Friday, December 11, 2020

Regarding The Calculus

h/t WRSA

GVDL shared comments and thoughts at his site about the prospects for the upcoming sportiness.

One commenter shared his thought on how that will go. Go to Gerard's site, and read the exchange, then come back.


1) The idea that LE, the Notional Guard, and the .Mil will work in lockstep is twaddle.
Read up on retired Lt. Gen. Russell Honore's memoirs regarding how that went during and after Katrina, then tell the class we're better, after Obama, at doing that now.

2) LE, all by itself, can generally fuck up a crowbar in a sandbox, unassisted.
I can only point to 5,000 news stories just in the last decade if you need references.

3) Their resources for handling a SWAT incident are neither comprehensive nor resilient.
Two bank robbers tied up the LAPD for most of a day. One Dorner tied up ALL OF CALIFORNIA for a week. One shooter at LAX, despite being downed by the airport cops in about 90 seconds, had LAX shut down for an entire day, and jammed up ATC throughout the country for days afterwards. And those are just three incidents from Califrutopia in RECENT times, let alone what would happen in 49 other states. 10 incidents in 10 states in the same week would cripple the country even if totally uncoordinated and random.

4) The Notional Guard, God bless 'em, regularly deploy to combat. Nonetheless, they spent 250 years earning their reputation as second-tier only after long and frequent evidence of same. It's great when they show up to help after a tornado or hurricane. Not so much if you think they're going to be the cavalry riding to the rescue, most times and places. They'd be better than the Mexican Army, sure. But even a decent Canadian active duty armored brigade would probably work them over. 1000 or 10,000 random actors in 50 states? Pfffft. At that point, the Notional Guard becomes a resupply point, not an impediment.

3) Active forces: As if.
a) The tooth to tail ratio is legendary.
b) They would be starting in the Green Zone, and are behind enemy lines from the minute they come out to play. Including their wives and families. You're sending the 1st Armored after Joe Blow? Tell me how that's going to work when he bombs their kids' playground, and shoots up the mall their wives shop at. They won't get 20 yards from post before they'll turn their turrets around, and RTB. Then the CG orders all dependents onto post, and locks the division down UFN, and laagers up the entire command inside his own wire. Game Over.
Air power? It is to laugh. Most of their flight lines are within effective range of .50cal sniper fire before they even get off the ramp. Their supply lines are all in occupied enemy territory. Food, POL, spare parts. They could fly for maybe a week, tops. Then they'd be grounded, if they ever even took off. And I don't even need SA-7s nor Stingers to get to that point.

4) Reality: Any commander would know that over half his troops would side with the insurgency, and not just a few commanders, who would all defect wholesale, with all equipment. Hell, that even happened in the Russian coup attempt, when it was still the Soviet uUnion, under the iron grip of the CCCP. You think good old boys in Texas, Georgia, NC, etc. would be less inclined to start stringing up generals, or more???
It's even odds that the minute you tried going all posse commitatus on American soil, Marines from Quantico and Lejeune would have already seized the White House, and be holding the entire NCA under guard before anyone else had a chance to stop it, and they'd be reinforced by the 82d AB division and Special Forces before lunch time.

5) There are more hunting licenses just in PA than there are all troops in the US Army.
By 50%.
There are more hunting licenses in the US (nearly 37M, last I looked) than the number of all soldiers in all armies of the world, combined.
Let's spot you that 3M of those are every active and reserve military member, and every LEO in the U.S.
So that only leaves hunters outnumbering cops and military in the country at 10:1 odds.
That war is over by breakfast on Tuesday the Monday it starts, and 90% of them don't even get to fire a shot before Team Oppression is extinct.
The second and third volley wipes out every Democommunist in these United States, and that's less ammo than those hunters used to sight in last year.
Seriously, the idea that this would be hard is risible.
9 out of 10 hunters would be skunked, without anyone but civilians to shoot at, and that's the biggest tragedy in the whole scenario.

6) A couple of years before his untimely death, WeaponsMan estimated (with copious supporting records and documentation) that the oft-cited hoary statistic of "200M guns" in the US was off and understating things by a factor of 3, minimum. (Common Core grads, that means there were 600,000,000 guns.) That was several years ago, and recent events and sales lead one to the inevitable conclusion that there are probably circa 1 BILLION firearms in private hands in the U.S., and several trillions of rounds of ammunition for same.

7) The idea that we couldn't defeat Iraq and Afghanistan is ludicrous. Our military couldn't, certainly, under Marquess Of Queensbury ROE that required them to extend their pinky fingers, and wait to be shot at before returning fire. But if we simply turned hunters loose on those two countries, and issued bounties, you could move in lions and buffalo to restock the human deserts they'd become, if we'd taken that approach, and it wouldn't have taken more than about a month. And both former nations' populations would be as extinct as Carthaginians after the Third Punic War.
"But Aesop, we'd NEVER do that!!"
Perhaps not. More's the pity.
Now tell me the average hunter wouldn't decide that in a civil war, all bets were off, and human life was too precious to shed blood on behalf of liberty and freedom.
Bear well in mind, you'd be selling this to people who kill a deer every year, and already like guns.
I haven't even brought in the other 200M gun owners with no hunting license, who just want to be left alone. So please, tell me they're all going to sit this one out. I think it far likelier they'll settle that shit with one magazine expended apiece, and then go home in peace for the next 100 years, because they could at that point.
And some of them would take the time to mount the heads on pike poles at the city gates afterwards, pour encourager les autres.

8) I'm supposed to be afraid of Big Tech, and neighbors, because reasons.
a) Tech runs on power. If you forgot that, you're an amateur, and should get back on the porch. If you didn't know that because you never thought of it, shame on you. And kindly STFU. Adults are talking.
b) Neighbors run on food. Right now, "snitches get stiches". In civil war, snitches get body bags. And it's tough to tattle if you can't phone it out. Those Karens are going to learn to MYOFB, or they're going to be an endangered species in about a heartbeat. Some will figure it out after the first time they get cold-cocked like Moldylocks did. The ones who keep yapping after that will resemble Eddie Adams' portrait of a VC in Saigon, just as his mind was opened to a new way of thinking. Suture self.

Bug? Feature? Depends which side of the muzzle you're on.

c) How did big tech, a military machine, and snitches work for TPTB in Saigon, Beirut, or Sarajevo?
How about in Baghdad or Kabul? Are we winning there, or not? Show your work.

So yes, things will get sporty, then they'll get ugly.
But anyone that thinks this is going to be a losing proposition for Average Joe are trying to wargame army men against Indians, thinking the cavalry's carbines are insurmountable.

Tell that to Custer.

That's the correct paradigm to look at a civil (which will be anything but) conflict between the people and the .gov in this country.

Team Oppression can make an example out of the brave but stupid, certainly.
But in the end, they're going to be a dead elephant making a meal for jackals, buzzards, and ants.

Ozymandias said to tell them "Hi".

And in case no one told you, this war - and that's what it is - kicked off at 8PM Hawaiian time, 11/3/2020. Much like WWII started for the US the day the Japanese carrier fleet sailed for Honolulu. Not on Dec. 7th.

You are in the battlespace prep phase of things.
Get busy, and start getting your crap in one bag.


Robin Datta said...
Beware the fury of a patient man -Dryden.

Michael said...

Aesop as someone that served in Bosnia during their Ethnic Cleansing as Medical Support I am shuddering.

Yes I know the battle is needed but the "Easy" comments just give me a stomach ache. Yes we have some advantages in sheer numbers of shooters. Yes we can disrupt the power grid and blind their electronic eyes.

But the civilians will suffer horribly. Grid down how long will your hospital be able to do anything useful? In Bosnia they became butcher zones where gangs of armed men came through killing everybody that wasn't "on their side". Later that week the Other side came through to finish the job. Women some as young as 10 were raped many bearing children not of their choice.

How many Medically fragile people will simply die due to loss of the grid? O2 dependents, Diabetics, and so on. Starvation due to loss of food needing refrigeration-freezers, lack of communications and truckers WILLING to drive through danger zones to deliver food and WATER PURIFICATION CHEMICALS. Oh I FORGOT Grid Down so NO Water Purification.

How many days with out sewers and safe water before 3rd world lack of safe water or water AT ALL in many cities like California that PIPES in a HUGE % of their water... and HEALTHY folks DIE OFF? The sickly are already mostly dead.

We have lots of guns yes indeed. But so did the Bosnians and at first small gang leaders ran the areas, to be replaced by better organized Warlords.

We may have guns, we may have people that shoot really good BUT do we have the morals not to become Bosnia X Rwanda with all that anger and firepower?

Oh and BTW HOW DO WE Figure out WHO is the BAD Guys? Who are the Good Guys? We will be killing folks with out a clear targeting information. How will I be able to tell that group of armed men are "GOOD GUYS"? From the Civilian side of a civil war NOBODY Armed is the Good Guys. All will rob and rape you.

China is LAUGHING at the troubles they have created for America. They will follow that age old idea "When your enemy is doing something really stupid DON'T Interrupt them".

Sadly I foresee after the smoking cities are cold and some 60+% of our population is dead China can walk in offering sandwiches, medical aid and smokes and most of the hungry survivors will happily do their bidding. The warlords will be offered the deal of running the US as a Satrap or being hunted down and killed by drones and armored vehicles.

Our Nuclear Triad kept the Chinese honest but during a civil war WHO OWNS those Nukes? Who can order the launch? Who can target them? Let me tell you the DEEP STATE 3 letter agencies have access to these and I suspect they too were Bought by the Chinese as Satraps to run the USA through their bought and paid for disposable Face People the Socialist-Democrats. The Chinese make many paths to victory, If the Deep State and their Disposable Face people can give them America they are happy, less destruction. If we fight and turn the former USA into a smoking mess they still win.

No easy answers. It's going to be as the Chinese say "Interesting Times".

T-Rav said...

SCOTUS has abandoned its constitutional duties and refused to hear the Texas case, leaving us with increasingly few legal means of protecting our right to free and fair elections.

Prep phase, indeed.

Aesop said...

I don't believe I said "Easy" anywhere. What it isn't is insurmountable.
And grid down, nothing stands.


Live by electricity, die by its lack. On your feet.

The alternative is live on your knees.

Ken Prescott said...

"Oh and BTW HOW DO WE Figure out WHO is the BAD Guys? Who are the Good Guys?"

It will split along ethnic, confessional, and socioeconomics. As it always has.

Charlie said...

As far as who are the bad guys. You should have already determined that, for the most part, in your own locale.

Jimmy the Saint said...

@ Ken Prescott: "It will split along ethnic, confessional, and socioeconomics. As it always has. "

It will also split geographically, unless people are very careful in their planning. Even in the reddest/bluest areas of the country, there are significant populations of the other side - outnumbered, yes, but extant. So if FreeFor decides to go a-ravaging in say, Chicago, they're going to end up attacking a considerable number of friendlies, who probably aren't going to decide "Yeah, we'll just take one for the team". It will force allies to join with the enemy just for survival.

Phillip said...

Like many of you, I do not obsess about my longevity. I obsess about that of my children and grandchildren, along with the quality of their lives. THAT'S ultimately the legacy we strive for. We didn't pick this fight; it has been delivered to our doorstep. The cloud of normalcy bias that so many around blithely meander around in will have to be shattered to awaken them to the new reality. They will have to be the frog thrown into boiling water; TPTB prefer to keep them in the sous vide bath. We will lose a few to easy snitches early on, Gladys Kravitz will get smarter and has Leviathan on her side, but we will get craftier as well. The prospect of having your toenails removed prior to being kneecaps and gunshot, left to die, will guarantee it. Godspeed to all.

Tucanae Services said...

"5) There are more hunting licenses just in PA than there are all troops in the US Army.
By 50%."

Best guess is any hunter with 3 or more notches on the gun belt could qualify for rifleman. The upper 15% for sniper.

Tucanae Services said...

"Oh and BTW HOW DO WE Figure out WHO is the BAD Guys?"

Its not even sporty yet. Don't tell me you can't spot 'bad people' stuffing voting machines?

Ye shall know them by their fruits. Do men gather grapes of thorns, or figs of thistles? -- Matthew 7:16

Trumpeter said...

I understand Democrat voter registration lists can be downloaded from your state government.

Michael said...

A history lesson if you please. Applied to current and probable future events later.

General George Washington's best and most trusted friend Benedict Arnold was selected to command a MOST Important Fort. A Job for the Most Reliable and Trusted Commander in the service of the American Revolution.

Why did Benedict Arnold turn traitor? Some history accounts show it was His British Born Wife (But then again EVERYBODY was pretty much British at the time) who said something to the effect "Dear the Revolution is a grand thing and all BUT the DEBT Collectors are at our door threating to take us to Court for debts, stripping us of our home and they DONOT accept the paper promises of the Continental Congress. A mutual friend of ours has an offer you need to listen too, it involves British Sovereign Gold coins, Honor, employment with the Crown and a Full Pardon for your actions to date."

Who is the Bad guys? Who is the Good Guys? IF the British WON Benedict Arnold would be in OUR History Books as a HERO. At that time the French were not fully engaged in OUR Revolution and much was in doubt about our chances to "Win".

Your most trusted friend *might* have a family issue needing something that your Resistance Group cannot provide. Folks you thought reliable *might* NEED food and shelter more than you.

I'm a pretty good judge of character but I've been wrong a few times when the chips were down. I've got the scars to show for my mistakes over the decades. I've been in many *interesting places* in my 20 plus years of military Medical Services. Bosnia still gives me nightmares.

So forgive me if I'm not chanting how excellent a shot I am and all that because I've BEEN at the Bloody End of that Spear and have seen and treated the shattered civilians that get trapped in the crossfire.

BTW Not ALL Democrats are Bad People, some are good neighbors (Ye shall know them by their fruits. Do men gather grapes of thorns, or figs of thistles? -- Matthew 7:16) more trustworthy than some "Patriots" I've met up with.

They *might* be registered Democrats but didn't vote for the Sock Puppet. So are they the "Bad Guys"?

tsquared said...

The National Guard's reputation as second-tier is false. The past 30 years of war the Guard has shown that many of the Guardsmen to be better trained than their active duty counter parts and definitely more motivated. The military training they receive is the same as active duty but they have the added advantage of their civilian jobs.

I saw this when I was in the Air Force, later when I was in the Guard, and as a Army contractor.

Aesop said...


Ask yourself "Who is the good communist?".
Question answered.

At technical jobs, the Guard may be better. (Guard majors with 3000 flt hours definitely beat active duty lieutenants working on their first thousand.)

At combat arms, they're generally far less so.

Matt Bracken said...

Choosing between all the very well described by Michael consequences of a Bosnian-level civil war, and surrendering to slavery, I'll take the civil war. And may the devil take the hindmost. This has been building for many decades, and it has to be sorted out, one way or the other.

Michael said...

Aesop your a influencer friend. There ARE Good Neighbor Registered Democrats that I happen to KNOW voted straight Republican this year. There IS A REASON the Democrats LOST so many seats in Congress. They are just as mad about Antifa and Burn Loot Murder as well as drunken Nancy (as some around here call her)as you and I.

Yet we have cabbage heads on this list saying "Get the State List of Democratic Voters" to ID the "Enemy".

Not ALL Democrats are Communists. If your feeling froggy then look at the Antifa sites, THEY ADVERTISE when and WHERE their next "Action" is. Go for it.

So far no Antifa have fallen to Patriot Actions. Maybe that will change or do we just target "Safe Democratic Voters" instead?

If some cabbage head targets my neighbors they will find out how many of them are very successful hunters. You *might* ambush one but the shots fired WILL get a community response very dangerous to strangers. Bears gotta eat, just last year a known wife beater was "Found" when the winter snow melted. There is a REASON BLM has been SO Polite in NH.

NH Live Free or Die.

Unknown said...

Local,local,local. AO. Commie scumbag shitpot fuckhead list. Vlad the Impaler handbook. Hundred Heads policy. Backhoe. Where is the problem...lack of testicular fortitude? Get the hell out of the way or die. Not complicated once you get past the smell. Winning beats the shit out of losing. Quit your fucking whining and get to work.

Michael said...

Matt while I respect you brother I know your thoughts will be different when it's YOUR Daughter or Grand Daughter ripped apart by savages. Vengeance sounds so cool behind the keyboard, not so much in the years you and She will REMEMBER it.

You and I have killed and destroyed families in FAR AWAY places to come Home to peace and arguments about CNN. That is not going to be the case with Hell On Earth dropping by for Tea in your homes.

While I may have been medical and thus saw the ongoing results of our soldiers actions well after they went back to base for Bud Lites I too have killed. Keyboard hero's that use words like Where is the problem...lack of testicular fortitude? have not made the hostage shot I had to make nor saw the burned out village I called the air strike on.

I will defend my AO from the savages even the ones who think themselves Patriots while reading a list of Registered Democrats as they select their next "Commie Target".

I know my targets in my AO. They will not do well in the coming troubles. I sadly look at a lot of keyboard hero's as probable targets who better figure out how to PROVE themselves the Good Guys before my 3 little muscles softly squeeze that trigger. I have the backing of several good neighbors that shoot regularly at my cowboy action range with shoot, No Shoot and Hostage Targets. Some of them are registered Democrats that happen to have voted solid Republican this year as well as the last Presidential Election. Some of the hate what the Progressive Democrat Leadership has become. But they don't see the RINO infested Republican Party much different.

That's why this "Little Coward" some seem to think I am because I bring the real face of war to the knife to the hilt and to YOUR FAMILIES asks How do you Know the Good Guys from the Bad Guys.

Jackal said...


Michael said...

Better have a lot of Food put away as it's the prime tool of Communists to control populations. Anybody remember the The Holodomor (Ukrainian: Голодомо́р, romanized: Holodomór;[2] derived from морити голодом, moryty holodom, 'to kill by starvation'),[a][3][4][5] also known as the Terror-Famine[6][7][8] and sometimes referred to as the Great Famine,[9] was a famine in Soviet Ukraine from 1932 to 1933 that killed millions of Ukrainians. The term Holodomor emphasises the famine's man-made and intentional aspects such as rejection of outside aid, confiscation of all household foodstuffs and restriction of population movement?

NOTE the INTENTIONAL Man Made Famine that murdered millions? Aside from the stealing of farmers lands to GIVE to their Supporters (Ahem Black Farmers Initiative anybody?) and thus the total failure to be productive farm lands.

Grid Power is a two edged sword for the Communists. They can cut that off but their propaganda fails. Their electronic eyes fail. But an effective way to PUNISH wayward uncontrollable zones with loss of so many systems like water pumping, sewage processing (HEY 3rd World Bad Water deaths and sicknesses...) loss of medically needed support (Hospital with out power is a graveyard) lack of communication...

As that old Motown song says "Get ready 'cause here it comes"