Tuesday, December 31, 2019

The 2019 Quincy Adams Wagstaff Lecture

{We are late with this year's lecture, but thought it fitting for the last post of the year. - A.}

"You asked for this lecture, and you're going to get it, good and hard.
These are my principles.
If you don't like them, I have other ones."

Wherever you're reading this, you've had unmistakable evidence that things aren't going to go all rosy. Perhaps ever again. Perhaps just for a long dark winter of the soul, and/or of the entire civilization. There has been more than one Dark Age period in human history, and they will happen again. You may very well get to see this firsthand, and experience life amidst it. Howsoever long or briefly.

You've had a respite of some 37 months to get your metaphysical crap together in one bag, and use the time prudently.

If you've squandered that lead time, woe unto you.

Yes, on one hand, 1/4 of the federal judiciary is appointees of this administration. Three more judges appointed in the Ninth Circus flips it, and frees eleven western states back to common sense, and a decent shot at the rule of law. Sometimes.

That ain't nothin'.

The minions of Leftardia have shot everything they can at the current president, short of actual bullets, and achieved nothing, save cementing his popularity, and virtually putting a lock on his re-election next November, while chaining themselves to a concrete-filled floor safe and hurling themselves off a skyscraper.

That ain't nothin' either.

But it doesn't make the dollar solvent, or the economy implosion-proof.
The Leviathan that is the federal government remains untrimmed to any notable degree  (save the width of shelf space required for current US Code. Huzzah!).
And the handmaidens of jackbooted thuggery, especially at the federal level, continue unabated and unhindered in their ceaseless quest to saddle you, collar you, and put the spurs to you to fund their unbridled destruction of liberty and freedom, and you're still paying for that, and handsomely, at least if you're in the 50.4% of America that works for a living instead of voting for one.

So even with another five years of POTUS Sticking It To The Man (sometimes), January 20, 2025 is still coming as sure as the sun rising, and any time between now and then, plus a stray heartbeat, and you're looking at President Pence. Who is not the Orange Man Bad blunt instrument chosen to burn the mother down.

So at any time, things could go from mediocre to abysmal.

The far greater likelihood is that owing to desperation and lack of other options, your would-be communist overlords from the Uniparty are going to kick off the ball, to usher in their planned Final Solution, and strangle the weakening experiment that remains of the Republic, and all it represents.

If you can think, and would be free, they hate you, and they want you dead.

Speaking from behind enemy lines, some places already feel the state's tender caresses more and more, exactly as Boston was getting the most love from King George long before 1776 rolled around on the calendar.

We don't know how many things, or where, might kick things off to go really bad, but any doubt that they're almost certain to do so is disappearing like fog on a summer morning, even for the most clueless Norm the Normie.

Whether it's just you, a nuclear family, extended family, or tribe of like-minded individuals, you have a hierarchy of absolute necessities for life.

You can survive three seconds without Safety.
You can survive three minutes without Air.
You can survive three hours without Shelter.
You can survive three days without Water.
You can survive three weeks without Food.

All of the above require tools and training to obtain and maintain.
Which takes time and deliberate effort.
Costs money.
Requires fuel, power, and other resources.
Necessitates a secure homestead.

Of the above, what have you got locked down?
What needs more work just to achieve the bare minimums?
What have you forgotten, or ignored?

Having a job is nice.
The above is what it's going to take to survive to get to that job, and hopefully, continue to survive long after that job (or anything related to it) is a distant memory.

Anything less than adequate effort in every regard above makes you nothing but another coral animal in the future reef of life, rendered dead and fossilized as a supplement to what survives beyond you.

If life strikes you as a worthwhile occupation, and ye would a long and happy one, with offspring who may surpass what you've seen and done, it requires deliberate effort.

Get ready, mentally, physically, materially, and spiritually for what is nearly certainly coming, right at you, like a freight train, whether you like it or not.

And get cracking on getting ready.
We are entering one of those eras where the Universe is about to demonstrate that it doesn't usually grant second chances to the lazy, the foolish, the stupid, and the unprepared, and no excuses will be sufficient nor accepted.

Take that reality well and truly to heart.
Or else go and make your funeral arrangements, and set your affairs in order.

No one gets out of this life alive. But the fortunate, the prepared, and the diligent, may at least have some say about when, where, and how they make the transition.

Now go, and face the new decade intelligently and diligently.


Anonymous said...

Listen to and take to heart the Mike and the Mechanics "Silent Running" the times are a changing and trouble is nigh. Disinformation and the ability to hide your valued things (to include your family sometimes) beats a loud mouth and a MAGA hat in the enemies lair.

Accept that you may become a Non-Person with out banking-credit-electricity-legal employment-housing-medical care or rule of law as described in the Constitution. Do you have a work around for this situation? An AR will not give your family a warm place to sleep friends, nor food.

If it's electronic accept it can be turned OFF or turned AGAINST you. Do we carry a surveillance device called a cell phone everywhere we go? You KNOW it's a microphone and a GPS device yes?

Never fight from your porch. The nail that protrudes WILL be hammered. Any group that has meetings has either weak loudmouths or 3 letter agents inside, BOTH are a disaster.

As Sun Tzu might say look to your strengths and the enemies weakness. Fighting the spear point is a recipe for failure, with out the supporting shaft it is soon worthless.

Old NFO said...

Well said. And I WILL wish you a Happy New Year! dammit... :-)

stormsailor1981 said...

yeah, you can feel the tension. something somewhere is going to fracture and the whole false dichotomy is going to fall. watch out for your topknot and Happy New Year.

Borepatch said...

And I thought that *I* had a downer of a New Years' Eve post. Go, Aesop! ;-)

Can't say you're wrong, of course. But happy new year anyway!

Jim Scrummy said...

Happy New Year! And Yep. Study, think, and train, that's my mantra these days.

Stealth Spaniel said...

I got a perfect 4.0 in college, but damn, Professor Aesop! You simply do not grade on a curve! I'll take any practical advice you give. 🍎 Happy New Year!!

McChuck said...

Happy New Year! May #current_year be better than the previous.

Matt Bracken said...

Over dozens of centuries soldiers died without knowing who was going to win their contemporary war, and still the fought.
European Crusaders sold everything and then marched, sailed and marched toward Jerusalem. Most never saw Europe again, and still they fought.
Ditto with our revolution, Civil War 1, WW1, WW2 and so on.
The Roman Empire fell and Europe slid into a dark age, but life went on for the prepared who also had a little luck to be in the right place at the right time.
In the 21st Century we have been conditioned to always expect a definitive outcome at the end of the movie or TV show.
Reality isn't like that. You choose your values, your tribe, your location, and then you get ready to fight like all the ones who came before you.
Nothing is guaranteed. Any of us can die face down in the mud, to become buzzard bait.
But we're still going to fight.

Bri2301 said...

Stormsailor says it well. There is a "tension" that you can feel about. I don't think most of the Progressive Left gets that and therefore has no thought of easing up. If anything, the opposite had occurred, they're doubling down on their assault on traditional Americans.

Do prepare for the variety of things that could affect you and your family. Take care of you and yours, body and soul. Have the capability, skills and mindset to defend what's important to you.

Don't underestimate our foes. They're real, playing for all the marbles and as they'll occasionally reveal, ruthless and quite willing to do as they please for "the greater good" , which you are not a part of...

If you're of an age, use that experience for our benefit. Knowledge and experience can be more useful guiding and assisting than slowing the youngsters down. But then as a funny t-shirt says, old age and treachery will overcome youth and enthusiasm... Use your skills as advantages when the time comes. Always try to pick the ground you'll fight over (literally and figuratively).

Anonymous said...

Great to see my Team Guy Brother here in comments. As ever he is spot on; nothing is guaranteed. We WILL fight on. We will not compromise our values. Fighting smart is always to be preferred and fortune most often rewards the prepared.
The dark thought that nags me is the possibility of the Davos crowd engineering a crash in order to bring the President down. Yes, I've been working on the precept that the economy most likely will crash (I frankly expected it long before this).
Ah well; thank you Brother Aesop for your blog, I wish you and yours health, happiness and prosperity in the coming years. The same to Brother Bracken, lineman and the rest of the cognoscenti.
Boat Guy

Fred ∆ said...

We partisans of the One Shot Paddy Boomerwaffen salute the California Raconteur!

May you blow hard and mighty for another decade, Huzzah! Huzzah! Huzzah!

Anonymous said...

They say failing to plan is planning to fail. But making your planning on false assumptions is also a guaranteed failure. When the 1st Battle of Bull Run occurred the Northern Army and the civilians were so sure of the crushing of the Southern Rebellion the Civilians PACKED Lunches and had a picnic to watch the SHOW. It was said the only thing slowing the fleeing Union Army was the crush of fleeing Civilians from the disaster.

The Socialists THINK also how Easy it will be to get us to surrender. Nobody ever STARTED a war thinking they would Lose....

Too many of our posters speak as though the battle will be an easy 400 yard engagement because we have more GUNS and they are somehow lesser fighters. I'd not choose to think that their grunts are worthless, in fact there will be some VERY WELL trained Mercenaries well supplied and supported by Helicopters and Drones. Where is YOUR General Lee, logistical support and Medevac?

Friends in the first Civil War the food chain was SHORT and almost everybody had deep pantries because food shortages occurred. Today because of Just In Time supply systems the food you SEE in your grocery store is nearly ALL they have on hand IF the trucks fail to arrive tonight. Do you think once things get spicy that Trucking will STOP? Look at the map and notice that nearly every highway runs through a mostly BLUE Controlled City. Yeah we can starve them but OUR Supplies will also stop. Fuel the same story, just look at gas stations during EVERY Hurricane...

This civil war will last for years. How many years worth of food do you have set aside for you and your families? Have sick bays available for the few that will survive their battle wounds with out a Trauma Center? Trauma Centers are ALL in Blue Cities and the only reason the constant Black on Black gun violence don't have even a higher War Zone death toll.

Do you think that the many enemies we have created around the world will not take advantage of the chaos to cause even MORE Chaos as to guarantee that the USA will never bother them again? Sleeper cells and terrorists as well as common crime gangs (MS-13) will run wild when things get really spicy.

The Population of the US before the Civil War was around 32 million including slaves. The current population of the USA is well over 320 million NOT including all the illegals. We fed ourselves in the era of the Civil War with out importing food from.... Today 20 percent of our food is IMPORTED. Over 50% of fruit and 70% of Seafood. That will stop and along with the loss of home grown food ROTTING (let alone Plantings with out fuel and fertilizer shipping) because we cannot truck it to be distributed the death toll will be in the 90% easily.

Sometimes I pray for a massive EMP during a series of massive snow storms as it would be quicker and cleaner than a years long civil war.

Unless there are real fall on your sword style Patriots in the NSA and they force the traitors into the arms of Madame Guillotine our Republic is dead and the Socialist Maggots are eating the corpse.

Anonymous said...

And fight we must Brother.

lineman said...

Same to you my Brother...I want everyone to do one thing this year and that is take stock of where you are at and if you couldn't survive the boogaloo where you are at then do something about it...Have a Successful New Year Brothers...

tweell said...

The progressives do believe that they'll win, that's what they've been taught and so far they have succeeded more often than not. Mostly we've been just warning them to stop, warnings they ignore with no consequence. OTOH...

Anonymous at 8:43AM, you're erring on the other side.

The freeways go through the cities, true, but there are lots of back roads and highways, and the truckers know them well. The long-haul boys usually deliver to warehouses on the outskirts, and avoid the cities altogether.

The trauma centers are in the cities, but they're staffed mostly by our folks. You haven't experienced cynical if you haven't talked to trauma docs and nurses! They'll run for safety when the time comes, those centers will be looted and useless after a week tops.

Food will be a problem, but it's mostly distribution, not production. The US feeds the world, that 20% of imports is luxury stuff, like (as you note) fruit and seafood. My grandparents didn't eat shrimp and only had fruit in season, and they did okay.

I do not happily look forward to what is to come. I fear that the US will break, and that much that is good will be lost. That will not stop me and mine from being ready, for change is inevitable and we can have change for the better as well as the worse.

Anonymous said...

Beg to differ with some of your assumptions such as "Trauma Centers are ALL in ' Blue Cities' " Really?
Cutting supply lines to socialist-run urban areas will result in some shortages but they will not be universal; that food and fuel has to go somewhere, why not to us?
Yeah, it's gonna be long and ugly. Many of us will not see the end, but take not counsel of your fears
Boat Guy

George True said...

Ironic that you mention guillotines, because that is the fate that the Agenda 21 Globalists have in mind for the Deplorables who they deem not re-educationable. Because then they can harvest the organs, of course.

Oldfart said...

Matt, I guess I've read nearly everything you've written. The comment above has to be as profound as anything I've ever read, heard or thought. It pulls the curtain from the decision we each have to face. May we too have the will to pledge "Our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor" to rescue our Republic from those who would destroy it.

Aesop said...

It's worse than that.
You may not rescue anything.

And what follows me be so charred and f**ked up that only your grandkids will have a chance to salvage what we know now, and try this again from the rubble of the current civilization.

In between may be times unimaginably bleak and grim.

Bear that well in mind before you start out, and think about what you're doing to pass on civilization itself.

It was about 1400 years before the Rome of 450 AD was as advanced as it once had been.

Anonymous said...

True, that Aesop. At least my grandkids will have a blueprint; the Founders had to work from scratch. The first one is now approaching GrandDad's Dangerous Thoughts curiculum. I'll have to remind him to be discreet once (if) he enters the indoc centers. If I lived closer, I could obviate his attendance altogether.
Boat Guy

Anonymous said...

I am "of an age" haha. I am glad to see that you understand what's in my head, and the skills in my eyes and hands; have value. They always have to me, because they were learned and honed at great cost and sacrifice. As I have said before, this mess in many ways happened on our watch. And, sometimes, the duty falls to us. I'm not getting any younger. Let's win. - Grandpa

The Freeholder said...

If I may, I would urge a re-reading (or reading, if you haven't) of Unintended Consequences. Whether it was meant to be a blueprint or not, some interesting info there.

Anonymous said...

Friend I have several decades of experience in the Trauma Services between 20 years MASH units, Bosnia and Johns Hopkins Baltimore. Your correct most of us are very non-PC, however take away our supplies and equipment support most of us will be working at EMT level. At best EMT levels, I however have done many years of Ditch Medicine and am not looking forward to the level of care I will be forced to give..

I did a year of over the road trucking because I was burned out from my tour in Bosnia, a civil war-ethnic cleansing is mankind at his most evil. Women and children were treated the worst. Truckers need several things to be effective. A few like effective communication, fuel, something to deliver and a SAFE way to get there. WHILE your On the Road who is Protecting those truckers families?

Are you ASSUMING that outside those Blue Cities will have safe rule of law roads friend? That DID NOT Happen in Bosnia's Civil War, not happening today in Venezuela.

Fight we must, but the cost is real. Lost lives, raped wives, crippled kids and adults, deaths from lack of sanitation and simple injuries with out antibiotics. As a history buff I know for a fact that even George Washington's family had to flee their farm-home as the British took it and burned it. Most of the Rebels lost everything so it was REALLY Our Lives our fortunes and our sacred honor.

Food when my Grandparents were around was grown with in a 100 miles of their homestead IF not grown ON their homestead or a neighbors. No seafood, although most had fish ponds, coffee was shipped in and expensive. They had over a years worth of basics set aside in the pantry Because they knew of shortages in their lives'. IN a Time of relative Peace. Today we are discussing an active civil war with poorly defined lines of conflict and trucking whatever foodstuffs grown over several hundred miles of lawless roads.

I know it's coming. I am preparing for it with the knowledge I learned over my life experiences. We who survive will hopefully use the Constitution as our guidebook to rebuild our Republic.

John Wilder said...


You mentioned mental readiness, and I think that's (one) key. And that might be one of the gifts of the last 37 months - understanding the true nature of the Left, and understanding what their true aims are. It's a wall of disbelief to climb, but once you get there, that might be the biggest step towards preparation.

The second gift is avoiding despair.

The past we wish to cling to is dead. But we have a future. Let us go and make it.

Anonymous said...

I'm often reminded of a quote from Poul Anderson's story "Hunters of the Sky Cave", where the main character Dominic Flandry is talking about the decline of the Terran Empire:

"The measure of our damnation is that everyone of us with any intelligence - and there are some - every one sees the Long Night coming. We've grown too wise; we've studied a little psychodynamics, or perhaps only read a lot of history, and we can see that Manuel's Empire was not a glorious resurgence. It was the Indian summer of Terran civilization. (But you've never seen Indian summer, I suppose. A pity: no planet has anything more beautiful and full of old magics.) Now even that short season is past. Autumn is far along; the nights are cold and the leaves are fallen and the last escaping birds call through a sky which has lost all colour. And yet, we who see winter coming can also see it won't be here till after our life-times...so we shiver a bit, and swear a bit, and go back to playing with a few bright dead leaves."

Change a few words and it become damn near prophetic of what's going on. I first read it nearly 30 years ago (and it was written in 1965), and it looks more and more true every year.

People don't seem to realize that when America ultimately collapses it'll usher in a Dark Ages that'll make the one at after the fall of Rome look like a little blip, and this time we won't have the mechanisms in place to preserve the best so it can be used when it's time to rebuild (because all that stuff was from Dead White Men). It'll all be destroyed by people who think Wakanda is real.

Eh, I'm 56 years old, have no children (therefore no hostages to the future). Maybe America will limp along for a couple more decades, or maybe there'll be some way for an old man to help slow the collapse.

Mark D

SAM said...

Two years old and even more true.