|o/~ One of these things is not like the other... o/~|
Go ahead, budding Einsteins: You decide which model seems wisest to you, at this point.
Kung Flu response: so simple, a cave man could do it.
Hell, CA Gov. Gabbin' Nuisance is a certified moron, but compared to NYFS Gov. Cuomo (D-Five Families) he's Stephen F**king Hawking compared to Gilligan. Because for once in his mostly useless life, he listened to smarter people (and to be honest, in Nuisance's case, that would be all of them), and did the right thing, when it really mattered. Cuomo, by all accounts, has never done the right thing, or listened to smarter people ever, on anything.
And to be totally full-disclosure fair here, the one place in Califrutopia where it's blowing up - L.A., I'm looking at you - it's exactly because people there are being NYFC levels of stupid, grouping together, ignoring quarantine guidelines, and doing the exact same dumbfuckery that made NYFC the COVID Capitol of the World.
And from Comments:
"CNN mentioned assumptions of studies in an article from today (drudge linked): https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/health/ihme-updated-covid19-model/index.html
"But the newest version of the model underscores just how important social distancing continues to be: It assumes that those measures -- such as closing schools and businesses -- will continue until August, and it still predicts tens of thousands of deaths."August is SIX GD Months of economic shutdown! Much more at the link." -RSR
I appreciate the summary of IMHE's assumptions, something no one with a megaphone on the Internet is talking about, even as they plan to get the beaches in Amity re-opened just in time for the 4th of July. It sux that they can't figure it out, while even CNN couched their report in that reality. When CNN scoops you, it's time for some loudmouths to sit down.
There's nothing wrong with IMHE's inherent predictive casualty analysis on that basis, but as usual, the Short-Bus Short-Attention-Span Jackholes don't pay attention to such niggling details, they just think they can cut straight to the conclusion page, and sound like Harvard MD post-doctoral fellows.
I still think they're smoking pure, straight hopeium in opining that this magically fades away in a couple of weeks, though.
There's still no empirical basis for suspecting that out loud, other than blind hope. That's throwing darts at the prediction board, not science.
But it's entirely possible that, like crime, this is driven by the actions of the fractional number of dumbest dumbass Gilligans in society, and once you cull the stupidest few thousand, like in NYFC, that - exactly like the Three Strikes laws - once those assholes are winnowed out of the general population, the trend spikes downward like a crashing Space Shuttle, largely for the same reasons: stupidity and arrogance meet reality and end up in the same smoking hole of hubris.
On that basis, this may indeed peak shortly, but we'll only know that after it does.
People should buckle down, STFU, and wait and see.
Oh, and for the "lift the lockdowns now!" crowd:
And since when do we listen to the most unprepared knotheads about when or whether to do that, in the same manner as letting Gilligan take the wheel, or Rainman drive the car...??