has also started playing a role in responding to the coronavirus outbreak in the United States as officials announced that two Navy hospital ships and two Army field hospitals were preparing to deploy to help overburdened regions."
The ships will take non-COVID-19 patients, easing the trauma treatment load on civilian hospitals.
He said staffing decisions will be based on what local leaders need and will mainly involve active-duty military personnel.
The Army, meanwhile, is preparing to deploy two field hospitals, according to Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy.
One defense official said the two field hospitals will go to New York City and Seattle, two cities with the greatest need.
The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details not yet made public.
Friedrichs said Army field hospitals will be able to provide about 1,000 beds.
He said they have not put reserve medical units on alert because of concerns about taking those people out of the civilian jobs in the health care industry.
--that last line is critical. Most of the people in reserve medical specialties are WORKING already in civilian medical capacities. THEY AREN'T EXTRA, and will probably face the same attrition rate and already be sick, even if they are called up.
"no one is coming to save you."
Yeah, when I saw the authorities welding people into their apartment I was thinking this must be really serious, how horrible and I guess you will be dead before you run out of food or water or dead because you ran out of food or water. Meanwhile, did you see the video of soldiers in Bio Suits with Ak's strapped to their backs rounding people up and hauling them away. In the background you could hear lots of gunfire. I guess those who ran were shot, or they were just shooting them in place. I guess you did not die of the virus if the soldiers shot you first.
Then there was this thirty second video of someone driving down one block and you can count twelve body bags in that short thirty second video. I guess when someone died in their place, they bagged them and put them outside for the body collectors. That is what is coming here. Going to be terrible.
Funny you should say that. I watched a doorknob-licking Obamabot turn left into a roundabout just yesterday. First time I've ever seen that and I've been on this planet for over five decades. I've always looked both ways, too, but really thought/hoped that I'd never share the road with anyone that mind-bogglingly brain dead. The End Times Are Nigh.
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