Friday, March 27, 2020

Baby Ducks & Hidden Rabbits

To A Baby Duck, everything is new. Every minute of every day.
I mention that because I've only said what I'm about to cover about 57 times in the last 6 weeks, but maybe one more time will bring it home.

"You are really upset about this virus. Apparently It's not the death toll, it cannot be the number that tests positive - they don't all need hospital bed space, it isn't your love of Leftist gov't employees, -- What the heck are you seeing in CA that we should worry about??? I'm just not seeing it. If they covered the Swine flu like they are covering this nothing burger - we would have been hiding under our beds..." - Anonymous
So, yet again:

The death rate per se (the CFR) is meaningless (except to the Guests of Honor, and their nexts-of-kin). The dead are dead; as Patrick McGoohan said in Braveheart, "they cost nothing".
[BTW, the number of Kung Flu deaths in the U.S. went up 280 between 7:57A and 3:19P , just today, per the Johns Hopkins Kung Flu tracker. That's one death every two minutes, kids. Forget that it's exponential, for a minute. If it flat-lines, and stays at just that rate, it's 700/day. That's another 2800 by end of the month. Another 21,000 on top of that by the end of April. Which is more than the number of flu deaths (20K) in the U.S., in an average year. In one month. Oh, and it's not flat. Minute's up: It's growing exponentially. But that's still not the biggest problem.]

But if the "requires hospitalization rate" for this virus is 1%, and "only" 100M people get it, that's 100K more beds than we have in the nation.
If the "requires ICU admission" rate is "only" 0.1%, that's 40K more ICU beds than we have available in the whole U.S.
(For those who noticed, the old number was 90K ICU beds. It's not. It's 60K. The other 30K are PICU beds, pediatric beds, etc., none of which can nor should be converted to adult ICU beds. So you have approx. 60K ICU beds, in 50 states. period. -A.)

That's 40K Kung Flu patients who'll die.
And another 60K other critical patients who'll die too, because there will be no available ICU beds for them either.

This is like an Indy crash, where the announcer is focusing on "this will only kill 1 driver, FFS; what's the fuss?", except the car is airborne and flying at 200MPH at 50 feet, headed right for the thicket of hundreds of fans in the grandstand, who have nowhere to move out of the way. They're going to die too, and no one is thinking about that.

Everybody's looking at the magician's hat, and I'm telling you where the rabbit is going to come from.

If you can do magic, pull a top hat out of a rabbit, and then come talk to me.


Anonymous said...

I've been keeping a spread sheet of World Wide and US stats on Kung Flu since 10-MAR. In 17 days the WW death rate has increased from 3.51% to 4.53%. Meanwhile the US death rate has decreased from 2.91% to 1.51%. I think that's because of the dramatic rise in number of cases being reported and the heroic efforts of the our host's colleagues around the country.

I'm using simple equations to determine %'s, i.e. # dead / # of cases = %

I think it's maybe early to really rely on this data as a trend because we haven't gotten to our host's OH SHIT we're out of ICU beds quite yet, but we're rapidly getting there. The US case (that's confirmed cases, either hospitalized or tested, I'm not sure which it is or both) numbers come from the John's Hopkins dashboard at 8:00AM each day and have ballooned by 100X+ (from 755 to 86012) in 17 days.

That 100X number is scary as hell. if 100X does 100X again in 17 more days, that's ~30% of the current US population.

Another 100X 17 days further on? We're done as country.


Anonymous said...

Norcal here: Covid's just starting its exponential move in the Bay Area. While much is reported about peripheral counties the media is somewhat mum about what's happening in San Francisco. My guess is you can forget about wearing a flower in your hair............

Survivormann99 said...

I fully expect that once this Chinese virus gets into the homeless population in San Francisco and LA, the media won't be able to stay "mum" any longer. Washing hands and maintaining personal space are practices that are just not in the DNA of the homeless. It is a matter of days before the virus begins to burn like a wildfire through these cities.

Of course, the cases will not stay in the homeless camps and then all hell will break loose.

nick flandrey said...

Numbers fuckery in Italy.

What's been going on with the daily numbers of coronavirus cases in Italy? Why are we seeing different sets of numbers being reported? Here's what's changed, and a quick explanation of how we're reporting the figures at The Local.

Like many media outlets, we've been bringing you daily updates on the number of coronavirus cases here in Italy, as well as the number of deaths, the number of people who have recovered, and other data on the crisis as it's released by the Italian authorities.

And we've all been watching these numbers especially closely over the past week for signs that the epidemic in Italy may be peaking.

But there was confusion on Wednesday and Thursday when, after the daily 6pm news conference, given by the Department for Civil Protection, the media started reporting different numbers. So why did that happen?

According to data site Worldometers, it's because the Department for Civil Protection started reporting the numbers in a different way on Wednesday, apparently without warning.

Officials are now reporting the new cases minus the numbers of those who have recovered and died that day - instead of simply giving the total number of new cases confirmed. Which means the number given is quite a lot lower.

Worldometers, which asked ihe Department for Civil Protectionto explain their new method of reporting, writes that officials are "incorrectly representing the figure as "newly infected" when, in fact, it represents the "change in active cases""

You can read a full explanation of the changes here – under “Updates” at the bottom of the page.

At The Local we have continued to report the full number of new cases, as we have done all along, to avoid confusion. Other media doing this include Italian newspaper Il Corriere della Sera.

We're still getting the figures directly from the Departmnent of Civil protection, but to avoid confusion we are only reporting the total number of new cases given each day, found within the official data - and not the “change in active cases” figure being quoted at the press conference.

Lies, damn lies, and official government numbers.


Anonymous said...

French researchers completed new additional study on 80 patients, results show a combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin to be effective in treating COVID-19

Unknownsailor said...

The one thing no one is figuring into their statistics is the # who get it and recover with no or mild symptoms. We don't know how many in the US this is because none of them are being tested, and no one is doing anti-body sampling. If they are a large portion of the infected population, and there are hints that they are (Diamond Princess, South Korea numbers), then we are much closer to the end of the doubling curve than it was previously assumed.

For example, if the 44,635 currently reported cases in New York (as of 0119 EST 28 March) represent in reality 15% of overall cases, that means the real case count is almost 300,000, or 44635 divided by 15%. Double that every 2 days, and in 12 days you get a hypothetical 100% infection rate of the entire state of NY (estimated 19.45 million pop.) or less than 8 days to the beginning of herd immunity 70%.

It would be really nice to nail down that asymptomatic %.

Anonymous said...

I have to say I have never heard more hopium unadulterated bullshit from so called "mainstream sources" in my life. From the "You really don't need to wear a mask if you are healthy" articles to the continuing "The annual flu causes more deaths than this virus". Then there are so called experts saying the numbers on the CFR are all wrong because so many of us have already been infected with no bad results and hence have gained immunity. OK if that is true show me some verifiable date to back up that claim. Crickets. In my area 26% of infected cases are health care workers and we are not projected to peak until May. Wonder how many HCW workers will be around by then. Nobody wants panic but we are hopefully mature adults so how about the so called authorities play level and quit the bullshit. If you had to go to the store to get some eye shadow or your favorite avocado dip I mentally will piss on your grave. Rant off. Thanks Aesop. Your posts have been on spot as usual. Stay well folks and give what common sense God gave you the position in the driver's seat.

Anonymous said...

India has officially recommended prophylactic use of hydroxychloroquine for health workers and families of confirmed positives.

Will said...

Stories from various ERs, I think in TX:

Anonymous said...

Australia's economy is completely imploding. The lack of LEADERSHIP is glaring.

Aesop said...


Nope, that's one doctor, one ER, in Nawlins.
I'm posting it verbatim in a couple of hours.
And printing it out for my ER docs and colleagues.

Reltney McFee said...

Aesop: couldn't it be that the New Orleans doc you quoted, is seeing the results he reports due to the late stage at which the hydroxychloroquine is administered? It seemed to me that that was the case per his narrative. Correct me if I'm mistaken.

Anonymous said...

Second Coronavirus Study by Dr. Didier Raoult in France Gets Amazing Results for 78 out of 80 Patients

"We need an effective treatment to cure COVID-19 patients and to decrease the virus carriage duration. In 80 in-patients receiving a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin we noted a clinical improvement in all but one 86 year-old patient who died, and one 74 year-old patient still in intensive care unit. A rapid fall of nasopharyngeal viral load tested by qPCR was noted, with 83% negative at Day7, and 93% at Day8. Virus cultures from patient respiratory samples were negative in 97.5% patients at Day5. This allowed patients to rapidly de discharge from highly contagious wards with a mean length of stay of five days. We believe other teams should urgently evaluate this cost-effective therapeutic strategy, to both avoid the spread of the disease and treat patients as soon as possible before severe respiratory irreversible complications take hold. "

nick flandrey said...

"Then there are so called experts saying the numbers on the CFR are all wrong because so many of us have already been infected with no bad results and hence have gained immunity"

--I agree. Anyone remember where the 80% mild cases number came from? I can't. I remember who used it, but no good reasoning for using 80% other than SWAG.

--I'd think we'd be seeing fewer infections among HCW teachers and bartenders if having it was widespread and gave immunity. No idea how to model that, but the infections seem to rip thru whole communities in NY without a lot of slowing by community immunity.

--once again, it doesn't really matter. We can do the math with the numbers we have and it's still devastating.


ThatWouldBeTelling said...

Anyone remember where the 80% mild cases number came from? I can't.

Originally the PRC, AKA the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). And as I recall it was "cases not serious enough to normally require hospitalization," vs. "mild."

nick flandrey said...

Thanks, that's what I was afraid of. SO the 80% can be complete bullshite too.


Unknown said...

Thank you for your post, I am trying to share this information with a wider audience, however many are asking me for the name of the doctor in New Orleans who originally posted this. Do you happen to have that information?
Thank you