Lawdog thinks the Russians deliberately blew up their pipelines too.
But inadvertently and negligently, not purposeful sabotage.
Which is still going to cause volcanic butthurt to those who knee-jerked straight to " 'merica did it."
RTWT.
I'd link him over yonder --->, but for his twice-annual posting.
16 comments:
Fascinating read - a possibility. And of this? There would be proof.
Russia's overall silence on the whole incident - other than a quick boilerplate categorical denial of any responsibility - has been rather deafening.
Except this was in one of the shallower depth parts of the lines near the island. If hydrates are going to form, they will form in the deeper parts where the water accumulates in the low spots, where the hydrostatic pressures and pipeline pressures are also higher because pressure is a big part of hydrate formation, as is lower temperatures. Also there is no oxygen down there in the line, so it isn't "explosive", and methane has very narrow explosive limits, anyway.
I've got to take a guess that the Russians did what most operators do and during the volume slow down when rates went low (and thus pipeline velocities too low to sweep the line clear of liquids) pumped a slug of methanol into the line to sweep into the low areas and be absorbed into any water that might have dropped out, preventing hydrate formation. Ultra basic pipeline operation 101. The Russians are not new at operating gas lines. They operate Sakhalin and Siberian gas operations quite reliably. Their oil and gas industry is older than that in the USA, and much more used to operating in cold conditions. I've worked as an engineer on JVs in Russia. They know their stuff about operating, so don't conclude that just because their military is crap that their petro biz is. After all, they make their money from their petro biz, not their military. Not to say that it isn't crooked, but this would be a level of incompetency that is surprising. After all, it was their space program that the US rode to the space station for years, so they do know how to do some things right.
Also, I looked up the Nord stream pipeline. 50% owned by Germany and maintained jointly.
I suppose Lawdog knew that both the lousy good for nothing Russians AND the Germans had to agree to fail to maintain this line?
A lot of assumptions, NOW they have to account for the 4 incidents in a short time period (HEY Aesop, ever hear of timed charges, it's a thing) as well as how the Germans failed to do their Maintenace and or reported about those crummy Russians were screwing up?
Anon 4:33...well said sir, well said
But oh aesop...it goes against your deliberate Russia sabotage... Incompetence, I can see. Deliberate, not so much. Well done Lawdog. Thoughtful and thorough analysis. Aesop, I think he showed his work, unlike your many suppositions.
@Michael,
Natzsofast, slick.
Firstly, it's 51% Gazprom, 49% 4 Euro Co.s.
Secondly, fiduciary ownership does not equal day-to-day responsibility. If you've got a legit source that details who maintains what, and how far, link it.
From what I've seen of German industry, at the German receiving station you could probably eat off the floors.
As for multiple incidents, the pipeline has been closed more than it's been open this year, on multiple occasions, and always by the Russians. Which leads anyone to conclude the pipeline having problems, possibly as a result of exactly those frequent and prolonged shutdowns, isn't out of the realm of the possible.
Other than that, a worthy attempt.
@Anon,
But Anon, the authorities are all crying "Sabotage!", including the Swedes, and describing a profoundly large set of explosions.
I didn't do any "supposing", I laid out the evidence of who had the most to lose and the most to gain, along with motives and means, under the working hypothesis that somebody blew it up.
It doesn't matter to me if the Russians did it knowledgably, or from typical Russian half-assery and incompetence, if they still blew it up.
But it's a helluva problem for those who knee-jerk thought "the US must have done it."
Bummer, dude. Having a beloved pet theory die whimpering must be a little like losing a dog.
Excellent input, nice to see some one with knowledge of arctic O&G chime in. Listening to some of the 'information' put out in regards to arctic petroleum production has been amusing. Pretty sure 90% of ppl think you NEED a pump jack to get oil out of the ground.
Okay, should have read law dog first. Another conspiracy theory may have gone bust, Dammit.
Inconsistent operation would not necessarily conclude that the pipeline was having trouble. It very well could mean the Russians squeezing Europe in the grand geopolitical game. Remember, before this, the news was Russia writing
the rules of which currency to pay for Russki energy.
On and off again operation being one data point, I'd want more points before making a conclusion.
So you're saying the Holy Sainted Civilization-Saving Russians were lying the ten or twenty times they shut down gas deliveries for "maintenance" since last February???
I'm shocked! Shocked, I say! This is my shocked face!
How dare you accuse St. Valdimir of Moscow of outright falsehoods in service of geopolitical nut-squeezing!!! You'll be thrown out of the club for that! They won't have that sort of talk.
This is the first convincing take on 'it could be an accident' I've read, by someone who clearly knows WTF he is talking about.
Even if some western nations, or just the US, did blow the thing, (much as I despise the people who run every Anglo-sphere nation) morally it comes down to this: if the Russians insist on using their energy infrastructure as a weapon, no one has any right to cry foul if weapons are used against their energy infrastructure.
My first assumption (see first post on this) was that it was probably an accident before seeing the largely different areas of the two explosions. But if this was the case it was more a case of plugs in both and they didn't stop trying to remove them all after the first one blew. From my experience in Russia that is totally believable.
I'm late to the party with this, I know, but just came across these maps.
Looking at the locations of the explosions, I find it hard to believe the Russians did it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/Q5URW33PP5E5PAQ6NYJROLOLGI.jpg&w=540
https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-4bb9ef0db3345d9d992441a91ae50d36-pjlq
Seems they would be pretty unlikely to pull that off undetected in those locations.
I'm thinking it more likely that something like the Airborne Mine Neutralization System or some other type of unmanned undersea vehicle (UUV) was used to take out the Nord Stream pipelines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kegFJgpNNmg
Yes, I do think it more likely that this was indeed carried out by the US military under orders from our current government to keep the Germans from deciding that they will break ranks with the EU and the US to make peace with Russia in order to turn the LNG flow back on in order to avoid the German people freezing to death and destabilizing the German government this Winter.
Now that's not an option for them.
Tell us why Russia couldn't pull it off undetected, but you think the US could.
Did we patent a Klingon Cloaking Device, or what?
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