Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Demographics Is Destiny

"You cannot invade the United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass." - whoever

Demographics Is Destiny
Usually that's observed for Western democracies in terms of gloom, due to a declining birthrate, esp. vis-à-vis any given xenopopulation.
But if you take a peek at Robert Gore's Essay Bring It On over on Straight Line Logic, regarding the impending collapse of the current world system, it's far less doom-and-gloomy.

He gets to the meat-and-potatoes here:
But, never underestimate the stupidity of the aristocrats. Let’s say the US government descended into full-on totalitarianism. This is the same government that couldn’t subdue Vietnamese in Vietnam, Afghans in Afghanistan, Iraqis in Iraq, Syrians in Syria, Libyans in Libya, or Yemenis in Yemen. Nevertheless, it will attempt to subdue Americans in America, who collectively are far better armed (thank you, NRA) than any of the insurgencies in those other countries.
Of course, many Americans are sheep so the resistance would be a subset, but the daunting math of fighting insurgents on their own territory, according to military expert Richard Maybury, is about 20 military personnel for each domestic guerrilla fighter. So even if only a million US insurgents resist, probably a low estimate, it would require 20 million government personnel to suppress them, not to mention what would be necessary to maintain order should any collateral chaos and violence, including racial and ethnic animosities, erupt. Currently, there are a little over 2 million active and reserve personnel in the military, and about 1.1 million in law enforcement, and some of both are administrative personnel who would not participate in suppression or combat. The government is stockpiling weaponry, but where does it find at least 17 million recruits to pull the triggers and drive the MRAPS, and with what will it pay them?
The reality is that things are far simpler than that.

Team Oppression is never going to raise another 17M oppressors. In fact, they're highly likely to lose a significant subset of the 3.1M they're already counting on, either to indifference, desertion, or actively joining any resistance movement, if not actually forming one themselves.

And at Maybury's nominal 20:1 ratio to suppress insurgency, that means in the entire USA, a mere 150,000 active resistors places TPTB into a perpetual unyielding stalemate.
Any combination of insurgent recruitment above that number, and/or losses to Team Oppression, means a resistance inexorably gains ground.

You can also forget the likelihood of any blue-helmeted UN troops, or Chinese hordes descending on us here: both entities currently have far more on their plate at home than they can presently handle, and lack the time, troops, treasure, or trouble to go looking for foreign adventure here, unless they desired a repeat of both Little Big Horn and Gallipoli amalgamated into a fearsome Franken-battle of biblical proportions. With the locals playing the part of Home Team under both scenarios.

Also, let's bear in mind that current criminal elements far surpass that 150,000 number, and TPTB are hard-pressed to maintain order now with the forces at their immediate disposal. The crooks aren't going away anytime soon, and adding a resistance to more than offset the addition of the military, under any rule set besides nuking your entire country to glass, avails them a permanent losing battle, and an eventual prom date with a tumbrel cart and gibbet.

I'm not saying they won't try, or that there will never be foreign toadies willing to come here, but the unassailable facts are that for even the most minimal insurgency here,
they can never, ever win.
And even the dimmer bulbs on whatever side can parse that mathematical reality out, without much effort.

Which should lead you to recognize how stupid the leadership that would try must be to skirt the edge of that abyss, or think they have any chance of carrying it off. Like jihadis poking America, or Shrillary dodging indictment (so far), when the rules change suddenly, and the Marquis Of Queensbury gloves come off, the sudden appearance of a mob with torches and pitchforks headed for their house comes as the wildest and most unpleasant shock to the cores of their being.

All you need to do is concentrate on assembling and preparing your local slice of that 150k or so - even if you're any army of one, currently - and the outcome is largely a forgone conclusion.

Provided you actually make that effort, prior to the day.

Just saying.


Hiddenhollow said...

whoever= Admiral Yamamoto

Aesop said...

Nice try. Look it up, though. Never happened.
That's why I put "whoever".

Hiddenhollow said...

Stopped back to say: I was Wrong.

Aesop said...

No prob. I researched it before I put it up, or I would have made the same mistake.
I still used it, because it's a great line, even though we'll probably never know where it came from.