Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Occam's Razor 1, Usual Suspects 0


Explain in Comments why Saint Putin of the KGB would never, ever do something this devious and evil, and why Emperor Stumblefuck Poopypants I is too savvy to walk into this with his thumb in his mouth, drool running down to his elbow, and his pants around his ankles. Show all work.

If you cannot do that, STFU.

Seriously: if all you've got is naked gainsaying, don't bother. That will probably weed out all but one or two weakly argued attempts. Bring your A game, or stay in the bleachers. I'm too busy today to argue with retards. DLTDHYITAOYWO.


Europe has nothing to gain from this, and everything to lose.

The U.S. has nothing to gain from this, and everything to lose.

Russia has everything  to gain from this, and little, if anything, to lose. And if the time comes to rebuild the pipeline, Europe will gladly pay every penny, directly or indirectly. Net loss to Russia: ₱0.


For the low-information punditry, the pipelines sit at a depth of about 240 feet of water. Not thousands of feet down.

Anybody with a rowboat, a fish finder, 20 pounds of Semtex, and a few hundred feet of det cord had the means to do this. It isn't WWII: You don't have to swim over to it and wrap explosives around the pipeline to get the job done, FFS.

Been to sea, and still had to have this explained to you?
Stop licking the windows on the short bus.

That leaves the possible suspects at 150 nations, and 58 terrorist organizations. And 98% of the later have long historical ties for financing and supply from Russia and her client states.

Hell, it even leaves the list of suspects with the means at hundreds of corporations, and thousands of beer-drinking stump-blasting bass-cranking Bass Pro Shop Good Ole Bubbas from the Carolinas to the Colorado River, just off the top of my head, without even breaking a sweat.

Thousands and thousands of potential suspects could have done this. It's not like finding the Titanic "somewhere" in the North Atlantic.

So what say let's all stop pretending,  a la MSNBC, it was the January 6th Coup Attempt trying to land a manned mission on Mars to conquer the solar system.

So: Russia wouldn't do this? With everything to gain, and nothing to lose??

Grow the fuck up.

Zero downside, could have paid for it out of petty cash/pocket change, and it would have taken about 3 minutes to plan and a half an hour to execute.

They could, and they did.


UPDATE: More grist for the mill.


Sam Hall said...

It is remarkable how many people, when they wake up to the fact the the US .gov can and does and has done dirty nasty things and false flags and propaganda manipulation, suddenly believe that this means that Russia and China never do those things (and never have). And so it doesn't even occur as a possibility in their mind that Putin benefits from this, and would obviously pick a time when there were US navy vessels in the area... duh.

I think people have trouble with the fact that the world is filled with evil people; and as far as the eye can see, every government is run by evil people right now. They can't handle how dark it all looks, so the enemy of the evil people in our own government must be the good guys.

As for method and means, I think that Russian paranoia makes it plausible that any infrastructure they build has been rigged to be destroyed if they want it gone.

JNorth said...

Eh, possibly, from my experience over in Russia and what we've been seeing in the last few years combined with the fact that the German inspectors had some issues with the quality of the work on that pipeline it's equally likely it just broke. They are concrete incased pressurized pipes, if there was a leak in the metal pipe it would build up pressure in the concrete until that broke and the whole thing blew out. If they are close enough together the first blowing could have damaged the second enough to blow out several hours (17 is reported, eliminating the claim of a US torpedo) later.

If it was blown up, your "a rowboat, a fish finder, 20 pounds of Semtex, and a few hundred feet of det cord" is more likely then a SEAL Team from the USS Kearsarge (heard it was in the area several days before). There was 17 hours between the two seismograph reading and depressurizing of the second pipe.

I expect pooty poot to do his best to take advantage of it in any case.

As far as who else might have had reason to destroy it, there is a group of folks who have for years been saying they are going to reduced the world population 90% by 2030 and stop everyone from using fossil fuels. Germany freezing this winter or better yet setting off a larger war would help them in that regard.

JNorth said...

Hum... Just saw a diagram over on Wilder's, if it's accurate then the possibility of one pipe breaking and damaging the other is out, the distance looks too great.

Anonymous said...

Good God man. I don’t know who is more desperate, you or the Deep State. Of course Pootie could do it, for all the reasons you state. But this isn’t about the Vladster getting a free hand, this is about destroying Germany.

Anonymous said...

Im liking the reduce the world population" idea. It will be intersting to see how well the emigrents fair.

Just came across this, loks like a fourth russian pipe line to close.


Aesop said...

Google the number of ships within a day or two's sailing of the incident locations with undersea mapping and exploration equipment, undersea explosives, and undersea cameras, capable of work in a couple hundred feet of water.

It's probably only a couple of hundred.

That's assuming this wasn't done low-tech, and someone on a trawler or cabin cruiser just slid the payload down the anchor chain after snagging the pipeline(s).

This was stupid-simple, and less complicated than putting an IED in the road. And of course, that's never happened to anyone, has it?

Watch and see how many times it does from here on out though, after the fact.

Anonymous said...

JNorth... I won't speculate on whodunit, but 3 separate explosions verified by Swedish monitoring was not an issue with construction or materials used.
Original Grandpa

Aesop said...

@Anon 11:41,

Good God, man, Germany was destroyed the minute the Russian gas tap was shut off.
So cui bono the most from this turn?
Russia is only a 51% owner, so they barely take any hit. And Europe will fall all over themselves to rebuild it, at zero cost to Russia (all of which costs get passed on to the consumer, as always with energy products), in happier times.

But blowing it up and trying to pin it on a handy US Navy ship in the area? Genius.
Dividing NATO? Two-fer!
Playing the innocent victim of a dirty trick? Hat trick!
Random pipelines of other NATO infrastructure blowing up in the North Sea or elsewhere in retaliation? Grand Slam.

I'm shaving this with Occam's Razor: the shortest distance between who and why = culprit.
Russia's been doing byzantine shit like this since the czars.
Color me shocked.

JustinR said...


All the Russians had to do to give the middle finger to the greenie WEF globalists controlling most of Europe, the NATO military-industrial types getting kickbacks from all the defense contractors, the corrupt central banks desperate to distract from their MMT dam about to burst and destroy most of the west's economy, was to turn off the gas flow.

Then, when enough politicians are hanging frozen from lampposts and the governments of Europe are forced to start buying Russian gas again or risk overthrow, the Russians again turn on the gas flow for significantly higher prices.

I see no advantage to the Russians to harm their own potential income and leverage over Europe. Destroying the pipelines means years for non-Russian sources to build in competition before they are fixed. Why destroy your own leverage?

On the other hand, Brandon has directly threatened to ensure NS2 never functioned. Out loud. I've witnessed the US government and others illegally seize property of Russian citizens with no due process, just lame excuses of "oh, they are rich and Russian, they must be Putin assets." I've watched governments and banks illegally seize Russian government foreign currency reserves, cut off access of average Russian citizens to payment methods used in every day life. I've watched as our own fucking government sends metric tons of weapons to a corrupt country where Brandon made who knows how much money illegally. Weapons the DoD even acknowledges have extremely poor tracking with a lot probably ending up on the black market, while our own gov tries to confiscate RIFLES! here.

The WEF globalists controlling Brandon want a war. Doesn't matter to them if it's Russia, China, or both. They are doing everything possible to push for one. They have done everything possible to financially harm Russia, including removing Russian gold and silver refineries from the LBMA good delivery list. This is the latest US attempt to harm Russia financially and push them toward all out war, while US LNG ships are ramping up to carry gas to Europe. These assholes want a war to destroy 90% of the world's population, destroy "non-green" sources of energy, and establish their perfect technocratic state in the ashes. And they say all this shit out loud. The people controlling Brandon have every reason to do this. The Global Hawk that was visible circling the area on aircraft tracking web sites beforehand means they weren't fucking unaware it was gonna happen.

Anonymous said...

It's like the iocane powder scene in Princess Bride. Either way the manure will soon hit the fan.

Unknown said...

There is no doubt doing it was easy. As pointed out by another commenter, sometimes it's more a matter of keeping it from blowing. The real question is motive, not means. The US certainly had motive (keep Germany on the Ukraine War side). As long as that pipe was in place, there was real risk of Germany folding to avoid reliving the 17th century. In winter. In northern Europe. As long as the pipeline was in place, Russia could turn it on in a matter of hours, make big $$ and wreck the US coalition and Germany could thaw out and actually have an industrial sector. With it blown up, there is no quick recovery so the pressure is off the US (albeit I am sure construction repairs would move FAST if need be and allowed) and Germany is left to freeze in the dark ON THE UKRAINE SIDE OF THE WAR. I think your assessment of Russia's motive is strong as well but I see it more of a toss up (leaning toward US with a slight edge in motive) than a slam dunk "Russia Did It".

Shades of gray...

Phelps said...

I thought Russia was broke and their economy was collapsing? They can't afford to break anything that would potentially make them money, especially something that would be needed if they somehow lost the war in Ukraine.
You are wrong on Europe, as well. Poland has everything to gain and nothing to lose. All of the gas has to go through Poland now to get to Germany. Poland gets to decide how long Ukraine suffers as their meat shield, because now Germany can't make a deal without their approval. Russian gas? Goes through Poland. North Sea gas for Germany? Goes through Poland.
You're right about anyone with a boat though. You don't think it's an interesting coincidence that the site is a quick day trip from the Polish coast, in the exact spot where the Poles surveilled the contractors as they were installing NS2, and also right within the survey zone for their own Baltic Pipe?

pyrrhus said...

The vegetable in the WH said he would do this on Feb.7, and the US navy had ships and choppers in that exact area.....Occam's razor all right, to keep Germany in this bogus war..Also reports that CIA had tipped German intel that this might happen...

Aheinousanus said...

Your theory of poor Russian quality can explain NS2 blowing up. It does not explain two NS1 sections blowing up as well and on the same night.

Heywood5150 said...

So your saying Ivan blew up his own pipeline instead of just turning a valve?
No entirely beyond the realm of possibility but that theory is awfully close to the edge.

Aesop said...


Brandon's an idiot. Hence, why not take advantage of his babbling to frame him? He's making it stupid-easy.
I'm unconvinced that fixing it would be that difficult, and the PR Russia gets by blowing it now and pinning it on the US is a boon beyond financial calculation.

The Global Hawk is monitoring a major sea lane infiltration route and critical choke point, amidst an announced blockade of Russian combatants, during a regional war. Its presence in the area is not only wholly unremarkable, it's minimal due diligence by an intel establishment that missed the Korean War, the Berlin Wall, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the Gulf War.

@Anon 12:39,

So how does it work if it comes out the US did it, and at that point, is the lemon even worth the squeeze?
YUUUUGE downside for the US if involved, virtually none for Russia no matter what. The West can't hate them any more than they do, and they won't lose any more than they've already lost, with the potential of a landfall win if people buy their propaganda spin.

"Potential" money can't be spent, and the costs will be entirely borne by the West, sooner or later. The pipeline is, literally, "sunk money". But blowing it up and playing the victim gets them metric fucktons of sympathy, and years of shitposting at the Big League levels.


Right. So who announces they're going to shoot themselves in the foot, with the whole world watching, and then does it?

The US Navy has had ships and helicopters in the Kattegat and the Baltic Sea since 1945, and it's a very narrow strait. The CIA tipping Germany that this might happen could very well be because they had good intel from Russian sources that this might happen. We've only been warning them of their strategic vulnerability in that respect for about ten years now. Blowing the thing up after we specifically told them to watch it would be asinine and pointless if we were going to do the deed. (Google the assessed capability of current German Navy.) If we'd told them nothing, and that everything was cool, to divert any interest in keeping an eye on the area, it would be far more suspicious.

Bonus points to all contestants for focusing on actual issues.
The three or four Brave Anonymous Keyboard Commandos who couldn't resist naked gainsaying, and should have stayed on the porch, are rewarded with a trip to the digital ether.

Aesop said...


Re: The Polish Angle:

Ability: Maybe 30%
Likelihood: 0%

1) No historic evidence of any such competency or deviousness.
2) Downside: Expulsion from NATO, Europe washing their hands of them, and everyone greenlighting them as Putin's next territorial acquisition.

Given their last century of history, odds they'd ever risk that fate: no chance in hell.

Aesop said...


NEWSFLASH: Ivan already turned off the valves.
The pipeline was deadweight, politically and economically.
The PR bonanza of pinning this on the US is riches beyond the measuring of mortal men. In exchange for about $20 worth of demo, and no downside to Russia whatsoever.

Anonymous said...

Does it really matter who blew it? The US will suffer the blame due to the boosting walking Depends ad now in the Oval Office who couldn't keep his mouth shut about "ending it", (pipeline) and that Nuland at State running her yap.

Anonymous said...

You're assuming that America is ruled by people who actually place value on our best interests.

As others have said, the people pulling Brandon's strings want MOAR WAR. They keep trying to provoke Putin into flinging a nuke, and I keep expecting it, and it keeps not happening.

I think it's a real bad idea for us sane people to rely on Putin not going completely around the bend, but that's the position we're in now.

I'd say it's equal odds that it was the US, NATO, Russia, or some random green terrorists.

I'd also agree with your assessment that Russia wins big with this because everyone's willing to believe that Brandon would do something this stupid.


Anonymous said...

Brandon's not running the show. Blinken (Ukrainian), Nuland, Rice and a handful of their string-pullers are. The US has had non-stop aerial surveillance over all traffic in and out of the Baltic Sea, along with all of Eastern Europe, the Black Sea and Caribbean since at least last November. Rivet Joints, Hurons, Global Hawks, not to mention satellites and NATO assets (naval, aerial, etc). It is also a virtual certainty there are underwater SOSUS type monitors for everything passing through to Kaliningrad or St. Petersburg. or Sea traffic is heavily monitored and one can bet every vessel within 50km of either pipeline damage site over the past year is known. Absent reporting of likely candidates for the acts, even if imprecise, makes one question why smoking gun aerials or data have not been released by NATO.

Furthermore, NS2 was the carrot the Russians held to dissuade Germany from going all in on Ukraine. They can't turn NS2 or NS2 on now, so their influence is destroyed. Who benefits from that? Ukraine and the parties of NATO who are most vigorously pushing full support for Ukraine. That would be the US or UK. Who controls Liz Truss? Dunno, but she's been another super hawk throughout.

There are wildcards, of course, but the parties with means, motive and opportunity are the ones dominating that area.

Anonymous said...

Video of newly raised Russian troops marching to defend newly-declared Holy Mother Russia from generations of occupying Ukrainazis! They sing! Proof of high moral! Pay no attention to western lies!


Anonymous said...

Mediterranean, not Caribbean. mea culpa

Aesop said...


I make no such assumptions about who rules us.

@Anon 01:58P,

Brandon's never been "running the show". Which makes his remarks concerning stopping the pipeline wholly irrelevant to events, as they are 24/7/365.
Despite the monitoring of which you speak, it's a big ocean, and the op wouldn't have taken long, nor even been obvious to anything but intense scrutiny, which is impossible given the level of traffic through those straits.

Russian influence is never subtle. Russians don't do carrot-and-stick. They do stick-and-fist. They shut the tap off. They were done trying to influence.

Aheinousanus said...

Some people have TDS and some have PDS.
Russia had nothing to lose and everything to gain? Seriously?
Those natural gas pipelines were used as leverage against the EU. It was also leverage that could had been used to topple current governments in Europe.
Blowing up the pipelines has less if a,possibility to create friction inside the EU than having it and using it to create friction.

The US on the other hand has a lot to gain.
It removes that leverage from Russia. It drastically reduced the likelihood that the EU will seek to end the war in Ukraine and get the gas flowing again.

elysianfield said...


With all respect...I disagree. If the pipline was destroyed as an act of terrorism, Germany and other Member EU states would not have the option to move into the Russian sphere and gratefully accept the providence of Russia...rumblings of which were heard.

But no sweat...The US has control of the satellites and drones, which will soon proove the narrative...

The US is the big winner in this event. It removes options from both Putin and his soon to be victims, our hard put allies. The US might even export gas to the a price, of course.

Anonymous said...

Nobody has asked about insurance... is the pipeline insured against blowouts, leaks, accidents, attacks, terrorism?

If it is, who benefits?

If Russia isn't selling gas through the pipeline, but can make some money from a pipeline disaster to fund the state and fund the war un Ukraine, that is a motive.

Anonymous said...

Setting aside whodunnit for the moment, let's ponder when the (probable) charges were set. Certainly the technology exists to have accurate timers run for years. From a practical perspective, at what point in the progression of battle would either side decide such an operation was necessary? Probably took some time to plan. May have been a contingency from the onset of hostilities, although not sure anyone expected things to go this long. Also were timers set when the charges were placed or remotely programmable? One imagines external setting would be limited to close proximity, hundreds of yards if not closer, unless long antennae we're used for water-friendly low frequency communication.

Doubtless there are parties investigating the damage sites. How big did the explosions have to be to breach the pipelines? Would any remnants of the charge setting electronics be recoverable? (Underwater demolition types chime in!)

Pics of the damage will be interesting. A hole or a clean circumferential break speaks volumes.

Would a non-operating pipeline still have regular surveillance? Monthly? Annually? Only if anomalies detected? I guess an analogy would be if Keystone XL still has intermittent surveillance, in hopes it may yet operate.

My guess (completely WAG) would be July to gin up the idea, August to plant the charges, September to program them. If planted by hostiles. If friendlies then planting / programming could be much more recent.

Of course it could be a single operation, with only enough time delay to clear the area. That I would imagine would be in the domain of third parties, perhaps eco-warrior types? Not sure what their motives would be, outside of hating everything solar, wind or geothermal.

Even the "normal" pioeline-haters are pretty strident: (very low probability, IMO <0.1%)

Just spitballing. It's the 2020's, anything seems possible.

Bear Claw Chris Lapp said...

I guess no more shipping of high priced American LNG to Europe is to be had now

Mike-SMO said...

It is worrisome that no one in the EU, NATO, etc was watching this resource or has had the curiosity to drop a few divers over the side to look for evidence. This way, could'a been most anyone.

As I recall, most of the functional land pipelines to Europe for Russian gas pass through the Ukraine. If Putsky targets Ukrainian infrastructure, HE gets credit for cutting those supply lines. Those pipes are obviously being held hostage from the depredations of all those new Russian invaders.

It is always easy to logically "prove" that your prejudices are indeed based on "facts". The only rational conclusion is that a Ukrainian team did the deed from a rented fishing boat. Purely as a defensive measure, of course.

This one is going to require extra pop corn.

Anonymous said...

Never rule out the one nation that is about to begin exporting Natural Gas to Europe. That would be Israel.

Anonymous said...

1. Turning the taps back on and selling lots of gas to Germany would make Russia a lot of money in a hurry. Fixing a flooding pipeline in the Baltic is going to take months of no revenue.
2. Europe can't build enough LNG terminals and alternative pipelines in less than a few years to replace what Russia could crank up in a few weeks had NS1 and NS2 remained intact. I actually doubt they could do it in less than seven years, and the amount of LNG available is questionable to fill in gaps.
3. Yes, it is easy enough to snag the pipeline and low tech a contact explosive in such shallow water to punch a hole in it. But AIS and recording radar would make it very obvious who had lingered in the area directly over the leak points, so that seems to put this in the attachment from a distance category via ROV. That narrows down the suspects. For arguments sake, if the depth is on the order of 80m, that takes serious decompression diving, so just isn't practical and again, you'd have to be right over it for extended time, making it obvious who did it. People who argue that divers could use mini subs from a distance are correct, but that clearly puts it in the military support vessel category, and even then we are talking serious dive risk. ROV planting command detonated explosives much more likely.
4. The US gets to sell LNG and LNG facility technology to Europe for an extended period of time.
5. EU citizens in Germany that were already pressuring their government to negotiate with Russia to reopen NS1 are now SOL, a situation that makes the EU even more dependent on the US and reduces Russia's bargaining power with the EU.
6. This increases Ukraine's leverage with the EU for the Russian gas that is transiting Ukraine.

I think this makes no sense for Russia to have done this, but makes a lot of sense for Ukraine or Poland to do it and blame Russia, at the same time casting a shadow on the US. But the US does gain a lot from this, not the least from continuing to pressure the EU to remain dependent on the US. Unless Denmark is completely crap at their civil defense, they should have recording AIS tracking vessel movements and noted any that lingered in the area, but I'm sure any military worth a damn would have kept moving to make sure they didn't get pinned down as loitering. There are even remote piloted underwater drones these days that can be flown down and spotted next to the line to be command detonated from a distance, or by time delay.

I worked as an engineer in the international offshore oil and gas industry for over 20 years. I know pipelines, platforms, ROVs and diving.

Shinmen Takezo said...

After reading your screed AESOP--now I know that you're completely out of your mind. Putin blowing up his own pipeline? You are out of your mind. If Putin wanted to stop gas flow all he had to do was close the valves at the pumping stations. That's it. This act of sabotage was indeed performed by US and most likely British special forces. What an insane stretch to lay the blame on Putin. The US and UK by shutting off the pipeline perhaps permanently shut off any and all possible negotiations between Germany and Russia. This is what it is all about. The US communists now in charge of the country (along with the Neo-Con-Job-Artists) and the militard-zipperheads in the Pentagram want to prolong the war as far into the future as possible. They actually want a showdown between NATO and Russia--which assuredly will open up the canned sunshine... and the USA will be propelled back into the 19th century 24 hours after the first egg drops. Wrap your skull around it. This is what you are playing with. If you dig movies like "The Road" and "The Day After" then you're gonna' get your wish--which is to die at the hands of another man.

Anonymous said...

Russia gets the least cut bono from this. Poland stands to get a ton if the new pipe from Norway stays intact, which I wouldn’t bet on. Of course, Big Gas wins and Germany is beat down again.

Germany significantly damaged itself with sanction stupidity, but with the pipes intact, they had the option to come to their senses. Now, not so much.

Your looking at this too much like an American, perspective tainted by the petty, capricious and vindictive nature of our own government and at least half of society.

Your scenario doesn’t, in my view, fit how Russian leadership has done things to date. Right or wrong, their decisions have been far more considered and measured with an eye for the long view.

Anonymous said...

Just a (relevant) question.

In a war the attacked get to respond, and attack any, and all, bases and infrastructure in the country attacking them, right? (That’s basic “How to fight an enemy 101”, lesson 1 – attack their means to wage war on you).

So (other than a couple of minor “demonstration” attacks, right near the border) why hasn’t that happened? (Remember the UKe’s can blend seamlessly into the native population, and Russia has a ‘very’ vulnerable oil, gas and even basic transport infrastructure – I know, having spent a pre-perestroika career, wandering unnoticed round the rodina, tasked with preparing to do just that).

The answer? Because the EU, NATO and the US told them not to (and if they do it anyway, they lose all the money and support).

So what are the odds that that policy just randomly stops for NS2? (incidentally, and purely coincidentally I’m sure, the ‘only’ pipeline that doesn’t affect Russia's bottom line in any way).

I’ll believe it was ‘us’ when all those juicy pipelines, pumping stations, junctions and rigs start going boom too. Until then? When only one player gets any (massive) benefit, and everyone else loses, it ‘should’ be obvious (even to the biased and hard of thinking) whodoneit.

KF said...

He said he would.....

Anonymous said...

Easiest way to blow up the pipelines is from the inside. Put explosives in a smart pig, and flow the gas to push it along and detonate it either by time delay or by the odometer wheel. The pig launchers are in Russia, I'm guessing, making this all so trivial to do for them.

Heath J said...

This shit is why I'm going to ignore the rest of the larger world and go do chores and milk my cows..

Forward Observer speculates it's Us, the UK Or the Russians.

Aesop said...

And now we enter Round Two of "Wheel Of Torture".

-5 pts. for reading comprehension.
And Russia removed their leverage when they cut off the gas, and tied them to sanctions. It budged Europe, collectively, not one inch.
You should read "The Sun And The Wind" by my namesake, and get back to us.
Russia lost all leverage with the West when they assumed the role of terrorist. No one negotiates with someone at gunpoint.
Now, a non-performing asset pays them huge dividends by painting them as the victims, rather than the perpetrator of the act.

And all that US leverage you assume goes down the toilet the minute we're perceived to have done this, which is exactly where we are now, and Europe wipes their ass with the NATO treaty.

That would make us doing this literally the stupidest thing in this entire sorry-ass banana republic regime, and looking at the tsunami of stupidity that preceded it, that would be saying something.

Likelihood is thus somewhere between 1%, and 0.


Same answer. The US is widely perceived by the worldwide lumpenproletariat as having done this. So any supposed benefit goes down the toilet before it starts. As anyone would expect in 0.2 seconds, before they shitcanned any thought of doing it.

The pittance to be gained from selling Europe LNG would be dwarfed by the backlash for creating the situation as it stands.

Who says "no one was watching"...?
I have no prejudices here. Blowing up the pipeline is in no one's interest but Russia's.
It turns dead weight into political capital, like spinning straw into gold.

@Anon 4:34,
Russia's already had "months of no revenue".
If Ukraine's fingerprints turn up anywhere near this, their war is over in about a minute and a half, and Russia enters Kyiv next Tuesday. Right after all of Europe grants them pariah status greater than Putin's.
And that's as if they could even find the time. last I looked, their hands were rather full at home.
Poland? Same-same.

Remote drones puts this back in the 87 suspects category, including any number of oil exploration companies, from all concerned parties.
But I concur on this not being divers, for reasons I'll illustrate tomorrow.

NEWSFLASH, kimosabe: Putin had already turned the taps to the pipeline off, weeks ago. You could look it up.

The internet moves faster than your mind, apparently. Try and keep up.

Nobody sane wants to prolong this war, nor have it progress to a nuclear exchange, and potential I've warned about explicitly and repeatedly, so I'm not "playing with it". So evidently you haven't paid any attention, going back months and months. Color me shocked.
-20 yards, and loss of down.
So it's clear who wrote a screed, and after all that effort, you couldn't touch on or correctly characterize one single thing I've ever said.
Well played, sir.

Aesop said...

@Anon 5:20,

Explain Russian actions and their imaginary "long-term view" in light of their invasion triggering worldwide sanctions and instant pariah status, their military being decimated, their lightning thrusts on 6 attack axes being blunted in about 48 hours, their significant losses to their Black Sea fleet, the revelation that their assumed military prowess was so much ass-gas, and their pig-headed insistence on continuing the debacle at their own expense, killing off their own troops at a prodigious rate, while turning the territory they claim to be protecting into a combination rubble heap/ abattoir/graveyard.

Best wishes with that.

Blowing up the pipeline is exactly the sort of idiot-savant move they've demonstrated total mastery of going back to invading Ukraine in the first place. Claiming strategic blundering and world-class stupidity isn't in their DNA is risible.
Re-think suggested.

He also said "Potato infrastructure underpants, because flagrant strawberries have no bones! Touch my hairy legs, you lying dog-faced pony soldier!"
So much for what he says.
So that's your whole argument??
Maybe stop banging on that IED with your AK-47.

Stealth Spaniel said...

It looks like The Magic Negro with his wand twirler Valerie Jarrett, have decided to fund the Middle East again. Iran is first choice of course, but who knows what dreadful natural resources they still have access to. But SOMEone in their circle of friends will obviously benefit. Unless Poland is going hard in on diversity, Barak and his first wife will stop this faster than illegals leaving Martha's Vineyard.

Anonymous said...

President Dementia stated they would shut off Nord Stream 2 if Russia engaged in their SMO.
Why would the Russians blow holes in the pipeline'swhen they could just turn some valves and shut it down?
Occam's Razor. The Man who said they (The U.S.) would do it, did it.
Why? The dying U.S. Empire is lashing out. The dollar is dying and the U.S. Empire dies with it.
If Putin is laughing it is because the actions of the current U.S. administration are showing the World how evil and incompetent they are.

Anonymous said...


Here's what Matt Bracken had to say about this via this WRSA link:

I don't agree with Matt on various matters, but on the issue of Putin not having any involvement with the destruction of the pipelines, I agree with him.

The impetus on proving Matt wrong is on you and you alone as you're the one here flinging wholly unfounded accusations against Putin/Russia.

Good're gonna lose!

NorthGunner - The Truth Is It's OWN Defense!

Anonymous said...

"Nobody sane wants to prolong this war" Ike had some sage advice about that. As did JFK. We have a Congress full of heavily lobbied, MIC investors sending countless billions into the fracas every week. It's not just 10% for the big guy. It's for hundreds of career politicians and their homies making once-in-a-career profits (thrice if one counts Iraq & AFG) to say nothing of Wall Street frontrunning every trade that the politicians make. All this money pouring into the 2nd most corrupt country in the world. None of TPTB want this gravy train to end. Where are the negotiations to end the fighting? Give Russia the land that they currently occupy that is filled with Russians who hate Kiev and had been shelled by same ever since we installed the puppet government in 2014. End the madness before someone goes full retard or some Klaus Schwab / Soros lackey sneaks in the big one to usher in the Davos wet dream great reset.

There's a bunch of crazy old men driving this bus, and every sane person wants off it.

Anonymous said...

This is a pretty interesting debate, btw. It's healthier than obediently swallowing whatever the evening news trots out.

Gray Bell said...

Here is one for you to chew on. Ninety percent of the world population does not analyze things
the way you guys do. Biden publicly stated they would shut it down. Doesnt matter who did it at this
point from the PR standpoint. Most people believe the US did it.

Anonymous said...

Old Slavic Proverb: By turning valve you have both carrot and stick. Blow up valve only stick.

Frankly, none of us knows with certainly what happened or who did it.

Anonymous said...

“Anonymous internet commandos.”

Okay nurse, what’s YOUR real name?

Anonymous said...

My guess is the Iranians...
Saw something the other day about the Swedes pulling an unidentifiable drone up back in 2016 (that had explosives in it) from a section of pipeline in their EEZ. The Iranians seem to have gotten pretty good with drones and something like this would hit the Great Satan, the Lesser Satan and all of Europe with a significant amount of chaos.
Think about it; their only goal/interest is chaos and disruption in non-Shiite countries. Economically this is neutral or beneficial to them, and with everyone thinking that it's Vlad or Emperor Poopypants they could slide in and out under the radar...

Bear Claw Chris Lapp said...

Bracken reported yesterday a new pipeline from Norway opened.

Aesop said...

And now we enter Round Three of "Wheel Of Torture". Let's meet the contestants.

@Anon 10:15P,
We've dealt with these objections about ten times already, yet they keep coming up. So let's put a wooden stake through them, for the benefit of the low-information contestants.
I. "Emperor Stumblefuck Poopypants said we'd do it."

1) False. Emperor Poopypants didn't say they US would shut down the pipelines. He said we could. Anyone who keeps trotting that out and misquoting it, go sit in the corner with the cone-shaped Hat Of Shame on your low-comprehension heads. If the dunce cap fits, wear it.
2) Poopypants spews random unintelligible shit out of his mouth 24/7/365/since1965, and has been notably and profoundly senile since before he entered the 2020 presidential campaign. Nothing he says makes sense, matters, nor reveals anything significant about US policy, other than the ironclad proof that he's not the one guiding it. If you think (and so opine) differently: Show. Your. Work.. Prove to the class, on the chalkboard, that Emperor Poopypants is the primary author and guiding architect of US defense and foreign policy, and not a doddering puppet tabula rasa installed as a placeholder for the actual string-pullers. Good luck with that. If you can't do that, any argument based on this point is doomed.

3) You don't publicly announce you're going to do the stupidest thing you could possibly do, and then do it. Emperor Poopypants might do exactly that, which underlines why he's not the one running the show, and never has been.

4) Getting tagged for doing this turns Europe against us, gets sanctions ended in about a minute, destroys any cohesion in NATO for decades, at minimum if not permanently, and locks the Ukraine war into a death spiral of victory-or-death, with a yuuuuge possibility of escalation into global thermonuclear war, while opening up every western and US asset - that would be thousands of them - to a justifiable Russian counter-strike: (mining the Strait of Hormuz, blowing up a US oil rig, pipeline, or terminal and creating a economic and ecological disaster, sabotaging the Panama Canal, or pretty much any one of 30,000 other things) against which we haven't got the attention span nor military capability to even begin to defend.
And even if Biden thought this was a good idea, and ordered it, the entire US military/intelligence/defense/industrial co-operative hasn't lost their god-damned minds, and everyone above the grade of second lieutenant would shoot this idea down 500 different ways at the speed of light, rip its throat out, eat its beating heart, and shit in its lungs, the second anyone, including a doddering C-in-C, suggested it. The mere suggestion of doing it would get anyone stupid enough to bring it forward looking so shit-faced stupid they'd never be seen in the halls of power again, and the stories told about what happened to them afterwards would be used to frighten children in their beds for a thousand years. And that includes even if the suggester was Poopypants.


Aesop said...

II. "Why would the Russians blow holes in the pipeline's when they could just turn some valves and shut it down?"

1) NEWSFLASH For Low Information Commenters:
Russia already did exactly that nearly a month ago. You could look it up:

As we've told other Special People, the Internet moves pretty fast. try and keep up.

2) "You play ball with the Rodina, or you get the bat shoved up your ass."
Russia doesn't use carrot-and-stick. Russia uses carrot-and-fist. Shutting off the gas was the stick. It got them bupkus. Blowing up the pipeline was the fist. It's getting them all the benefits I laid out in the original meme. Its sabotage cost them nothing they can't get back, at Europe's expense if they prevail. If they don't, it was wasted money already. heads they win, tails you lose. Only a fool bets against that hand.

III. Occam's Razor
1) For the Philosophy-Impaired:
William of Occam said that the simplest likely answer in any question was probably the correct one.
Not the facilely quickest gob-smackingly stupid answer.
For all the reasons above, and many more, the sheer suggestion that the US must have done this is gob-smackingly stupid.
The quickest answer isn't the simplest answer.

2) That hordes of the worldwide internet lumpenproletariat latches onto it argues against it, not in favor of it.
It's the same reason you don't ask a meeting of the DNC for intelligent ideas, or go to ABCNNBCBS for thoughtful analysis. A herd of retards gets it wrong almost 100% of the time, and the more complex, the likelier and larger the magnitude of the think-disaster they'll inflict. This is why, in their wisdom, the Founders instituted a republic, and not a democracy. The mob is an ass.

For the twenty-seven future attempts to cite these suggestions as proof, we will henceforth abbreviate our reply to "I", "II", and "III", to save time, electrons, and bandwidth.
We are absolutely certain to need recourse to citing them again and again.

But thanks for finding the borders of the minefield your fellow commenters will nonetheless wander into anyways, despite your example.

Anonymous said...

Anon4:34 here. I don't think you understand the ROV market. ROVs with the capability to hit from moving boat a couple of kilometers away are limited to the oil service industry and the military. The package to launch and recover these is very visible on deck. Since apparently there wasn't one in the area, that puts it in the remote flight category. Industry doesn't use those, only military. Of course these could have been planted last year during ops that were held in the area.

You make my point for me re Ukraine or any other non-US, non-Russian actor. Very big downside to being found out. If the US did it, well, what's anyone going to do about it? The EU is an abused hooker working for her pimp in this war.

My point about months of no revenue is additional months of no revenue beyond the decision point to turn gas back on. This damage is a massive additional penalty. It isn't irreparable, but damned expensive because it was done in a shallow area and seawater flows downhill, flooding much of the line. I maintain Russia has no incentive to damage their asset that wasn't costing them anything currently, and was a negotiating ploy while intact. Now it is much less useful. In your favor is the image damage that if the US blew it up, ... what? Russia was already responsible for cutting off the gas, so were already going to get the blame for the cold winter, economic collapse, and food shortages to come. Nothing. Russia gains nothing from having it appear the US blew up the line.

Aesop said...

I haven't skipped you, but I'll deal with Matt's argument presently. It will deserve a thorough examination, unlike about 95% of what keeps coming in here. But at least most folks are staying on topic, so there's that.

@Anon 11:03P,
All of the MIC money goes away in milliseconds after the first nuke pops.
In fact, a simple act of sabotage on any piece of US infrastructure in reply would probably send the markets into an irrecoverable spin and death spiral, for fear of triggering a widening and nuclear conflict.
Mass greed to the point of insanity is self-defeating.
And wholly unlikely, for all the reasons already laid out above.
Nice try though.
Governments may not act rationally. But their people generally do.

@Gray Bell,
I, above. And III.

@Anon 4:22A,
II, above.

@Anonymous Internet Keyboard Commando,
It's Aesop.
Just as Borepatch is Borepatch, Big Country Expat is Big Country Expat, Silicone Graybeard is Silicone Graybeard, and Concerned American is Concerned American. I could only give you a hundred more examples off the top of my head without breaking a sweat.
Since you're evidently too stupid to figure this out, I'll smart-splain it to those of you in the Stupid Bleachers.

I've commented and blogged under this moniker since years before I began this blog, which was nearly fourteen years ago. I sign my posts, here and elsewhere, and I own my opinions. The fact that I chose not to paint a target on my own back IRL because of millions of Leftard assholes doesn't make me more nefarious than you, just smarter.

And what I write seems to resonate with an ever-growing audience, so I think I might be doing something right.

So stop hiding behind your keyboard, and the illusory concept of online anonymity (the NSA knows your whole life story already), and own your opinions and thoughts. Stop being chickenshit: sign your posts. Own what you say.

Jack Higgins, Mark Twain, and Silence Dogood all said to say "Hi", BTW. You should have taken a chance on the 10th grade. You might have surprised yourself.

The reason people won't do that is because the usual flaming-bags-of-dogshit people want to leave consequence-free on everybody else's internet porches would get them ban-hammered in perpetuity, like maybe half a dozen Usual Suspects here. And then they'd be both anonymous, and unnoticed, and their pwecious feewings would be hurt, and that's just eating too much shit for one little irrelevant guttersnipe to bear, i'n'it?

If that all landed right inside your perimeter, take a chance, and step up. If you can't or won't do that little, enjoy the shitburger of being perpetually irrelevant.

Bonus points: My real name is so bog-common that people that know me IRL can't internet stalk me (and they've tried), because there's literally hundreds of us. And you'd think it was just another nom de plume anyways (after someone smart explained to you what that phrase means). So you'd still have to suck it. Bummer.

@Anon 5:01A,
It's a possibility. Just like the hundreds of others with the requisite means.

Aesop said...

Re: Bracken:

II. Walked right into it.

Then: So the US would blow the pipeline "as winter sets in, people freeze, and factories shut down, leading to mass unemployment, the worst economic depression in a century, and possibly mass riots that could overturn governments" advances the US wish for Europe to continue to fund and support the war to defend Ukraine how, exactly, please?

Blowing that pipeline and plunging Europe into that wouldn't advance US interests a whit. It wouldn't be shooting ourselves in the foot, it would be shooting ourselves in the face. With a shotgun.
And destroy NATO, probably irrevocably.
And let Russia, inarguably the Bad Guy to date, play the Innocent Victim Card.
And hand Russia carte blanche to attack any Western or US infrastructure anywhere in the world, by right of reply.
Which counter-punch might include or escalate all the way to Global Thermonuclear War.

Oh, yeah, riiiight, we'd totally do that, because everyone in charge, down to privates, is that blisteringly stupid and retarded.

No sale. Re-think all of that, Matt.
Even USN ensigns aren't that bag-of-hammers stupid, and I've seen ensigns.

"Only America can send them [Europe] replacement liquified natural gas."
You could look it up.
Kuwait. Oman. Saudi. UAE. Yemen. Indonesia. Borneo. Brunei. Australia. And the US.
The Congo, Canada, and New Guinea soon.
This took one mouse click to find:

And that map/list is 10 years old. [Hint: There are now many more LNG embarkation facilities available worldwide than in 2012.]

So much for "Only America..."

Russia hasn't killed their golden goose.
They've simply refused to sell Europe any more eggs.

Poor conclusion, based on bad analysis.
Sorry, but there it is.
Bracken knows better. Or ought to.

Phelps said...

I think Aesop has a error on the whole bono part of cui bono.

You keep listing things that aren't benefits as if they matter. Wrecking your car to keep the teenager from driving it isn't necessary when you have the keys in your pocket. Removing the distributor cap isn't on the same level as dropping a grenade in the backseat.

All of your arguments are based on the premises that 1) Putin is shockingly stupid and 2) the US authorities are exceptionally competent and cautious. I think that both are false, but if either one is false, then your whole argument falls apart.

"Poland and/or the US did it" require no magical thinking, no strawmen walking into your bonfires, no emotional vindictiveness, etc. It simply requires either/or Poland to see Russia taking Ukraine and being on their border as a threat, and the ability to tax all the gas going to Germany (who they hate) as a benefit, and for the US to see Germany freezing in the winter as a potential crack in their coalition to try to impoverish Russia.

You portray Putin like a white guy in a Spike Lee movie. I just don't see it.

kemp said...

This gives Putin the perfect out for not sending gas to Germany. "I was going to open the valves but now I can't."

Anonymous said...

Iran is plausible. Israel maybe to stir things up. But why not the uke's? Yes, IF caught, blowback is huge and ending no doubt, but if fingers point elsewhere, like Russia, then consolidated front of NATO, UK and US against Russia to continue funding zelenski (and most members of Congress and military industrial complex) retirement fund. A gamble the uke's may be willing to take if can frame it properly with the correct evidence?

Anonymous said...

And to followup on the uke's being a culprit. Only remaining NG.line from Russia to EU runs through Ukraine to which they are having a tariff battle w Gazprom. Leverage for revenues and support for uke's as is only remaining gas line? Yes new line from Nord and existing through Turkey, but keeps focus on securing Ukraine for the EU/Germany. If they get caught, all bets are off...but first they have to get caught.

Feather Blade said...

"And all that US leverage you assume goes down the toilet the minute we're perceived to have done this, which is exactly where we are now, and Europe wipes their ass with the NATO treaty."

How likely is it that Europe will kick the US out of NATO based on this?

If they do, then that puts a lot of weight on the "Russia did it" side, since TPTB in the US wouldn't willingly give up any international influence that they have...

Survivormann99 said...

Sorry, Aesop. We differ on this one. I will wait for more dust to settle before I agree that Russia is the perp here. Even if the Germans kiss and make up with Russia now saying, "Have your way with Ukraine. All is forgiven," it will take a few years before new pipelines can be constructed. Meantime, Germany freezes and Russia loses massive revenue.

Here's what bothers me in particular: If I wanted to keep my landscaping from getting water, why would I set a C4 charge and blow up my lawn in order to take out the water line when I have a perfectly good control box with which I can simply turn off the valve?

Survivormann99 said...


Oh, yeah. I forgot to mention in my comment that, when anyone is trying to figure out what happened, Biden can be seen twice on videos before Russia invaded Ukraine, saying that, if Russia invaded, the US would take out Nord Stream I and II.

How can "Affirmative Action pick Karine Jean-Pierre" walk Biden's warnings back now? Good luck with that.

Aesop said...

Round Five?

@Anon 4:34/6:57A

RE: ROVs: There is no requirement to assume this was launched by a remote ROV from a moving boat kilometers away. That would work, but it's only one option out of twenty. You could literally slide a waterproofed explosive device hooked to a carabiner on an anchor line from a rowboat and achieve the same effect, with any timing device(s) you'd care to name, including a simple electrical detonator line and blasting machine. The dumbasses trying to catch the shark with the wife's pot roast in Jaws had the requisite tech for that.

If the US did this and Europe found out, they'd whip from "F*** Putin!" to "Yankees Go Home!" so fast you'd sprain a muscle watching them. Putin's a high-potential existential threat to them. But consigning them to starve and freeze would be a certainty, and they'd dump us like sitting on a red-hot stove.

Name one smart thing Putin has done since February 23rd of this year. Best wishes with that errand.
My only assumption with US authorities is that they aren't all dumber than a bag of hammers, nor willing to blindly follow Mr. Magoo off the cliff if he even had the wit to order them there. You're overstating a weak to non-existent case, and it won't fly.

Nothing I wrote requires any magical thinking, nor contains any strawmen, nor contains any emotional vindictiveness. Putin is who he's always been, since at least 1975. Russia doing this is both within their historical skillset, and matches precisely the sorts of maskirovka and dezinformatsiya ops they've run since the guy in Putin's chair was called tsar.

Putin is not the white guy in a Spike Lee movie. He's a white guy squaddie in Zulu Dawn. He fell for the bull, and now he's getting the horns and the loins.
If you can't see that, perhaps get better glasses.

@Anon 8:58
The Ukes would be risking literal and total annihilation if caught, their "navy" is non-existent, and they're 300 miles away, and would have to cross through Poland just to get to where they could mount the op, and theoretically, both the US and Germany (not to mention Russia) were all watching the pipeline, and the people who didn't do it, know they didn't do it. The Ukes or Poles would likely be outted in about 5 minutes.

ALCON: Poland has had quite enough of being the bone between Western Europe and Russia, thankyouverymuch, and mainly wants to ensure Russia doesn't welcome them back into its warm embrace. Consigning all of Europe to freezing, starvation, economic catastrophe, riot, and revolution would be the short ticket to becoming expelled from NATO, and Vlad's next territorial conquest, and just about as fast as Stalin got it in 1939.

Europe crumbles; Ukraine falls, US is shut out of Europe in perpetuity.
Strategic hat-trick for Vlad, right there. Even Khruschev and Brezhnev couldn't pull that off in 40 years of trying.

Putin has already turned off the valve. Answer II above.
That Putin-poleon scheme flopped. This was the next idea. Bold, clever, and working on the masses, but not so much on the governments, who are already figuring this was Russia, first, last, and only.

I, above.
He isn't running anything, and he spoke of capabilities, not intentions.

jadair04 said...

So Vlad busted his own pipeline... Okay.

Anonymous said...

The Ukes could have hired a third party to do it. Heaven knows we've sent enough money to them to outfit the best operators U$D can buy. A half dozen qualified divers, one or two experienced UDT types, some det cord and timers and they're in business.

That being said, any non-Russian actor pulling such a stunt without the knowledge and approval of the US would be forever on the run for playing in the DoD/CIA/State Department's sandbox. Even the UK wouldn't dare attempt such an action without Washington's approval. Can't see Ukraine risking doing anything that endangers those weekly pallets of cash and Stingers showing up.

So it distills down to us or them. Who benefits more?

Neil does a pretty fair job of looking at potential actors:

Aesop said...

Actually, he misses entire libraries of salient points regarding Russia's pros and cons, and draws the wrong conclusions. He's evidently wholly unfamiliar with the fact that Russia had already cut the pipeline off a month earlier, and was getting zero revenue from it, nor likely to anytime soon.
And he can't conceive of even one of the main points I raised.
And overall, his "analysis" is only slightly better than the blather on the MSM.
That's not a complement.

Anonymous said...

@Aesop, let's say arguendo that you are right. That this whole thing would not be in America's interest. How has the entire fiasco in Ukraine since Obummer been in America's interest? A good share of the reason Bidet is sitting in Trump's chair is Nuland and the traitorous Vindman put Ukraine's interests above America's.

The pipelines still extant run through Poland and Ukraine. Even the southern route comes through Ukraine. If anyone has anything to gain, it's Ukraine, and to a lesser extent, Poland. They get paid for every bit of gas that flows through their territory, and, note, they did not shut off the flow through this whole "war". It's not until Germany starts getting a little squishy that this comes up, in a way that strengthens both Ukraine and Poland.

Anonymous said...

I am watching for more "industrial accidents" shutting down US LNG export facilities, like what happened in Texas this summer, taking out 20% of our LNG export capacity, or accidental explosions of LNG tankers at sea.
Germany especially, but most of Western Europe generally are screwed without gas this winter, and because of the lack of fertilizer and the shutdown of industries dependent on cheaper gas, are even more screwed next year.
Allowing Putin to turn on the gas, and save Westetn Europe, at his price, would not be in the interests of the US, but that presumes that Putin wants Western Europe to survive intact.
He may want the chaos that is coming, and if so, having the world blame the US for it is just gravy.
I will wait and see what comes out over time, and prepare as I can for the mess that is likely rolling down on us.
John in Indy

Aesop said...

What is or is not in America's interest isn't the issue.
Whether we have the means to cast a vote in it does.

We didn't invade Ukraine.
But we certainly have the capability to blow up a pipeline or three.
Just very little motive to do so, that withstands a smell test.

Ukraine and Poland have so much more to lose than to gain as to make the lemon not worth the squeeze.
The truth always comes out, and in either country's case, that would be an extinction-level national event.

Putin comes out tomorrow and announces on live TV "I did it. Sue me." and that's the end of the discussion. That would be the total downside for Russia.

Anybody else does that? Grave and catastrophic consequences.

By commission or omission, Russia did this.
For a view of Russian deliberate/non-deliberate culpability, read Lawdog's take:

JimR said...

"Nobody sane wants to prolong this war," Maybe so, but since the actions of the US and the West have done precisely that...

Aesop said...

The US has given Ukraine materiel and support to successfully repel an illegal invasion.

Prolonging the war has been Putin's steadfast refusal to wake up, smell the coffee, and toddle his ass back to Russia.

The quickest way to end a war is to surrender, but that's not in Ukraine's interest.

Russia perpetuating the conflict beyond futility is the problem here, but then again, they never should have embarked on this course of action to begin with.

Russia doubling and quadrupling down?: "The definition of insanity is trying the same thing over and over and expecting different results." - Einstein

John Wilder said...

(gets more popcorn) best comment section, ever!

ErisGuy said...

Regarding other nations’ self-interest or even the self-interest of your own nation, which ever that may be: the conceit that leaders of nations and their lieutenants are rational actors (by one’s arguable definition of what is a rational act) can’t pass the smell test, the laugh test, or history test.

The 20th century alone shows that leaders of vast and powerful states as well as negligible ones are less rational than, well, anyone not confined to mental hospital.

Take WW1. Who ordered this up? The head of Serbian secret police ordered the assassination of the Archduke. That’s all it takes.

Who blew up the pipeline? Disgruntled third-level bureaucrat with connections to terrorists in any of a dozen nations?

Take WW2. Who ordered that up? Great leaders of second-rate powers who thought invading Russia or angering the USA would, yes, further their nations’ own self-interest.

Who blew up the pipeline? Biden! That drooling moron. Jill Biden and the cabal governing in Biden’s name? I thought we were talking rational self-interest here. “As in it isn’t in X’s self interest to.” Macron, because he wants to really shaft Germany and take over leadership of the EU? King Harald V’s crack squad of secret spetnaz because Norway would make tons of money for decades?

Aesop said...

@Eris Guy,

That sounds oh-so-sophisticated, but I labor under no such conceit.
The drawbacks to such an asinine operation being launched from the US, or any NATO country, would require not just a clinically crazy leader and clinically crazy minions, it would require bog-standard full-blown psychosis from them, all the way down to the lowest levels, inclusive.

So how long d'ya think you could run so much as an airline with a staff of all-crazy personnel?
Never would happen.

People who are that crazy have no ability to plan and execute the operations required, for that, or this incident, and sane people anywhere in the pipeline simply wouldn't do it. Not even "just following orders". Because they know that the guilty always come to trial, eventually, which is always something that crazy people dismiss out of hand at every step when considering their actions, because they can't reason abstractly.

I literally see this firsthand every week, and I know whereof I speak.

Your analysis inappropriately conflates stupidity and miscalculation on a grand scale with just another day at the office. The trouble with that is that operations once wars were begun followed no such initial pattern of foolishness, proving only that - exactly like a deep hole - it's far easier to get into a war, for whatever reasons, than it is to get out of it, let alone foresee what it's going to entail. War is chess, and most people have checkers minds. If not tic-tac-toe minds.

As Russia proves, daily.

BTW, Macron's people will be just as cold and hungry as Germany, and besides, his mommy would never give him permission.
The Norwegians won't even deport Muslims or end socialism, so blowing up a pipeline to make a buck is right out.

Phelps said...

The drawbacks to such an asinine operation being launched from the US, or any NATO country, would require not just a clinically crazy leader and clinically crazy minions, it would require bog-standard full-blown psychosis from them, all the way down to the lowest levels, inclusive.

This administration, from the highest to the lowest, has kept trespassers in prison for over 18 months, sent the FBI to investigate school board speakers as terrorists, demand post-birth abortion rights, claim that there are an infinite number of genders, let people who murder Republicans for being Republicans out on bail, shipped arms to Syrian jihadists, had a SWAT team raid the former President's home, wiretapped Congress while Congress was investigating them for wiretapping Congress, demand that schools hold Drag Queen Story Hour for kindergarteners, teach CRT at the military academies, put women who can't conn ships in command of our Navy ships, and are trying to prosecute lawyers for representing defendants.

What's the difference between that and "full blown psychosis?" Blowing up a pipeline and thinking they can blame the Russians for it?

Aesop said...

Conflating apples with oranges is a fallacy.

Show the class the unbroken link of psychosis from the White house to the guy putting the explosives in place, or find a similar chain that long, and you can make the argument.

Waving your arms and telling us all the crazy shit some part of government does is not the same thing as demonstrating that the entire defense establishment in an unbroken chain down to the guy locking out the hatch on the action team plus the guys on the other side of it, is balls-out insane, is a bridge you can't build.

Phelps said...

Waving your arms and telling us all the crazy shit some part of government does is not the same thing as demonstrating that the entire defense establishment in an unbroken chain down to the guy locking out the hatch on the action team plus the guys on the other side of it, is balls-out insane, is a bridge you can't build.

This is literally your argument against Putin.

Aesop said...

And if Russia was a democratic republic, rather than a police state dictatorship, you'd have a valid point.

Yet again.

Which also underlines the very low likelihood that it was Ukraine, or any NATO nation.

If this wasn't just multiple failures from incompetence, it points to a top-down command government model, and the number of states in play that fit that bill all start east of Poland and Ukraine.

Randy S. said...

Just a little food for thought. I know it's all cool at the moment to blame either Russia or the USA, but how about Ukraine? Hear me out. Ukes send a boat into the area as a fishing boat or whatever. Now the depth is nothing that a saturation diver cant do, they do it all the time. A couple of charges set and they go their merry way. They wait for the right time, with one or the other leader mouthing off in just the right way. Send the signal ELF and bam. You now have a situation where one blames the other, and it sucks the big bad US into a full blown war with the Russkies. False flag all the way.

Aesop said...

It's the Ukes pulling an ELF set out of their tailpipes where you run off into the weeds.

Michael said...

I think the premise you started from is incorrect. You suppose that President Poopy Pants wants to preserve the US. He does not. He is in league with the Globalists and wishes to see it destroyed as much as they do. I believe the US did sabotage the pipeline. First to keep the EU in line and show them who's the boss and second to keep the EU from doing an end around and start negotiations with Russia for the coming winter's fuel. The US can further control the EU by eliminating the temptation to suck off of the Russian energy tit while at the same time showing how magnanimous it is and give just enough raw energy to the EU to survive the coming winter. Currently, all of the EU is upset with the US and think it to be a joke. Most likely the sabotage will be an escalation event into WWIII and the US has few true allies if it gets involved in a war with Russia and China. Regardless, if the entire world is angry with the US it will be easier for Poopy Pants and the Globalists to destroy it. The US is the last bastion of freedom in the world and in the eyes of the Globalists it is also the last major stumbling block preventing their warped idea of a NWO from being realized.

Just my two cents.

Aesop said...


Can we get serious? If you truly believe I think Emperor Stumblefuck Poopypants has the best interests of the US at heart, at any point in his entire miserable life, you've either had a profound stroke, or else mised the last 200 posts on the topic of Poopypants.

If the US sabotaged the pipeline, when (not if) that truth comes to light - and it always does - NATO dissolves overnight, Europe becaomes Russia from the Urals to the Hebrides, and the US becomes a Turd World failed state.
The is like suggesting someone sawed both his legs off to run faster.

And while Poopypants might try that, the entire country, nor even just the leadership of it, is not that barking bugfuck insane.

And they would not destroy the country, they'd literally pull the entire world down around their heads, and be tried and executed for treason at the speed of wire and a nearby light pole, by noon the day the news came out, long before the rest of the world got a crack at them.

That's literally a 2AM dorm room acid trip suggestion, and entirely unserious.

Michael said...

I'm sorry to say but there you go again presuming that the Globalist care. The whole idea is to destroy the US and any other government power. These all need to be destroyed to put into place their New World Order.

Do you really believe that any of the Presidents in the past 30 years haven't done their best to purge the US military of the brightest and best. For crying out loud they abandoned millions of dollars in equipment in Afghanistan. The Navy is rusting in place and falling apart because our sailors don't know how to chip and scrape paint or how to maintain their ships. They can't sail from port A to B without ramming into another Navy ship. The Marines are having some sort of identity crisis and don't know what their function is. The Air Force now has to redefine their mission since the Space Force opened up. The Army isn't much better. None of the branches can meet their recruiting needs due to the lack of qualified individuals we call US citizens and are now going outside our borders to recruit and fill billets in all the branches. The readiness of the US military is in the crapper and has been for years.

When I served it was unthinkable that the US military would turn on the people of the US. Now?!? Damn straight they would! Most of them aren't US citizens and the would walk all over people while flying their rainbow flags and wearing their high heeled combat boots.

At one point in time our country was feared because we had the greatest military ever assembled in the world. We also were feared because every citizen had a rifle over the door and a revolver under the pillow. We still have the largest standing army of citizens but I would guess that most have never fired a round down range or know how to strip and clean a weapon, even if their life depended upon it.

I think it's time for you to wake up from your slumber and take a good look around. You've missed a lot in the past 30 years.

Aesop said...

You should wake up from yours. I've not only missed none of that, I've documented all that and worse on this very blog. None of that is news.

Hysterical handwaving isn't proving any points.

The psychosis ("inability to recognize reality from fantasy") is anyone anywhere thinking Putin is an honorable man doing good things. That's quite simply delusional, and contrary to every bit of evidence about him since ever.

Abandon that level of nonsense, see all the players for what they really are, and abandon cartoonish caricatures, and come at this again, and let's talk.

"Globalists" aren't fighting this conflict. On either side.
The people egging it on from both sides all have agendas, as ever.
But they're not the ones driving the tanks and pulling the triggers, and never are.

Get back to first principles, and stop trying to weave cotton-candy castles in the clouds.

Michael said...

Of course the Globalists aren't fighting this conflict. They never have nor will they ever. They don't like to get their hands dirty, they use the useful idiots to do their dirty work.

There you go again starting from a wrong premise: THERE ARE NO SIDES. The agenda has been and always will be a New World Order.

As for the ones driving the tanks and pulling the triggers. I was once one of those guys. I took an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution from all enemies foreign and domestic. It took me a long time to realize that not all of the enemies of the US are outside our boarders.

If you haven't realized it yet, this isn't a conventional war that will end by using the traditional methods. I hope and pray no nukes will be deployed but again this isn't a war that involves just men. We are truely in a spiritual war and there's no amount of bullets or blood that will stop what's coming. I can explain it but why, watch the video and read the book.

God Speed

Aesop said...

Every generation since the Apostles thought they were in the Last Days, sure God would be coming back at any minute.
One day, one generation will be correct.

In the mean time, Jefferson's words are the only way to fly:
"Resistance to tyranny is obedience to God."
Notably, TJ didn't specify foreign or domestic either.

Phelps said...

The psychosis ("inability to recognize reality from fantasy") is anyone anywhere thinking Putin is an honorable man doing good things.

There you go with the strawman again. The premise that we did it has absolutely nothing to do with Putin being good or honorable. It has everything to do with us being incompetent, stupid and arrogant. We are all those things.

A bad, dishonorable Putin has no reason to blow up his own pipeline, just like a hypothetical good, honorable Putin. We have tons of reasons, if we are dishonest and duplicitous.

Do you really think that there is a level of dishonesty and duplicitousness that this administration is incapable of?

Aesop said...


But I believe that there is a level of dishonesty and duplicity this administration is incapable of getting everyone else to go along with.

It's the reason tinfoil hat conspiracy theories always sound retarded: because they are.

Reltney McFee said...

I wonder if sociopathy, rather than psychopathy, is the pathology in play?