From today's germinal post over at Forward Observer:
"Here’s the key thing about our future conflict: it won’t be a conventional war. We’re not talking about tanks in the streets or bombing insurgents into submission. The combatants of tomorrow won’t take part in pitched battles of maneuver warfare, but they’ll engage in what we’re already seeing:RTWT.
In other words, our war includes all the activities below the threshold of conventional war, but above routine, peaceful competition."
- political warfare
- economic warfare
- information operations/propaganda
- cultural/class war
- sporadic political violence
Von Clausewitz famously wrote,
"War is a continuation of politics, by other means"
The reverse is also true:
Politics is a continuation of war, by other means.
As polarization, public revulsion, and loss after loss at the ballot box closes off the Left's political options, (and given that they aren't the most rational, stable, and patient bunch to begin with), they have and will continue to push beyond mere political solutions, and use the means noted to wage the multi-front war they seem to desire from deep down inside.
As we learned from Guido the Killer Pimp in Risky Business, "In a sluggish economy, never, ever f--- with another man's livelihood..."
The Left will ignore that lesson, due to hubris, delusion and unmitigated stupid, and there will be pushback.
Unrest turns to boycotts turns to strikes turns to bombings turns to leg- and head-breakers, and that's here, in the United States, in still-living memory. (Knowing L.A. history pretty well, even for one of the few actual natives in that town, I was one day nonetheless rather astonished to find myself standing in front of, while on a film shoot in the Hollywood Forever Cemetery on the backside of Paramount Studios' lot, a memorial crypt from the 1910 L.A. Times bombing, committed by leftist union thugs, with all the names of the 21 victims buried there on the large monument. Over a hundred more were injured by the blast. Anti-union Publisher Harrison Gray Otis used to carry a pistol everywhere and every day, because he needed it. Now the communists run the L.A. Times, and they all hate guns, editorially, and love leftists. That's another topic. But the Left's tactics haven't changed much in a hundred years, have they?)
But we don't teach history any more.
Ignorance, stupidity, delusion, and gullibility will be the midwives that bring about the birth of a hot war with multiple loci from those different asymmetrical warfare approaches, rather than a great classic conflict. And no one will be more surprised when it gets away from them, both by incompetence and malign design, than the Left.
Agitation turns to shouting turns to shoving turns to punching turns to shooting.
It's true when psychotic patients escalate in the hospital, it's true during police confrontations, and it's true in mob actions. Except in the last case, with less reason or accountability, once groups descend to mob mentality. People that start out from a basis of irrationality and incivility don't give birth to calm, considerate discussions of issues.
We're already regularly at Stage 4 and occasionally Stage 5 in that continuum, above.
People who've experienced it describe personal financial disaster as happening "Slowly at first, and then all at once." The meltdown of society probably isn't going to be a Pearl Harbor or 9/11 sort of moment. It's going to be the more frequent, shorter, and sharper escalations, leading to greater amounts of violence, until suddenly anything, everywhere, turns into maximum meltdown.
At that point, I suspect the biggest crowds with diversity will be the worst, and the places with near-parity the likeliest flashpoints, i.e. all the places where big red areas rub up against those little blue islands on the political maps, or those closest to a true 50/50 split. Mostly- and all-red or all-blue spots probably won't be as bad, though woe to those in the minority in either case.
Matt Bracken's "Bosnia times Rwanda" quote applies.
Those are the political fault lines I see.
Zip codes, neighborhoods, blocks, streets, house-by-house, and door-to-door.
That red-yellow-green-blue map may become a lot more important, at least in the faultline areas.
Just like the no-go areas in Eurostan, it always takes a certain amount of diversity to make a mob, and then it just wants a leader or three, a push, and a spark.
It might be in five years, or five minutes.
But don't think for one minute that it cannot happen here, or that it magically won't.
The main mystery now is when, not whether.