Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Mafz Iz Hard Dept.

If you're going to pitch softballs, and hang them right over the plate, I'm going to swing on them:
"I must have been out in the parking lot smoking during class. I admit it.

Idaho, Utah and Wyoming. 5.5 million people. 4100 cases. 60 Deaths.

Why doesn't this terrify me?"
1) Depends on what you were smoking during your break.

2) No one hereabouts ever suggested you be terrified. Mature common sense is another matter.

3) Do you imagine the virus infects differently in small populations?

4) Or is it that you think the Great Basin is magically immune from infection and death? Do you have evidence that in Sheridan, Ogden, or Coeur d'Alene, this won't kill anyone? Show your work.

5) Is it barely possible, do you suppose, that spreading those 5.5M people over 266,283 Mi² (versus the 18M people just in NYFCs 302 mi²), in the states ranked 10, 13, and 14 overall in terms of size among 50 U.S. states, might have had some wee effect on the relative severity of case outbreak in the respective locales referenced? (We may be misinformed, but when last we looked, it was noted that there are more sheep than people in WY, for but one example.) I'm not positive, but I'm going to go with the concept that spreading only 1/3 as many people as in NYFC over an area 881 times as vast  (hmmm..."social distancing"?) might rather handily explain a lot of what you observe. (21 persons/mi² vs. 59,603 persons/ mi².?) Discuss.

6) The entire US "only" had 4000 cases by mid-March. A lot of people - many who should have known better - didn't think much of it then, either.'d that work out for us?

Just wondering, but a suggestion would be to submit to urinalysis to determine the cause of any possible malfunction.

If that comment was meant to mock people that dense, I'm sorry for them. If you were seriously suggesting anything close to it yourself, I'm sorry for you.


Crew said...

It's not clear this guy is correct, but:

Top Israeli prof claims simple stats show virus plays itself out after 70 days

The Mad Irishman said...

I'm not trying to be confrontational but as of 2018 NYFC had an estimated population of 8.399 million people not 18 million. NY state was 19.45 million as of 2019. Go ahead and be a dick to me I have thick skin, I just wanted to put the correction out there. Please keep putting out the word just watch the numbers.

Range Master said...

My point being that if 5 is true why are we "all" locking down? (being terrified? or terrorized?)

One size fits all is not supported.

I fixed a head gate on an irrigation ditch 14 miles from my home Saturday. Didn't see a soul. According to the Governor, the State Health Department, the media (and you?) I'm not following protocol. Is that mature common sense? If that makes sense to you what you have been smokin is definitely better than what I've got.

Send seeds. I grow stuff.

T said...

Hey Aesop,

Does this mean you now have a "target rich environment" for shooting practice? LOL.....

Aesop said...

@Range Master,

If a rancher has 200 acres, and never leaves his property, he is self quarantining.

The idiots who harass people for being in their back yard ‡ common sense just because badge. If anyone's back yard is a quarter acre, or a quarter section, or more, God love 'em.

Locking down, at that point, is locking the gate to the county road. Not hiding in your closet. This isn't hard, except, apparently, for law enforcement agencies who've been screening out intelligent applicants for decades, and politicians elected by morons for eons.

If your protocol doesn't recognize what you did and what I said is common sense, it was drafted by assholes with shit for brains. That, and quarantine, are not the same thing.

Aesop said...

@Mad Irishman,

Why would I be a dick, just because?
The pop. number I pulled from was evidently the NYFC metro area, not just the census numbers of city limits of the 5 boroughs.

The city population of the city itself is listed, indeed, at about 9M other places.

The L.A. metro pop is listed at 12M, whereas the city population is officially only about 4M.

Living in SoCal, the metro area population is far more representative of living reality than the census figures within city limits for most purposes, including this one, and I assume the same is true of the greater NYFC area, even if someone is across the line in Joisy, Long I., or Westchester County. No confusion or misdirection was intended nor implied.

Bee Ess said...

Fucks sake. Latest Chris Martensen video citing evidence about the actual damage of this disease. Serious damage to:
- Heart
- Kidney
- Intestines
- Liver
Additional neurological malfunction.
14-30% of people requiring ICU end up needing dialysis or continuous renal replacement therapy. Hospitals starting to run low on sterile fluids for the above treatments.
WTF, i'm not even half way through tonight's video.

If you're not watching this guy, you're missing a LOT.

James M Dakin said...

A small point. Most of the Great Basin is in Nevada ( not mentioned ). And while maps differ, I think including Wyoming is a real stretch. Even the broadest brush only calls a very narrow sliver as being in Wyoming. But those maps also go east of Salt Lake too far ( in my opinion ) and too fat west into California. Forgive me if that is too close to debating the number of angels on the head of a pin. Living in northeast Nevada, this is something I've tried to study

Allen said...

You know when you look at those pretty maps showing the cases in your earlier post you can almost spot where the cities are. Those big red circles are sort of a tell though. I sure do wonder why that is, but then I'm still trying to figure out why we have so few cases in this region of California. Perhaps it's that 2 people per square mile thing around these parts. FFS.

It's Gilligans all the way down, we are doomed, one way or the other.

T said...

More indications of why the data may be farked.

Ominous Cowherd said...

Aesop, what percent of tests in CA are coming back positive?

I think I remember reading that around 30% of the NY tests are positive.

In Alaska, we have had just over 3% of the tests given turn out positive. In Alaska, we still are getting about a dozen new cases a day, same as it's been for weeks. It hasn't gone exponential here, yet. Population close to 800,000, 8,000+ tests, under 300 total cases. More than half our population is in or near our one big city.

I'm starting to think that widespread testing is a huge part of containment, and will shrink the area under the curve, rather than merely delaying the time when everyone gets it. I'm also starting to think that percent of positive tests is going to correlate pretty strongly with rate of spread, total cases and percent of bad outcomes. No surprises in any of that, of course.

The Freeholder said...

Where I live in NC isn't rural, at least not in terms of the US West. However, we are not in any sort of major metro area-about an hour from the closets one. In that metro area (Charlotte), everything is shutting down and the sheep are nervous. This is with good reason-too many of their fellow sheep aren't taking this seriously and the numbers, while not NYC ugly, are ugly and getting worse.

Around here, we have exactly the same rules in a county with, as of this morning, 90 confirmed cases, 2 deaths and 59 recovered. (Last I checked, 9 of 100 counties have no confirmed cases.) People here are, in large part, taking things seriously. Very few folks want to get up in your 6' personal distancing space any longer, for example. Hands are getting washed. Masks are being worn by more and more in public. Opens stores have put up plexiglass partitions and are disinfecting doors, counters, credit card machines, buggies and most things that can be effectively disinfected. Grocery stores have never been so clean.

I don't know if the precautions, government rules, lower population density or a beneficent God is what is making the difference here. I'm just glad something is.

Anonymous said...

Mafz is really hard for the CDC. Seems they're now including "probable deaths" in the total Covid-19 death toll.

Are you fucking kidding me?
I was curious why there was a sudden spike in deaths over the last few days.

So, we basically now have absolutely NO IDEA how many people have died from this thing because of Covid-19, whether it was a comorbidity in and of itself with just a small sprinkling of flu, whether it was a fucking drive by shooting, or whether this has all been a load of scaremongering bullshit from the start.
We are now back to the "knowing absolutely NOTHING for sure" territory that we were in back in early February.

All of the numbers are now suspect and tainted and CANNOT BE TRUSTED.

Ominous Cowherd said...

All of the numbers are now suspect and tainted and CANNOT BE TRUSTED.
The Left has realized that this is a weapon they can wield against Trump and America. They are going to maximize the panic for as long as possible. Yes, the disease is real, and yes, they are lying about it.