Thursday, March 5, 2020

Kung Flu Update. Etc.



Peter, over at Bayou Renaissance Man, has put up a post of links. Of the 14+ links he included, we are 3 of them, and Mosby is 1. Go on over there for the other 10 you haven't seen from either of us. RTWT.

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Some people have expressed the hope/belief/fond wish/delusional fairytale expectation that, like many outbreaks, this one will wane once Spring is sprung, and the sun comes out. Look at the John Hopkins map in Peter's post header, and mentally pencil in the equator in that picture.

To wit: Australia (Oz, affectionately) is in late summer. It isn't helping their outbreak a bit. Singapore is equatorial. It hasn't mattered there either.

YMMV, but were I you, I would abandon all hope of weather saving you, and rejoice if it does, which seems entirely unlikely.
Period.

Buckle in for the long haul: this is going to go on a world tour, and may last for a year or more, until it burns through everyone, or they develop a vaccine that's both effective, and can be produced in sufficient quantities.

For perhaps 97% of you, it'll be a minor inconvenience.
For the rest, time to set your affairs in order.


For those playing at home, the correct answer was "What is
'Get the f**k off the subway, and stay your @$$ home...' "

























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Responses to my Local Color post indicate that response is similar elsewhere. People are vaguely uneasy, and in some paces approaching full-blown panic, but unlike a hurricane or other problem, haven't yet sussed out that this isn't coming and going, it's coming and staying (see above), and it'll be, or is, everywhere.

At that point, in our humble editorial opinion, when that penny drops, you will begin to see some people lose their collective sh*t. I doubt my readers need advice about stocking their ammo larder for that day, but for those that do, get thee hence, now. And load up.



















People are stupid, and some people only understand reason when both barrels of it are pointing them in the face, wrapped around a load of 00Buck. Be prepared to reason with some people, whether by explaining things to them ever so gently, or buy cutting to the chase, and pulling the triggers on both barrels, as appropriate.

And as Ol' Remus has told you oh so many times,
 
Avoid crowds.
 
The IQ of a mob is the standard IQ, divided by the number of persons present. IOW, a mob of 100 has an IQ of 1. Dress appropriately for that storm, and do try to be elsewhere if one breaks out.

We will post more on this specifically anon.

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Part of the penny dropping will be people living paycheck to paycheck, or hand to mouth, having the dawning epiphany that work, and income, has now ceased for them for some unknown period of time.

"Today, on the DUH! Channel: surprising new second- and third-order effects of a pandemic that you were too stupid to realize until they swam up and bit you in the ass..."

















And it will do so, and they will thereupon freak out. This is because, as we noted in the above point, people are stupid. Even stupider in large groups, which explains most politics in general, btw.

IF (yuuuuuge if) TPTB have any wits, they will declare a force majeure, and halt all payments across the board, for rent, lease, etc., and suspend them for the duration.
Landlords and banks can suck it in the interim, and all your contracts (car payments, credit card balances, etc.) would/should be extended without penalty XX days or months, as necessary. You can pay them off later, when the economy re-starts, as originally planned.

That would be simple, relatively painless, and the most sensible option.

Government being government, it's therefore also the last thing I expect.

You should have a cash float (in your hand, or where you can lay your hands on it without assistance {mayonnaise jar in the flower garden, I'm looking at you}, not locked in a safe deposit box at a bank that may close its doors just when you need it not to) sufficient for between 3 and 12 months of all personal expenses. ALL. Don't have that? (I've been there, and it provided impetus to correct that deficiency, believe me.) Sux to be you, doesn't it? Work on it now, as possible. You should have that anyways, and since long before now. Get cracking.

BTW, part of an actual lockdown quarantine is that if you're infected, or possibly so, you must stay in your home, by order of the Great And Powerful Oz, until further notice.

Which means the only reason the local constables will be coming to your door is not to evict you, plague-ridden, into the street, but to tell you (and your landlord/lessor), to fuck right off, lock you in, and post notice to one and all to leave you be, because you've got much bigger fish to fry at the moment. I can't help you about your food costs or car payment, but the odds of you being tossed out, if you point out you've been coughing up a lung and feel like shit, is right around 0%. It's not like new tenants are going to be looking for your plague-infected digs as their new domicile amidst a pandemic. Just saying.

So relax about the little shit.
Survive WuFlu, and catch up the other payments when happier days dawn on us all.

Take this as a hint to mostly live within your means, and become a believer. I can understand a house and/or a car payment. But credit card debt is infantile, in 90% of all cases. Student loans too, unless you were a STEM major or going into the medical arts, where you'll earn it all back in a few years. Stop being a financial baby.
This is your wake-up call.

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Avoiding crowds:



















If you don't have dead tree editions of 100 Deadly Skills by retired SEAL and former NSA spook Clint Emerson, and his companion book, 100 Deadly Skills: Survival Edition, you're simply wrong. Unf**k yourself.

Both of them are chock-a-block full of handy tips from someone who's BTDT and got the t-shirts, from any number of Turd World sh*tholes. All of which advice works just fine in your local area. They are two of the most useful books I've gotten hands on in the last decade.

We therefore advise you to consult the Survival Edition for
No. 082: Escape Social Unrest and Riots.

Risk the crowd to get a copy at Barnes and Noble, or order it online from Amazon.

TL;DR?

Understand the crowd.
Identify points of danger.
Avoid points of danger.
Avoid looters.
Avoid law enforcement.
Get inside.
Get to high ground.
Stay on the perimeter of the event.
Move perpendicular to the flow.
Put buildings between you and the mob.

21 comments:

vigilantcitizen said...

I.E.: Staying at home. Avoiding crowds.

Just read a 4 chan thread about patient zero in Italy. A paki chinese food delivery person who tested positive, was put on self quarantine, but said "fuck that" because "I had to work" and went about shedding viruses all over town with zero fucks given about his fellow man.

I was more shocked at several commenters who said they would do the same.

That's not counting the sick fucks that will knowingly go spread corona chan as a big fuck you because "Muh Bernie" "Muh Racism" or "Muh Infidel".

Right now as we speak corona chan is being spread everywhere. Everywhere. I am now considering everything and everybody outside my door to be hot.







vigilantcitizen said...

Here is the 4chan thread mentioned earlier:

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/246705831

carolinaTURTLE said...

...so, has covid-19 surpassed the standard flu in regards to lethality? (I might be wrong, but that is my impression at this point) so far, it is not killing like Ebola did/can/might still do, right? But as i said in my blabbering comment, the current media frenzy seems like a practice run for when Ebola-covid-19 emerges to *adjust* world population???

Anonymous said...

@carolinaTURTLE: Kung Flu, WuFlu, Corona Chan.. whatever you call it has been known to have mortality greater than that of the regular season flu since at least mid-Jan. And that is using Chicom figures that are likely as useful as tits on a boar hog. My guess is likely higher than realized yet and appears most definitely higher for certain populations. Look at the rate for the nursing home in WA. Around 30% at last check and the music is still playing. So, if you are old (as in geriatric) or have underlying problems your risk appears to be much greater than for regular folk.

Add in 1) no vaccine and 2) asymptomatic transmission and redo the math.

One of the reasons KF is out of control is that is does not kill like Ebola. As I understand it not only is Ebola only transmissible after showing symptoms but it also kills so quickly at/after that point or at least knocks one down so hard that it is rather difficult to transmit. As I recall Ebola is also droplet, not airborne transmission.

I really doubt KF is to 'adjust population'. Looks more like humans were fucking around with shit they should not have been and in a society that lies as easily as breathing on top of it. Given all the .gov organizations playing around with microbes it was really only a matter of time until something like this happened. All it takes is for ONE microbe/virus to escape BL4. Given people work in those places a mistake was bound to happen eventually. Unless you believe that this came from a food market bat. Possible.. but for me that does not pass the smell test.

Aesop said...

Pay attention, please:

KUNG FLU HAS ***ALWAYS*** SURPASSED STANDARD FLU IN TERMS OF LETHALITY.
THE LETHALITY OF THE ANNUAL FLU IS 0.1%.
THE LETHALITY OF KUNG FLU (COVID-19) IS BETWEEN 2-4%, (3% AVG.)
SO IT HAS ***ALWAYS*** BEEN THIRTY TIMES MORE LETHAL THAN THE FLU.
IT SIMPLY HASN'T BEEN HERE LONG ENOUGH TO RACK UP A BODY COUNT THIRTY TIMES AS LARGE.
***YET!!!***


I hope that wasn't too subtle, and clears up any remaining confusion. :)

In six months, when it maybe has done so IRL, even the farking morons at ABCNNBCBS will be able to figure this shit out. Probably.

Anonymous said...

"...even the farking morons at ABCNNBCBS will be able to figure this shit out. Probably."

Aesop, you are ever the optimist!

Anonymous said...

Aesop, stop with the clue bat already! :) Somebody is gonna loose an eye.

Your Omaha report for the day.

- My local WF banker did not want to convert me to cash, didn’t think this is a big deal, but I gave him the sell order.

- Dr. Gold of UNMC is calling local biz leaders, we got following from wife of one: Hey ,Dr Gold from UNMC called xxx this morning to update him on 🦠told him there will be more cases announced due to test kits that are new and work better and faster . But doesn’t mean an actual outbreak”. Cannot argue with facts like that! Just facepalm and mutter WTF.

- Last minute order of 1,800 servings of 25year shelf stable food is in transit from Amazon. Went long on food.

- Retail: NSTR, didn’t go near retail.

Still reading all I can find, it is useful when someone tells me, “oh two strains, not dangerous”. Pointing out the places the WuFlu doctors worked, weird ferret ACE2 experiments, virus design and bans.

KGH

nick flandrey said...

This video is worth watching.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9cmAahzVEc

“Planning does not equal preparation.”

Author John M. Barry’s PrepTalk showcases lessons learned from both the 1918 and 2009 influenza pandemics. He provides guidance on what emergency managers can do to work with public health and elected officials to implement measures that can save lives and, as importantly, avoid ineffective measures that can lose community trust.

19 minutes, well presented, and you should learn at least two new things.

nick

Anonymous said...

Do you think that the government will try the suspension of payments route?
I can see some assholes suing, and the Hawaiian judge will overrule the government, because f--k Trump.

Maybe the alternative would be a couple months of cash payments, just to keep people happy with money and with hope?
How about a thousand dollars a month for several months. Assume three months and the money goes to every one of the 330 milllion citizens, that is about a TRILLION, just like Obama's big stimulus.

I keep hoping we are overreacting, and then actual facts slap us in the face.

Aesop said...

I think if "the Hawaiian judge" (or any other one) did that, they'd be in federal custody of US Marshalls, the FBI, or local MPs, in about an hour.
Followed by the declaration of martial law in that state, and the naming of a military governor.

Two states, tops, and that shit ceases nationwide in about a minute.
The judge(s) would be held incommunicado in perpetuity, and transferred to GITMO, same day. The same thing will happen to over-yappy congressweasels or senators, and 530 other ones will take the hint, and STFU.

I am heart-attack serious about that.

YMMV

A Texan said...

@Aesop: I just love the morons afflicted with Normalcy Bias who loudly proclaim, “Coronavirus has only killed 6/8/11/whatever number of people here, and the flu has killed 20,000. Stop panicking about CV, you are an alarmist.” I would remind them that the post-WW1 Spanish Flu killed 50 million - 100 million people...and at one point had killed “only 6/8/11/whatever number of people.” Using a static picture of the (known) effects of a highly mobile and contagious disease to make a conclusion about its potential is as idiotic as Polish cavalrymen charging a column of Panzer Mk. 3s.

Charles in VA said...

@ Aesop,

I got a little extra money this month, so I'm going to take your advice on Clint Emerson's books.

If there's even one dirty trick I don't already know, it's going to be worth it to me. Even as a review, they will still be invaluable.

Thanks for sharing!

* Dick Marcinko's (founding father of SEAL Team Six)books were very enlightening and entertaining for me in the day.

Marina said...

@ 8:08 PM:
More stupidity. Such good math ! https://twitter.com/i/status/1235796674368475136

Duke Norfolk said...

Marina,

Yeah, that was hilarious. I mean I understand the risks of doing math in public, but that was a gimme. More fuel for the fire that's burning the MSM's credibility to the ground.

Marina said...

@ KGH 8:24 PM:
"- Last minute order of 1,800 servings of 25year shelf stable food is in transit from Amazon. Went long on food."
I'm in Canada and there's much less of this thinking of 25year food except in military circles but definitely none around me and being a woman there is even less lol.
Was your purchase a Mountain House or another brand ? Your 1800 servings is designed to last how long ? Thanks for your answer !

Marina said...

Just ordered the books. Thanks Aesop.

Lissa said...

Ditto: Just ordered the books. Thanks Aesop!

Anonymous said...

OK, Brother. I ordered the survival book, if only to send some shekels your way. I consider myself pretty well-trained but thought " there might be some good... "
Sh'yeah... This is THE GOOD STUFF!!!
Just breezing through it, I found value in every page.
Excuse me and my arrogance, I'm gonna order the first one NOW.
Boat Guy

Anonymous said...

Chas,
I'll violently disagree on "Demo Dick" and his books. He's a blowhard and a liar.
Boat Guy

Aesop said...

@Boat Guy,

Write this on your hand, lest ye forget :)

I never lie.

If I give a shout out for a book, it's because I think it rates it.
You can look the guy up, he's done a couple of interviews that are on YouTube, and he seems like a decent fellow, with a lot of stories he can't tell.

But what he wrote in the books was gold.

If he's looking for a co-author to help out with 100 Deadly Skills To Survive A Pandemic, send him a link to my blog.

Anonymous said...

Hey Brother, if I thought you ever lied, I'd only say it to you face.
Absolutely concur that Emerson's books are GOLD. I was commenting on another team guy and his writing.
I was guilty of arrogance (somewhat) by only buying the second book. I'll own that. My thought was that of necessity you were making a recommendation to the masses that didn't necessarily apply to me. As I've noted, I'm reasonably well-trained and -studied. I will never presume that I've nothing left to learn but did not think there would be as much value in this book to me personally as there is.
As for sending links to your blog, they've been going to family and friends for some years now with kick-the-lecturn emphasis on recent weeks.
Boat Guy