Saturday, May 4, 2019

Ebola 2019 Update

Go over to Bayou Renaissance Man, and read Peter's summary of the situation in DRC today.
I have nothing to add that would improve on that.
Which is a relief, frankly, because I really didn't want to have to go fishing in the cesspool for this update.

This thing is coming around again, TPTB are no smarter, and no better prepared, and the question is not whether, it's when and where.
The first city in North America to get one active case will be Dallas 2014 Redux.
Set your wayback machine for that episode, refresh your memory, and plan accordingly.

If anyone gets a dozen cases or more, cancel Christmas, and put your affairs in order.

Ain't no one who can handle as many as 12 cases at once in all of North America, short of concertina wire barricades, full medieval quarantines, and martial law.
And at that point, "care" is palliative care, i.e. Hospice, for those who are going to die.

Things are still fairly small in the grand scheme, but this thing is inexorably headed for liftoff.
I said the same thing in 2014, at about the same time of year.
By fall, it wasn't a prediction, it was a prophecy fulfilled.
Africa is the birthplace of stupid.
You've been seeing that there for several months; soon, you're going to see the consequences elsewhere of that problem. Probably including here.

As Kim DuToit said way back in 2002 (and probably many times before and since), "Africa Wins Again."
That's not a good thing.

Run for the hills? Hell, no.
Be ready to cope with not just a pandemic, but the second-, third- and fourth-order consequences of a pandemic? Hell, yes.
Oh, and FTR, "hoping it doesn't happen" is not a plan.
And you aren't going to "treat" anyone in your clan who gets this, unless by "treat" you mean "ensure that everyone else in the family dies a slow, agonizing death too."
You either avoid this, or it slays you, and stomps a mudhole in your family.
There is no third option.

Tick tock, boys and girls.


SiGraybeard said...

That plot of deaths since last summer that Peter has looks like a climate change hockey stick plot. Unlike Michael Mann's plots, it's doubtful that one was doctored to make it look worse. It's probably much worse than the plot for the reasons that you and Peter have talked about.

Another couple of doublings and it's going to get real sporty.

Anonymous said...

I had a good laugh reading "Africa wins again" because the author said a person was killed when a kudu went through the window of a car and he didn't think that happened in America. Try deer, moose, elk or cattle! And I personally knew of a guy back in the 70's that ran over a gemsbok with his bass boat in, that's right you guessed it, Florida!

Ominous Cowherd said...

Anonymous, large fauna aren't Africa's problem. We have our 60IQ idiots here, but here they're below average. In Sub Saharan Africa, the 60IQ idiots are the average. That's Africa's problem.

George True said...

Kim Dutoit wrote a landmark essay some years back entitled 'Let Africa Sink'. Is this the same essay, or a different one?

The Freeholder said...

Sane essay. It's worth re-reading every time something major brews up in Africa.

Anonymous said...

"...perhaps the Communist Chinese would step in and increase their influence in the area. There are two reasons why this isn’t going to happen.

Firstly, the PRC doesn’t have that kind of money to throw around; and secondly, the result of any communist assistance will be precisely the same as if it were Western assistance. For the record, Mozambique and Angola are both communist countries — and both are economic disaster areas. The prognosis for both countries is disastrous — and would be the same for any other African country."

He's mostly on point in this essay, but he's completely full of shit here. Then again, it's not like China actually gives a rat's ass about the Africans - they're not there to help the Africans solve their problems, they just want the resources beneath them. After watching "Empire of Dust" (it's free on Youtube), the Chinese are well aware that the Africans are beyond saving and have no will or desire to help themselves.

I have long suspected that it's primarily Chinese funding, and not so much people like George Soros (although he's not without blame) that's funding the waves of refugees from sub-Saharan Africa into Europe. It's actually a good strategy to get the Africans out of the way so that the Chinese can do what they're there to do. China almost exclusively imports their own workers and will almost never use African workers. Also, interestingly the Chinese will go out of their way to spend so much as a nickel of their money in the African economy.

- JL

Anonymous said...

EDIT: Also, interestingly the Chinese will go out of their way to NOT spend so much as a nickel of their money in the African economy

- JL

Anonymous said...

Why Dallas again? Are we the "melting pot" now? Julia

Stealth Spaniel said...

Well, that made me feel all warm and cozy. I hope everyone has that 90 days of hibernation supplies for hound and family when the whole action sequence goes live. No one out, no one in-am I right? Nothing like a little Diversity and we-are-the-world BS to keep the home fires burning. Sheesh!

Sentenza said...

They've got refugees from that part of the Congo down in southern Mexico already.

Aesop said...

Read closer.
I didn't say Dallas is getting it again, I said whatever city gets it will be Dallas Redux.

Dallas is certainly in the running, but where and when is up for grabs, and there are a lot of contenders this time around in the Who Wants To Kick Off A Pandemic Breeding Ground? Sweepstakes.

Anonymous said...

I wonder if (when?) this arrives here, the US gubmint will play hush to deter public panic.
If they do, it'll be over very quickly and they'll be playing eternal catch up.

Anonymous said...

OK. Preps from 14 will be reviewed, assessed and updated. Damn.
Boat Guy

Unknown said...

From the graph I picked a random date to compare to last date. For random date, I selected 10/21. While total cases have increased the deaths per total cases have remained the same. What can we make of that?


Unknown said...

That would be...'percentage of deaths per total cases'....


Dan said...

It's kind of a race to see what massive disaster strikes us first.....
Will it be Yellowstone burping killing billions.
Will it be a pandemic ( and Ebola isn't the ONLY candidate).
Will the US and China escalate from words and 'showing the flag' to something much more kinetic.
Will RocketMan Kim decide to join the civilized world or will he go for broke and
start something.
Then there's the ready made stew of stupidity and hatred that is the 'sandbox'
and the billion plus savages that comprise Islamism.

The list of things that can go wrong is pretty damn long, and since we are
a CLEVER species, not an intelligent one whatever it is will take us
"Completely by surprise".....even though many have warned about the possibilities
for a long time.

Domo said...

The US steamrollering north korea (everyone seems to forget how long Sadam lasted because the insurgents held on longer) or even a serious US/China war would be a minor inconvenience compared with a serious pandemic.

In a year Spanish flu killed more than the first world war.

Anonymous said...

Have the "authorities" identified the host species (other than humans and I use humans loosely here) yet?


Anonymous said...

Thanks for the info. What role can the experimental vaccine play in these proceedings?

Suz said...

I saw this article the other day about how African Swine Fever, which is a hemorrhagic virus that kills pigs, has now turned up in China.

The 2 take-away points I had were the fact that the Chinese import controls were not enough to catch this before it got in-country, and that some fool said basically not to worry because this doesn't affect humans, it affects hogs. I thought about all the testing on hogs that goes on for medicines, and of items like heart valves that are used from hogs for people as we are supposed to be rather close physiologically. Also about how swine flu and avian flu both seemed to get their start in China. From animals. And it is a VIRUS, which means it mutates however it wants!!

Just me, but I think this could be a tad more concerning than just a higher cost for bacon.

Anonymous said...

What is your take on the current Measles outbreak? It seems that the media is freaking out over it... I imagine that they will downplay Ebola should it arrive here.

Bear Claw Chris Lapp said...

You've been seeing that there for several months", I think you meant centuries

Bear Claw Chris Lapp said...

And if it does cross the border it will be like building the wall and immigration should stop.

The Gray Man said...

Going to repost this with my own thoughts added at the end, with a link to RR of course. My blog is light on ebola stuff because, well, because. Not anymore. I work in an ER and I can’t imagine the meltdown if we got even one case. It would be like a nuke strike if we ended up with two. I think our staff would all quit. Our hospital protocol is heavy on “call the switchboard” and light on anything that would actually help.

Anonymous said...

@ Domo " Domo said...
The US steamrollering north korea (everyone seems to forget how long Sadam lasted because the insurgents held on longer)"

Steamrolled in, got bogged, still haven't won, won't ever win.

You mentioned WWI, well WWI gutted the wealth of Europe, culled the bulk of the warrior class leaving Europe in such a weakened state it can't even stop unarmed third worlders on rubber rafts from taking over their streets. But let's be fair. The US can't even secure it's own border from unarmed third worlders.

Clown World indeed

Anonymous said...

Everyone reading your posts on this are well aware of the threat this poses, and then you have people who beive this shit;

I would say it will be entertaining to watch, but that's too close to the action and puts one in a position to become a casualty statistic of this bitch.

Dave said...

Have a nice day.

Aesop said...

Thanks, but I've already seen the 5/26 WHO report, and it isn't any better.
There'll be an update Saturday on the 1st.