Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Any Day Now™


(AMSTERDAM: Moscow Times) "An elite Russian naval infantry unit made up of mostly mobilized troops has suffered a crushing defeat near the eastern Ukrainian town of Vuhledar, Russian media reported Monday, citing one of the survivors. 

The 5,000-strong 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade has been “nearly destroyed” after it lost up to 300 marines per day in Russia's assault on the coal-mining town, according to comments by the Ukrainian defense forces to Politico on Sunday.

A surviving marine who spoke with the 7x7 regional news site said the losses were so severe that one landing assault company had only eight men remaining, while many others were taken prisoner.

“Those who survived were said to be deserters,” the unnamed marine was quoted as saying, estimating the brigade’s losses at 500 or more men killed.

Citing his commander, the marine told 7x7 that the brigade — nearly 90% of whom were recently mobilized soldiers — did not expect to return to Russia alive or unscathed."

Relax, Put-tards: I'm sure the Moscow sources are totally lying about this latest Russian "victory". We'll all get to see how things go when Russia launches its next offensive, which launch schedule makes NASA look reliable by comparison.

Personally, I refrain from further comment, except to echo this classic Tom Hanks response to a similarly shattering turn of events:


Bear Claw Chris Lapp said...

I believe everything I read on the interwebz and what my government tells me.

Anonymous said...

Why was the 155th GUARDS Naval Infantry made up of 90% newly mobilized and criminally undertrained and untrained cannon fodder?

Could it be because the original, pre-war, supposedly well trained soldiers were wiped out in the first 10 months of war? That the 155th was an empty shell after their soldiers had been wiped up.

The real threat to Ukraine from Russia would be mobilized or conscripted soldiers put into units, and given effective training for six months or so, and then committed to battle.


Anonymous said...

There is a lot of discussion, discourse and commentary amongst the blogs I read concerning who is winning or who is going to win this war. Personally, I would like to see some discussion and thoughts on what happens when or if one of the parties involved “wins” the war. What is the endgame?

I’m not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but here are some of my questions. Would Putin, indeed, accept defeat? Would the FUSA accept the defeat of the Ukes? What does the post war socio economic scenario look like for both countries? If the Ukes win, we can be certain that the FUSA will funnel billions more of our tax dollars to them to rebuild their country.

Respectfully, HQ

Aesop said...

Feel free to offer up better sources Bear Claw. No one's stopping you.
This was neither "the internet" nor your government though, Bummer for your comment.

Considering the source offered was a Russian-based and Russian-run site, which only moved to Amsterdam from Moscow when Putin passed draconian speech and press restrictions after his drunken bums got their asses handed to them in the first weeks of the war, and that it was sourcing current Russian Moscow-based press reports, you're going to have a tough time topping this one for accuracy.

Survivormann99 said...

U.S. Grant lost almost as many soldiers in the first six weeks of the 1864 Overland Campaign as Robert E. Lee had in his entire army.

Grant, while not the tactical master that Lee was, figured out that, as long as he kept fighting, he could beat Lee. The South was running out of men and Lee couldn't afford to win many battles. History proved that Grant was right.

This war in Ukraine is becoming a war of attrition. The Russian Spring Offensive could kick off any day now. The issue is whether Putin can maintain the population's will to fight. In Vietnam, you may recall, America's military never lost an engagement. What the American politicians and population lost was the will to fight.

All we can do is to watch closely what happens in the next six months.

BTW, you have been curiously silent about Seymour Hershman's report concerning how Biden took out the Nord Stream Pipelines.

Aesop said...


Re: Hershman
Only on this blog.

FTR, Hersh's entire source list for his naked assertions consists of the Easter Bunny, the Underpants Gnome, and the spackle in his own diapers.

His baseless assertions were as recockulous at the time when made by others as they are months later by him: worth exactly Jack, and Shit.

I'm open to actual evidence. Him writing it isn't that.

Grant had more men under arms than Putin has now.
And unlike Putin-poleon's generals and the drunken bumpkin Potemkin Army, he had some claim to bare military competence.

Russia may yet prevail, for some values of that word, in Ukraine. (And by doing so, slam both fists into an epic tar-baby that will make Afghanistan 1979 something to remember fondly, in comparison). And even that would require a sea change in their competence, unseen based on all available evidence, coming up on a full year of Epic Fail in about ten more days.

They could also lose their asses, and be looking at a total Yugoslavian-style national meltdown, and trying to fend off a new Golden Horde with less than half their current strength.

In the middle, they could simply retire Putard kinetically, and only be hamstrung and crippled international pariahs for another 50 years or so.

There is no option whereby they claim milityary victory, and everything goes back to a relatively happy 2021 status quo ante, where all the rest of Europe and the world wipes their collective brows, and says "Thank heavens that nonsense is over!", and goes back to business with Vlad as usual.
That ship sailed on the Moskva.

Sweden and Finland want to join NATO. Putin trades one country opposing him for two, and both far more capable, while facing NATO ringing his country from half the compass points west.

After having his vaunted military prowess and "superiority" demonstrated as the Potemkin Army it is, and probably always was, since 1946, after shredding up to a quarter of his actual combat-ready assets.

Own goal.

I'm getting popcorn, but this isn't a drama.
It's a comedy, verging on pure farce.

Joe in PNG said...

Putin lost the war about a year ago. Continuing it just leaves him a long list of ever worsening options.
It also brings Russia closer to Poland, and I know the Poles have not forgotten or forgiven all the centuries of oppression and murder the Russians brought.

Michael said...

Aside from the article posting the source was Ukranian and a few minutes of google fu showed the "Moscow Times" is OWNED by a Finnish news group (Not Russian). Then a moment reading carefully through the Wikipedia for Moscow Times and I'd say

Pure Propaganda.

Buy lots of popcorn, the show will go on and the ending might be a surprise.

Aesop said...

Written and edited by Russians, based (until last spring) in Moscow, not Helsinki.
And one source was Ukrainian, the rest were reports from inside Moscow.

Like I said in the article, cheer up and don't get your panties all a-twist, I'm sure they didn't mean what they said, because it was Russia saying it.

Vlad says he's winning, and he'd never lie about that, right?
They're winning so hard now, they've had to draft 500,000 additional troops since this glorious travelling victory show first went on the road.

Enjoy the spectacle. The duration may be a surprise, but the ending won't be a surprise to most people watching; just to the ones watching through rose-colored glasses.

Joe in PNG said...

Here we go again. Report comes out that Russia isn't doing good. Putard NPC's REEEE!!! back with "GLOBALHOMO LIES!!! RUSSIA STRONK!" Then events show that the reports were right and Russia isn't doing good.

Now, an actual thinking person would ponder the fact that maybe they are wrong, as they keep getting it wrong. But an NPC just reacts according to their programming, no thinking needed.

Survivormann99 said...


I am not arguing that Russia won't win, but I do believe that, with Ukraine's battlefield successes, Putin will have to contend with increasingly serious resistance to the war by the Russian population as an ever-increasing number of body bags are shipped home and, potentially, with assassination attempts that will follow.

As long as he can maintain the Russian population's will to fight, if there is a race to the bottom of military age men, Russia has the stronger hand. Grant did the same with Lee by bleeding the South dry of fresh men.

In some respects, it's much like playing no limits poker with Elon Musk.

Anonymous said...

Moscow Times is published by Sanoma News that is Finnish slightly leftist group. How much they are Russian fan boys is anybody's guess but generally Finnish left has had Russian sympathies even after Soviet fall for some strange reason.

Tucanae Services said...

Someone tell me if I am all wet.... Two factoids:

1) About 6 months into this 'special op' the Ukes for several weeks were popping off RU field generals like I eat popcorn watching a good movie. The assumption made by many was...

2) The lower tier officer corps are reasonably incompetent such that one stars were directing actions exposing themselves. A situation that a noncom would be handling in any Western force.

The Vuhledar outcome might suggest that (1) & (2) are still in effect. If they are and the Ukes can find, isolate and eliminate colonels and higher continuously at what point does command and control of RU forces collapse?