Wednesday, December 23, 2020

No, Actually, Not So Much


© Angus

Angus, who - regardless of what he may think of us, if he does at all - has been a diligent scribe of the ongoing COVIDiation in FL throughout this mess, has posted an infographic, above.

His post title is We're Doing OK. Hence the title of our post.

Well, maybe for some values of "OK", but nothing I would brag upon.

Here's a better infographic, if we do say so ourself:

© Aesop

We post our notes here, because while this is no slight on Angus (despite his previous belief that we were being rude, however much we might push the envelope), towards whom we mean no disrespect to him in any way, in general, nor in regard to this post, we doubt he'd have been inclined to give us the benefit of the doubt.

But facts, as we noted by our infographic, are stubborn things.

If Florida had maintained no increase in hospitalizations, they'd be "doing okay". If they'd decreased the rate until they had none at all, that would've been spectacular. What Angus' graph indicates is that Florida is merely being less stupid than such egregious Blue Hive-governed hellhole examples as NYFS, ILlin' Noise, Joizy, or our own homeland of Califrutopia. In short, they're just doing better only to the extent that they're not even going to qualify for the Bronze Medal in the Fickle Finger Of Fate Kung Flu Sweepstakes (What's fifth, after Brass? Aluminum? Tin? IDK.)

And while they only have the third highest population out of 50 possible there in FL, with an inordinate number of elderly - such that the nickname for the state is already "God's Waiting Room" - I must, FTR, point out that they underperformed so, absent the handicaps of 

a) some 18M extra souls compared to Califrutopia, (one can only shudder at the thought of adding NY's entire pop. to Florida, and the ensuing results in any estimation, but we're pretty sure trumpets sound in the clouds at that point, and Four Horsemen arrive...)

b) including at least 5M+ illegal aliens, so far,

c) a homeless population comprised, overwhelmingly, of exactly the tens of thousands of toothless, banjo-playing kinfolk y'all have shipped here by the busload (I've seen their Greyhound and Amtrak vouchers, and their Social Security numbers, so I know to a metaphysical certainty where they actually came from), which I point out repeatedly despite the cries of butthurt from people who think this last fact is some slur on Appalachia, rather than on your actual kinfolk, and

d) probably the actual stupidest chief executive in any state capitol in the country, were an IQ test-off to be administered.

So yes, compared to the herculean stupidity going on elsewhere, FL, far from doing "OK", is actually pretty screwed, just not quite as screwed.

But the rate is "per million", so despite all those old folks in FL, Califrutopia has managed to surpass all bare statistical expectations, tell all the other states "Hold my beer!", and surge to new heights even Killer Coumo (D-Five Families) couldn't reach back in April and May. Atta Boy, Gabbin' Nuisance! Here's your prize!

And he won it fair and square, no cheating!

It would be even more interesting (to me, anyway) to post the bottom 5 states on that graph as well, but like as not it'll be states like AK, WY, Montana, and the Dakotas, all blessed with more livestock than residents (thus having more actual horses in each than they have two-legged horses' asses), and probably largely unscathed by the virus in general, outside a few hotspots.

So that makes Angus' assessment rather like Arkansas bragging on their literacy scores, when compared to such intellectual powerhouse states as Mississippi and Alabama, and rings similarly hollow.

Sorry if that stings a little, Florida, but there it is. Keep trying though. I wouldn't wish this plague on anyone, and I hope you, and we, can all turn it around soon. Personally, I was over this last April.


Borepatch said...

What would be very interesting indeed is to see a breakdown of Covid hospitalizations by age range:

Under 60
80 and over

From what I am seeing here on the ground, Florida is doing pretty well. The hospitalizations among my neighbors (it's quite interesting to be the youngest guy around, by rather a lot) are for broken hips, heart attacks, and the other such preditors on the elderly. While the plural of "anecdote" is not "data", there simply is not a lot of talk about elderly Covid victims.

I'm not sure quite why. Certainly better state policies, but maybe nicer weather lets people be outdoors more and get vitamin D. Of course, you can do that in California as well.

Net/net, it sure looks from my front porch that Florida is doing OK. Your mileage may vary, void where prohibited, do not remove tag under penalty of law.

Aesop said...

Noting that the graphic corrects for population, Florida is doing twice as bad as it was, while California is doing 4-5 times as bad as it was.

July and August, for us, was largely free of COVID patients in the ED.
That, amidst the acknowledged hottest spot in the county for Kung Flu cases.

What we're paying for now is the opening up for school in mid-late September, and Halloween idiocies.
We have been hip-deep in really sick COVID patients nightly for the last month, as that curve might indicate, with 70% of all beds in our ED being designated for COVID or COVID rule-out cases.
It's as bad in most of the rest of the state west of the Sierras, and it's far worse in L.A. County.
We have had to put extra beds in hallways (with no additional nursing staff to assume care for them) just to keep our heads above water, for the time being.

And the county here has told us "there is no more Diversion", meaning ambulances, instead of avoiding hospitals with no beds left, will now just keep packing them down our throats, regardless of patient outcome, severity of complaint, or number of people who die in the parking lot while they're waiting to unload. Geniuses, I tell ya.
Top. Men.

If we lose any half-dozen staff members to an actual infection, we're done.
People are going to start calling off sick in self-defense, and then it's over.

If TPTB had set up COVID-only collection field hospitals in stadium parking lots and convention centers in the county(counties), as I suggested both here and at work in February, and staffed them with PHS and .Mil medical providers, we could have treated this entire thing, top to bottom, as a minor hiccup.

They'll probably start thinking about that, once people start dying in ambulances waiting to get in, or in their cars in the parking lot, but not until.

I'm pretty sure anyone with an IQ over 85 is disqualified from either government health services or hospital administration, even if their parents weren't married, but that's anecdotally based on only 25 years in the biz.

Nick Flandrey said...

Anecdotally, I have a whole bunch more 1 and 2 degree of separation Covid + acquaintances than I did at any point in time before this.

Even a hospital administrator, who for 9 months managed to stay cv free brought it home to his wife last month.

Cases in the real world are up dramatically, and I will say that without making reference to any official numbers.

Most of the cases I personally know of resolved well. One elderly relation, already sick in a care home died. Almost everyone else recovered, the exception was 42yo, but very fat and probably had a list of other conditions related to that.

Most of these were in Texas, but not all.

Of course ymmv.


Great Scott said...

I'm in Florida as well and we seem to be doing ok. I believe we have one of the best Governor's.
Try and stay calm and enjoy the Holidays.

Charlie said...

I have a sis-in-law in Tampa. Ashtma, bit overweight but in no way obese. Her, my brother and 18 year old niece all hit positive. They fine, she in hospital 2 weeks, icu 1 week, changed hospital to more kung flu focused. Tested neg, still pneumonia in both lungs. Induced coma for intubation, trach a few days ago.

No idea how it will turn out. She is 58 or so, brother is 60.

Other then that, I know no one who has tested pos for kung flu.

Unknown said...

Thank God for Ron DeSantis. He is the best Gov Florida has ever had

Unknownsailor said...

I've been tracking North Dakota for months now, as I plan on moving there, and they are definitely on the down side of a hump. Their high was just a tick over 1k new cases the middle of November, and now they are under 300. In WA state where I am living now, we've seen a spike, but not a large one, and we're on the down side of the curve.

I use covidtracking dot com for my data.

GMay said...

Given that the CDC recommended, nay, nigh on mandated to wait until you experience trouble breathing before seeking professional medical care, it's no wonder we're marveling at this modern day clusterfark.

The vast, statistically overwhelming, gobsmacking majority of people (including my 20 y/o son in FL) recover from this after experiencing only minor symptoms. There are tons of medically viable recommendations involving a variety of readily available prescription meds and OTC supplements that have an extraordinary track record in preventing COVID cases from getting wheeled down to the morgue.

But nah, the powers-that-be had to put everyone - including primary care providers around the country - in pant-shitting, office-closing mode. Providers could have been prescribing low-dose, readily available antibiotics to people who were mildly symptomatic and supplemented with the usual stuff everyone's heard of by now, or variations of the drug all the Proper Medical Journals™ said was going to kill everyone that even dare uttered its name (which, of course they later retracted and are busily scrubbing the public record of).

Bottom line is, the data - shitty though it may be - is in, and mitigating the Chinese Lung Aids has neither jack nor squat to do with masks, or social distancing, or quarantining healthy people with asymptomatic carriers; and it has everything to do with treating carriers early and properly, contrary to everything the gubmint has said.

Do that last bit, and there's no need for MASH units decorating the countryside.

As for FL vs CA, and, well, anywhere else? I'm gonna go ahead and say that FL having the highest proportion of people in the highest risk group for COVID (CA 6th from the bottom) pretty much dwarfs the statistically insignificant "handicaps" listed for CA. It's not really useful to have any sort of remote expectation that a novel coronavirus is gonna follow the hypothetical trend lines of "This would be ok" and "This would be spectacular". Relatively speaking, with the variables I just mentioned? So yeah, FL is actually doing okay. Their rise in cases looks WAY more manageable than those precious Blue States which love their Science on a more sexual level.

carolinaTURTLE said...

2 negative tests (May & July) Also in July, 2 roommates (+ 1 couch-surfer) all had it pretty bad, so theoretically, that was my exposure experience. And then yesterday, i drove my 16 y/o step daughter to a rapid test center. Her test came back positive. My location: Des Moines, iowa. Q: do you concur that most people might experience re-infection with the same virus at some later point?