Friday, June 17, 2022

Heavy Metal


Oberst Reisner of the OB just uploaded another briefing, this time in English.

Not much up-to-the-minute info, but two takeaway factoids worthy of note:

1) Original briefings by US DoD people stated we would be sending a whole 18 M777 howitzers to Ukraine. That's three batteries, which is one bare battalion. Which ain't a helluva lot in a 100,000-man 600-mi. long frontline. Color me unimpressed at the time.

Obst. Reisner's briefing reveals that, from all NATO sources, Ukraine has actually received 114  M777 howitzers.

For reference, that's 19 complete artillery batteries, and more artillery tubes than you would find in a USMC division. That's comparatively yuuuuge. It is, however, not enough to support anything like the entire front line.

2) Also notably absent from Reisner's latest briefing:

Any wild headless-chicken nonsense about the Ukrainians in headlong retreat, collapsing, or in any serious difficulty. Unlike, say, multiple online Putin junk-garglers who have declared Ukraine lost, and the war already over. Pretty much like that 90-day long victory in Mariupol (where after three months of waiting hopelessly for Russia to actually win, the Ukrainian military command ordered the regiment+ of troops still fighting there to go ahead and surrender).

So, you can believe the non-NATO disinterested third-party expert analysis of a certified military genius with full access to real-time military intelligence about that, or you can go with the uninformed bloviations from the least thoughtful gasbags on the internet.

That's a pretty easy call for me to make; you're on your own.

Comedy Relief: Russia never invaded Ukraine, there is no war there, and a free and independent country like Ukraine cannot be allowed to decide its own destiny or alliances.


Anonymous said...

Wait. An Austrian military officer is a "disinterested third party"? Have you been drinking? And the Ukrainians don't have enough ammo for their existing tubes, much less 114 additional tubes. Meanwhile, Ukrainian sources report (in the NYT no less) the Russians are firing up to 60k shells a day, with no sign of letting up. And China just publicly backed Russia, explicitly. Can I say, it's fascinating that your analysis of the Russian position/prospects is orders of magnitude more pessimistic than Martin Van Crevald's, a man who is a legitimate military genius. He's not all roses for Russia, but you're preemptively dancing on Russia's grave like a demented tasmanian devil.

Robin Datta said...

Rose fertilizer...

Aesop said...

1) Austria is not a member of NATO nor the EU, and remains officially neutral. This is apparently news to you, despite it being their national policy for 77 years. So now we know who's been at the bottle before posting.
2) The M777s don't fire existing Ukrainian 152mm ex-Soviet rounds, they fire NATO 155mm rounds, so one has nothing to do with the other. This is also apparently something you overlooked while drinking your dinner.
3) Russia can continue to fire 60K shells a day. They're barely gaining anything, in return for expending stocks of ammo in hours which they can't replace in years.
4) China will do what China will do. China is asshoe. Besides pablum pronouncements, is China actually supplying anything to Russia? If not, WhoGAF what they say?
5) I expressed no such pessimism, nor danced on Russia's grave. I'm simply pointing out that in return for a massive expenditure of blood and treasure, they're totally destroying the area they want to claim, and taking, to date, 115 days to still not do it. And counting. And this is just to gain control over the area that was supposedly already on their side.

If you can't tell the difference between being defeated (which I've never claimed), and squandering military might by the metric fuckton, I can't help you.

Russia, from a 10:1 initial advantage, is embarrassing itself with its own military impotence, and making Pyrrhus look like a military genius.
Try this again when you sober up.

jack said...

Austria is a member of EU, although not of NATO...

Aesop said...

My mistake, you are correct. Was looking at info that stated they aren't allowed to join military or political alliances, and the quote wandered into Switzerland's EU info. Economic alliances for Austria are apparently okay.

WRT NATO, they're prohibited by treaty signed after WWII from joining, and must remain strictly neutral. Switzerland does the same by absolute choice, going back centuries.

Anonymous said...

This is going to be a long, long war. We will likely be arguing about it next June too. After Ukraine has expelled the Russians from the Kiev, Sumy and Chernihiv regions, it has settled down into a slugging match over the Donbas Region.

So much for Putin's 3-Day Special Operation.


Aesop said...

I'll be surprised if The Usual Suspects aren't still assuring us then that "Any day now, Russia wins, because Vladpoleon!"
I think Russia missed getting their asses handed to them in A-stan, and decided to try it again, but closer to home, and with no inconvenient language barrier.
This is the definition of "slow learner".

Allen said...

I note that all the people who keep up the "ukraine will collapse any minute now!" mantra have a vested interest in the continued existence of a russian boogeyman.

either selling equipment, or for geopolitical reasons.

Paul said...

No one can see the future. But I think Russia might have gone over the rails a bit. I am more concerned with escalation involving nato members. I think Biden would love to have a war to distract from his failed presidency.

No. I don’t see this ending well.

Anonymous said...

Western Europe is seriously worried about freezing in the dark next Winter. They have even overruled their own "well thought out" Green Energy Plans and are allowing Coal plants to run. The fact that they are telling the Greens to shove off now, in June tells you how afraid they are for next winter.

Germany and the Netherlands are back to using more eeevil Coal. Netherlands is even pumping their own natural gas again!