Thursday, March 11, 2021

Kung Flu: One Year Retrospective


We were going to use an exchange between ourself and some online Three Stooges to illustrate where we are and why, but in what's sure to be a disappointment to Larry and the two Darryls,

pity has stayed our hand, and we have elected not to beat the retarded kids here, and to skip their nonsense, as it's become apparent they don't know what they don't know about what they're opining, speaking as they do from a bottomless abyss of total ignorance about the entire subject matter. But if you would see the state of the average cretin's grasp of science, medicine, and mathematics, let alone basic logic, you can head over to Mike's Cold Fury blog, and read the comments in this thread. I warn you, it's 10 minutes you'll never get back, and reading their twaddle will probably lower your IQ almost enough to vote Democrat, but I don't want them deprived of the attention their trolling and idiocy richly deserves. Reason #27 why I moderate comments here is to keep house trolls like this out of the pool. Because they can't read the signs that say "Don't sh*t in the pool." So they do that.

Instead, let's look at what I told you then, and see where we are now.

First Take

The funny part for me is comparing that, which I actually said, and comparing it to what uninformed jackasses think I'm saying when I explain in blistering detail that masks work, but people are idiots.

Zero defects, save one.

At the time, I looked at the then-unpolluted numbers for coronavirus fatality, which ranged from 1% up to 5%, so I went with the worst-case numbers rather than downplay things.

Later, I settled on 3%, as it split the difference between the published extremes of 1% and 5%, which seemed reasonable with an hitherto unknown virus, and quite possibly one genetically engineered by ChiCom biowar labs.

It turns out, it's closer to 2% than 3%, most places (though a couple of them have come pretty close to 3%, even now). To be as precise as I'm going to be, 1.775%, on average, in the U.S., is the average CFR - Case Fatality Rate. I.e. how many people who get it will die as a direct consequence. 

And, as I frequently require of others, I'll show my work.

I took Johns Hopkins' numbers for COVID cases and deaths, primarily because of ease of access, and because they're not @$$clown Fauci, nor the politically-compromised jackholes at the CDC. They're by actual medical and statistical professionals, rather than dipshits who've failed upwards for an entire career, and thus a bit more beholden on their accuracy and reputations when they put data out there. You got a better idea, lay it on me.

So, I took the 14 worst-hit states, and the ten least hit ones.

I then took their guesstimated populations (because the 2020 census isn't completely processed, nor, likely as accurate as years past). I divided their total cases in that population to get the actual rate of COVID infection. Some will bitch that those number have been polluted by false positives. Fair enough. However, I would point out they're also polluted by the lack of asymptomatic carriers never added to those numbers, who never got tested because they never got symptoms. And I'm going on the theory that one cancels out the other, leaving the status quo.

That gets us the following rates of infection and rates of fatality, by state (plus D.C.) from most (numerically) infected states (Top 14) to least (Bottom 10):

We're smart, but lazy. So if your state is somewhere in the middle 27 we didn't bother with (which we figure won't deviate notably from what we found with the 24 we did do), and not listed above, do it yourself. 'tain't that hard.

Also, that overall is an average of only the 24 listed, above. 

Full mathemagical disclosure: I didn't population-weight CA's 1.5% at being worth 39 times what MT's 1.4% is. If you want moon landing precision, do it your own damned self. I doubt the actual, dead-on balls accurate percentage will vary enough to make a difference in the grand scheme of things, but any weaponized autists are free to work it out to the last decimal place, and correct me in Comments.

This table tells us several things.

First and foremost, Kung Flu has not, by and large, penetrated anywhere beyond about 10% of the populace in the U.S. (ND, TN, and AZ are the notable over-achievers there.) Early on, with a lack of tests, there was concern that some places were oversampled, undersampled, etc. When CA, for but one example, with nearly 40M people, has had 50M tests, that's not an issue at this point.

So if you still want ten times as many people dead, by all means, spread it to the other 90% of the country who hasn't gotten it yet, before vaccinations are widely distributed. (That'd be 5M dead total instead of 500K, for Common Core math grads.) As just the 10% numbers nearly crashed at least two major metro areas completely in medical terms, we do not advise that.

And also, because we're not a selfish Gilligan, nor a ghoul. YMMV.

FTR, once again, a baaaaaaaaad  flu year any time for the last century is 80,000 dead *(SWAGuesstimated by the CDC), and annual flu has a CFR of 0.1%, since ever, other than the Spanish Flu of 1918. So that makes the lethality of Kung Flu between 5 and 29 times worse than annual flu. Period.

We have comfortably eclipsed anyone tongue-swabbing the notion that this is "just the flu, bro." Well, except for irremediably total retards.

Secondly, the biggest fuck-ups in terms of how much this spread are actually North Dakota, Tennessee, and Arizona. By a country mile. Sorry campers, but it ain't mainly Dumbocrats that're the biggest problem when it comes to pressure-washing the vomit. And FL and TX did worse than NYFS and CA, in terms of seeing that a greater percentage of people get infected. Bullshitters with an agenda lie. The numbers don't. The best states (of those I examined) at containing it were Hawaii, Vermont, and Maine. I think that has more to do with sunshine killing the virus, or cold weather keeping people apart, more than anything else, coupled with low exposure to it to begin with. But the idea that North Dakota did six times worse than Hawaii should duly embarrass the clowns nominally running things in Bismarck, and despite the low pop. density, waiting until November to institute public masking and other measures was demonstrably asinine. The only good news there is they were stupid in one of the least-populated states in the country, so the total damage was contained by happenstance, rather than design.

Thirdly, where it comes down to killing people most of all, NJ, NYFS, and PA lead the dumbass parade of highest percentage of victims killed. Partly, that has to do with shoving the sick in amongst the most vulnerable by forcing nursing homes to accept known COVID+ patients, and partly it has to do with healthcare resources in those states being overwhelmed in those high-population states at the height of the crisis, which always leads to poor outcomes.

Exactly as we dun tole 'ya it would.

And AK's current CFR of 0.5% is downright phenomenal. How'd they do it? Low numbers overall, coupled with enough hospital capacity for those cases, and some generally hardier and healthier people, if I had to guess.

Which is why not letting the outbreak overwhelm that capacity is still a thing, and will be until vaccinations are widespread in the population, for anyone who wants one.

And nota bene: the seriously ill who haven't died, have a host of sequellae that result from weeks of double pneumonia, intubation, disseminated coagulopathy in major organs, etc., so the number of people killed by Kung Flu is going to be like a strike in a bowling game: i.e. it's going to be counted for the next several frames, and this year's pandemic is going to kill people over the next several years, because of damage to their body, and inability to cope with more minor things they would have otherwise survived, had COVID 19 not torn them a new one this year. It's going to be the Agent Orange of viruses, and people have only begun dying from it, not finished, even if we vaccinated 100% of the population tomorrow.

But, as warned, the follow-on effects have been hugely more troubling that this virus, per se.

Unemployment. Lack of anything in the bank account. Death of entire industries and economic sectors, with no end in sight. The prospect of skyrocketing inflation any minute. And/or the collapse of the dollar, the stock market, and pretty much anything that needs money to make it run.

That's before COVID served as the pretext for rolling out the shenanigans that outright stole the re-election of the most popular president in a century while everyone was watching it happen, then doing the same thing again with the Senate, turning the now-dead republic into a banana republic, and slamming the reins of government so hard to the Left it has nearly killed the horse. And they're just warming up!

Then an imperial presidency by a fraudulently installed poser, fortifying the capitol lest the peasants revolt, a diarrhea stream of executive orders, setting military readiness on fire, churning out fiatbux backed by airballs three shifts a day at warp speed, and setting the country up for the greatest financial collapse the world has ever seen.

All while greasing the skids for total gun control, thought policing, and a Final Solution to the Conservative problem, complete with trains and re-education camps, after painting half the country as would-be terrorists in great need of rounding up.

Yeah, we sure missed warning you about all of that.

Wait...not so much. Pretty much been beating that drum all year long.

And now we know why smart people told us to familiarize ourselves with The Rise And Fall Of The Third Reich , because watching the @$$clown PTB do a massive scripted do-over of the whole thing reminds one of Yogi Berra's brilliant observation: "It's like deja vu all over again."

As CA says at WRSA: "This is where we are. Imagine where we'll be."

Best wishes to you as you deal with each fresh hell this coming year. These are "the Good Old Days". It only gets worse from here on out, and anything to the contrary will be a simulacrum of normalcy, and the deep breath before the plunge.


Cederq said...

Yes, fresh hells, actually recycled hells, cholera, typhoid, yellow fever, methicillin resistant tuberculosis, ague, anasarca, meningitis, diphtheria, dysentery, enterocolitis, polio, lues venera, tussis convulsiva well, you, Aesop, gets the picture... the rest? They know what they don't know, all the old diseases we thought were eradicated and gone are only holding up someplace to burst forth and plague us as this country descends into chaos and Hunger Games. Fresh hells? Who the hell knows what our friends have cooked up in bio labs.

Henry Cybulski said...

I've had skirmishes with these vermin before, first at Daily Pundit and then at Cold Fury.

The following, FWIW, is an edited and expanded version of something I wrote about Barry (and kennycan in conclusion) on a different Cold Fury comment thread:

Barry thinks he is the most knowleable person around.

Question that premise and the insults sail forth from his spittle-flecked lips.

He won't entertain any opposing arguments unless they are from someone that doesn't push back too hard.
(As an aside, he previously insulted and belittled Skeptic over some matter, but now they are the best of buds because they are in alignment re their early Covid “prognostications”.

He won't accept any facts that run counter to his narrative and spews venom in response.

He is a commenting junkie.

He always has to get in the last word, even if it's just to basically repeat something he said previously.

And now for kennycan: he has his nose so far up Barry's butt that they have become one and the same brain-dead organism.

kurt9 said...

So, the Wuhan Bug is comparable to the Spanish Flu in lethality. That sounds about right.

I have also heard that obesity is an even bigger risk factor than age for COVID-19 infection, and we have many obese people in North America these days.

Aesop said...


Yeah, after a couple of go-arounds it was clear that if it's not actually the same 11-yr old Special Ed/Asperger's kid, it's three of them.

Other than a functional brain and a basic grasp on logic, there's not much any of them lack.

Aesop said...


Not quite as bad, yet, except in terms of raw numbers (500,000 dead now vs 675,000 dead then).
But that's with a U.S. population of 330M now, vs. 103M in 1918.

So it appears to be about 1/3 as bad now as the Spanish Flu was, and 6-7 times worse than a bad bout of annual flu, ever. So far.

I haven't found either a case count nor a guesstimated CFR for Spanish Flu, so we'll never really know.

Ropro said...

For what it is worth, here is a positive COVID story.
I had a 93 year old patient come in to the ER with COVID pneumonia and the associated hypoxia. He took all the COVID precautions but his daughter brought it to him from the party she had where everyone exchanged pleasantries and apparently The Rona. She was obviously heartbroken and full of guilt. I assured her that my patient's don't die from COVID. Three days later he had to be placed on BiPAP. She came quickly to bedside (she's a local Hospice RN, so was allowed in) and insisted on withdrawal of care and to make him CMO. I asked her to trust me, and that we should continue with the current treatment plan, as again, my patients don't die from COVID. She decided to trust me.
Two weeks later, I called her to give an update on her husband's progress (she gave it to him too.) As I finished with the good news about her husband's recovery, she started to cry and thanked me for preventing her from making "an awful mistake" with her dad. She literally said "he's here at my house today and just made me a sandwich for lunch!"

Aesop said...

That's why we don't quit. We do what we do, and it isn't up to us who lives, and who dies. It's nice when we win one.

SFTOBEY said...

Aesop: If you think last years' Who-Flung-Poo virus numbers were bad, take a good look at what is now stampeding through our southern border. Many of these people are infected; and they're being allowed to go all over the country.

Aesop said...

TPTB had to let in the infected hordes.

This thing is dying out on its own, like pandemics do, and they need another wave of real infections like we had Thanksgiving-MLK to whip up real bodies and fresh hysteria, to prepare the battlefield for their next round of draconian plans.

The pushback that got them to change post-vaxx rules and loosen them towards previous common sense reality shows how weak they are, which is why they have to double down on stupid, otherwise they risk everyone going back to being all prosperous, happy, and Trumpy.

And we can't be having any of that.

Xoph said...

I'm a mathematician, not a health care worker. You can trend CDC data back over many years and see things like cancer kill more people in December than July. Every major disease has a winter peak and summer slump. The COVID figures are following the same pattern.

Interesting math and choice of data. For what its worth it fits my anecdotal experience. I'm a big believer in asking, Does this make sense? So much of the CDC data hasn't fit what I see (I'm outside a major metropolitan area). Also Kudos for addressing the issue: is the harm we are doing to ourselves via shutting down our economy worth it? Especially now that we better understand how to treat COVID and who is at risk. It bothers me that we are making sure my daughter and I are unemployed in order to keep my mom uninfected. We are doing way more long term harm.

Interestingly enough, if your numbers are accurate they are more scary than the CDC numbers. That is your number tell the story that the pandemic measures work and we have greatly slowed a virus that still has about 4.5 million more to kill. There is a lot more merit in this narrative to keeping pandemic measures in place than the current narrative. Of course, if you follow the science, then you hear mostly BS - sorry but some much of the data is contradictory that not all of it can be right. There is a lot of competing information colored by politics. How many asymptomatic carriers are out there? How many people have T-cell immunity and don't need a vaccine? Can you catch COVID multiple times? (yes). Why are people who have had COVID still getting sick from the vaccine and why require them to take the vaccine? How many people are needed to have been infected and vaccinated to provide herd immunity? How important is vitamin D, should we be encouraging people to get outside? How big a risk factor are obesity and diabetes? Should we be working with people to lose weight and exercise? Maybe we should mandate walking outside 5 miles a day and giving up sugar as opposed to face masks. Do the PCR tests really meet our needs or should we shift to saliva testing (See Dr. Mina)? Do the Math protocols work well enough to allow a loosening of the restrictions for people under 20, 30, 40, 50, 60...?

I'm fine with not knowing today the things we will understand in 20 years when we have hindsight. The point is there is so much BS info fueled by political beliefs (or is that dictats?) that knowing the truth is almost impossible. However, it is easy to see the manipulation. We are no longer the land of the brave, we cower behind our masks. We have before us the decision of how to take the least bad option. Do we sacrifice the future of our children and our nation to protect our parents? Not allowing family to visit an aging grand parent or great grand in a home is cruel and unusual punishment. We can't even have this discussion and we can't even get good information to have an intelligent debate.

And as you alluded to, if we destroy our economy how will we afford health care for anyone? Sorry but I think this is a rhetorical question. I think the powers that be want to destroy the economy, punish the deplorables. Put them out of work and dependent on the government and then deny them help. The easiest way to manipulate people is to make them think they are doing a good thing (The road to hell is paved with good intentions). COVID is being weaponized against the average American citizen. And for those of you who object at the word weaponized, it doesn't matter if the driver is drunk or homicidal - when the car is coming for you get out of the way.

What can we do? First respect those around us - wash your hands and stay home if you are sick. Start asking questions that politicians don't want asked? What are we learning from contact tracing? How do we take care of the elderly without hurting the young? Ask this of your friends and neighbors.

Boone said...

So North Dakota can get to herd immunity soon without a large number getting seriously sick or dying? That sounds like a winning strategy to me. Meanwhile PA, NY, NJ, and MI (hmm wonder what those states have in common) have killed a vastly higher number of infected and are nowhere near herd immunity.

Aesop said...

Everything that happens in North Dakota is "without a large number of people" in a state whose human population is eclipsed by both that of Rhode Island, and the number of farm animals in almost any county in Iowa.

If what ND did were replicated in NY and NJ, those states would have killed 30-50% more people.

And to date, "herd immunity" may be a myth as the disease mutates. AFAIK, no one has demonstrated that getting the original strain will help with the follow-ons, but I've already seen people serially infected by the original strain.

So all ND and its populace are doing is being 6 times dumber Covidiots than in Hawaii, and twice dumber Covidiots than Michigan.

This is not a goal for which to strive.