The 4th Guards Tank Division and 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division-and by extension the whole 1st Guards Tank Army-probably are unfit for further fighting. They could reconstitute, but with what and whom? The Kremlin's urgent recruitment drive is faltering. And having written off more than a thousand tanks in Ukraine, the Russians might need years to bring depleted units back up to full strength.
The Ukrainian army by contrast has more tanks now than it did before the current counteroffensives, as it has captured more Russian tanks than it has lost of its own.
Oops. Cat. Out of bag.
It's because they haven't got anything else to spare to throw at this war.
And the Number One supplier of military equipment to Ukraine, for weeks and weeks now, and by orders of magnitude, isn't NATO; It's Putin's raggedy drunken Russian Army.
What do you want to bet that a large percentage of the billions Moscow allocated to modernize its armed forces following their underwhelming performances everywhere from Chechnya to South Ossetia wound up bobbing gently at anchor in Monaco and Barcelona?