Tuesday, April 26, 2022

Remedial Economics For Midwits

 














This will work about as well as China dropping the dollar, which they hold over $1T of in debt, which would effectively be like setting it on fire.

People not bright enough to grasp this in 0.2 seconds, without having it explained to them in pictures, should probably stick to trying to learn how to make balloon animals.

I know: maybe explain to the class how OPEC jacking oil prices crushed the U.S. in 1973, and America never recovered from the blow. I'll wait over here while you do that.

Ditto for the financial fucktards who think the ruble is stronger, when in fact it's worth 9% less now than it was on Jan 1st this year. It's only improved from its all-time bottom value on March 7th, when it was worth only 50% of its value compared to January 1st. In short, the ruble went from being a joke currency (since ever), to being Weimarbux, and has now returned from the abyss to only being joke currency again.

Russia trying to claim the ruble was gold backed (which it isn't, and never will be)? Desperation to stave off total economic ruin. Boob bait for the bubbas. And it still cost them 9% of value in real terms. Before inflation kicked in worldwide.

Well-played, financial soopergeniuses.

13 comments:

Rhea said...

So in other words, Russia is threatening things they can't accomplish.

Just like the war they started with Ukraine, who are continuing to curb stomp Russia.

~Rhea

Zink said...

Arab oil embargo in the 70s really backfired on the Saudis. The temporary increase in prices drove innovations in efficiency and drove investment into oil exploration. When the embargo was lifted, the demand for OPEC oil was reduced.

brian said...

I don't think Russia cares.

Which is why they'll continue to throw things at Ukraine until either they run out, or the Ukrainians run out of people to defend with.

Nobody's winning.

Misfit71 said...

Much respect for you - but man - you are off the path a bit with this. See here

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/four-european-gas-buyers-fold-russian-demands-pay-gas-rubles

Aesop said...

@Misfit,
Read deeper. He's pissing off the larger companies and countries, and they're coming up with work-arounds. He's going to outsmart himself and cut his own throat.
And the entire rest of the world of OPEC gets a vote.
Those guys will step in and f**k Russia in a heartbeat.

Aesop said...

@Brian,
Russia cares, but Russia doesn't govern itself.
Putin doesn't care, and what you describe has been his plan all along. which will work until he either wins, or the system craps him out its other end, somewhat the worse for wear.
As Russia cannot win, Option B is therefore only a matter of time, and how much Russia's PTB are willing to tolerate what Putin's doing before they decide it's time to try a new guy. That's how it's gone there for a century, and he won't buck that tiger. It's going to eat him.

In Vietnam, an LTs life expectancy was measured in how long until the platoon decided his schemes were more of a threat to their lives than those of the enemy. At that point, there was a fragging. Nations work pretty much the same way, since ever.

Aesop said...

Check out the repercussions of Gazprom's attempted blackmail: it's blowing up in their face.
Like I told you it would.:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/gazprom-blackmail-backfires-as-eu-vows-to-end-energy-dependence-on-russia/ar-AAWEe7j?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1f9c8760ff944ef0b8ec7eebeb9227d2

Stap looking at just A to B, and start looking at what happens after B, all the way to Z.
Putin is playing checkers.
The rest of the world is playing chess.

Joe in PNG said...

If the corner gas station started giving me the same kind of crap, I'd start going elsewhere. Even if I had to drive twice as far and pay more, I'm going there.

Power corrupts, and not just the morals. It also corrupts the intelligence. There's a reason the concept of Hubris has been with us for pretty much all of human history.

PO'ed said...

Man, your hardon for Putin losing is unseemly. Some of us are rooting for him. The MSM Ukraine Love is turning us against them. We don't believe any bit of Russky losses.
Sorry, but that's how we feel.

McChuck said...

Where's Europe going to get their gas from?
How many tankers does it take to replace a pipeline?
Where are these tankers going to magically appear from?
And with The EU seizing Russian freighters, what moral principle should stop Russia from seizing gas tankers headed to the EU?

Good job, Germany, shutting down your coal and nuclear plants just before pissing off your supplier of LNG.

Aesop said...

1) Whoever sells it to them.
2) For how long?
3) Bereft of magic, I suspect they're going to come from companies that have them.
4) The principle that it's swell way to start a hot war with the rest of Europe. As just Ukraine seems to be kicking them hard in the balls, I don't think they want to tangle with the rest of the neighborhood at the same time, but that's just a guess, based on their enlightened self-interest.

Aesop said...

@PO'ed,

Your religious beliefs are your business.
Russian cruisers suddenly going all explodey, vast wastelands of formerly Russian tanks and APCs, dead bodies of Russian troops, and half the invasion force leaving Ukraine with their tails between their legs tells me all I need to know about how well Russia has been faring in the Ukrainian War Games of 2022.

Putin losing is the best thing that could happen to Europe. Russia being militarily hamstrung for decades would be even better. Root for whoever you like. Just own it when they're eating shit for 50 days and counting, and look more like the Zimbabwean Marching Drum and Bugle Corps than with a top-tier serious military force to be reckoned with. Based on all evidence this calendar year, if Russia attacked the Vatican, the Swiss Guards would be running the Kremlin inside a week.

Warfare has rules.
One of them is that the attacker needs a 3:1 advantage to prevail.
Russia has never had that in Ukraine.
They don't know themselves, the don't know the terrain, and they don't know the enemy.
Sun Tzu, like Darwin, will always have his due.
You could look it up:
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/17976-if-you-know-the-enemy-and-know-yourself-you-need

Joe in PNG said...

Putin has fallen to the classic hubris of tyrants- the temptation to pretend that they are also field marshals, and to fire any general who doesn't kiss their rear on a regular basis.
It also looks like he's fallen for his own hype machine- thinking he was some sort of James Bondiski field spook when he was just the guy who made sure everyone had filled in their TPS reports.