Monday, March 2, 2020


So apparently this week (not while I was there), two patients checked into the ER as possible Kung Flu victims.
Here's a snapshot of what happened next:

Are they positive for Kung Flu?
We don't know. Test results pending.
How many friends and family might they have exposed?
We don't know.
Who exposed them?
We don't know.
How long ago were they exposed?
We don't know.
How many staff and patients were exposed?
We don't know.
How many staff were in appropriate isolation PPE when they arrived?
How many wore proper PPE while they were assessed, treated initially, and prior to admission?
Probably nowhere near all of them.
How many of those exposed or possibly exposed are being tracked down, and placed into exposure surveillance, mandatory, voluntary, or anyfuckingkind whatsoever?
How many are in quarantine isolation?

The patients are in isolation while test results are pending, and the staff in-hospital are dealing with them appropriately.

But  no one is taking this seriously, nor did they before Thing 1 and Thing 2 showed up last week.

You'll know TPTB are taking this seriously when they start sending out dedicated EMS rigs to deal with pickups, already wearing Ebola-style hazmat gear.
And when hospitals have separate triage and assessment areas, let alone treatment areas, for potential Kung Flu cases.
We have none of that.
No one does.

There are already two healthcare workers in NorCal testing positive for Kung Flu.
From whom?
We don't know.
From how long ago?
We don't know.
How many other people were exposed going back how long?
We don't know.

This is a shit show.
It's going to get shittier.

And this is not "just like the flu".

But it is just like 5000 other ERs across America.

Let's ask Dallas Health Presbyterian how that worked out with Ebola.

And FYI: Two weeks ago, the entire hospital staff had to be re-fit tested for N95 masks (after we had already done so once) because exactly as noted in this post at WRSA, all the N95 masks in the entire hospital grew legs and walked out the door.

They re-supplied with another model two weeks ago, just before they disappeared nationwide, and N95s are now doled out and kept in full lockdown until needed.


Anonymous said...

Game on!

nick flandrey said...

Isn't that the second one they let go and then had to go get again?

State Dept - "I put 14 infected people on airplanes to bring them back home"...

CDC- "Hold my beer.."

--take a look at mortality in Italy. NOT 3%. 33% among those identified and treated inpatient... similar numbers in Iran? China's response makes more sense if that is a real rate.

--goat herders gonna be short on the ground in a few months --

And FL went from "none" to "two" overnight...


nick flandrey said...

Some more bad news out of Italy, and some detail about the 33% rate....

In Lombardy, the northern Italian region at the center of the country's outbreak, 1 in 10 of confirmed coronavirus cases involve medical personnel, according to Paola Stringa, a press officer for the Lombardy regional government.
The welfare assessor in charge of regional health care in Lombardy, Giulio Gallera, told reporters on Saturday that the region is evaluating whether to dedicate an entire hospital to coronavirus patients.
"We have given the instruction to hospital to swab all the patients that come in with respiratory diseases symptoms. It's important to preserve the well-being of medical personnel, which today represents the 10% of the infected," Gallera said.
Italy has put several cities and towns in the country's north on lockdown, banning people from entering or leaving affected areas, suspending public events and closing attractions, such as museums, to the public, according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control. The measure effectively put an estimated 100,000 people under quarantine."

and from

"573 new cases and 12 new deaths in Italy, for a total of 1,701 cases. Among the 1,577 active cases, 779 (49%) are hospitalized, 140 of which (representing 9% of active cases) are in intensive care. Among the 124 closed cases, 83 (67%) have recovered, 41 (33%) have died. The number of deaths reported in the press conference [source] [source] was later rectified from 34 to 41 (31 in Lombardy, 8 in Emilia Romagna, and 2 in Veneto), when Lombardy's councilor corrected the initial report of 24 deaths to 31 deaths for Lombardy. [source] [source] The total number of cases has been adjusted as well, to reflect this correction."

--33% in closed cases.


Wendy (KekistanTrans) said...

Most common response of people I get: "The regular flu kills thousands more people every year than this has killed." My response: "So how many people that you know that died from the flu last year?"
There is a lot of difference between three old people dying in a nursing home vs a bunch of co-workers out with the flu and then you hear that three of them are not coming back because they died.
This won't be real to most people until 1. people they know personally and in the same age range and state of health they are in are dying from this 2. when store shelves go empty and don't get restocked and banks and businesses close down for an extended holiday. Then the meme on WRSA of South Koreans lining up for face masks vs Americans urban jungle rats rioting will come into play.

hjggg said...

And what about your daily mail? Nobody seems to have a real handle of how long the virus can survive on paper/packages/plastic tape and so on.

One package handler at USPS Seattle found to be infected.

Anonymous said...

I hope you have some vacation time stored up Aesop.
Might be a good time for that trip to the wilderness.

Anonymous said...

The chinese just performed a double lung transplant on a coronavirus patient. So, 1. not the average flu?, and 2. no word of which political prisoner supplied the lungs.
And if this wanders into my ER, we're no better off than we were a couple years ago with Ebola. Adminstration is more interested in looking like the Mariott than a hospital. God forbid somebody should feel triggered bc we screen them before they walk in.
Incidentally, narcotics seem to be getting short on the ground. We're overdose central, and now we seem to be Im-going-into-withdrawal central. I always wondered how corn country ended up ground zero for the narcotics problem, now I'm wondering if they were right about the stuff coming from China via Mexico.

robins111 said...

They sent a team in HazMat suits to disinfect a public school in Toronto Canada. Naturally there's nothing to worry about,

Anonymous said...

SitRep S.E.Ky.1200 hrs....Local Walmart doing brisk business since many here are on the dole and its the beginning of the month.Many have full carts to last the month so hard to tell if its panic buying.No dust particle or respirator masks of any type.OTC meds are being depleted,many empty slots and no restocking seen.(Aspirin,Acetaminophen etc.and in childrens liquid also)I saw no one with a mask but did see an elderly man and his grown son buy 2 lg.IsoAlcohols and a lg.HydroPeroxide and we just looked at each other knowingly.Went home and unloaded,my son went immediately to Lowes and was able to buy the last 2(of any kind)RZ masks w/replaceable filters for $35 ea.The manager told him they had all masks on backorder twice and he better buy them now and didn't expect to get anything.

Anonymous said...

There are two groups of people.

1. It's just the flu bro


2. This is it

I'm in group 2 pulling my hair out at group 1

If this *is* just the flu bro, then explain CHINA'S response? Why is China welding people shut in their homes if "it's just the flu, bro"?

Anonymous said...

Those 33% figures look about right if you go back and look at the numbers accidentally shown by TPTB in China back in late Jan. That is about the figure I came up with when doing the math with the 'oops, we let the curtain drop' numbers. That were immediately retracted. My guess would be someone 'accidentally' let them slip b/c they had a conscience. At the time THAT math made their actions look a lot more sensible. How I pray these numbers can be chalked up to old, infirm, or both.

However, every swinging Richard telling me on the tube this weekend 'Its low risk, you have nothing to worry about, TOP MEN are on the job!' made me think just the opposite.

The wife is now thankful I occasionally wear a tin foil hat.

No *confirmed* cases hereabouts. Given what surrounds us its here.. just not ID'd yet.

JC said...

I'm 60 years old. Did 30+ years as a FF/PM I have NEVER seen this kind of response to the "flu"

At one point China had 700,000,000 people under some form of lock down. From quarantine to travel restrictions.

But yeah. it's just like the flu. Go with that.

Termite said...

Might be a good idea to NOT order Ebay/Amazon stuff shipped from China for the foreseeable future. Or if you do, wear nitril gloves while opening outside, and let the items sit in bright sunlight for a few hrs.

Oh, and regarding N95 face masks, don't just think medical supply: Remember that a lot of industrial fume and dust particulate 1/2 masks are rated above N95 level, some will even handle low levels of H2S.

Just sayin'.......

Charles in VA said...

@ Aesop,


You GOT to love the Life. The uncertainty of it all. Dude. Just embrace it. God's Judgment IS coming. Is this it? Probably not...but maybe it is. Do I care? Not one whit.

If you believe in Fate, or The 3 Fates, the proverb is..." Go and hide in a hole if you like. You won't live one minute longer. The All Father wrote the scroll of your life long before you were born."

My advice is to be a Viking spirit. Live each day as it were your last. Do not fear Death. Be ALL you can be today. Do what is Right in the sight of God and let the chips fall where they may.

As I see it, that's the safe bet.

Die if you must, but do not do evil to survive. We ALL owe God one death. To do evil to survive IS to die the 2nd death and be cast into the lake of fire.

Let each man search his heart and do what is Right.

Anonymous said...

just heard on in north central B.C. gov.says NO NEED TO PANIC BUY, all is well just buy normally whatever the hell normal is, 3-4 days worth of stuff in case you get sick should be good. just damn glad i've been panicking last 10 years sure beat the final rush. so far up here in the great white north nothing in short supply YET. DAN

gsf1200 said...

The problem is, I've heard it all before. Sars, Mers, swine flu, bird flu, zika, spanish flu, ebola, and probably more that I forgot about. It sounds like the boy that cried "Wolf!" But is it really the wolf this time?

Anonymous said...

Report out of Washington State today was 14 confirmed cases of Kung Flu with 6 dead already. Small numbers but the average is running higher than the 33% mentioned above so far. Made a Costco run a couple days ago and they were out of TP, isopropyl alcohol, hand sanitizer, and disinfecting wipes, went back this evening and none of those items were back in stock. Don’t ever recall a flu season causing a shortage of these items, seems a lot of folks don’t think it’s “just the flu bro”. Was able to complete the shopping list at the local supermarket but no telling how deep their stock supply is. If you need to get a few more preps probably should get it done like ASAP.

K9 Operator

nick flandrey said...

@termite, industrial suppliers all dried up last week. You can look for yourself at Uline and Grainger. Actually, uline is allowing "existing customer reorders" only and limits on quantity but has some at original prices. Many styles are sold out though.


btw, there are still masks available on ebay. They just cost more. Try other brands than 3m as a search.

nick flandrey said...

I'll add that the new cases in NYC and AUS from people that were in Iran, and the cases spreading out from Italy suggest that this thing is VERY transmissible.


Anonymous said...

The authorities closed down the local high school here in Western WA today to be disinfected after a "possible" case was found among the student body. Testing the rest of the students and staff for possible infection.

Times they are getting interesting. Even more so than usual.

Light Dragoon

John Wilder said...

Back when I was reading to kids every night, one favorite was the Cat in the Hat Comes Back. In it, that pesky Cat starts getting the color pink absolutely everywhere. The more they tried to clean it, the farther it got away. Everything it touched, turned pink.

Dunno why Corona reminds me of that . . . whatever could it be?

George True said...

Went to two different Costco stores in Phoenix late today to pick up a few remaining items on my list. Toilet paper all gone. All bulk rice gone. Canned chicken gone. Canned vegetables, beans, chili, Spam, almost all gone.

And this is with ZERO reported Covid19 cases here so far. The window of opportunity to acquire the basics is rapidly closing.

FredLewers said...

I'm waiting for someone with more technical skills than me to post that clip from The Hunt For Red October. Seriously, TSMHHTF already... It just ain't splattered this far yet. Maybe...

Anonymous said...

Hold on loosely and don't let go brothers cause most of us didn't start preparing for this when the CDC made it's call. Sane and thinking folks knew something like this could happen and prepared as the easy years passed. Preparedness in general covers a lot of different situations. I recall the saying that "Life is hard, it's a lot harder when you're stupid". Not throwing stones but after the Ebola deal how could you not be prepared at least marginally?

Anonymous said...

"Sane and thinking folks knew something like this could happen and prepared as the easy years passed."

And slackers that were nonetheless paying attention in some of the "new" affected areas saw something was very wrong a month ago. Its arrival on the coast was VERY obvious; many people knew households or workplaces catching odd cases of pneumonia. We just finished a multi-week frenzy of getting ready.

Look at the genome analysis talk of the WA strains - it's most likely been in the US on a slow burn since before the Chinese even went public. Most of the fatalities of the last few days have been very old patients in close quarters - people who don't really get out, who needed it brought to them. By the speculated timeline, it took about 3 weeks, finally reaching them in early-mid February.

People were getting sick. Not dying in any kind of alarming numbers, just very sick. China announces their outbreak. Confirmed imported cases arrive quickly - just one or two. But CDC very suspiciously does not for the most part test any contacts, only observes them. None of the indigenous sick cases are tested - the protocols exclude them entirely. No aggressive travel restrictions.

Business as normal, no need to panic - but at the same time, late Jan to mid February, they start moving on MAJOR stuff. Prefab isolation housing - some of which is just now announced - starts being moved. You sorta can't hide that; we gawked at them traveling down the freeway on trailers, and now - "It's getting bad! Look, we did a thing! Look how fast we acted". Tents in hospital lots for overflow "flu" patients. "Seriously guys, you don't need masks, just stop", while trying to nail down stockpiles.

You don't have an outbreak if you're not testing anyone to prove it, and you can pretty much get away with it until you get half a dozen fatalities in a nursing home.

Someone knew what was up, and that it was too late to stop, and what we are seeing is a plan to slow roll the news a few states at a time to the public. That's nice and all, but the extreme lack of preparedness and training for this means things will get out of hand.

Maybe they'll keep a lid on that. Maybe they won't. Some of these places are not in any way ready for this.

Anonymous said...

Aesop, thank you very much for all the info and the entertainment.

I've been watching the panic start where I am. Wally was hit hard today. Lots of eggs, water, TP, and pretty much all the meds went out the door. Fascinating to see the cold aisle denuded and shelves so empty, I couldn't even tell what they previously held.

Sam's Club was also hit this weekend. Lots of water and TP sold, as well as rice and sugar, from what I could see.

Anonymous said...

Among the 124 closed cases, 83 (67%) have recovered, 41 (33%) have died.

This is similar to the reported numbers from China. Yesterday was the first day that the recovered cases was greater than 50% of the total cases (45,000 Recovered/ 89,000 total cases. About a week ago, the number of recovered cases in China was finally larger than the number of dead, (I think it was about 2,700 of each). The really sick die early, but if they don't die, they have several weeks of recovery ahead of them.

I don't think it the fatality rate is anywhere near 33%, but if (almost) everyone gets COVID-2019, 3% of 300,000.000 is 9,000,000 in the US alone. Nine Million bodies. Hopefully it is closer to 0.5%, and "only" one and a half million dead bodies.

Robin Datta said...

If asymptomatic folks can spatter it for the better part of a couple of weeks, how does one decide which asymptomatic folks to test (and re-test) and where does one rustle up the resources to test gargantuan numbers? In any case, the horse departs displaying its full moon as they close the barn door.

OvergrownHobbit said...

The problem is, I've heard it all before. Sars, Mers, swine flu, bird flu, zika, spanish flu, ebola, and probably more that I forgot about. It sounds like the boy that cried "Wolf!" But is it really the wolf this time?

That's what killed a bunch of folks when Katrina hit.

The establishment press really is the enemy of the people. Spot on, Mr. Trump.

Anonymous said...

The Governor of GA had a press conference at 10:30pm tonight announcing 2 cases in Fulton County, GA. The initial "patient zero" had recently returned from Italy and infected a loved one. The Public Health Commissioner then got on and did the whole "low-risk, wash your hands" bit and was asked about what they were doing to keep track of people on her flight, to which she replied, "we aren't tracking because the patient was asymptomatic at time of travel." These people have no clue what they're dealing with and it's going to take lots of bodies before they even remotely get a clue. Hold on to your hats, gents. This is going to get ugly.

Nahanni said...

The screams of people welded into their own homes in Wuhan.

McChuck said...

How long does it take to create, get approved, and produce a test for a new virus?
Kung Flu only appeared in December...

Nahanni said...

Roll the dice and find out.

Nahanni said...

This one?

chewbacca said...

Honestly, those don't sound like terrified screams.

chewbacca said...

They didn't count the bodies in those sealed apartments.

chewbacca said...

Exactly right.

chewbacca said...

Makes you wonder, eh? And most sheeple will quietly nod their heads.

Anonymous said...

nick flandrey said...

Second and third order effects--

we should see an increase in violent crime, pharmacy robberies, and home invasions as junkies run out of chinese fentanyl laced narcotics. They are gonna be desperate for a fix and some of them will figure out that old people often have a crapton of drugs in the house.


Virginia Granny said...

Dear Aesop,

What happened to the medical personnel who were possibly exposed? Have the tests come back? Positive? No? Are you still going to work there? What do your buds on the front line have to say about all this?

We all care about you. Plz keep us informed re your own welfare.

Anonymous said...

@nick flandrey 8:19 AM
"we should see an increase in violent crime, pharmacy robberies, and home invasions as junkies run out of chinese fentanyl laced narcotics."

This problem may self correct to a great degree. Large numbers of these junkies overdose, some right in the "harm reduction" injection sites, and are brought back by immediate medical care and often more sustained care at a hospital. That will quickly end. The naltrexone kits will run out. No one will be coming to save them. So sorry. So long.

Harsh but we've enabled this kind of thing for far too long and we're feasting on the consequences. It's turned into a small industry in my city. Free government money and funding will do that.

Once people start losing family members, friends and coworkers to this virus sympathy for the addicts will disappear very quickly. It's been a long time coming.

Anonymous said...

"We all care about you. Plz keep us informed re your own welfare.


horsewithnonick said...

We need some VOOOOM!

Aesop said...

Re: My welfare

1) Ask me in 28 days.
2) I only found out about this after it happened, and I had no direct role in the shitshow that was.
3) Which leaves me feeling like the guy standing after the whole building collapses around him and he hasn't got a scratch.
4) Because I'm one of the more experienced nurses, they usually give me the worst patients, making me a default shit magnet.
5) But I already had my ration, so I didn't have room for the possible cases.
6) At last report, we're waiting for test results to come back, and/or will be keeping the patients here for 14 days for observation.
7) I repeat, ask me in 28 days.

Robin Datta said...

Let's hope that Aesop is resistant: a very brief and mild URI - or even asymptomatic - if positive.

Anonymous said...

I don't give a rats ass about you but I wouldn't wish this on you either. So get well soon or post prior to ARDS please. Thank you in advance.

The Gray Man said...

We also had a “possible” case show up in Florida here, and it went about like we expected. Luckily I was off work too, because I wouldn’t have been able to stay quiet about stupid our DON is.