Wednesday, September 14, 2022

Herr Oberst Speaks, etc.

 Watch it and weep, Russophiles.

This isn't some grand strategy where Russia is luring the Ukes into a trap.

It's the Russian forces getting their asses handed to them in Kharkiv.

And while Col. Reisner notes this as the third phase of this conflict, there's absolutely no telling how many more it will undergo, nor have we told you anything to the contrary.

Since this affects a few things, not least of them your food and fertilizer supplies going forward, Europe's energy, the world economy, Putin's and Russia's future, and whether you might need SPF 10,000 sunscreen anytime soon, you might want to pay attention. Anyone who thinks this is "just a sideshow" isn't tall enough for the internet yet.

We further note that despite all the pants-wetting in comments yesterday, nobody could argue with anything more authoritative or convincing than the Underpants Gnome Theory Of What's Happening that what we told you isn't exactly what's going down.

Another shutout for Putin's biggest fans. Shocking.


Meanwhile, in the category of weapons autists, this guy

is both fun and interesting to watch, because you're getting better-than-CIA-level military analysis (in this case, of Russian howitzer tube life) from some guy in his den with nothing but a brain and internet access. Before you get your panties in a twist over that, realize this was how Tom Clancy (an insurance agent with zero .mil training, FFS) got started too, and he got dragged into both the CIA and the Reagan White House, with people who were baffled at how he'd figured out the stuff he wrote, which was hitting uncomfortably close to the mark, and all he used was open UNCLAS sources.

If you think your leadership, civilian or military, is wall-to-wall geniuses, I have a bridge to sell you.

Common sense, isn't.


Charlie said...

Anonymous said...

Russia doesn't get 'Good Guy' status just for being on the opposite side of the internationalists, but it's difficult to feel overly hostile toward Russia, especially when we see what the internationalists have done and are doing in the U.S. and Europe.

Russia has nominally attempted to throw off the control of the international bankers.

Russia is attempting to start a cartel (BRICS) of commodity-backed currency/trade and get away from the fiat currency debt system.

Russia is sticking its finger in the eye of the international banking scheme at every turn.

Russia invaded a neighbor state, but that state is under the control of the international banking system and their puppet, was threatening to join NATO after promises of neutrality, and represents a major proximal artery of advance to Moscow.

Russia may very well be having a hard time in Ukraine. That seems to be the case. However, Russia views Ukraine as a strategic red line, and they appear to be treating it as such after years of assurances they would do so.

The internationalists have been prepping the battle space for a conflict with Russia since at least 2016 (Russian Collusion, Russian Disinformation, Putin's Puppet, etc.) Did Russia read the tea leaves and jump the gun in order to steal a march on NATO?

Aesop said...


As usual, Vox is talking out his ass, and whistling past the graveyard.
Neither the oberst, nor the Russian leadeship, are going for the 37D-chess explanation.

@Anon 7:29,

Finally! A position and explanation I can accept at face value, and respect.
At the end of the day, had Russia kept their military pecker in their pants, and confined themselves to economic action, I could respect their motives and actions.

The minute they decided to bomb their neighbor and conquer it into submission, any prospect of that respect goes out the window. And every nation in Europe feels exactly the same way, not least of which the ones that Russia occupied illegally for 45 years, and the reason they drove three neutrals firmly and irrevocably into NATO's arms in mere days, something neither Napoleon nor Hitler could manage to do in years of trying.

And the problem with Russia regarding Ukraine as a red line is they also pledged openly to do no such thing as invade it, but rather defend its sovereignty, not treat it as a bitch to be slapped around when it wouldn't roll over.

They stole Crimea outright, and the world did nothing. They faked an internal revolution in Luhansk and Donetsk, and sent their military there in civilian clothes, and the world did nothing. Three strikes, and the world fell on them like a ton of bricks, and the set-back to their economic and foreign policy will last a century, if not longer.

Being an entire nation of bumbling paranoids with delusions of grandeur has consequences.

Anonymous said...

I consider both countries as hostile towards us, couldn't care less who wins. Just finish it so hopefully exports can re-start as soon as possible.

Aesop said...

Isolationism as policy was strangled in the crib in late 1941.

Sarah Elizabeth said...


Paul said...

Looks like Ukraine as blood in there eyes. This could get really bad if Russia thinks it is being backed into a corner. Lots of national pride on display. Some a lot of us in the country are seriously lacking.

Aesop said...

As I noted yesterday, Russia losing prodigiously is almost as bad as them winning: for everyone else.
It also makes Putón more dangerous, and less stable, both mentally, and in his position.

"What cannot continue, won't."

Bear Claw Chris Lapp said...

Not a trap. They have repeatedly retreated and entrapped the idiots. Any success is mostly due to non Ukrainian contractors, fucking government. I have come to the realization that all America has done is get people maimed and killed for mostly nothing since WW II. May our US Government and the cabal rot in hell. They don't give a rats ass about what they have done to the civilians with millions displaced, hungry and tired of our shit. It will come back to bite America in the end.

Aesop said...

The problem with your "realization" is that it runs headfirst into all available evidence to the contrary.

"Pics or it didn't happen" isn't just a saying, BCCL.

Anonymous said...

In regards to tim Clancy ..he may have had some education in research by Larry bond who knows how to research stuff

Anonymous said...

I don’t see our keeping our noses out of this as isolationism. Too late anyway, plenty of US .mil hardware already in use there.

Same same regarding Azerbaijan and Armenia getting into it - again.

You going to pick a side there?

US has intervened in so many places over the last 100 or so years that it’s difficult to keep them all straight.

Nah, like people have been saying, the so-called election cycle is coming up. Maybe. What new super duper pooper scooper fly is going to be hatched soon to cause the next lockdown?

We the people need to clean our nest and get our own house in order.


Aesop said...

@Anon 10:24,

I dunno about Tim Clancy, but Tom Clancy wrote The Hunt For Red October, which was published in 1984, all by himself, which was how he came to be invited to the White House, and subsequently invited for a chat at Langley. He may have used info from Bond's war game Harpoon as part of his reference material.

He didn't start collaborating with Larry Bond until later, working on Red Storm Rising, his second novel, which was published in 1986.

Joe in PNG said...

Consider: Maybe, just maybe Putin isn't a good leader.

The fact that Putin is not a good leader doesn't negate the fact that Biden is a terrible leader too- both facts can coexist.

The fact that Putin is not a good leader doesn't negate the fact that the Globalist are terrible people with a horrific agenda either.

The fact that Putin is obviously not a good leader doesn't negate the fact that the mainstream media is full of crap.

Pretending that Putin is a good leader is just as stupid as being a Biden cheerleader.

Anonymous said...

Napoleon drastically underestimated NATO.

Devil's advocate:

What if Russia views the internationalist puppet government of Ukraine as being illegitimate and their military operation as being an ipso facto defense of Ukraine's sovereignty?

As for Crimea, sometimes a strategic warm water port brings a moral question into stark relief, and the historically Russian blood of Luhansk and Donetsk the issue of how to access it.

"Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you." - Joseph Heller

Anonymous said...

It aint over till its over.
But this time its looking more & more likely ww4 will be sticks & rocks

Aesop said...

Russia will make up whatever pretexts suit it to rationalize land grabs.
That's human nature, and they've been lying to themselves for 100 years.
Machts nichts.

What's important is Jack Sparrow's Axiom:
"There's what you can do, and what you can't do."

The less they can do beyond their own borders, the safer life becomes for every country on their periphery. Which is a serious concern for the US from Norway to Turkey.

John Wilder said...

I love weaponized autism, especially when it's on weapons.

Joe in PNG said...

Another point to ponder. Putin is being sold as this Great Christian Warrior, crusading against the evil forces of the Evil Globalhomo Anti-Christian Conspiracy, right?

But when has Putin ever stood up for Christians, outside those in his own country that belong to the official state church he controls?

Consider who some of his biggest allies are: Communist China, North Korea, Iran, and so on. Nations which are actively anti-Christian, as in taking active measures to root out, imprison, persecute, and even murder the Christians in their midst. But what does Putin do about it?

Technically, he's the most powerful professed Christian in the world today, and for the past decade or so. But does he use any of it to come to the aid of the persecuted church under the heel of his erstwhile allies? It's not like Mr. Ex KGB is unaware of the persecution, but I suspect his faith takes a back seat to profits, every time.

Sentenza said...

This reminds me of Red Storm rising, when the general found out that units had been faking their readiness and training reports.

With the amount of other corruption in the Russian army, is it hard to imagine that they'd do that?

Pat H. said...

The problem with Herr Oberst is that virtually nothing he said is true, it's NATO agitprop. There is no Russian desire to take on the Baltic countries, provided they stop assisting the arms flow into Ukraine.

Most of western Europe will stop sanctions against Russia because it's already getting cold there. They must have Russian gas to heat with, and run factories to avoid total economic collapse.

Soon, Russia will have to go more scorched-earth, something they've been avoiding. With all of the freebies the US is sending them, those long range missiles cost $380,000 each, if the Ukies fire some into Russia, the gloves will come off.

The Rothschild's boy blunder, who spends most of his time in Poland, will simply retire to one of his five homes outside of Ukraine, and that will be that.

Pat H. said...

I really don't understand why you, Aesop, a normally lucid and rational person; are so unnerved by the Russian Federation. I've spoken to Concerned American (CA) about you, he says he'd still want you inside the wire. CA has met with me twice, and visited my home on the farm, feel free to ask him anything you might wish.

If the Ukies wanted peace, they shouldn't have been shelling civilians in the eastern provinces since 2014. The negotiated peace of the Minsk accords were routinely violated, using the Rothschild fool as a pawn, the US wanted war with Russia to break them economically. Instead, nearly all of western Europe is moving towards basketcasedom. Russia is strong economically now, better than they were prior to 24 February, 2022. Yes, they've cozied up to China, which, apparently, Beijing Biden and those running him don't seem to see as a problem. They are wrong.

Ideally, the US should have told the Rothschilds/Israel to piss off, and made friends with the Russian Federation as a counter to China.

Aesop said...

I'm not unnerved by the Russian Federation; I simply detest Putin. He was bad as merely a hometown dictator. Now that he's gone rogue and attacked a sovereign nation, he's a rabid dog who needs to be put down, literally, for the good of the planet and the human race.

If Putin wanted peace, he shouldn't have stolen Crimea in 2014, and then sent soldiers in civvies to occupy the eastern provinces later that same year. That probably had a lot to do with the subsequent shelling, but it's funny you don't hear about that part of the deal from the pro-dictator side.

The Minsk accords were an open joke, as the "separatists" were Russian soldiers, Russian-backed, and Russian-directed. Everything after that is response. Russia is propping up the ruble mightily, but the sanctions are crippling their railroad system, which dooms them as much as anything in the long run, not to mention the newly achieved difficulty in exporting anything anywhere when the only way out is 6000 miles east to Vladivostok.

Of course him allying with China is a problem, but the payback on that will come in due course. As will India's.
Nations don't have friends, they have interests.

Russia has decided that they can do as they please with neighboring nations without consequence. Most of the world disagrees. If anyone wants to pimp Russia's position by whatever rationalizations help them sleep at night, that's their business. But they should have higher standards. At the end of the day, Putin will be as highly-regarded by his own people as Qadaffi or Idi Amin were by theirs. That day cannot come soon enough.

Joe in PNG said...

Historically, Russia is like that big, tough looking kid who doesn't actually have any coordination, stamina, or knowledge of how to fight.

He does best when he can rely on his intimidating presence to bully the smaller kids and scare off rivals. But if things come down to the mat, he's a clutz who awkwardly flails around and gets winded super fast.

Russia does have a lot of territory, so that has also given them literal space to majorly screw up on the defensive and still regroup. If they were the size of France, they would take the place of France as the memetic surrender monkeys of history.