Thursday, December 21, 2017

Picking At The Scab

h/t WRSA

Folks just can't seem to let go of the idea of another civil war.
Probably because they stupidly view the first one to occur in these parts far too romantically, and have a tenuous grasp of what battlefields covered in dead and wounded looked like, sounded like, and smelled like, but that's a question for forensic psychologists.

Lately, a few more recent efforts have popped up, kicking it around yet again.
At American Thinker.
At Christian Mercenary.
At Cold Fury.
And Forward Observer.

They vary greatly, in reality and accuracy, with the caveat that this is all in the realm of crystal-ball-gazing. One may note, however, that a prognosticator who predicts horses rather than zebras has pure statistical likelihood on their side, and is miles closer to reality than the person who confidently asserts unicorns.

Bear in mind, this dead horse was pretty well beaten to molecules a year ago, and that was people more or less on my side whinging about the pending civil war because Shrillary lost.
The people on the other side unleashed footie-pajama-clad cocoa-sipping Snowflakes and Trigglypuffs, with the result since then that the handiest place to find Antifa these days is on the back of a milk carton.

(I seem to recall that they were going to rant to the heavens last November, and begin overthrowing President Trump. Last I looked, he just watched a monster tax cut passed, including the repeal of the individual ObozoCare mandate, driving a stake through its reptilian heart after the Senate failed to kill it outright three five eleventy times. So color me somewhat unimpressed by the whole idea the Left is going to unleash the kraken.)

But assuming things do get worse, as is likely, what might it look like?

Look at failed states, and see how they fail.

Nothing, and nowhere in history, does a gigantic black hole form that sucks all of reality down into itself.

Some areas are relatively unscathed, at least by violence.
Others are apocalyptic hellholes.
Most fall somewhere in between.

Expect the same in any future difficulties where you are.

Baltimorons, Chicongo, Bahstun, DC, and NYFC could expect a rather rough time. Dallas, Miami, Buffalo, not so much.

I doubt we’ll see anything like a civil war, as such.

What we’re liable to get is things working less, or not at all, especially in areas where the margin between functional everyday life and disasterpiece theater is thinner than others.
There will be shortages. Areas that can’t be served by the central government, federal or state, and require more of that 24/7/365, will degrade.
Areas with lesser reliance on Big Brother will fare much better.

Human interactions and governance is called politics. Politics is getting along with everyone else, to the maximum extent possible. War is a continuation of politics, by other means.

Everybody lately likes to yak about DeepState. That’ll be every federal, state, and county employee, in all likelihood, not to mention the dependents of same, and retirees tied to their pension paychecks.
That’ll be every retired cop and firefighter, and every former bureaucrat, every retired teacher and administrator from K-Ph.D.
That accountability list is getting pretty fucking huge at this point.
Add in all the people (snowflakes, airheads, useful idiots, entertainment do-nothings et al) who don’t think like you do, and it’s approaching 50% of everywhere. Or worse.

Those of you in tax-haven Red State heaven may find you have one helluva lot more pension teat-sucking fifth columnists than you imagined, all of whom have, as their first interest, the maintenance of the entire status quo, who won’t be subscribing to your newsletter, marching in your parade, and will likely dime you out given half a chance and any enticement from TPTB.

And they’re in your AO, and they all get a vote too; either at the ballot box, or via Rule 308. You have a limited option-set for accommodating them or exterminating them, and every choice has its pros and cons.

Functional society lives in a very narrow pH range between totalitarianism and anarchy; anyone who thinks they’re going to yank the lever very far in either direction and fix everything by killing everyone who disagrees with them will pull the walls of the trench onto their own head, whether we’re talking political power, legitimacy, or getting zipped into body bags. Which all tend to be fairly correlative, especially in sportier times.

There ain’t gonna be no Grand Strategy where you carve out a Redoubt, a New South, or a Flyover Paradise.
Ain’t. Gonna. Happen.

Ask a Milosevic what happens when you try.

If you’re very lucky, you may have a coherent state (as in One of the Fifty), and one that has your best interests at heart. Worst case, it’ll be coherent, and want you dead, gulaged, re-educated, or whatever term of art applies come the day.
Most folks will have a county, or a few counties, with roughly similar interests. Large counties, with geographic barriers, may devolve to civilizational outposts, surrounded by No Man’s Land areas or varying functionality.

In short, things are liable to look more like the Wild West than the Walking Dead.
Things will become better, and worse. Rougher, simpler, meaner, and more focused on your choices and day-to-day existence. There will be bandits, savages, and brigands in the wastelands. They’ll all want to come to the bright lights of the city for all the reasons folks do now, and did then.

But there aren’t likely to be front lines; scores will be settled far more personally, in back alleys or bar room brawls. Some people will try and build industry and commerce, and the order of civilization and prosperity.
Others will try to burn it out, rob it, and subjugate it. Like always, everywhere.

This, boys and girls, is why we study history: lessons from Deadwood, Tombstone, or the South Side of Chicago circa 1930 will have as much to do with reality then as now.

Expect devolution, not revolution.

This is why how big your ranch is, and how many ride for your brand, and WRSA's host’s none-too-subtle reminders of local, Local, LOCAL should be your guiding principles.

If you’re in unfriendly territory, you aren’t going to take down the next Hitler or Stalin. But you damned sure better know how to get around the local goon squad, know who your friends and allies (and the collaborators) are, and plan for monkeywrenching bad things and bad people to the extent of your capabilities.

Or, be prepared to hide, and ride things out.

A nighttime partisan (or twenty) can make it through.
A known outlaw, enemy of the state, or a refugee, is one step from a cattle car, and oblivion.

Plan accordingly.

As an added bonus, the ability to get along in rough times confers a lot of skills and capabilities that also work if, contrary to likelihood, things do go all apocalyptic at some point.

Nobody survives on a desert island unless they’re actually that isolated and alone.

Everywhere else, you have to deal with things slowly getting shittier.

If people really wanted things to get that way, they’d either cut the cord now and withdraw, or start instigating the collapse.
Neither of those are in any evidence, to date.
You can assume that means people either like things as they are, or would prefer them to be better.
Work to make them better, while preparing for them to get worse.

And don’t get all butthurt when your wildest fantasies don’t happen.
You won’t get what you like, and you won’t like what you get.

Invest what you have to in order to get to the other side of bad times, and invest what you can spare to stave those bad times off for as long as possible.

We had about 50-60 years where that wasn’t so much the everyday struggle it was for the other 6000 years of recorded history.

Coffee break’s about over.


MMinWA said...


lineman said...

Amen but people won't take heed until it's to late... History shows us that...

Bill Robbins said...

So, no "Gone With the Wind, Part Deux?"

Anonymous said...

WORD-" Work to make them better while preparing for the to be worse".
I'd caution all hands not to " judge by the lot": just cause someone's taking a check from the man doesn't mean anything but THAT. Money doesn't always buy fealty. Folks you've likely served alongside are getting " deferred compensation" for same: doesn't necessarily mean they're droids or turncoats
Just mentionin,
Boat Guy

Aesop said...

Noted, but those retired on a fixed income are going to have substantial and not-inconsequential cause to take heed of where their bread is buttered.
It doesn't make every swinging Richard a rabid turncoat out of hand, but a good many of them will have, at best, divided and conflicted loyalties.
Something you won't have to suss out for anyone not so encumbered.

Which reality is why dealing with and rehabilitating things according to what's possible is vastly preferable to the all-or-nothing wet dreams of the "burn it all" commando wannabes.

Most of whom are the sort of folks who yell "Jump!" at people on a ledge, knowing they're not in any danger themselves.

I have a healthy disdain for anyone whose main input is "Let's you and him fight."

Anonymous said...

"County" made me laugh. The little dictator that is the county treasurer thinks her dictates have the same legitimacy as law. She & her room full of ants got a lesson on law Wed. Then the gave me my plates. I think just to get rid of me. This old Marine, 'Nam vet, outlaw biker had had enough of their crap & made up "laws" & wasn't shy about telling them so.
Now the state ombudsman is involved. I love calling peoples bluff! Bitches.

Anonymous said...

Dunno if merely being "unencumbered" is automatic vetting; it certainly eliminates one potential source of "conflict" to be sure. I think the key here is assumption of personal responsibility. The draft is gone and we don't send the press-gangs out; folks "choose" to participate and choices always have consequences (as choosing NOT to participate at some point).
I think the other key is simply living within one's means. I see retired O-6's drawing GS-13 and higher pay in an absolute panic at the thought of furlough; W.T.F? I don't know if they have heroin habits or legions of ex-wives and mistresses or what; but like vetting an operative one can look there and decide that yes those folks might be vulnerable (likely ARE) to selling out.
Conversely the prudent among us always have an exit strategy.
Boat Guy

Aesop said...

People are complex, but not being beholden to the government's nipple eliminates an obvious potential conflict of interest.

I figure social security will be bankrupt by the time I retire, so having other income streams is part of the package once I get there.

The point is still that flyoverland isn't going to be the pristine anti-government recruiting pool the wilder fantasists imagine, which is why tempering their fever dreams with a dose of reality is always a good idea.

lineman said...

I don't think most even get that far in their thought process...I think it stops at Burn in all down or 300mil...Most are like children playing with matches...

Anonymous said...

Every day that it doesn't happen is a GIFT.
I'll confess to having dark moments of "It'd sure be nice to just be able to shoot these bastards" but the thought of what likely comes after usually mollifies that most skosh.
If we wake up to it one day; we better be ready and able to prevail.

Anonymous said...

From what I remember from history is that the American Revolution was fought/supported by no more than 30% of the population. 30% stayed out of the way and made the deal with themselves to support who ever wins. Aesop's, mine any most of everyone here "despicables"-led throughout our history by Congressman/Elitist types who vote for war but make sure their kid never gets drafted. The other 30% more or less supported the British. Many of both these two groups left and gave Canada one of its greatest immigration surges. Led now by a Muslim. (Soon we all may be living in a countrywide Bastogne). If this % remains true, even if its 20%, I still think those are good odds. In my neck of the hills and hollars (we aren't even close to a Clinton archipelago having only one area that might have created an submerged atoll), the problem for some naive folk is being left out of the fight. We'll plant again just like last year, raise our cattle, drink from our wells, eat from our gardens and look really hard at anyone coming up that we don't recognize. Just like we did yesterday. Show me, Stop right there and Show me who you are. (Made famous after the CW when this whole part of the country was virtually depopulated due to starvation, where women and children without their men survived off nuts, berries and squirrels in the woods for years). And yes, we live that blessing of our kin's sacrifice. You can see their story in our eyes. The horror is what gives us pause. "Fighting" will be in Chicago, St. Louis, etc. and won't have any more motivation than what exists there now. I pray that that is where it stays, for us and them. Pause is prudent and should not be confused with timidity. Just 'cause my neighbor is old, doesn't mean someone else is out of range. RR

JC said...

Just remember.

It's you and me. Until it's you OR me.

Everyone plan accordingly.