Wednesday, July 25, 2018

A Picture Worth A Thousand Words

h/t Silicon Graybeard

Great space tech post at SiG's site. RTWT.

That graph is the picture.
Here's the thousand words.

Space-X, in six years, has CRUSHED everyone else, pushing China, Japan, and most of everyone else but a small Russian ability, and the ESA, completely out of the orbital launch market.

Like to nearly the "Game Over" stage, for all commercial intents.

I did not realize that until I saw the graph.
(This, folks, is why we read other people, because it makes us smarter. I mention that in case you only had a Common Core education.)

And the only reason they haven't done the same for manned launches is because NASA won't certify their vehicles for manned launches. IOW, NASA is subsidizing the Russian monopoly on manned launches in preference to home-grown absolute capabilities. This would be like the FAA telling Delta they could only fly cargo. (And whoever that sumbitch responsible is at NASA, he needs firing. If he's civil service, I'm sure he can be de-rated down to janitorial staff at that Australian space monitoring station, for life. More on Oz in a moment.)

What NASA is doing is the worst aspect of Democrat-pushed crony capitalism.
What Space-X is doing is how monopolies monopolize constrained only by the invisible hand of the free market, and why monopolies per se aren't necessarily a bad thing.
The same thing happened with railroads, and over time, they not only consolidated, but also lowered the cost of transporting goods and people from Point A to Point B, which benefitted everybody.

Not least of which, people named Vanderbilt, Carnegie, et al.

People (rightfully) give Elon Musk a lot of $#!^ for sucking off the government's teat when it comes to the Tesla, which he makes at a loss every time he sells one, and wouldn't exist at all without massive government subsidies. (Thanks Pres. Obozo: You built that!)

If Musk would leave the cars alone, and focus entirely on the rocket business, and the NASAtards would GTFO of his way, we'd be colonizing Mars and the Moon before I die, and turning a profit at it.

I noted a few days ago that we put men on the moon in less than a decade after Pres. Kennedy said we would. And we did it with transistor technology, before microchips. So in light of that, I don't think asking for a paying moon colony by 2050 is too much to ask.

Even if it's only to provide a penal colony, and a place to repatriate the Moonbats back to their native land when they reach Peak Stupid, and can't help themselves but transgress.

Don't laugh; look what the British Empire did with their reprobates.
Oz hasn't turned out too badly, now has it?

It may even turn out that by 2200 or so, when we launch NCC-1701, that Khan was actually the great-great-great-great grandson of the current mayor of London.
Wouldn't that be a hoot!


Odds are 2000:1 in favor that we can successfully clone Shatner by then, and the circle will be complete.


Irish said...


Aesop, If you haven't seen this parody yet it's gold.

Dinochrome One said...

RE: Lunar Penal Colony, "The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress" RAH (Should be a movie!)

James said...

Aesop, great piece again, but . . . On terminal leave from the Army I was able to get a hop (USAF transport, a C-141, loud but $20 each way) from Travis AFB to Richmond AFB, right outside of Sydney, Had a few friends there I met while they were in the US, and offered me lodging if I ever made it that far South.

I was driving around in Western New South Wales, enjoying the desert and the sights, I saw a sign that said Tidbinbilla Base, Joint NASA Site. I drove there, told the gate guard I'd like to ask someone for a tour. About 5 minutes later the guard gave me his phone (land line on a long cord) and the guy asked me what I did for the Army, what my clearance was, and why was I there. Told the story again, and I was directed to the front door, where the base director, a Mr Turner, greeted me and actually gave me a tour (this was in 1982). Said I was the first American there in years. Remind Mr Turner I was a mere tourist and just a huge space fan, and had seen photos and videos of this base watching US manned spaceflight while growing up and as a young adult.

I got an hour-long grand tour during lunch hour; it was just about the best part of my trip in OZ. The enthusiasm of the people there was overwhelming, much more so than anything I'd seen in the US in years. Space, space exploration MATTERED to them.

I would NOT exile a NASA GS-15 or SES there. Too good for 'em. I think that paying Russia to do what we should be doing ourselves deserves a different sort of termination . . .

I am so glad this is making a comeback. Yes, Aesop, Musk needs to bail on the super subsidized battery cars and spend all his time reconquering space - something we just about did, and then walked off, in the early 1970s. Great piece and link from SiGB.

James Ponder

Anonymous said...

2000 to 1 odds


Glenda T Goode said...

The monopoly of the railroads kept the branchlines open and the passenger trains running. The mail contracts did the same.

Enter the government and the mail contracts were pulled in favor of airplanes. The topsy turvy regulatory process prior to total deregulation brought the end of a huge portion of the rail infrastructure and the cessation of passenger service.

The government is probably the worst adjudicator of what is right or best. Invariably, special interests have way too much influence. Common sense is an abstract thought process and that inefficiency rules the day.

Defense contractors enjoy a relationship with the government that could be called incestuous at best. Depending on which party is in power people have opportunities that are tantamount to bribery as a reward for awarding a contract. Defense is interwoven with NASA to the detriment of that agency.

Political agendas make up too much of our policy in regards to NASA. When Charles Bolden was appointed the head of NASA by Obama, his mission was to do outreach to the muslim world.

"..President Obama told NASA administrator Charles Bolden that his highest priority should be "to find a way to reach out to the Muslim world and engage much more with dominantly Muslim nations to help them feel good about their historic contribution to science ... and math and engineering."

Gone were our efforts for a space craft and the shuttles were retired. Talk about neutering our space program.

I would expect that spending at NASA is about as efficient as it is everywhere else where government is spending money. The idea of using a private contractor makes ultimate sense as there is a much higher rate of utilization of the money involved. Hopefully later this year both Space X and Boeing will get certified to launch and return our astronauts. We could potentially then end what amounts to welfare payments to Russia that are represented by our contracting with them for transportation to the space station and back.

AB.Prosper said...

As a society the West revival or not will not be making off world colonies. Its a dumb idea on its face to spend trillions of dollars shipping air, food, water, soil and supplies at least a quarter million miles or 33 million if we want to got Mars .

We don't have most of the pieces of the technology and if we did somehow manage it , the place would have less freedom than ADX Florence as one mistake can kill everyone

The Moon isn't a Harsh Mistress, its a choking hell slowly killing people with radiation and bone loss.

Way before we consider trying even a science outpost we need to be able to sustain our nuclear deterrent since we can no longer make tritium, rebuild a new transportation system , rebuild communications, electricity, water and so on.

This will leave us roughly a tin pot to piss in for a Mars trip for the next 50 years, that is assuming automation leaves us enough wages for a functional economy.

And no Musk will not save us, he is subsidized by the State and in fact was just on TV begging for for money to make Telsa profitable . Cut his funds off and that's it.

Even that rosy scenario is predicated on large chunks of the US like California no longer being Mexico Norte or packed with carpetbaggers and money men.

Now China will land on the moon and may go to Mars but they won't be doing much more than that either. The economy over there is a mess too.

Anderson said...

I don't see humans ever living on the moon. Our bodies need gravity. When the American Scott Kelly set the space station record of 340 consecutive days aboard, his skeletal frame shrunk so much that he returned a full 2 inches shorter.

Jonathan H said...

Musk may be taking over more of the commercial launch business, but I think there are 2 factors at work here that are not usually mentioned:
1. Musk used lobbying and lawsuits to get a VERY favorable position for his company; while I haven't seen what he pays for use of Cape Canaveral, I suspect it is less than the value of the services the government provides. His very questionable snagging of 'national defense' payloads was in effect a huge subsidy since his rockets didn't meet the required standards. He is in effect cornering the market by dumping - selling a product below what it is worth.
2. The whole commercial market is depressed right now; a number of different satellite constellations have been completed recently, so there is a lull in demands for launchers. Long term I see pressure from Europe to use ESA and requirements from China to use Chinese systems, as well as other small launch companies coming into service. My prediction is that SpaceX is more like Myspace than Google - it flared fast and bright for a while, but will drop off as it gets superseded.

Irish said...

OT again. Aesop, there is a possible Ebola case at Denver hospital:

Badger said...

Hopefully "our faithful hero" isn't in Denver and has only "gone fishin'" instead.

Anonymous said...

I was wondering the same thing. No posts since last Wednesday.
Hope all is well, and he didn't get knocked-off by some crazy leftist loon.

Anonymous said...

Well, I think it's our civic duty to keep posting until our host returns from whatever urgent task he's currently engaged in.

Here's a link to an article that confirms (gasp!) what Aesop has been saying about the "opiod crisis" - that it's all illegal drugs.

Anonymous said...

Opioid, not opiod. I think that opiod is Ron Howard acting strangely.

Anonymous said...

more Ebola news:

Anonymous said...

In a continuing effort to maintain posts here, I'm going to point out that one of the links on Aesop's side bar (Max Velocity Tactical) is well worth your time. Max has recently been posting videos on subjects ranging from AR manipulation to small unit tactics.

Clearing AR malfunctions:

Reacting to contact:

Watch the videos to get a taste of training with Max. I have trained with him and highly recommend it.

Opie Odd

James said...

Aesop - are you there? No signals from your HQ in a while, need to know if you are still online/A-OK.

Anonymous said...

Either "A" is doing some time in a Ca gulag or he turned tail and ran.

I don't want to come across as harsh, but I think that if his absence were work or health related his readers would have been informed.

Also I haven't seen any comments from him on any other of my regular haunts either.

So what is it.


Anonymous said...

I'm wondering if antifa or some of the other violent leftists got him.
Sure hope not.

Anonymous said...

Anyone know anything????

Baldrick said...

Aesop wouldn't turn tail and run, I'm pretty damn sure of that. Usually silences like this mean illness, losses in the family, new addictions to the family so having to travel and no time to write, or any number of personal issues that prevent a person from writing online (and being online the last thing on their mind). My hope is for his health and the health of his family, and he'll be back when he can.

Grog said...

Whatever is happening, Aesop, good thoughts to you, update us as soon as you can.