|Sorry, kids. No choice. Had to do it. Bummer for you.|
In case you missed this post Saturday, go RTWT at Borepatch's blog.
Re: Ms. Specht.
Some of her assumptions are okay, but many, many of them aren't just wrong, they're ridiculous.
In a nominal 300-bed hospital, fewer than 10-20 beds (on average) are suitable for Kung Flu isolation in a negative airflow room.
1) Kung Flu will never flood all hospital beds. TPTB cannot let it.
2) Kung Flu will soak up all available isolation rooms, and all possible ICU beds, body-slamming an always scarce resource.
3) For 80% of Kung Flu victims, they will be told to go home and self-quarantine, and treat the symptoms, and they'll be fine.
4) In fact, some 20% of the total number of victims may not have any notable symptoms.
5) The problem then, is the 20% at the other end of the bell curve.
15% will need hospitalization, and it won't be available. But not by the date specified; she's probably a month or more early.
6) The 5% of the little end will be the ones who die, soaking all ICU beds up, and all available ventilators, and then swamping mortuary services, crematoriums, and graveyards, and leading to a pretty good shot at mass burials and/or corpse bonfires.
7) Overall, we'll be turning Kung Fu patients away, in droves (because if we didn't, health care would totally collapse for everything, which would be asinine), and sending them to whatever slapdash FEMA-camp hellholes FedGov comes up with. Because we're not going to infect the staff, and all public spaces in the hospital, to waste resources on 1-3% of the population that's going to die anyways, and simultaneously dropping the ball on heart attacks, strokes, trauma, and other easily-treatable medical conditions for which we can save lives.
8) Masks are similarly important overall, but pointless in the short term, as are all other supplies, because eventually, TPTB will have a come-to-Jesus epiphany, and realize than anyone that gets Kung Flu needs to go - in all cases - to a Kung Flu treatment Center, not to the Friendly Local Big Medical Center, because if we see them there, they'll die anyways, and kill all healthcare for everyone else, which keeps most hospitals running around 90+% of capacity 24/7/365/forever even without Kung Flu.
That's why I've been telling people not to get the virus: because if you're in the sick-or-dying 20%, you're going to get shunted into FEMA-ghetto care, far below typical first-world standards of care, because it's all there can be, and all there will be.
Health care in this country is not going to stand on the railroad tracks and dare the onrushing express train to squash it. American health care is not going to fling itself on the pandemic live grenade in a futile bid to try and save everyone.
It's going to necessarily throw Kung Flu victims, en masse, under the bus. It's Lifeboat Ethics 101: when you can't save everyone, you save the mostest with what you can, and let the sea of disease take the rest.
When faced with losing everyone, or letting the sickest victims of Kung Flu die, the adage will be the old Russian saying:"toughski shitskiy, Comrade."
Something Ms. Specht never even considered, but which makes exquisitely logical sense, with virtually irrefutable logic.
Trying it the other way is why Italy's medical system is in freefall meltdown nationwide, as detailed in the last couple of posts here.
We won't do that, because we dare not.
Bigger problem: what happens to our system in the in-between times from when Chinese-supplied Rx meds and antibiotics stop arriving here, and before alternative and new lines of supply pick up the slack? That could be a far bigger problem, and crush regular healthcare anyways, let alone the Kung Flu victims needing antibiotics we won't have any more of, because they're all made either in China, or with Chinese chemical precursors. So American healthcare may not die in May, but in August, from lack of basic treatment supplies and drugs. And then, it's a bad day for Grandma and Gramps either way.
Think about this long and hard. Then try to tell me why I've got it wrong, and we'll kill everyone and destroy all healthcare for everything to try and save some few people with Kung Flu, because that approach makes more sense, in Comments.