Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Preparedness: Always Needful; Long-Term Tyranny? Not So Likely

h/t Bayou Renaissance Man

I didn't feel like I had a long post in me today; just nothing the muse was itching to belt out.

And then, I saw Peter had a long post on various things up at BRM; you should RTWT. 

But regarding one of the sub-topics, i.e. a decades-long tyranny here?

Point Of Order:

Preparedness is a fine thing, but let's get serious.

Everyone who looks at "how it is" in the rest of the world when civilization goes to sh*t, overlooks to their eternal peril a vital difference:

The Rest Of The World isn't armed to the teeth with more loose small arms and ammunition at large amidst the general population than the world's next 10 largest militaries, COMBINED.


Which kind of undoes any napkin math on the topic that doesn't take that into account, whether we're talking foreign despots, or domestic wannabees.

Anyone from the nominal Top Dog on down who forgets that factor is going to die with a third eye in their forehead and one heck of a surprised look on their face.

Somebody, anybody, including FedGov, thinks they're going to "lock it all down" interminably, and institute Communist/Medieval serfdom on this nation?!?

Average Joe's toleration of "public good" screw tightening has eroded down to the wear bars on that particular tire. Ain't nobody having another helping of that, nor likely to anytime this century.

It is to laugh.

Somebody tries that anyways? Fed agent's pelts - whole body mounts, mind you, not just the horns - would be nailed to every wall from Maine to Monterey, and snitches' and collaborators' heads would decorate every fencepost in sight, from sea to shining sea.

In minutes and hours, like as not, and not in months or years.

And, given so much as a "What for?" nudge, they most assuredly will do exactly that.

This will be no seventy-year slog of waiting for the edifice to fall over of its own weight.

People in this country lack the patience (or innate subservience) for that sort of wait-it-out crap.

They're going to go out and start killing something. More specifically, someones, plural. In job lots. Google "great gross".

Carlos Hathcock had 93 confirmed kills in a jungle war, mostly in a single tour of duty of under 13 months. Chuck Mawhinney's official tally is recorded at 103, and another 216 probables in the same conflict. Simo Häyhä chalked up 542 Reds in only under a hundred days in the snow, maxxing out at 25 in one day. With a bolt-action rifle and iron sights!

Be like Simo.

Put in simple terms, if there's as little as one Simo in 30,000 in the entire U.S., the entire problem is gone - forever - in the amount of time it takes to put one Marine through boot camp. (And the waiting line to sign up for that has gone pretty quiet of late.)

There's no respawn button, they can't shake-and-bake new orcs fast enough to overcome that problem, and even the hordes pouring across the border are going to be headed the other way the minute that happens.

Pepe LePew couldn't clear out a town as fast as two-way gunfire hereabouts is going to solve the illegal alien problem. Least of all if some of it squirts in their direction.

And trying to disarm the populace triggers the exact scenario the feds are earnestly hoping to avoid.

10,000 problem children?

In WWII, under occupation by actual Nazis with SS and Gestapo given free rein, the French Resistance was less than 3% of the total population.

10,000 problem children in this country now would only be 3.333/100,000ths (0.00003333) of 1% of the US population, i.e. 10,000x easier to pull off.

"But Blutto, we're afraid! The government has nuclear weapons!"

Uh huh. And how long can those guys last in that hole if there's 100 farmers with deer rifles up top, and Wyoming, Nebraska, etc. cease to be permissive operating territory?

How long does the flight line last at Whiteman AFB when the locals start popping anyone who gets within 100 yards of a B-2 on the ramp, and you can't land a plane or get a food truck onto the base?

How long you gonna sustain subs when the crew can't return to port, and has to survive on what they can catch freehand off the deck?

Major League Stupid in this country is over in a season.

No one's going to be inclined to wait three generations, and hope their grandchildren someday breathe free oxygen again.

That rot will be burned to the ground in days to weeks.

(Take the J6 mob, this time with actual guns and torches, like a real coup would have included, and let your imagination run wild for about 0.2 seconds. We'd be short about 600 senior government members in a matter of that many necktie parties under those circumstances.)

Speculate all you want about what happens here the day after that.

But a multi-year reign of tyranny in this country is going to be like trying to paddle a canoe up the falls at Niagara.

And that's before the criminals they can barely contain with 90% public support for law and order decide to pile on, because they aren't obeying any stinking laws.

This country will not revert to Zimbabwe. Dodge City or Deadwood are far likelier.

There isn't going to be New York City law at that point, any more than there'll be Moscow or Beijing communism for more than a hot minute.

But Committees of Vigilance and hanging judges will become all the rage. And there's one whale of a lot more people than just 10,000 waiting and more than willing to give that another try.

A long emergency is a distinct possibility.

It would most likely occur after an incredibly brief and brutally violent short-term tyranny.

If anyone's not planning for that, they aren't planning for a long emergency, they're just planning for a long inconvenience.

Best wishes with that outlook.


maruadventurer said...

"Uh huh. And how long can those guys last in that hole if there's 100 farmers with deer rifles up top, and Wyoming, Nebraska, etc. cease to be permissive operating territory?"

Aesop, Probably won't even need rifles for long. A couple of these (https://www.deere.com/en/tractors/row-crop-tractors/row-crop-8-family/), bottom plough and some logging chains can have the sites buried in a day.

grnadee said...

We're going about this all wrong.
This country needs a three day general strike.
Grass roots effort.
No going to work - bug-a-boo flu.
No spending money on anything.
ERs and first Responders work only.
No shots need to be fired.
All the guns behind every blade of grass stay there.

The power of the purse.
Starve the beast in the swamp.

How about Nov.22,23,24 (black Friday)

They can't arrest you for staying home sick.
Only me for suggesting it.

maruadventurer said...

By the way, barter, is more sophisticated than most imagine -- https://freakonomics.com/2011/11/the-black-market-is-the-second-largest-economy-in-the-world/

Aesop said...

That's why cash scares hell out of Uncle.

If you start banking out of your mattress, it becomes damned hard to catch you at it when nothing changing hands is taxed.

1chota said...

and Simo did it with iron sights, no scope.
lots of really good shooters here in the old country.
I have been to lots of different kinds of matches. there are some seriously scary shots out there. some fast and furious, some methodical at extreme distance.
all of them deadly accurate.

John Wilder said...

The economy will be tough, probably for years.

Dan said...

The criminals in power are masters of manipulation. Any violence from the public will be successfully pointed at different groups so that we kill each other and not those needing killing. That happens only if the beer, pizza and sportsball stops. As long as the entertainment and distractions continue those in power are perfectly safe. The attention span of the average person these days doesn't allow them to think about anything long enough to figure anything out.

TRX said...

About half of Mr. Hayha's kills were made with a Mosin. The other half were up close and personal via a Suomi SMG.

Hayha was born before the Soviet Union was created, and passed away a decade after it bit the dust, at age 96.

Anonymous said...

For technique I recommend the memoirs of Albert Pierrepoint, the last official hangman of Great Britain( when they were). Dude really knew his job.
Boat Guy

Stealth Spaniel said...

Finally! Our side starts talking nuts and bolts of a real revolution. FedGov has no idea how angry every day deplorables are. The illegals are not saving anyone but themselves. The first hint of Gibs-me-dat realizing that there is no more free gravy and boom! Mexico will experience a tremendous population increase of every race and nationality on earth. And maybe we can finally clean house for good!!

Allen said...

I know people from finland. Simo is worshiped like a god over there even to this day.

Anonymous said...

The biggest risk isn’t the feds going 1984 with no opposition, it’s the aftermath. Vigilantes and mob violence tend to attract deranged paranoid lunatics who will inflict higher blue-on-blue casualties than the reds ever will. If the commies are smart, they’ll fan that flame into a California wildfire.

Anonymous said...

The one issue I have with this scenario is that guns, and the willingness to use them, are not evenly distributed across the country.
Big cities have far fewer of both. Not coincidentally, they have far more government agents and employees.
I can easily see the government holding onto power and control in big cities and losing the rural areas. That sets up for a war and the cities have LOTS of cannon fodder, as well as cooperation and coordination.
This is my worst case scenario... With nastiness like the meat collector from ERJs one story where"empowered" agents take anything they can for the cities and are excused any crimes in the process...

Aesop said...

@Anon 5:58,

It's typically a self-correcting problem.
Note that Robbespierre and the real-life Madame DeFarges were fed to Madame Guillotine in the end too. For cause.

It's trying to get to the democratic republic offramp instead of the Napoleonic dictator afterwards that's always the real bitch.

@Anon 6:29,

The cities, in that scenario, become the new Indian reservations.
Anyone leaves them to go on the warpath gets tamped down hard.
In short order, starvation and disease whittles the surviving population down to maybe 5% of the former numbers. Then they get re-gentrified with country folks who, like olden day settlers, bring their own firearms with them, to pacify the terrain.

maruadventurer said...

The cities do not have to be 'taken' by force. All that is required is siege in its various forms. Cut off interstate and rail access of food, water & fuels. Wait 30 days or less. Capitulation or starvation, players choice.

CT Ginger said...

Without a military command structure of some sort armed citizens are less effective than one hopes. Even the Resistance needs some sort of focus, ability to share intelligence and move purposefully. Tactics exist but strategies need to be developed. The PFCs are plentiful, the SGTs are around, LTs snd CAPTs can be developed. Senior command not so much.

Aesop said...

This explains why cattle attacked by piranha are so successful at evading them, because the piranha lack a central command structure.
It's also why swarms of killer bees rarely prevail.

Oh, wait...

But seriously.

Hand out 200,000,000 rifles and a basic load of ammo for them to common folk anywhere in the world, and then give me the odds on any government, internal or external, dictating terms to that citizenry.

Maybe Afghanistan rings a bell?

A resistance structure will be immensely helpful, but the sheer quantity of overwhelming firepower would dictate most folks opposing any tyranny would never have time to shoot before all the targets were gone.

If the population of merely licensed game hunters opposed any such thing, and took out only a bare parity of one jackboot for every hunter slain, the entire forces available to the government would be annihilated - to the last man - before half the hunters had even filled their tags.

And they are only 15M gun owners out of 100M-150M. Who outnumber government's entire potential minions, even if they armed the clerks and jerks at every level of government, by only between 16 and 25 to 1.

Those are literally the odds faced by the troopers of the U.S. 7th Cavalry at the Battle of the Little Big Horn.
Which notably did not go well for them, on the day.

With those numbers, this requires little more organizational skill than a baby Harp seal clubbing party.

"All right folks, listen up. If it moves, hit it. If it's still moving, hit it some more. Bring the pelt back. This concludes your anti-tyranny briefing."

If people bother to coordinate and plan, and the combat vets show up for the party, this is over by lunchtime Thursday of any week where it kicks off on Monday morning.

And that's before they even start going after the families of any would-be FedGoons.

When Whitey riots, he levels continents.

Old Grey Guy said...

I have been searching for a gallows in kit form or the plans and parts list to build a portable 1 or 2 person gallows. All of the parts need to be able to fit in the 8 foot bed of a pick up truck so it can be transported from city to city or county to county.
If you do not know of any, is there an engineer out there that can design one?

Greg said...

For OGG, don't need a gallows kit; although crude scaffolding is easy, just keep your driver/drill charged. I have a chunk of plywood bolted to the top step of my aluminum extension ladder with a half circle cutout for securely leaning on tree branches. Will work just as well on any lamppost or any high point you need to get your rope over.