Friday, March 20, 2020

A New Hope?

Not a vaccine, but a treatment. We’re somewhere between a year and forever from a vaccine.

Rumbles of an effective treatment from medicine available off-the-shelf:
PDF. Caveat: From ChiComia.
PDF: ChiComia again
PDF: Corroboration from France

I hope that pans out as true empirically. Chloroquine has been around for ages. (1934, in fact).

I’m also hoping the main supplier for it doesn’t turn out to be China, and it works as effectively as some posts have reported. Finding out we have the answer sitting on the shelf would be a literal godsend. And turn this from a probable disaster to a burp in about a week. If  it’s true.

Anyone who’s panicking is the result of utter stupidity.

Mortality from this has always been a secondary concern (except to the lottery losers themselves.) It’s the hospitalization rate that’s critical. My concerns have been the effects of anything over a million hospital cases (which swamps the healthcare boat), and the follow-on effects from exactly the official responses taken to curb the pandemic, which, contrary to the actual chicken littles and head-in-the-sand ostriches, were exactly what I did warn about, and suggest people prepare for.

Trump hasn’t been perfect in this – no one ever is – but his tone and demeanor have been, and his instincts are far better than most. Where he’s stumbled is mostly attributable to some of the idiots in the admin who should have been shown to the door three years ago, but are still hanging around. Most of the idiots at CDC et al are right where we left them in 2014, just as clueless now as then, and six years older and stodgier. The FDA is another fartsack of incompetence, and them squawking over EOs setting aside off-label use of chloroquine is proof that most of them need to be retired in haste. It either works, or it doesn’t, but starting a five year testing process isn’t the way to go amidst a world-wide pandemic.

If we try it, and it works, we’re done. If it fails, we’re no worse off than we are without it.

Anyone, at any federal agency, that blathers against that now should be given a choice of immediate reassignment to the McMurdo Sound Research Project, or retiring in an hour. That’s exactly the sort of thing at which Trump excels.

And I leave it to anyone's best instincts regarding the fact that China, specifically the Wuhan bioresearch laboratories, have published studies already with an allegedly efficacious cure for the strain of coronavirus that originated in...Wuhan.

From a medicine that's been around since FDR was president.

Regardless of that, if it pans out, it would be an answer to a lot of prayers.


IF this does turn out to work like gangbusters, THEN cue the Retard Posse to start caterwauling that "Aesop was WROOOOOOOOONG!!!!! It was all a total HOAX!" in 0.2 seconds. The ones, that is, that still haven't stopped yelling that 24/7 already, with cases worldwide, deaths rising, half this country on total lockdown, the economy in a shambles, and the stock market totally in the shitter.

I can make that prediction with 0% chance of being wrong.
Fucktards gonna fucktard.
Those fish in the barrel aren't going to shoot themselves.


Side note: It's been illuminating to read elsewhere in the blogosphere how we've been a troll, a panic-monger, stole your lunch money, and made fun of your mother, for telling you about this outbreak, or Ebola, or whatever other pet peeve(s) chapped their tender asses,  as I live in their heads rent-free. And how dare we know more than you, for any value of "you" they deem important. Generally, themselves. Doubly so that when asked for specifics, the accusers generally fart, shuffle their feet, slither away like ghosts, or just flat-out confirm they were talking out their asses all along. You go, girls. Howzat workin' out for ya?

I can link to any number of times right on these pages we told you not to panic over the present pandemic, or where we told you that deaths from Kung Flu weren't the biggest problem, or that the subsequent effects of a pandemic (second-order through N-th order) are always the bigger deal. I can even point out all the places we told you to prepare, not freak out.

But that's all assuming, against copious evidence to the contrary, that everyone with a keyboard is not a gibbering monkey with the English language comprehension skills one expects of such thoroughgoing retards. (If:Then propositions clearly kick their ass to the North Pole and back twice a day, by most accounts.)

That is because for a certain subset on the Internet, fucktards will always be fucktards.
And cannot help showing their asses, eventually, if not perpetually.

And anyone telling them something is going to upset their daily applecart jiggles their existence out of kilter, fucks with their comfortable normalcy bias, pisses them off, and kicks in their Dunning-Kruger skills with a vengeance. Reality slapping you in the back of the head is a bitch like that.

Some people just never tried having an actual public debate, or a difficult chess match, nor stepped into a sparring ring, or fenced a match, so they don't understand that I can tell you your argument is stupid, and prove the point, without therefore necessarily thinking that you must be too. Unless you leave me no other options, long after you should have tapped out. 

I've disagreed the hardest with some of the people I respect the most on the Internet, because they bring expertise in other areas that I truly respect, and they know how to make a point, or take one. But I won't pull punches in making a point, because truth isn't something you shy away from. Anyone, including your humble bloghost, can make a stupid argument. I've seen me do it. But stupid should hurt, and I step aside to no one in bringing that pain if the opportunity arises, even if your panties are binding in tender places as a result.

If that's too much, lurk and learn from others' mistakes, but don't cry because you lost. 

Learn it. Love it. Live it.

Thank heavens the terminally stupid are always a small fraction of visitors anywhere, including here, but never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups, or with loud mouths, and no self-awareness of their own shortcomings.

Stupidity is dynamite dangerous.
Envy is gasoline.
Butthurt added to the mix is generally the source of ignition.
In combination, they're a toxic stew, and the resultant blast warms our hearts.
Scars to those so afflicted are, to us, wholly irrelevant, and richly deserved.
Don't be a publicly ignorant jackhole with temper issues, and you'll get along in life just fine.
If not, well, suture self.

And maybe try the cream, instead of posting smack you can't back up from a dearth of anything worthwhile, just the over-abundant contents of your spleen, and the spackle from your diaper.


Anonymous said...

I hope this does work. Doctors can prescribe this as an off label use of an approved drug RIGHT NOW, IF,
They are willing to risk lawsuits from asshole heirs of patients they were trying to save, and
Their pharmacy actually has the anti-malarial available.
Make sure they supplement the patient with Zinc. Supposedly the purpose of the drug is to introduce Zinc into the cells to kill the virus.
Jack Posobiec twittered the drug is manufactured in Poland? And Bayer US has contributed millions of doses?

There are two other possible treatments,
Remesvidir (sp?) is being used in five trials in the US, including one in Mayo Clinics Rochester.
Another drug from a subsidiary of Fuji Film that was developed as an antiviral in Japan.

We need effective treatments to save patients, empty the hospitals, and most importantly, get the economy restarted!!!

One possible answer should be to have the patients sign legal releases for the experimental treatment. Similar to the "Right to Try" legislation championed by President Trump, and passed last legislative session.

Anonymous said...

If I do get the Wuhan Pneumonia, I will demand my doctor try one of the experimental drug therapies. I am over 60, immunocompromised by Crohns, and don't have children. I am willing to take personal risks if to make life better for my extended family. I will happily sign any releases to allow these treatments.

Bear Claw Chris Lapp said...

I stopped reading mcthag and others long ago when they got all butthurt. My Daddy always said STFU (not really just be quiet but thats how I hear the voice now) and listen to many and glean knowledge. He failed to add because you ain't that smart (see what I did there). Which none of us are but everyone adds color to the world and expertise just not in your area.

So much noise and stupidity out there it is hard as hell to do. My family has had the "its just the flu brah" mentality. All female so no support so I quietly have been doing what needs to be done for months based on yours and others words, so nooks and crannies are filled. It's the man's job to take care of his family. Today Aesop you and the news have elevated my concern greatly making me wonder if it was enough. As well as this.

Two days ago 55 year old healthy pentecostal preacher died in Tulsa. 44 cases now where a few days ago as i stated it was 2.

ps I have said a prayer or two lately, all of us should.

Bear Claw Chris Lapp said...

post ps. You made me read mcthag dammit because I clicked on the link. I always click on most links to get more information. Glad I did though. It will be the last time I go there.

MSG Grumpy said...

I hope and pray that Chloroquine does turn out to be as good as we need it to be.

I read about some testing that not only indicated that it could greatly improve and shorten the course of Wuhan Virus in a patient currently hospitalized.

And it also might actually help defend against infection as a prophylactic.
I have also read that zinc in conjunction can also help.

I have been taking zinc for years because of it's supposed help in defense against the common cold, so much the better if it helps here as well. While I have taken Chloroquine before and know first hand how effective it is in dealing with a rather nasty Malaria infection, I am also slightly allergic to it and blow up like the Michelin Man when taking it. But no airway constriction so all in all I vote two thumbs up for it over Malaria any day. So I would happily take it as the curative, would not however take it as the preventative.

If this does prove to be the silver bullet, We can all thank the Lord and hope to high heaven that we are not hamstrung by having to rely on China for the massive supply that will be needed.

Some people throw rocks when they heard bad news.
As a Weather Forecaster I got used to ducking when I rained on their parade.
I also had a saying for the people who liked shooting the messenger...

"If you don't like the Weather,
Don't complain to me, I'm in quality control...
You want to talk to the production department.
Talk to the Chaplin."

MSG Grumpy

Anonymous said...

Thank you Aesop for being you. OG

From Norway said...

As I told my sister, they better find a cure or a vaccine soon, because after 6 months of quarantine when there is hopefully no more cases in Norway, there is no way borders are opened and international travel resumes, as long as there is a single case anywhere in the world.

Indeed the world is going to change after this one.

Anonymous said...

@MSG: Took a look at the structure of chloroquine this AM. Very simple molecule and should be easy to synthesize. Raw materials should be able to be made right here in the US even though most are currently.. or were previously (seen no evidence yet that China is back in business) made in China.

IF preliminary results pan out then it should be easy to start producing this by the ton most ricky-tik. Trump will likely negotiate with companies with facilities that can do this as I think nationalization is not his preferred method.

I hope and pray most fervently that this is the cure it appears that it could be.

For the panic thing. I'm always telling the family that when they see me freak out then they can freak out. The little one once said, "But Papa you never freak out." My response was "exactly". Panic just adds a new problem to the list to be dealt with and does not help. Afterwards, if you've survived.. then go ahead and have a freak out, puke, cry, etc. But that is all for after the emergency is done.

Bram said...

Wow that would be nice if it really works. I took a weekly dose of that stuff when I was in the tropics for an extended period - no noticeable side effects and no malaria. If I get the Kung Flu, I'll tell the doctor I'm headed off for a Teddy Roosevelt style expedition to the Amazon.

carolinaTURTLE said...

(perhaps the following is news to only a small minority here?) For the good of my fellow commenters (and of course, our self-described humble blog host too!) i recently grasped the concept that pharmaceutical companies will make *WAAY* more profit profit by endlessly manufacturing drugs that alleviates the symptoms (such as insulin?) than one or two doses that provides the cure! Isn’t that sometimes referred to as a “conflict of interest”?

MSG Grumpy said...

From your mouth to God's ear...

Yep, agree about panic...
Never panic until you see Dad Panic.
If you see that, ...well NO ONE ever wants to see that.
As we used to say in the old days
"You and you - follow me. The rest of you panic"

Thanks Aesop, and may your work be boring and your customers be grateful.

MSG Grumpy

Robin Datta said...

How chloroquine works for COVID-19

Anonymous said...

"If we try it, and it works, we’re done. If it fails, we’re no worse off than we are without it." As I was listening to parts of the Kung Flu briefing last night on TV, I'm saying to myself WTF are these idiots going to invoke testing protocols that could take MONTHS for? The contra's and side effects on this thing are WELL KNOWN. This ain't rocket science. Go out and find some sick people, a couple dozen aught to do. Get their permission, give'em the drug, see what happens. Should take less than week.

I sent a letter to President Trump last night stating much the same and telling him that if he's getting push back from CDC and/or FDA, to fire people until he gets to the people that stand at attention and salute when given an order.

What a bunch of fucktards.


Anonymous said...

@Aesop: Thanks much for all that you have done for your audience and our families over the years. No one normal expects perfection in another person, but the willingness to spend great gobs of your time and effort to educate a bunch of others in what often are life and death matters is as commendable as it gets. Those who don’t appreciate either your efforts or the fact that you might occasionally blow a prediction, can go .... elsewhere or perform certain acts upon themselves.

@Everyone: a had an interesting experience yesterday and I would appreciate it if some people whom I respect (even if anonymously via the WWW) could chime in with their opinions on the matter. Here it is:

1. Last Thursday night, spouse’s cousin and here hubby went to a large party (probably 300 people in a social hall). They were invited as a courtesy, and didn’t know the hosts well at all.

2. Friday and Saturday evening, said cousin and family came to our home for desserts and BSing.

3. Tuesday night of this week the host of the party informed all attendees that one couple in attendance from NYC had tested positive for CV.

4. We asked cousin if she or her hubby had been anywhere near the couple in question, and they said absolutely not, that they had been on the other side of the room (at least 25yards away). We believe them, as we have been close for many years and they aren’t liars.

5. I looked at the CDC website, which said that you have to have direct contact (I.e. be within 6 or so feet, or touch a surface that an infected person coughed or sneezed on, in or to get infected by them. Further, it says that the ZcV is most communicable when a person is sick, and more when they are more sick. The couple that got it were apparently not sick on the night if the party, and cousin and hubby were most definitely not when in our home.

6. Based on 4 and 5, I went to work on Wednesday and yesterday. Work is me alone in an office, with the door shut, coming out only to go to the restroom or the kitchen. I was in the kitchen on Wednesday with 2 others for about 3 minutes, and for less than 2 with a different person yesterday. I never coughed or sneezed on either occasion, I was just breathing and talking.

QUESTION: am I an asshole who has no respect for others, or are the others over-reacting and panicking?

Thanks, all, for your comments.

Anonymous said...

...and if this drug works, why do we need to keep spending BILLIONS to develop a vaccine? This drug supposedly costs ~$0.40/dose, right now, with somewhat limited production. Yet, CDC and FDA will insist that we keep spending BILLIONS of our tax dollars to come up with a "better" solution that will probably be only marginally better in the long run.


Anonymous said...

Potentially good news. Chloroquine is not what they were giving for malaria when I was concerned with it; that was Mefloquine (sp?) and the side effects could be pretty bad.

I'll echo the thanks you rightly deserve for your role in this and other concerns and tell folks who whine to get over it.
Boat Guy

Anonymous said...

@Anon 0737: In your shoes I'd watch myself carefully for symptoms and stay home for the littlest thing. Also, if I were in your shoes the timeline would change at Fri/Sat to : dumbass cousin and hubby wanted to come over and I said NFW for at least 28 days. End of story.

@carolina Turtle: I work in pharma. Our 'leadership' can be as asinine as any other corporate 'leadership'. However, the people who do the day to day work are serious about finding cures if possible, and barring that, things that improve quality of life until cures are found. IF a cure for some disease (cancer is a fav.. they already have it blah blah blah) were found you could not keep it quiet. If those in charge tried to squash it said company would have more leaks than a strainer. FYI: many people who work in oncology at any level have lost someone to cancer. They would not be silenced. Not to mention you'd have to keep 100's to 1000's quiet about it.. good luck.

nick flandrey said...

Potential exposure is potential exposure. No one knows for certain if any of the caveats and conditions you related are actually true. That there are 'super spreaders' also APPEARS true. The kind of event you describe has a ton of handshaking, hugging, and bumping into each other. Perfect conditions to spread contagion.

I'd be cursing the one's that thought a minor social obligation trumped the need to stay away from people and crowds. And that then brought it into my house.

Stay home. Don't be 'that guy'.


From Norway said...

I am going to second Nick. If you work alone in an office, you can work from home.

If management complains you just need to say that you might have been exposed to the Kung Flu

Anonymous said...

25 yards don't mean a thing when droplets can survive up to 4-9 days on hard surfaces and up to hours on soft surfaces like clothes. was the room ventilated by AC was it filtered? You need to think you have been exposed and treat as such. 14-28 days for symptoms.

Anonymous said...

Yep boat guy, you nailed it.

"Potentially good news. Chloroquine is not what they were giving for malaria when I was concerned with it; that was Mefloquine (sp?) and the side effects could be pretty bad."

Same experience except they switched us over when the Mefloquine started causing some really bad nightmares/sleep walking/etc. After we switched to Chloroquine, no problem. I read somewhere yesterday that one of the USA suppliers is donating 1 million pills for use immediately. Also, they are researching malaria prone areas where Chloroquine is used frequently and have found some data that suggests COVID19 is much less of a problem in those areas.

Time will your six guys and stay frosty.


Crew said...

Why is Chloroquine a prescription item?

Anonymous said...

I hope it works good enough to atleast be a stop-gap preventer, and buys time for a dedicated medicine to be developed

But if Chloroquine the same anti-malarial that they gave us in Vietnam war, they better solve the "toilet paper crisis" ASAP.
I vividly remember that a few hours after taking your weekly dose of the malaria preventive, your stomach/bowel system felt like you'd just eaten a 1/2 box of Ex-Lax !!

Anonymous said...

"Stay Frosty",aye.
Been largely so for over a month and intend to continue to do just that till mid-late May at least. Yeah we buy groceries and gasoline, walk the dogs, wave at folks and talk to the neighbors at a double-arm interval. Temps at least twice daily and we're going through Clorox-wipes at a rate only allowed by long-standing preps.
Said preps began long before encountering our host in comments on another blog(PBUH) but got some good focus and augmentation during said host's posting on Ebola. Been thanking God that WuFlu is NOT Ebola.
Preps will continue just as training and teaching will. Been "in the ring" with pugil sticks, did some fencing as a kid and have been disagreed with our host on at least one topic, but he is my Brother and I respect him greatly and have been grateful to have his "counsel" on this blog
Boat Guy

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous Crew said...
Why is Chloroquine a prescription item?"

Hydoxychloroquine can cause drug-induced QT interval prolongation. (ECG morphology)

If (a significant "if") you have formal training and experience in reading and understanding ECG's, then it is (relatively) easy to monitor for changes.

The KardiaMobile 6L (AliveCor) provides smartphone linkage for a 6 lead ECG. The newer versions of the Apple Smartwatch perform a single lead reading, but sufficient to observe QT changes. (Both allow the wearer to send results to medical professionals.)

Crew said...

@Anon said:

"Hydoxychloroquine can cause drug-induced QT interval prolongation. (ECG morphology)"

But when you tell a doctor you are going to India they prescribe it, it seems, without doing any such checks.

Welcome Black Carter said...

"drug-induced QT interval prolongation" Sorry, not too good with med-speak. Looking it up got more of the same. Could I assume if I am already doing 5 hour PSVT episodes, I should not even get in the same room with this medication?

Anonymous said...

Love ya, man, you're a daily read and my kind of RN. would do your signal:noise ratio well to take the high road once in a while.

Aesop said...

The high road, in most cases, would be turning off comments, typing whatever I want, and sailing off into the sunset of total self-absorption. I'd be bored and done in about a month.

If this is going to be any kind of back-and-forth, the 10% who are unredeemed trolls are always going to filter in. And I don't suffer fools gladly, and then it's a hog rodeo.

Bee Ess said...

Lol, if the word "cure" gets associated w/ the news that its available at most pharmacies, AND the FDA is all "nope", needs moar tests. Expect ALL pharmacies to be in need of new windows.

Old NFO said...

Screw 'em. Those of us who APPRECIATE your information outnumber the fucktards probably 1000:1

S.Bishop said...

I've been an avid reader and enjoy your comments, but stealing my lunch money is a bridge too far.

Hawkin'Gal said...

What he (Old NFO) said...

My Mom, retired RN, and my sister, veterinary oncologist, have both been called about suiting up at a hospital. Mom had a hip replacement two weeks ago, and is sitting this one out, though, she says, the "oath" is hard to resist. Apparently, since all veterinarians are trained to give anesthesia, TPTB believe they could be "easily" retrained to monitor a ventilator.

Two weeks ago, a trusted source told me about hydroxycholoroquine and my mother was dismissive. Now that it's being mentioned on the Nightly News...

She gets leg cramps that have been greatly alleviated by drinking 2 oz/day of tonic water--which has trace amounts of quinine. Now she's telling my Dad to drink it too.

At least now my exhortations to STFH until there's a treatment don't seem interminable.

Badger said...

Yeah, the Chloraquine thing would be nice, no question. Collateral uses for existing drugs are found regularly, this just isn't the opportunity people were looking for, but hey...

Wife with HHT got some of her symptoms mitigated by small doses of an existing cancer drug and that was pretty much the result of some researchers saying "what if?"

I agree that Trump has net positives going on handling & doing what's right and, frankly, the ex- CDC/FDA officials making the talk circuit have been wasting oxygen far too long. But I'd like to see their ranks increased, as in heavy on the "EX-" CDC/FDA dunderhead.

Have you seen your ration of N95's that your Gov said he had stockpiled? (saw in news)
Be well & Draconian.

Anonymous said...

"What if?" The most important question for any researcher.. and the one that leads to all sorts of serendipitous discoveries.

nick flandrey said...

followed closely by "huh, that's strange...."


Crew said...

The government is full of incompetents is the only conclusion I can come to:

ThatWouldBeTelling said...

Crew: Because Dr. Fauci is a cautious doctor who's become a scientist? Until we see enough evidence that chloroquine works on this virus, and how well it works, his caution is entirely appropriate. And Trump's enthusiasm is also appropriate. Between these two extremes we'll find out soon enough its place in handling COVID-19.

S.Bishop said...

I agree with respect to Dr. Fauci's credentials. However, how could he not see the need to develop a nationwide testing protocol following the Ebola virus problem, in which he was involved. Did nobody in any internal meeting raise their hand and ask, "Do we have a workable plan if we ever see something similar to Ebola or worse?" If that well-reasoned plan evolved so that all testing had to be validated and processed through the CDC to ensure data collection/accuracy when you are talking about 330 million people, that would be a red flag.

ThatWouldBeTelling said...

S.Bishop: Dr. Fauchi isn't in the CDC, rather he's head of a NIH institute, and I'm sure he's very glad of that today. The CDC with some help from the FDA sandbagged the entire nation for more than a month on testing, and that includes using tests in their existing surveillance networks which was part of the plan all along.

OvergrownHobbit said...

If someone is on team Western civ, you ought to be able to take a kick in the nuts (virtually -speaking) and be fine.

6 tries out of of 10 in my case I had it coming.