Friday, May 1, 2020

Napkin Math For F**ktards, With Actual Numbers

New York F**king City has a population of about 9,000,000.
To date, they have 18,000 Kung Flu dead.
The rosiest (for the "just the flu, bro" @$$clowns) circular reasoning "surveys" there have put penetration of the infection there at about 20% of the city.
Meaning, granting such silliness arguendo, it's yet to get to the other 80%.

Los Angeles (city of)has a population of about 4,000,000.
They have almost 1,200 Kung Flu dead.
The rosiest recockulous "surveys" there put infection penetration at under 5% of the city, meaning 95% of them have yet to have any contact with it.

In the one documented smart decision of his life, Califrutopia Gov. Gabbin' Nuisance closed things down early, and widespread. That's largely why NYFC has a death rate between 2 and nearly 7 times worse than L.A. (You can argue pop. density and public transport all you want. NYFC isn't locked down, and L.A. is. One city took this serious, and one didn't. The results of each decision, particularly the number and rate of infection and deaths, speak for themselves. QED)

NYFC is an exemplar of what doing nothing about Kung Flu gets you.
They've run the subways every day during the outbreak, and only started disinfecting them every night starting yesterday or the day before. WTAF?!?

If we extrapolated NYFC's death rate to the country as a whole, that would get us about 660,000 dead, so far, with only 20% infection.
(330M ÷ 9M x 18K = ___X___.)
If it penetrated to everyone, worst case, that's 3,000,000 dead.
(X x 5 = ____Z____.) [Math breakdown included for Common Core grads.]
That's two months of real-world experience, kids, not magical models.
Who's up for going full-speed ahead to kill another 600,000 of your friends and neighbors?
Ferris Beuller...???

Neither of these numbers is "just the flu", and both those numbers (660K and 3M) are what represents the lower and upper limits of this pandemic, if we'd listened to the Flu Bros since Day One. We didn't do that, but the fact of that doesn't therefore disprove the projections based on the outcome of following that course. We repeat this for the kids who'll read it, but dropped out in middle school following ingestion of too many lead paint chips and suffering from fetal alcohol syndrome.

It also demonstrates that the numbers projected if we did nothing line up vastly closer to the 2M dead estimated by the British projections, versus the recockulous Ioannidis fairytales that this was, indeed, going to be "just the flu".

Forty-two states went into hard lockdown mode, which stopped this everywhere but the one city where they didn't do any of that. The seven other states that declined to do so benefitted far more from the widespread lockdown, rather than suffering for the behavior of idiots in NYFS and NYFC, and this was mainly by dint of vast geography between NYFC and them.

And yet, being a moron is apparently an irresistible siren's call, because some people still want to pretend NYFC (and Italy, and China) never happened. And emulate their non-response, in perpetuity!

{Nota bene: Someone in comments elsewhere suggested some silly-ass projection that this would peak at 67K total dead, by August 4th. This was just a few days ago. We noted then that we would achieve that dubious milestone by more like May 4th. We leave it to the reader to pop over to the Johns-Hopkins Kung Flu Dashboard this weekend, and decide who's been speaking from common sense and reality on this topic, and who's been smoking hopeium and talking out their own @$$#$.}

This embiggens. Oh Lookie here! Note the date, and the number of US deaths.

Should we therefore stay in lockdown everywhere, forever?
Hell no!

Not because this isn't a thing, but because it is. Today, the federal response guidelines (and they were always thus, not mandatory regulations, so any beef you have is with your own governor, not with Orangeman) expired.

Some governors will be stupid on the too strict side of lockdown-lifting, and others will be stupid on the too loose side of lockdown-lifting. We are not going to go 49-0 everywhere other than NYFS. Expect TPTB to f**k this up. It's what they do.

Eventually though, after exhausting all other options, the republic will muddle through.
That's what we do.

An endless total lockdown kills healthcare by giving them no patients.
No lockdown kills it by giving them too many.
Both extremes kill healthcare for everyone.
Something between those two extremes is therefore called for.

We aren't doing magic in hospitals.
Nothing we do cannot be done for most of society.
If people would calm the fuck down and stop panic-hoarding, we can get to having enough masks and gloves for everyone to use.
Some number of monkeys might even be taught to wash their goddam hands before touching themselves. (Don't get offended and butthurt; this is even hard for doctors and nurses, who nominally know better.)

We also know that the virus dies outside on warm sunny days in less time than a Superbowl commercial break. So the places we should be opening, weather permitting, are parks, beaches, golf courses, pools, etc. (Indoor movie theaters and malls, not quite so much.)Opposing this obvious common sense on days with temps in the 90s is why Gabbin' Nuisance's one moment approaching normal IQ was a fluke, and challenging that ignorant fascist fuckwittery in court, as half a dozen OC beach city mayors are doing, is God's work. And the first superior court judge predictably failed the same IQ test, but the battle continues. Nazi Bitch Gov. in MI is another exemplar of How Not To Do This, and the flip side of the ignorant laissez faire of NY Gov. Cuomo [D-Five Families], who is yet the spiritual kin to some numbnutted red-state governors in the Flu Bros camp.

When the stupidity on Left and Right is indistinguishable, those terms are hardly helpful. The battle here is between science and intelligence, versus irrational kneejerk stupidity. There's more than enough of the latter on both sides of the political aisle to kill another several hundreds of thousands of people, given the opportunity. Let's not do that.

As I noted in comments elsewhere, on a long enough time frame, modern medicine achieves 0% success. Because everybody dies. The goal is not to save everyone, because that's impossible.

But ignorant fuckwittery, just like malign intent, can make trainloads of the soon-to-be-dead, and neither side ever seems to lack volunteers to load the boxcars.

Cheerfully ignoring the volunteer applications for those, and beating them about the head and shoulders with a stout cudgel, is therefore always in style, because the goal is also not to go ahead and kill everyone we can as fast as we can, because reasons, and "I want to go to Starbucks NOW!"

So what we should be aiming for is picking out a sensible middle ground of getting ourselves out of this mess, while pushing as few people into the woodchipper along the way as is reasonably possible. Wearing a face mask in public (gloves optional, but highly recommended, as long as you're smart enough to change them before you touch your uninfected stuff or self), and maintaining some distance between people in public, while continuing to find better ways to treat the most seriously infected by this virus, is a great part of that. It's also no great social burden.
And witness the normally-idiot mayor of L.A., opening up Kung Flu testing to all comers, almost like someone with a brain has been advising him or something. Mirabile dictu!

He announced that, he said, because the test centers were only seeing a fraction of their daily capacity. That kind of common sense will get us through this, however occasional or spotty that coverage is from TPTB. Celebrate common sense whenever and wherever found, and the marketplace of ideas will drive the Stupid People out of business. Like it does.

Staying in perpetual lockdown is idiotic, to the exact same extent as doing nothing is.
But if you like your Kung Flu, you can keep your Kung Flu.

Just move to NYFC.
I promise, no one will miss the left end of the IQ bell curve if all of them move there.
They'll be among friends, I assure you. They can lick the stripper pole, and pee on the third rail, and the rest of us can just watch the YouTube Fail videos of their exploits.

Paraphrasing the iconic Inspector Calahan,


T said...

From Louisiana:

The interesting thing about our governor, John Bell Edwards, is that because he was a military man(Airborne, Ranger School), he knows better than to push the American people too far. He may be "liberal", but unlike his non-military fellow "liberals", he can read the mood.

Gotta give him credit for that. He definitely does not want what is happening in Michigan. That Governor Gal, with no military training, has no clue about "situation defusement".

My thoughts: "Don't create 15 Timothy McVeigh's". It won't end well for anyone.

Prepare for the worst. Hope for the best. The reality will probably be somewhere in between.


ADS said...

I was listening to a book written by a WWI vet today about his experiences in trench warfare. Got me thinking about our tolerance for death as a society. Today if 20 US servicemen die in one action it's a national crisis. Back then, tens or hundreds of thousands of men could be lost in a day and not much was made of it. Parallel to our sensitivity to pandemic deaths now vs then? No shutting down the economy in the 1918 Spanish flu. I don't mean anything by this, just thinking out loud.

One thing I'm sure of is that a 2nd, deadlier wave in the fall would be horrible. Food shortage, economic damage, disrupted elections when we're already at each other's throats? Spicy times ahoy.

Ray - SoCal said...


I think you under estimate how bad the NYC subways are, and the stations.

My guess is the stations were not being disinfected at all, because you had homeless living in them. Plus homeless were using the cars as mobile houses and toilets.

59% of the deaths in nyc were in senior homes, because They had to admit patients with coronavirus. Ca and NJ has the same rule.
And from the article thatwouldbetelling linked hospitals were really bad. In NJ a cousin of my wife came down with it, his guess from Chinese restaurant person coughing next to him, he was in a crowded ward, people coughing, no treatment, so he went home.

NY area has 65% of all the us deaths - my guess is the 3 factors above.

Thanks for taking the time to write the blog.

OC supervisors voted to open up:

I’m not sure if this is immediate.


Avalanche said...

ADS wrote: "One thing I'm sure of is that a 2nd, deadlier wave in the fall would be horrible. Food shortage, economic damage, disrupted elections when we're already at each other's throats? Spicy times ahoy."

And one thing I'm sure of is that this expected 2nd wave gives the intelligent folks UNTIL the fall to prep, prep, and prep some more! (I include in "intelligent ones" most of the readers here! Thank you Aesop for being a wise critic-cum-writer/director for our "play!") This wave is our dress rehearsal, and we MAY get thrown into "opening night on Broadway" come autumn without any more rehearsals and no "out-of-town run" to find our mistakes!

How many of y'all have actually spoken with their doctor (if they have one) about your likelihood of being able to get hydrochlor-and-etc. if you need it, early enough to be useful? The VA is pretty useless here: "my VA doc" said, 'well no, if you seem to be getting sick, you have to go to the big hospital 2 hours away; the clinic can't do anything.' (Yeah. I already knew that.) The civilian doc I haven't seen in 12 years (nor paid for in 12 years: I've been insured by Master Card for years! {frown}), might or might not be up-to-speed on this stuff, but then he might not take me back into his practice. No, I haven't contacted him to ask -- I've been isolating since 1st March; and punctilious in gloves/mask/wraparound glasses the 4 times I've had to go out.

And so, of course -- Thursday 3 a.m. I woke up trying to cough out a lung: dragged myself out of bed: checked my smeller: okay (yummy jasmine essential oil: calming too!); checked my temp: okay; took a selenium (binds toxins and escorts them out); swigged some of the liposomal vitamin C (that I had happened to make that morning!); swigged some guaifenesin; heated and drank some chicken broth; etc. etc. I'm about 80% sure this lung-crud was/is from the small amount of drywall-mud dust I inhaled by accident. (Of course, I've been taking D3, K2, chelated zinc, C and etc. all along.) And by lucky happenstance, Amazon FINALLY delivered my shiny new oximeter (that I ordered 2 weeks ago) on Thurs a.m.: blood sat is entirely normal. Whew!

Bouncing my brain between: do I call and TRY to connect with a doc in case I need to get hydroclor -- or plan on trying to get into the big VA hospital (truly the WORST possible option -- Atlanta VA Hospital may be trying to do its best (not) but it does NOT get there)? Local emergency clinics seem useless -- but are they? And it's Friday -- so nothing is available on the weekend anyway. What do I do? What do I do? (I'm rolling the dice. I'll see how it goes. Fingers crossed!)

WHO has prepared for such an occurrence? (No, not W.H.O. -- I'm still applauding madly the God Emperor cutting them off the teat! CDC next?! Pretty please?) So, what will y'all do to prep for the fall?

The Armed Citizens Legal Defense Fund (whom I recommend very highly), once you join, sends a list of local self-defense-case-prepared lawyers in your area who've agreed to work with ACLDF; with the intention that you interview them AHEAD OF TIME and come to an agreement with a congenial one, so you HAVE a lawyer on tap if god-forbid you're called on to defend yourself. This is a thing we should ALSO have done with medical help between now and "wave 2" so we are ready to call for help defending ourselves if need be!

Good luck, stay healthy, and as always: "should you and any of your IM Force be killed or captured, the Secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions.

Michael said...

Happily in NH our Governor is smart enough to have discussions with Infectious Disease scientists-medical people AND businesses to find reasonable consensus. Now if we could cod wallop the idiot Democrats fighting tooth and nail against ANYTHING a Republican Governor might suggest we'd have something good going on.

NH Voters REMEMBER and I suspect their will be a lot less D's in our state government next November. They also REMEMBER our "Senators" supporting Botox Nancy's slowing the Paycheck-COVID aid package for over a week over funding THEIR Pork like Arts and Abortion and any suggestion of Trump's blocking travel from COVID19 areas like China (cough)as "Racist".

Both sides Professional Politicians are mostly useless (or Worse) but the few that actually LEAD and Listen to facts and their people need our support. The rest need UNEMPLOYMENT after the next election.

I fear the second and third effects of the COVID19 more than the COVIN19. I suspect the Democratic wet dream of unlimited no ID write in voting is going to push Biden and the NEW President His "Vice President" into power.

I fear a socialist America aka Venezuela 2.0 due to voters fraud or too scared or wanting free money voters voting us into socialism. As a history buff I know too well the social decay and mass deaths of socialism.

idahobob said...

Here in Idaho, we are having a sensible, gradual, reopening:

ThatWouldBeTelling said...

I think 3 million is too high a ceiling because a bunch of the more vulnerable are getting reaped early, by deliberate policy in NY and NJ, the population going forward will have fewer people who will die of it if infected (modulo the suspicion that initial dosing of the virus has a great deal to do with outcomes).

That's not at all comforting, I'm currently going with a target vs. upper bounds of 2.2 million if we don't find a safe and effective vaccine, which we can both agree there is no assurance of. And 3 million probably underestimates how many will die if we kill our healthcare system one way or another as you note. Way undercounts by 2nd order effects as lots of people die prematurely from the usual stuff.

When the stupidity on Left and Right is indistinguishable, those terms are hardly helpful. The battle here is between science and intelligence, versus irrational kneejerk stupidity.

The actions and inactions of the stupid Left and Right still make the concepts useful, but there's a very good point in there. We are for example learning that it really matters who you elect to run your state and local governments, "luxury" votes for people based on for example your sense of taste, or weak tribal bonds, can be lethally expensive.

And witness the normally-idiot mayor of L.A., opening up Kung Flu testing to all comers, almost like someone with a brain has been advising him or something.

Not denying he's an idiot, for example when his daughter whinged to him about farmers markets he shut them down. But this change looks to be matching some others I'm seeing, where less hard hit states are doing more testing, I'm presuming because we steadily have more back end lab testing capability. But suppose he's an idiot and there isn't enough capability...?

JimR said...

Now do Tokyo

From Norway said...

The Germans have spoken!

Four investigation centers in Germany decided to collaborate. Each made its own report and compared them later. Since the four of them agreed, they published a joint report.

1. Herd immunity is impractical, and maybe impossible. If done quickly the medical system will collapse, producing death due to lack of resources. If done slowly it will take too long, there is the risk of uncontrolled spread. And besides, it is not clear how long immunity to this virus lasts. They also mention that the effects of the illness, with it's microtrombosis everywhere might cause more damage than we know to heart, lungs, brain, kidneys, intestines and liver.

2. Total elimination of the virus is not practical. Will require world collaboration that is most likely not possible and draconian isolation that will ruin world economy.

3. Only solution, everybody with masks, plenty of tests to everyone and total isolation of the sick and their contacts while sick.

I am able to provide a link, but I only have it in German.

Aesop said...

Tokyo, where by all (and there are hundreds of them) accounts, they refuse to test anyone, lest their numbers go up, and don't classify anything as COVID, because the government officials would lose face?
That Tokyo?

See China, reliability of numbers from.

Knightsofnee said...

Aesop, I thought you might find this interesting.

Knightsofnee said...

"1. Herd immunity is impractical, and maybe impossible."

Where I heard that before?

JimR said...

Yeah, the Tokyo with a pop of about 13 million in the city, fewer than 200 deaths from wuhan lung rot, and no lockdown.

ThatWouldBeTelling said...

It says something that, as far as we know, the PRC has a better nuclear safety culture than Japan has, the latter absolutely having no business doing anything nuclear, which was very clear before Fukushima. Now, we don't know all that much about the PRC's rather secretive nuclear power industry, but there are certain levels of accidents you can't hide....

Re: Japan and testing, their Official case numbers only really took off after they officially postponed the Summer Olympics.

Toirdhealbheach Beucail said...

Prediction: The longer the emergency continues, the more pressure state and city governments will feel as their coffers run completely dry. By failing to plan for an actual reopening, they are planning to fail.

JimR said...

Let me see if I have this correct.

We can't trust the numbers from Japan, because reasons, but the numbers from NYC are rock solid and we should cripple the economy based on them.

Got it.

Rollory said...

Tangent - WRSA is just straight up lying now.

The 37000 revision is clearly stated to apply to March and early April. Looking back on my chinavirus spreadsheet, yup, 4/13 has an entry of 23640 total deaths. So 13K more does put you at 37K.

He's claiming it's a total up to the present (and presenting it as proof CDC is lying or something), which is blatantly false and ten seconds of checking proves it's false. Or else he's just repeating somebody else's claim without stopping to check it or think about it, because he WANTS to believe it.

Which would make him mentally about ready for one of those nursing homes / slaughterhouses.

Deaths being UNDERcounted is something I've been pointing out consistently for at least a month, including on WRSA when he was still allowing comments: total mortality is spiking tremendously in every virus hotspot, far beyond officially registered COVID deaths, and even though nationwide average mortality is down.

If he's going to be stepping on rakes on a near-daily basis the way he has been, he could benefit from re-enabling comments, if just to read through them for himself. But whatever.

This knee-jerk dislike for the lockdowns is translating into a pro-virus position. Whether the lockdowns are or are not effective is something that can be discussed, and what measures might be more effective while also being sustainable can be discussed, but I promise you this: all the people complaining about the lockdowns are going to dislike the alternative of "just lift them, bro" even more.

Occidental Dissent has been repeatedly noting something that I can't find a way to argue out of existence: that, for all non-China countries with a major outbreak, "resolved cases" tends to converge towards 20% dead. That's of officially registered cases, of course, not counting asymptomatics or mild ones that never got tested, but still there's been enough people catching this and recovering or not to start getting some statistics on it and the 20%-ish proportion seems fairly consistent.

It's just the flu, bro. But with ... electrolytes.

Rhea said...

Saw an article that the Michigan Court of Claims has ruled that people are actually not allowed to throw their fellow citizens under the bus to get their state reopened. The Constitution does, in fact, not allow for the writing off of large chunks of the population, and it is in fact not granting unlimited rights to Americans to do whatever they want.

Unknown said...

normally I am in line with you...but the CDC just basically halved the death rate FROM COVID19...
Uhhh the CDC quietly revised the death count in the US… to.. 37k??????

So where as this total sucks for some folks, Darwin tends to win out...though many have been trying to cheat him over the last 20yrs..

Aesop said...


The Japanese numbers are deliberately under-reported. Period. Full stop.
This has been reported times without end, on American news programs, FFS.

I can tell you 47 ways that the Japanese are lying about cases, and deaths, but if you can't grasp that as reality, I cannot help you.
They enjoy, for example, a criminal conviction rate for serious crimes in the high 90th percentile, because a jury voting against the prosecution would cause them and the police to lose face, not because the guy is guilty, nor because their police are just so darn efficient. That's how they make decisions there. This is the same reason China lied and is lying about their COVID infections and deaths.
Jeebus crispies, man, the Japanese were astonished that we were so butthurt about Pearl Harbor and them scheming to deliver the notification of a state of war (in their plans, but not in reality) about 5 minutes before they were to attack. And that's just one example of how the way they think is not the way you think.

You're trying to apply Western concepts of honesty to a culture that places the ultimate value on conformity, not on rugged individualism and moral purity the way you think about it.

If this is news to you, and you're that out of touch with how the world works, especially in Asian culture, since forever, you're really not tall enough for this discussion. You could look it up, but as this information has been out there for only about 500 years, at least, I'm guessing it's just not a priority for you.

Aesop said...

@Unknown #2,

The CDC revised the death totals for one-two months ago, not currently overall.
Scroll up.

Here's the details, from their page:

"*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death."

They continue, on the same page, FFS:

"Why these numbers are different

Provisional death counts may not match counts from other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments. Our counts often track 1–2 weeks behind other data for a number of reasons: Death certificates take time to be completed. There are many steps involved in completing and submitting a death certificate. Waiting for test results can create additional delays. States report at different rates. Currently, 63% of all U.S. deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, but there is significant variation among jurisdictions. It takes extra time to code COVID-19 deaths. While 80% of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded manually, which takes an average of 7 days. Other reporting systems use different definitions or methods for counting deaths.

Things to know about the data

Provisional counts are not final and are subject to change. Counts from previous weeks are continually revised as additional records are received and processed. Provisional data are not yet complete. Counts will not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for more recent periods. However, we can estimate how complete our numbers are by looking at the average number of deaths reported in previous years. Death counts should not be compared across jurisdictions. Some jurisdictions report deaths on a daily basis, while others report deaths weekly or monthly. In addition, vital record reporting may also be affected or delayed by COVID-19 related response activities."

If we want to go back and visit their numbers for today in 8 weeks, when they finalize it, we can see where they are for now, then.

If not, then somebody's cherry-picking data the CDC has already clearly declared to be "provisional", and obviously incomplete, as though it was carved in stone.

That's a half-lie.

"A man who lies, merely hides the truth. But a man who tells half-lies has forgotten where he put it." - Mssr. Dryden, Lawrence of Arabia

Anonymous said...

Well - I'm all for leaving N.Y.C. open and seeing what happens as long as they stay in N.Y.C. Maybe the idiots will be thinned out and if we're really lucky Cuomo won't get elected again next time around. From someone who lives in the Finger Lakes region of N.Y. I can tell you this governor is as worthless as tits on a boar hog. If I see one more media person crooning over this clown I'm gonna puke. The state was flat broke before this pandemic. I can't wait to see what happens in the next budget go round. I'm sure the illegals will still get free college and healthcare and the rest of the state will continue to pay for it and get increased taxes to try and pull this crap hole out of the gutter. About three more years till I can retire, at which time I'll see N.Y. in my rear view mirror as I'm moving out.

Bezzle said...

>To date, (New York F**king City has) 18,000 Kung Flu dead.

No they don't. What they have, is a great, fat, *Big Lie*. To believe New York's Covid death-rate is to buy that its citizens are somehow twice as susceptible to dying, per capita, as those of next runner-up corrupt commie shithole New Jersey

We are this >< close to civil war breaking out over this bullshit (it would have taken a single antsy riot-pig losing it in Sacramento the other day), and what really worries me more than anything is that that may have been the deliberate intention all along.

~ ~ ~

How to steal $100 trillion out of global equity and commodity markets, engineer famines in India and Africa, and prompt the US to tear itself apart.... -- Is there a single thing going on right now that doesn't have Fabian-socialism jizzing its pants and cackling evilly like Mr. Burns?

Aesop said...

Facts, Mike, or else you're just ranting because it makes you feel better.

ThatWouldBeTelling said...

WRT to Mike's ranting, we have multiple anecdotal reports that the quality of nursing in NYC is way below normal US standards, this of course achieved by using cheap migrant labor.

We know for a fact that on March 25th NY state ordered nursing homes to accept COVID-19 positive patients, and we've heard anecdotally that in Cuomo's panic and/or malice, a lot of patents where pushed into them, and homes were not allowed to send patients to field hospitals. Again, supposedly because Cuomo wanted to keep as much reserve capacity as possible.

We know for a fact NYC is population dense in the way that matters unlike every other US city, including a unique dependence on its uniquely dense subway, which until a few days ago provided service 24x7. A MIT guy has matched much of the patterns of the disease with subway and commuter rail patterns, including some lines which were shut down. Subway workers got hit hard, and a reduction in service, fewer trains per unit of time, kept them super crowded, there's zillions of pictures of this. They also let the homeless camp out on trains, yesterday or the day before a couple of them were found dead on running trains....

We don't have good antibody data on how many the virus has infected, but the numbers are much higher than I recall having been found elsewhere in the US to date.

NYC likes to boast about how unique it is, there's no reason to not believe them when it comes to COVID-19.