I Was Wrong

But before the World's Foremost Experts, who've gotten this wrong  every day since February 26th, start wetting themselves with delight, some background:

You see, I assumed that the military tribe of incompetents surrounding Putin would call up their 300K reservists, equip them, give them some minimal refresher training, and use shattered leftovers from early in the war as cohort units, around which to rebuild serious fighting forces.

That takes weeks to months for us, and Russians aren't anywhere near that competent, so I figured a reasonable expectation was that either they'd have to issue and train for a winter offensive (good luck with that in Russia or Ukraine on the steppes), or far more likely, they'd take the time to do it right, and have another go at things next spring.

Because that's what military leaders competent in logistics, tactics, and strategy would do.

Only total farking military idiots and morons would send them straight into combat immediately, right?

Nope. I was wrong there. Nothing could be further from the truth. That's not what's happening at all.

They loaded the busses and trains with old farts, and simply shipped them Stalingrad-style, straight to the front lines, to be fed face-first right into the meat-grinder, and they're already turning up in Uke POW hauls. In short, Russian generals are falling for their own patriotic propaganda from their Great Patriotic War.

Three days after the mobilization, their fresh conscripts were already being captured. Some of them are simply driving over to the Uke side, and surrendering, to get it over with. And bringing fully functional BMPs with them.

Unarmed, unfed, unsheltered, un-equipped, and generally surly and pissed at being treated as exactly the cannon fodder they are.

Captured Russian equipment is now a sizable percentage of the reason for the renewed and re-invigorated Ukrainian push forward: Russia is supplying them nearly as much gear and ammunition in some areas as they're getting from the West. How annoying.

The Russian conscripts being force-fed into this would be rioting and mutinying, but they don't even have the ammo to pull that off.

So where I'd previously expected the Ukrainian Army to take a breather any day now, if not weeks ago, to consolidate their gains, and then see where to go next, I expect they may be able to completely push the remaining Russian forces back strategically. They're encircling a full corps (two-plus divisions) now, and if they cut off the southern front, everything from Odessa to Mariupol is in play, including shutting the Crimea off from Russia proper by land again.

Things on the fronts might return to something like normalcy eventually, but that would depend on Russian military leadership competence (another thing they're under-supplied with), so the only limiting factor may become how long the Ukrainians can keep kicking Russian forces in the balls, and how long they want to keep doing it, before they stop to fully consolidate their gains, with an army on the ground now about 4 times the size of the Russians, and at least twice the size it was when this conflict started.

And the whinging that this offensive was all NATO troops has dissipated like fog on a sunny day. The Ukes are doing this themselves, and it's obvious from space.

Russia's big mobilization so far is looking like the mouse that farted.

Bummer, Putinophiles.

The primary concern, and still-open question, is whether Putin has the ability and the will to order a nuclear strike, and the insanity to try it, or if that really is the point at which he gets retired, and he knows it, and is thus forced to eat the entire shit sandwich he ordered, until all of it is gone.

Interesting times continue.