Being dragged kicking and screaming to an essay is getting to be a regular thing, so here's today's thought exercise.
Apparently, some people keep picking the booger of California secession, and then they can't help eating it. (Pat Buchanan, call your office.)
And wiser heads than mine have noted that the easiest way to slay a stupid position is to grant its premise. So let's go with that.
Somehow, we'll ignore history, common sense, and naked reality (pretty much like CA's political parties have done jointly here for 40 years, to be fair), and assume the baker's dozen actual supporters of CA seceding from the United States manage to convince a majority of voters amongst 30 million of their friends and neighbors to vote for CalExit (because where there's smoke, it's the tail exhaust of flying pigs).
So Governor Moonbeam and the
Half the Pacific Fleet is homeported in Alameda, Long Beach, and San Diego.
So, when President Trump declares the entire state in rebellion to the union, and orders the crews of any numbers of those ships to launch cruise missiles into the state capitol building, the governor's mansion, etc., and knowing that their families are hostage to the whims of the leftists attempting secession, and knowing how radical and contrary and out-and-out leftist the members of the US military are(n't), how many sailors are going to say "No, Mr. President."?
(Or should the question be better phrased as "How long before they carpet bomb every city's government centers with cruise missiles and cluster bombs, and napalm most of the UC campuses, movie studios, television and radio stations "just to be safe"?)
One third of the Marine Corps - the First Marine Division, the First Marine Air Wing, etc. - is located at Camp Pendleton, Miramar MCAS, and MCB Twentynine Palms.
When SecDef Mattis tells them to seize and defend San Diego, the greater Los Angeles area as far north as Santa Barbara, and secure the US border with Mexico, do you figure they're going to take a pass?
And how many people do you think they'll have to kill outright, vs. how many will they round up and hold in their underpants in stockades in the desert at 29 Palms, for sedition and treason trials in batches?
When reinforced by USAF squadrons from Nellis AFB in Nevada, and from AFBs in AZ and NM, how long do you think it will take components of the USAF at Vandenburg AFB and Edwards AFB, etc. to reduce Sacramento, San Francisco, and most of leftist bastions in coastal CA from Monterey to Oregon to smoking Dresden-like heaps of ashes after the firestorm? Will it be a full hour, or more like seven minutes?
How long will it take the tenant OPFOR Regt. at the NTC, and whatever unit is training there, to road march up the Central Valley and surround Sacramento, and send a detached combined arms company team to secure the California Aqueduct, cutting off LA's water supply, and nipping the rebellion in the bud?
When the 40th Div., CA NG (yes, the frickin' CA National Guard) is informed they've been federalized, do they honor their oaths, or become the palace guard of the 40-second commissariat?
(Or more realistically, how long before they call the Pentagon and let them know that have Gov. Moonbeam's head - just that - mounted on a handy display pole?)
When the 40-45% of Californians who vote Republican, own metric fucktons of guns, and are sick of the nanny-statist shit going back 50 years have the opportunity to start taking out the opposition, do you figure their biggest problem will be organizing, or will it be making sure everyone has enough targets to shoot at, so no one feels left out before it's all over, way too fast, and the inevitable clean-up of bodies has to begin?
And will they have to take out the cops defending the new communist utopia, or will their biggest problem be keeping up with the cops who change sides en masse, organize, and start taking out every city government pro-actively, and holding them under arrest in Death Valley until the arrival of federal forces from outside CA?
When the eastern 3/4's of the state that is redder than a sunburned pig realizes there's no way past them, especially after AZ, NV, and OR NG units are federalized and seal the borders, do they march on the coastal enclaves and go all Genghis Khan, lopping off heads, pillaging, and so on; or do they simply drive the leftist herds of footie pajama-clad cocoa-sipping nancy boys right into the fucking Pacific, and watch them swim (partway) to China?
That takes us to Monday afternoon, on the first day after the vote, to about 2PM.
We can stop there, and anyone who sees that going some other way can show their work in comments.
My biggest quandary if this looked like it had a snowball's chance in hell would be wondering if I could get a good file and handle to sharpen my bayonet, or whether prep time would be better spent acquiring a pair of waders to keep the blood running in the streets from ruining a perfectly good pair of trousers. And wondering whether it's more ethical to loan Molotov cocktails, versus selling them for cash to those who hadn't brought any from home.
Fucking hell, people, if you could just vote yourself your own little communist paradise, does anybody seriously think MA, NJ, and NYFC wouldn't have been independent countries like, 40 years ago??
Get a farking cluebat, and smack yourselves over the head with it if you're falling for this efflulvia.
{Nota bene this is a no-lose proposition: I either get to laugh at people taking this seriously, or I get to participate in regime change within range of a tank of gas, and set to undoing a half century's unbridled leftism at the cyclic rate of the contents of the gun safe. I'm trying to see a down side.}
Bonus round: Given current Republican control of the presidency, both houses of congress, and a conservative majority once again in the Supreme Court, who wants to bet cash money that five minutes after a vote to secede from a state from exactly the opposite political leadership, the Democrat Party is officially listed as a subversive and seditious organization, their leadership rounded up and imprisoned, and every registered party member/voter in 50 states put on terrorist watch lists. And spotting you the five minutes is the best odds you'll get on that.
Please, do tell me how that isn't ever going to happen.
But stay out of the doorway, through which 20-50% of former members of the Democrat Party would momentarily be streaming past, in a rush to change sides, and get to breathe free oxygen for awhile longer.
Secession would become Tet 2017, with Ds playing the VC, and there won't be any Walter Crankhype to try and snatch victory from out of the jaws of overwhelming strategic defeat.
And when the Democrats get let out of Manzanar in a decade or three, given the sedition involved, we won't even owe them any reparations.
Be still, my beating heart.
43 comments:
As a Tennessee Volunteer I would pay to in on dat!
All this secession talk is sort of amusing. My reading of history tells me that secession was settled, for good or bad, at Appomattox Courthouse in 1865.
But it would be fun if they tried. People in the Central Valley don't like those bastards on the coast, most of whom moved here from some other state. Picture a column of the Kern County Dragoons burning Nancy Pelosi's winery.
Monty James
All these are the best reasons to ENCOURAGE the simple communist fucks in every way possible ! You are fuckin this up.
Maybe it's time to stop talking about whether or not Californication will vote for secession, and start talking (the rest of us, that is) about expulsion.
All this talk is just being used as a pressure release for the hot headed goof balls. No way would the fearless leaders for life give up the power they have, knowing they would have none if they really managed to break away. NOG
@Anonymous 8:06
That's about the most jackassical thing suggested, and surpasses the original secession idea.
1) CA feeds you, other than corn or wheat, as it has for the last half-century or more, as well as the rest of the world.
2) As they're largely untapped, the coastal shelf oil fields there are probably richer than the GoM fields, which is continued energy production that doesn't fund islam.
3) The military bases I mentioned: you figure you could just kiss them off?
3a) And would look forward to them as advanced bases for China, Russia, or just Mexico? Genius!
4) You would effectively increase the Mexican border with the US by more than 1000 miles, moving their jump-off point 800 miles closer to OR/WA, and 400 closer to the intermountain West. And you haven't shown any inclination since the 1950s to enforce the shorter one you have.
5) Pacific imports and exports would slow to a trickle, and you'd piss away the two largest west coast ports you have, while adding 1000-2000 miles to get goods into Portland or Seattle, instead of Long Beach or the Bay Area.
6) Silicon Valley goes with the deal too. You now have a US absent that tech gold mine.
7) You've pissed away 10% of your tax base in perpetuity. That means you all get a 10% tax rate hike overnight.
8) All that US debt and deficit? Your problem. CA walks away without owing a dime. Genius!!
9) They could simply take half the taxes of FedGov, and deliver the same services, giving their population an overnight 50% tax cut. They could eliminate business taxes entirely, and that giant sucking sound would be all those former US businesses moving into vacated plants in CA.
10) Reruns forever. And you'd lose all the TV/movie production that left CA, and it'd never be coming back to your state. That's only a few $B/yr.
I'ma guess economics isn't your strong suit.
Thanks for playing though.
And BTW, under US law, as natural-born citizens, everyone in CA would be a dual-citizen for life.
So when the gravy train runs out, we'll ship your toothless banjo-playing kinfolk back to you, FedEx. 'bout time they moved back in with y'all.
Aesop,
Loved this post, your blog, and love your last reply here, but as a citizen of California I'll take you point by point on this, though I do agree that kicking us out of the country is an astronomically stupid idea, and I prefer the scenario in your post.
1) California's agriculture industry is under serious pressure by the shitheads on the coast complaining about agriculture's use of water. As a power base in Sacramento it's lost to LA and the Bay Area, and doesn't have the power it once did. It's gotten so bad that people are feverishly trying to genetically engineer an almond tree that can withstand an early frost that can be grown through the middle region of the U.S. instead of California, and not a few cattle ranchers and poultry producers have moved on to TX, KS, and other states that are vastly, VASTLY more farmer friendly. Meanwhile, though I live here in CA, the supermarkets keep trying to sell me tomatoes and lettuce grown in Mexico, so I'm not so sure we're feeding as many people as we used to, since we don't seem to be feeding our OWN state at this point.
2) Agreed, but the environmentalists won't let us touch them. Hell, it took how many years to get a freaking Carlsbad going because of the 5 lawsuits brought against it because of brine? Oil off the coast? Possible, but what a battle. Moonbeam's looking for oil on his own land means nothing... it's good enough for him, but not for us little folks, as is usual here.
3 and 3 a) Point given to you. Thank goodness.
4) Also point given.
5) Seattle and Portland won't mind a bit, and the Chinese will use Long Beach and the Bay Area regardless of whether CA is part of the US or not. It just makes for more expense for the rest of the county to import from those ports then. That might get them in the pockets for sure, but it wouldn't slow anything to a trickle, just make it a touch more expensive. The Chinese, who enjoy earning of the money, would deliberately flood the market to keep prices lower for the other 47 anyhow. Kind of a wash.
6) Silicon Valley was built on the back of Fairchild Semiconductor, Lockheed, etc. who used to hire actual engineers. Now they're mainly a bunch of blowhards with vaporware and cloud computing (I'm old enough to remember when it was called having a mainframe and dumb terminals.. SSDD) and social networking except up on Sand Hill Road, and M.I.T. and the 95 corridor could take up any hardware development slack, them and Austin. That's the goldmine now - Sand Hill Road. Everything else is just so much chaff. It's a REALLY small area, and people can move.
7) Yes. Point given.
8) Yes, also point given.
9) That would require people in Sacramento to see a tax they didn't like (that would be when the sun rises in the West). Otherwise they'd just keep that all for their own selves and still not a decent road, bridge, or infrastructure project worth a dam in sight (I pun, I pun!). They'd be able to deal with that pesky old CalPERS pension problem though!
10) Headquarters can be moved, Vancouver would take up a lot of the slack, Pinewood in London is the base of a lot of productions now, and it's not like actors and producers and everyone in Hollywood and the surrounds would stop making movies and shows because California stopped being a state anyhow. Though God knows an original idea would be nice.. might force them into that some. Writers of the actual stories tend to live all over the place worldwide, and they're the backbone anyhow, though with no to little credit. Hollywood usually screws up what's written in any case... Asimov is probably going to choke anyone involved with "I, Robot" in the afterlife. I can hope so, anyhow.
No, I much prefer your original scenario. Let them secede, and then let them be dealt with. I'm up here in the mountains... if they stay off my lawn, all will be fine. If not, all will be fine in different ways, because my neighbors feel the same way.
“Somehow, we’ll ignore history, common sense, and naked reality (pretty much like CA’s political parties have done jointly here for 40 years, to be fair)”
This is why it could happen. The rest of the article is just why its a dumb idea. As the author himself admits, being a dumb idea has never stopped leftists before. Hell, its almost like waving a red cape in front of a bull.
I could see Trump acting gleefully to suppress it, but do you honestly think other Republicans wouldn't act in just the same feckless manner they always have?
Your order of battle is wrong....
There are no naval forces in Long Beach (Long Beach Naval Base was sold off, to the Chinese). I think the same happened to Alameda / SF Bay area operational bases.
Neither Edwards AFB nor Vandenburg have any real operational forces, AT ALL. Likewise Nellis, which is a training facility.
As far as the 40th ID (M), well....ammo is at Camp Roberts in the ASP. Beyond that, who knows? Most of the troops are questionable (and I was in the 40th).
"leftist bastions in coastal CA from Monterrey to Oregon" — Monterey is in California; Monterrey is in Mexico.
Picky, picky, picky.
"4) You would effectively increase the Mexican border with the US by more than 1000 miles, moving their jump-off point 800 miles closer to OR/WA, and 400 closer to the intermountain West. And you haven't shown any inclination since the 1950s to enforce the shorter one you have."
This assumes Oregon and Washington do not jump on the bandwagon and secede as well. Holding the entire West Coast hostage by turning the remaining USA into an Atlantic-only nation is a helluva bargaining chip for negotiation.
Anonymous at 10:38 AM,
If Oregon and Washington were to join in on the whole thing, the one thing to keep in mind is that environmentalists tend to dislike things like water storage, power generation, decent infrastructure upkeep, and all of those piffling things that make a modern society work.
"Negotiation" didn't work back in 1864 when Sherman "negotiated" with Atlanta, and now it won't work when California's power grid goes down and their water supply is cut off (pesky old Colorado River not actually BELONGING to California, and all). A little more humane than Sherman, but not by much. Oregon and Washington would backpedal so hard they might actually be able to generate power just that way alone, really.
And you're going to store the Colorado River water you would theoretically withhold...where, exactly?? Your pockets?
Rivers that are international borders, and get f***ed with, lead to wars.
So did you figure you'd have a better shot of diverting it, or them of blowing up a couple of dams, and ending that discussion for some decades?
And incidentally, that'd pretty much end Las Vegas and Phoenix as viable cities.
Well-played, sir. You've just added two states to their movement, and NM and CO are already on shaky ground.
Push a little harder, and you could make their plan work beyond your wildest dreams: you'd have imported Cuba to the US' doorstep, and given them the entire Southwest as far as El Paso.
Think, dammit.
Why fight it--let them go.
Don't waste resources or lives to make them stay.
After the welfare payments stop, the snowflakes on the coast side can't get their $10 lattes, and the "49 state US" pulls out all of its equipment, offices, manpower that wants to leave, etc -- it'll be interesting.
In the riots that then take over, let the rest of the US do what its long done to 4th world countries -- furnish arms, advice, etc to the "East/North Californians" and let them "have their way".
Let it be an internal Calif conflict, and if the winners are the "East/North side" -- offer up the chance to rejoin the "US".
If by some chance the winners are the west -- blockade the ports, and all mainland shipping, cutoff the water that comes from the Rockies, and the out of state sourced electricity, gas etc, and economically (or otherwise) starve them out.
I suspect the percentage of true "sympathizers to the Calif way" east of the Rockies is small
It'd be fun to watch
Thoughtful essay, with one exception. When we decide to "go out" (look it up) you gonna try the same thing here?
FWIW! I would advise against it.
We don't wear footie jammies and except for Dallas and Austin don't much care for mocha soy lattes.
Best wishes with that nonsense, James.
How'd it work out for you last time you tried it?
You're figuring you'd do better against the 1st Armored Division this time around?
Show your work.
People (exactly like the @$$holes here in CA) who keep trying to find magical-thinking childish bullshit solutions to sitting down, and digging their way out of a decades-long problem they've screwed themselves into, are going to get a hard comeuppance, and it's going to leave a mark.
Aesop,
Wouldn't need to withhold any water, and Lake Mead would be fine. The water from the Colorado River is PUMPED to the LA Basin. It's not all gravity fed, there's electricity involved in those pumps. Switch off parts of Path 46 into the state, water becomes pretty scarce. Not a pleasant thought, but that's civil war for you. It's usually NOT pleasant, as you know. Nobody else would join in because they'd still have their water and power.
Seriously, I AM thinking. The problem is the nutcases calling for secession or kicking California out AREN'T. California is NOT self-sustainable, it imports nearly 30% of the power it needs. Period. That's a thought. If these fruitbats want secession, they need to think through what they'd need to do to actually generate their own water and power - and that would require more power generation, more reservoirs, and less griping about smelt.
Anon,
You fell for the lie that the winners of the Second War of Independence imposed on us all- Northerners and Southrons alike.
The North proved only that the stronger army won and had nothing to do with which cause was right.
Example:
You join a gym. You even sign a contract. After a couple of months gym management changes. The place is now dirty. The staff is now rude. The monthly rate keeps increasing and increasing. You decide that this gym is not the place you want to be and decide to leave.
But, the gym management won't let you. They send armed goons over to your house, beat you and your wife and your children up (they shoot your dog for good measure) and make you sign a perpetual contract that they say allows them to repeat the tactics should you decide to leave again, even if the raise the rates 1000%, turn the heat off in the pool,
Question: What would you do then, tough guy?
Should secession actually be allowed by Congress, California would be annexed by Mexico following an impromptu referendum (both countries being eligible to vote). Within 24 hours, Gov Brown's body would be discovered in a jail cell having been sodomized to death.
Shortly afterwards, a 'border incident' will lead to the US Mexican War - Grande Edition. Following the defeat of Mexico's armed forces by the Rhode Island National Guard, all Mexican nationals will be expelled from the United States as enemy aliens.
The reunited United States will carry on as usual. Gov Brown's sodomized body will be embalmed like Lenin and put on display in Sacramento.
Me, I figure that the progressive types in Silicon Valley would do their best to mess with the banking system, crash Wall Street and kill the Internet.
The bases would do their best to lock down. I don't see any reason for them to actually attack anyone, just defend.
Arizona cuts water and power to S. California - Lake Mead can hold years worth of the Colorado river - and sets up to protect Boulder.
Faced with a power shortage, Gov Moonbeam has 'essential government services' provided for, and tries to implement rolling blackouts everywhere else. There's enough water for now, he figures.
With power out and the EBT cards no longer working even when it isn't, the 'vibrant' population loots and riots. Police are given contradictory orders and give up, retreating to protect their own. National Guard refuse to follow Moonbeam's orders and fort themselves up as well.
Within a week, with no other actions needed, California begs to be let back in the Union. By the way, could you guys turn the power and water back on?
Its a long one.
Part 1
A Unilateral Declaration of Independence would be met with war, it would have to be.
I wouldn't get too excited though, there is little reason to believe the Occupation of the California Free State would be any more successful than the Occupation of Afghanistan.
Nor would a I expect a nationwide effort to round up Democrats to go well, Texans are unlikely to look kindly on efforts to round up Texans.
But a UDI is practically unthinkable.
A "none binding", county by county, "would you be interested in a California Free State" referendum to establish a proposed border, followed by a one man one vote leave/remain vote, is highly unlikely, but far more likely than an occupation and arresting of the Governor of Colorado. Yes, Colorado, if you think you can arrest and replace the governments of the Democrat controlled states, you will be installing military governments in their place.
As I said, its unlikely.
But if they did vote out, in free and fair elections, there isnt going to be a war to drag them back.
The specifics
"Half the Pacific Fleet is homeported in Alameda, Long Beach, and San Diego."
And there they will stay for the many months or few years it takes to agree the dissolution, and then they will depart for Hawaii, Alaska, Washington and Oregon, or perhaps they will stay for another year, or two, or twenty, if the bases are leased for a number of years Crimea, or perhaps the bases will be leased indefinitely, like the Sovereign Base Areas of Cyprus.
"1) CA feeds you, other than corn or wheat, as it has for the last half-century or more, as well as the rest of the world."
And still would
Throughout the entirety of the cold war, Russia sold the United States oil and the United States sold Russia grain.
California would no longer get preferential access the the American grocery store, but it would be madness of, admittedly Trumpian* proportions, to deny them any access.
*I would've voted for him
"3) The military bases I mentioned: you figure you could just kiss them off?"
Build new ones.
There are at least half a dozen deep water anchorages on the east coast, based on a quick shoot up the coast on google maps. Land and Air bases are even easier.
"3a) And would look forward to them as advanced bases for China, Russia, or just Mexico? Genius"
Maybe, which would likely lead to US pressure on the Free California Repubic of the "no water for you, now behave or be nuked" variety, so maybe not.
Put it this way, if China and the USSR have been unable to get a foothold in CEntral America, what can they possibly offer FCR?
"5) Pacific imports and exports would slow to a trickle, and you'd piss away the two largest west coast ports you have, while adding 1000-2000 miles to get goods into Portland or Seattle, instead of Long Beach or the Bay Area."
There are literally laws that deal with cargo containers travelling through intermediary countries.
Theres no reason a ship cant take cargo in China, dock in FCR, unload its cargo and train/truck it to the new US border.
But worst case, 1000 miles is two days at sea.
Part 2
"6) Silicon Valley goes with the deal too. You now have a US absent that tech gold mine."
Both Amazon and Microsoft are based in Washington, theres no reason to believe the others would remain in California, or that California would try and restrict US access to them, or that they would remain if it did.
"8) All that US debt and deficit? Your problem. CA walks away without owing a dime. Genius!!"
Unlikely.
How the national debt, and unfunded social obligations, would be divided would be an interesting part of the talks.
"10) Reruns forever. And you'd lose all the TV/movie production that left CA, and it'd never be coming back to your state. That's only a few $B/yr."
California's TV production is going to go downhill fast if it has a potential viewership of 40 million, not 320 million.
"And BTW, under US law, as natural-born citizens, everyone in CA would be a dual-citizen for life."
Funny thing about laws, they can be changed...
Again, part of the Dissolution would deal with this.
Reading lists
Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union
Dissolution_of_Czechoslovakia
Partition_of_India
Partition_of_Ireland
Breakup_of_Yugoslavia
Australia#Nationhood
History_of_Kenya#Independence
And of course
Brexit
Some bloody, some not.
The Czechoslovakia case is the most illuminating, it was all a bit boring really.
Ultimately, my only objection is the inclusion of "Coke sipping" when decribing the PJBoys of the Left. No need to denigrate a great American product.
I agree with most of the post. The only thing you missed is the Thief's from the water shed states that will still demand the money they are stealing from us. If Cali. does not pay they will allow us to start using the rain water and snow pack from our land without having a armored vehicle with twenty armed idiots kill us and our family's. We might be able to have a pond on our land without ending up in jail. Hundreds of miles of farm ground will be allowed to be farmed again because we will have the water again. This is just a few of the things that we have been sold out to California because you pay more for the water. My only complaint would be that California's would no longer drink my urine that I willingly give you every day.
The gainsaying is getting pretty thick here.
@Anonymous 12:20
No, the water from the Colorado River is net gravity fed. There are pumping stations to get it uphill in some sections, but the system runs a net surplus from the river to Los Angeles.
Something to do with gravity & physics, and sea level being lower than the inland, y'spose?
The place to cut the feed to L.A. is any one of a dozen stations along the aqueduct.
Trying to hold it behind a dam just provides a single point of failure, and as indicated, threatens the long-term viability of both Las Vegas and Phoenix, both heavily dependent on the current power generation and water storage that would be put at risk.
Cutting the aqueduct in between the two does neither of those.
California buys its power because it can. Cutting it off would be a short-term problem. Those with memories shorter than their peckers would do well to note that Gov. Moonbeam's earlier terms as governor had him not just wanting, but pimping for, a mammoth investment in nuclear power plants, constructed far from the fault lines. Only The China Syndrome/Three Mile Island put a damper on those schemes. The would return. But that's long-term.
In the interim, oil and NG-fired plants would be constructed, in CA and/or Mexico, and likely with the interested help of Russia, China, or both.
CA is also one of the few states that could meet most domestic power needs with rooftop solar for >90% of the year.
And absent direct action, the power and EBT cards would run unhindered. Which is why FedGov would hinder it actively.
And in a tech throwdown between Silicon Valley and DC, the three-letter agencies would be spanked, and rue the day. That's why immediate action and brute force would be required: otherwise, time favors the rebellion, not the union.
@James
I repeat, best wishes with secession.
v1.0 was likely a taste of things to come if anybody else tries it, but some people have to grab the hot stove with both hands to get properly educated.
What I would do, at that point, is laugh at others' misfortune, which is the basis of all good comedy.
@Signifying Nothing
Any attempt by Mexico to horn in on things would pretty much lead to ethnic cleansing from Oregon to Tijuana, if not all the way to La Paz and Acapulco.
Followed by immediate withdrawal, letting the cartels finish the job, and 80M Mexicans attempting to flee across the Rio Grande as Mexico descends into an interminable period of revolution, counter-revolution, and anarchy.
CA, by contrast, only has a couple hundred miles of Mexican border to defend, the vast majority of it inhospitable and difficult to traverse.
It would take little more than an angry battalion, or a short regiment, to make that stretch impassable indefinitely.
@Domo
No one would need to round up Democrats nationwide. Just the leadership, mostly in DC. That would take about half a day, coast to coast, Texan or not.
The rest would simply be electronically marked, and grounded. The 27 or 30 who could live off the grid indefinitely might be okay; the rest could be picked up onsey-twosey indefinitely, with about as much trouble as pulling radishes from the backyard garden for a salad. Welcome to the information age.
Military government wouldn't be utterly unnecessary. The opposition parties in every instance would fill the gap seamlessly, and in most cases, enthusiastically.
As noted above, putting down a rebellion is what would happen, not a long drawn out negotiation. Missiles would fly, and the jig would be up in a day.
This isn't Russia in the 19-teens.
3) Build all the new bases you want. None of them face the Pacific. Kind of a problem unless you want to be a one-ocean power, and simultaneously invite one or both major powers into your back forty, forever.
3a) Spoken like a man who hasn't counted the cost of footing the bill for the increase in transport, both ways. And who'd be paying CFR for the privilege if allowed to exist.
6) Think again.
They'd wave their hands and say "National Security". Those HQs were moved to DC because of FedGov antitrust shakedown shenanigans. Neither company has any love for FedGov, and would likely shrug, and apologize for sticking both their thumbs in Uncle's eyes if a secession looked viable.
This would make things at NSA, CIA, and FBI -just for starters -...interesting. And not in a good way.
8) Dream on. CA would suggest the FedGov tried pounding sand up its ass with a shovel to pay any of those debts and obligations. In about as long as it took me to type that. What's your Plan B on that which doesn't become a shooting war?
10) Potential viewership would be the same as it is now: worldwide, 24/7/365/forever. Unless you're a huge fan of daytime soaps, or you've got a kickass cable access channel, you'd be tuning into it just like you have your entire life, and the money would flow one way.
Changing citizenship laws? To deny natural-born Americans their citizenship rights?!?
AHAHAHAHAHAHA
Yeah, call me when you get that Constitutional amendment passed.
It's been, what, forty-fifty years since anyone could get even a simple one across the plate?
Good luck and all.
Sitting back and working out details is a non-starter, unless Trump wants to be the American Gorbachev.
Hawaii would declare independence the following week, Alaska probably within a month.
Whether OR and WA wanted to confederate with CA, they'd probably be itching to leave as well.
NV, CO, AZ, and NM would be up for grabs.
And Utah is anyone's guess.
Letting that happen would be a short recipe for Sarajevo.
And an East v. West Civil War v2.0 would have a much different flavor than North v. South did a century and a half ago.
James in Fort Worth, and all his friends and neighbors, might even get an honest go at Texas becoming an independent republic after all, under those circumstances.
Which is why it wouldn't be allowed to happen for more than about 30 seconds.
Speaking of the Civil War, one man who may have had more to do with the North's victory than any other, was General George H. Thomas, a Virginian. As argued by author Benson Bobrick in his book "Master of War".
https://books.google.com/books/about/Master_of_War.html?id=5UhAysq1S5kC&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button
An alternate take for those who think Calexit has the same chance in hell that Brexit and President Trump did for the "experts" before those things happened.
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2012/10/how-it-could-happen-part-four-crossing.html
Read Parts 1-3 for the full effect but the meat and bones of what's being discussed can be found here in Part Four. Part Five is optional but gives us a glimpse of what American Balkanization could look like.
Here is where he shows his work for those that are interested:
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-post-american-future_7.html
Its all a matter of strategy. It could play out as you predict. However lets consider. The Lefties go from San Diego all the way to SacBee declare independence. The first thing that happens is Jefferson is formed pronto. What's left is that coastal strip. Let it go. It destroys the Democratic party for a generation. But before that even is solidified, a decade out the Lefties have run out of money. You could then send 2nd squad, first platoon in to clean stuff up, declare it all a national theme park and call it a day.
Its just a matter of patience.
Tucanae,
You imagine a level of common sense and patience that has never been evident in recorded human history.
That would require two bloodless separations rather than one, and even one would be enough to signal the breakup of the US, in a matter of days.
Never. Going. To. Happen.
Too many interests, too many rice bowls in play, all of whom are going to say not "No.", but "HELL NO!" to even the first attempt.
Come back to reality; the weather is nice here.
It's fun to dream, but you can't build a house in those clouds.
It also begs credibility that we'd be willing to spend blood and treasure to defend a nanometer-wide black dotted line at the borders, but happily kiss off 5-10% of our citizenry (and the taxes they pay), and the prime territory, by every standard, of our third-largest state, with nothing but a wave good bye, on the hope they'd fail.
Unless someone has been smoking the same thing the Calexit 'tards have been.
Because nothing but bong hits laced with LSD could make anyone think this has any shot at all, of either happening, or succeeding, let alone bloodlessly.
All I have on my side of that argument is every bit of history since writing was scratches on clay tablets, but I'm open to reasonable dispute.
As I noted in the post, this is a win-win deal for me.
If the Leftists just want to go, the ports and airlines are open.
But if they want to take the state they're in with them -which they didn't build - all I ask is they first pony up the wherewithal to go from Lexington to Yorktown, or get hung by the neck until dead for the attempt, exactly as they deserve.
Like any other game, history has rules, and the proprieties will be observed.
@Anonymous 8:04,
I thought neither Trump's election nor Brexit was unlikely; just the opposite. Mainly because the lamestream media said not.
So go back, and tell me where most of the gas pumping up this turd of an idea is coming from in the first place; no prizes for guessing who's been the only ones gaslighting this farcical idea beyond any rational logic.
"Because nothing but bong hits laced with LSD could make anyone think this has any shot at all, of either happening, or succeeding, let alone bloodlessly."
Bloodlessly? Hell Naw. No way, Jose. That's baked into the cake at this point. Happening or succeeding? Odds are changing on that bet all the time. I might have even bet against it a year or two ago. Now? Tough times and hard limits are squeezing the common sense out our collective noggins faster than you can say, 'La La Land' and remember, that Oscar got snatched from their mitts and given to Moonlight. An apt metaphor for our times. I'm of the opinion that Civil War will come before secession this time around.
(Nota Bene, what will start as a small resistance movement to [insert political grievance/movement here] will turn into the Hurricane Katrina of shit storms the moment General Shit for Brains and Head-in-Rear Admiral Fuck Face decide they like the smell of Napalm in the morning.)
"Never. Going. To. Happen."
Facts on the ground say we stopped living in that world circa 2009. Trump showed us this truth last November when he popped a bubble that should have been popped a hundred times by now starting way back when good old Governor Reagan put his hand on the bible 36 years ago. But that cowboy pulled an oil drum out of his 10-gallon hat and we've all been drinking the black Kool-Aid ever since. Impossible? I see 11 impossible things happen before breakfast. Every day. You can add 365/forever to that once the economy explodes.
Parts 1 and 2 again, must learn brevity
"3) Build all the new bases you want. None of them face the Pacific. Kind of a problem unless you want to be a one-ocean power, and simultaneously invite one or both major powers into your back forty, forever."
Seattle, West Port, Long Beach, Astoria, Tillamook, Yaquina, Winchester Bay and Coos Bay. I havent done more than a glance at google maps, but I'm sure the pacific fleet could variously be bunkered there.
"6) Think again.
They'd wave their hands and say "National Security". Those HQs were moved to DC because of FedGov antitrust shakedown shenanigans. Neither company has any love for FedGov, and would likely shrug, and apologize for sticking both their thumbs in Uncle's eyes if a secession looked viable.
This would make things at NSA, CIA, and FBI -just for starters -...interesting. And not in a good way."
They're Washington State, not DC.
"8) Dream on. CA would suggest the FedGov tried pounding sand up its ass with a shovel to pay any of those debts and obligations. In about as long as it took me to type that. What's your Plan B on that which doesn't become a shooting war?"
They might, but thats a pretty extremist position.
Again, Calexit wouldnt be the first ever partition of a state, there are historic examples of how this HAS happened, usually a mix of population and GDP. It also includes dividing Government assets. California could walk away, but it looks bad, and its hard to convince people to do business with you after the fact.
This is where your military comes in, a share of the debt also brings in a share of military assets, the FCR probably wouldnt want an aircraft carrier, but they might want a few wings of F16s and some Frigates.
They might exchange their share of all of the Federal Assets for a debt write off.
"10) Potential viewership would be the same as it is now: worldwide, 24/7/365/forever. Unless you're a huge fan of daytime soaps, or you've got a kickass cable access channel, you'd be tuning into it just like you have your entire life, and the money would flow one way."
As it does now then...
California currently sells TV to the rest of the world, it would continue to do so.
"Changing citizenship laws? To deny natural-born Americans their citizenship rights?!?
AHAHAHAHAHAHA"
Unless part of the negotiation above is that you either maintain US citizenship, or you renounce it and take up Californian.
Again, its been solved before.
"Hawaii would declare independence the following week, Alaska probably within a month.
Whether OR and WA wanted to confederate with CA, they'd probably be itching to leave as well.
NV, CO, AZ, and NM would be up for grabs.
And Utah is anyone's guess."
Well, UDIs would be met with violence, as I said originally.
Would they go through the long process of voting for it? Would the measures pass?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014
Without the "Small California" vote first, I doubt California would vote to leave. People rarely vote for change, even hope and change was a slogan rather than a quantifiable change.
"Which is why it wouldn't be allowed to happen for more than about 30 seconds."
Yeah, the USSR tried to keep arresting its territories in to continued membership, it never works long term.
Part 2
"It also begs credibility that we'd be willing to spend blood and treasure to defend a nanometer-wide black dotted line at the borders, but happily kiss off 5-10% of our citizenry (and the taxes they pay), and the prime territory, by every standard, of our third-largest state, with nothing but a wave good bye, on the hope they'd fail."
I suppose the natural response is how many Californians are you prepared to execute to keep the rest in line? Kill 'em all, god knows his own?
Again, I dont believe it is likely these votes would pass, but.
California holds a referendum on which counties wish to leave.
California holds a second referendum, in the Leave areas, and 80% vote out.
The Government of the Free California Republic declares its intention to leave and invites the United States to send a delegation to discuss the terms.
The United States bombs the governors office and deploys a Heliborne Ranger/Marine battalion to arrest the legislature and transport them to the US for trial.
A Random Republican loyal to the US is put in power.
How long do you reckon his life will be?
Do you reckon bombing down town San Francisco will make them more or less loyal to the United States?
And what happens next year when there is an election? Is there an election? Is there an election in which only parties / candidates approved by Trump can stand?
What happens in 5 years, or 10 years, or 15 years when the restrictions are lifted and the Free California Party wins?
Domo,
You can move the goalposts all you like, but it still doesn't get a score.
The national interest is unequivocally against letting a state go.
Pick your topic:
Population
political representation
federal budget
economics
national security
defense establishment
national survival
Letting CA try to leave simply throws a hand grenade into a dynamite factory.
Individuals want to go?
DLTDHYITAOYWO
They will not, however, be permitted to take, barter, trade, annex, seize, or any other synonym for abscond with, a portion of United States territory.
In fact, the non-consent of a sizeable contingent, both of civilians, and military dependents, will be all the pretext necessary for toppling the coup, exactly as described, as the shortest distance between two points.
And I didn't even get into the deep weeds of how the assets of the state would be seized, or the lawfare and further monkeywrenching the attempt, because it would all be over militarily before early supper on Day One, thus moot.
There won't be county-wide in/out votes. The referendum is all-or-nothing, which bakes internal civil war in CA into the cake from the get-go.
You posit that after the first insurrectas are imprisoned, things would go back to status-quo-ante for most people.
That's beyond delusional.
Alcatraz would probably be re-opened, and further shenanigans would be met with a diligent application of the Patriot Act. Perhaps you've heard of it.
I suspect conditions on the ground would change materially, and nationwide, exactly as I laid out. That would take as much blood and head thumping as it would take, but the alternative is Sarajevo on a continental scale.
Anybody agitating for that is flatly insane.
If you're actually on the ground here, you have some idea of how recockulous this entire bag of ass-gas is to those of us who live in CA. If it wasn't so psychotically demented, it'd be funny. (Much like our actual state government.) If you don't, you clearly don't know what you don't know.
And the pussies left years ago. The people left here and stuck with things have probably been pushed about as far and as fast as they're willing to go along with.
That bodes poorly for doubling down on socialism, but it gives vigilantism a great future, with the likelihood of federal intervention in short order inevitable.
CA (like about 40 other states) is about to explode with pension problems in due course anyways. They need this nonsense now like they need a sucking chest wound. Continued agitation will probably get them both.
And faced with national irrelevance with the loss of CA, the Democrats in the Other 49 will be the most strident advocates for bombing the living shit out of Sacramento, San Francisco, and West Hollywood; in particular, the congressional representatives of same. They've spent a political lifetime trying to get the whole dog; they aren't going to fall back now and settle for just the tail.
Don't get me wrong, Aesop; I agree with you completely about the desirability of actual secession and the bloodshed surely to follow. But there's a nasty little part of me that feels like we ought to be not just endorsing it, but insisting on it...and is grinning like a fiend over the outcome of your scenario. I know, I know; I can't help it. Watching them cry, whine, bitch, riot, and threaten a coup because they lost one damned election isn't helping still that demon voice in my head any. And I'm having trouble conceiving a way in which a would-be free people can coexist with determined and dedicated Stalinist/fascists bent on our subjugation. Sure, it was manageable when they were a fringe, even a sizable minority, and at least pretended to even a shred of patriotic respect for the Constitution. But I'm not sure they ARE a minority anymore, which spells trouble in the not-too-distant future, whether we like it or not. And they ain't getting my guns, no way in hell.
All interesting. What is very clear to me is that we are at a crossroads that reminds me of 1862. A HARD RESET is coming, some would argue it's already here and some have argued it's already happened, just that the results are "slow motion" until they aren't. Kalifornia is and has been a canary in the coal mine of the FUSA. Nearly every large city in the entire FUSA is a mini-Kalifornia, bucking at the constraints of the Constitution attempting to implement a Sharia/Marxist fuktopia without understanding ANY of it or studying all the "successful" attempts at either...there are NONE.
Keep your powder dry. It doesn't get better...not yet.
"Given current Republican control of the presidency, both houses of congress, and a conservative majority once again in the Supreme Court, who wants to bet cash money that five minutes after a vote to secede from a state from exactly the opposite political leadership, the Democrat Party is officially listed as a subversive and seditious organization, their leadership rounded up and imprisoned, and every registered party member/voter in 50 states put on terrorist watch lists"
Won't happen. The national level Democrat Party would be the staunchest possible opponent of California secession. The loss of those Electoral College votes would be fatal.
Perhaps, Jimmy, but more than likely, they'd have to pull a national forest out of their collective asses to straddle that fence.
The DNC would own secession (just like the first time it was tried), and they'd be rounded up in short order, after becoming 21st century Whigs.
300,000 Yankees died in the Civi War, and it took 4 years. The North was the industrial power. I don't think that's necessarily the case now. I'm sure the 1st armored division will make a strong showing at first buy how will they be reapplied. Every base I've worked on is dependent on civilians for power, water, telecom, food, mechanics, etc.
You don't have to take them on head first. Also, I would think there would be some division among the military. Generals would take sides. Plus soldiers would desert to go protect their families. Not as cut and dry as you make out. It would be messy for everyone.
1) You don't have a Confederacy. Nor will you.
2) You don't have an army in opposition. Nor will you.
3) "At first" is all you'll get. The ringleaders will be strung up while any notional opposition is still getting its collective $#!^ in one bag. This'd be over in hours, not years.
4) Division among the military is called mutiny. It would handled by courts martial, and while the protections for the innocent are better under military law than civilian, the punishments are more draconian. In the case of mutiny and sedition, I suspect we'd see people shot and hung, to make the point stick.
And any state in rebellion would be placed under martial law, with the same jurisprudence in effect. No habeas corpus, no bail, and military tribunals is not the court you want to face under such circumstances.
5) It would be messy, and bloody. And short.
When national survival is at stake, governments tend to have a sense of humor on a spectrum somewhere between that of the SS, and the KGB.
That is not a grindstone under which to be caught, nor to taunt lightly.
Surprised no one has yet mentioned Kurt Schlicter's novels "Indian Country" and "People's Republic". Worth a read.
(If someone has already mentioned, well, good for you.)
Just dropped back in to this, because someones' views had tallied this post into the Daily Top Twenty being looked over.
So, nearly seven long years of nothing later, howzat whole load of rose fertilizer called CalExit workin' out for ya...?
I don't know everything (nor would want to), but what I do know, I know with flawless precision, and just like Mr. Spock, my best guesses are more accurate than most people's marginally-recollected facts.
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