Thursday, January 12, 2023

PSA For The Thinking Impaired

 

Swing away.












We get comments, for most of which we're grateful. But a non-zero number of which, if not outright straightforward trolls, lead us to despair the dearth of common sense and critical thinking of the average population.

Case in point:

About that whole "Russia's artillery usage is unsustainable" thing...
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/decision-arm-ourselves-or-arm-ukraine-navy-secretary-admits-crisis-us-defense-stockpiles

Ignoring the obvious question ("Since when did any appointed idiot in the Biden fustercluck become an authority on anything military, let alone factual?"), we're aware we get a bad rap on this blog from certain reasoning-challenged people, because compared to them, we come off as a never wrong know-it-all. (T'aint so.) That's because to anyone sufficiently primitive, modern technology is indistiguishable from magic, and to anyone sufficiently stupid, common sense, reasoning, and applied intelligence seems like witchcraft.

We get that just because this is the internet, this blog looks easy, because you've got keyboards too, so how hard can it really be? So maybe if we break down what we do before we reply, readers who inhabit the left edge of the bell curve could level up their game somewhat. (We live in hope.)

We're wrong on occasion, but damned seldom, because we know how to think, and because we check and double-check the relevant facts. Which do not include random quotes, but rather actual numbers of actual things.

We will break it down for the diligent. Have another look at the above comment.

Go to Durden's linked post. RTWT.

Then follow the link in our reply to that comment.

Therein we find that the annual US military budget is over 15½ times greater than that of Russia.

Think about that for a minute. The US spends, in any month, more than the entire Russian military spends in a year. Every. Single. Year. Since they stopped being Soviets, and simply became a Turd World failed nation with a nuclear arsenal.

Do some more research. Knock yourself out. Look anywhere. Google. Even Wikipedia, worth every penny you pay for it, but better than throwing messages in a bottle and waiting for a reply. Whatever.

So ask yourself a couple or three questions:

How big is the Russian military?

How big is Ukraine's military?

How big is the U.S. military?

Then ask the same questions about the military budgets of those three countries.

Call those questions 1a, 1b, and 1c, and 2a, 2b, and 2c.

Now calculate the military spending per capita for each country's military.

Call that 3a, 3b, and 3c.

Answers*:

1a: 1M active, 2M reserve

1b: 246,445 (pre-war)

1c: 1.35M active, 800k reserve

2a: $65.9B

2b: $10.4B

2c: $782B

3a: $22k@

3b: $42.2k@

3c: $363.7k@

We now arrive at the common sense portion of today's lesson:

What kind of military do you think Russia is getting, spending the ruble equivalent of $22k per troop? How do you think those troops compare to Ukraine's, at twice that level of spending, or the U.S.', at eighteen times as much?

(Masters-level students: we get it's not this simple, but it illustrates the basic point.) 

Do you think Russia is able to field and equip someone by spending 8% of what the U.S. spends for the same product?

Looking at those expenditures, are you really that surprised that Ukraine, with a huge influx of more equipment and munitions from the US and Europe since last March, is kicking the shit out of a Potemkin army that runs on vodka, lies, and graft, and hasn't won (nor even fought) a serious conflict with anything close to a peer in over 75 years? Srsly?

Have you seen videos of modern US recruits barefoot, unfed, with rusted over weapons, or no weapons? Where are the YouTube videos of recruits at the rifle range yelling "bang!" because they don't have any bullets, or even rifles? With Russia, that's the last six months.

So, what do you think happens to Russian military adventures, when motivated but poor Ukrainian troops, who hate Russian invaders with a passion, are given a sudden shitton of the best weapons America can produce?

And finally, given their respective budgets, which military do you figure is more likely to run out of ammunition first: that of the U.S., or Russia? Show your work.

With that in mind, and recent articles showcased on CDR Salamander's website at the front of our mind, we suggest Navel (not a typo) Secretary Shitforbrains would be better off spending less time talking out his bilge outflow, and more time supervising rust and paint details, so that half the US Rustbucket Navy isn't decertified for combat operations because it's rusted to the pier.

USS Zumwalt Rustbucket










And people who think the substantial but relative pittance of military largesse we've showered onto Ukraine's military this year is going to leave the US military defenseless, probably need to learn to count without taking off their shoes before they swallow the kind of codswallop that Shitforbrains is pimping.

Is the US military short of ammunition in its war stockpiles, and for annual training?

Fuck YES!!! And has been for over 50 years, since even before Jimmy Carter's regrettable presidency, and counting, because congressweasels keep buying boondoggle pieces of shit like the F-35 Thunderjug, Little Crappy Ships, and carriers like the USS Edsel, while underallocating funds requested for things like maintenance, training, training, training, training, and war reserve stocks, while fully funding Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, gender reassignment surgery for confused mental defectives, and staffing the TO and E of the 69th Intersectional Dildo Brigade of LGBTEIEIO Transdykefaggotry Force, in preference to paying for fighters, bombers, destroyers, submarines, armor, artillery, and by-God combat troops, let alone the munitions they need to train and fight wars. That problem didn't start last February, it's been an open scandal for decades.

Ukraine's contribution to actual ammunition shortages is so small as to be negigible by comparison, and anybody with 5 minutes' actual time in military service knew that without being told any of this. Which is why the never-served contingent of Internet featherheads are so baffled by that obvious truth. They have no idea how much they don't know about how much they don't know.

And they're too f**king lazy to waste five or ten mouseclicks self-educating, when they could be obliviously bloviating far beyond their IQ or experience.

Which is why, with them, you get what you get, and get dumber the more of it you read.

Suture self.

And ponder that every cabinet secretary since Benjamin Franklin was postmaster has complained that his trough needed more government funding to do its job, and that maybe they're talking out of their ass for mercenary, rather than factual, reasons, before throwing their quotes and any extrapolations based thereon at us as if they were actual information, or contained any relevancy to any topic under discussion.

A quick follow-up would be to ask anyone quoting them to name every competent person appointed by the current administration to any position of trust and responsibility.

We'll be right here while you work those two things out.





*[We used Wikipedia for illustration, purely for speed/simplicity. You could have tried any number of other sources, if only for comparison. Whatever else the Agency f**ks up, the CIA's annual World Factbook online is a five-star excellent and reliable resource. So is anything published by Jane's. Ditto SIPRI (for facts, not politics). And many others. The answers will thus be slightly different, but like bullets, will fall in a grouping on the target not drastically far from each other if you don't choose bullsh*t references from the outset. Like some whackjob's axe-to-grind website, where they pull information out of their underpants and pass it off as facts. Now guess why some people who do that are accused, rightfully and precisely, of eating other people's sh*t. Don't be That Guy.]

38 comments:

Joe in PNG said...

And how much of the Russian defensive budget got skimmed as it made its way down the chain to the poor Ivan getting used as 'meat for the cannon'.

For people who say they are Super Pro-Russia, the Putards don't really seem to care too much about the Russians.

Nautigal said...

You’re hyper stretching - in a major way RR. Srsly.
But it still gets me hawt. Please don’t stop.

John Wilder said...

As long as the United States has the information assets and information advantage (as well as technical edge) they are (in major combat operations) without equal. We have waste, fraud, and abuse too, but the Russian system is built on waste, fraud, and abuse, with whatever is left over going to their troops.

Michael said...

Aesop if massive money spent and sheer numbers wearing a uniform made your Empire invincible...

How did the British empire lose to the little rebellion in the colonies?

Or in more modern times how could a leaderless bunch of arguing souls do that little rebellion a second time with any sort of chance for success?

I'm waiting right here enjoying a cup of tea.

Aesop said...

Michael,

Thanks to living up to all my expectations.

Dissecting your fallacies one by one:

1) Massive money spent and sheer numbers wearing a uniform do not make any Empire invinvible.
Of course, you knew that was true before you posited that false dichotomy, and built a straw man out of it, attempting to put words in our mouth never said, and making arguments we never made. -50 pts from Slytherin, and a stern warning to stop gargling other people's diaper spackle.

2) The British empire lost to the little rebellion in the colonies because they were suddenly facing that plus the active war with the BIG empire right across the English Channel, which literally spent itself into revolution to stick its finger into England's eye. Most people grasp that by about the 4th grade. -50 points more from Slytherin, and a stern charge that you track whoever allegedly taught you world history, and punch them in the dick for dereliction of duty.

3) A leaderless bunch of arguing souls won't do that rebellion a second time with any sort of chance for success, if they were facing anything like Vader's Imperial legions. Fortunately, there's no such empire to face, just another leaderless bunch of grifting and grafting assholes spring-loaded to communism and totalitarianism, with little appreciation for how to run a corner market, let alone a draconian empire.
Against that bunch of posturing despotic shitheads, the Poughkeepsie Boy Scouts worst troop stands a better than even chance. If we note that the actuial opposition is people with more guns and ammunition that the entire armies of the twenty largest militaries on the planet, the contest becomes even more interesting to contemplate, if and when shooting breaks out in earnest, in both directions. -20 points from Slytherin, and a suggestion that when you find you history malpractitioner, you look up your mathematics instructor, and give them a crotch kick or two as well.

Try not to choke on the tea. Most of those this side of the pond stopped drinking that swill right after our predecessors threw that shit into Boston Harbor, while dressed up as Indians from the Shmohawk tribe.

And not for nothing, but pointing out that motivated little forces can and frequently do defeat larger lackadaisical ones doesn't bode well for the chances of Ivan's drunken conscripts, does it? HONK.

Glen Filthie said...

Don’t hog all the tea, Michael!

I have two questions for you too, General!

How do you intend to PAY for all that spending?

And - is Russia at war with America or the Kraine? Hate to tell ya this… but your side lost.

Think ya gonna need a bigger hammer to get the egg off your face. Be glad to help ya with that…πŸ˜‚πŸ‘

Aesop said...

1) I don't intend to pay for any more than my allotted share.
The question your were ineptly - as usual - trying to ask, but tripped over your shoelaces trying to untangle your tongue to express, is "How does the U.S. intend to pay for all that spending?"

If you follow the obvious historical parallels, the US will likely continue to spend imaginary fiatbux, for this, and countless other things, until they cannot do that. Like France circa the 1780s, that "cannot do" date is inevitable.

Sadly for your beloved Vladster, that day will matter to the failed Russian state no more than the collapse of the French monarchy mattered to Britain's designs on their lost colonies, and better than even odds Vlad ends his career like Stalin, having a convenient "stroke" when his minions decide they've suffered him enough, and the next despot pushes his way to the top of the heap.
Long after Ukraine has pushed Russia's attempted gang rape away, for good, and in all probability, after it regains everything Vlad stole since 2014, and rebuilds with seized Russian assets impounded by the rest of the world. After countless "big guys" in multiple countries take their 10%, of course.

2) Neither. (And your false dichotomies are even more ham-fisted than Michael's, as befits a proper Sith Lord and your padawan minion.) In reality, Russia is at war with the entire world. Their "allies" all realize they took the fat girl to the prom, and are standing against the wall, pretending they were just a car pool ride, not a date.
China is hoping to get some consolation date-rape sex when Russia is coming home for the night, and nobody will dance with it anymore, so China helpfully relieves itself by taking the only thing of value Russia has left, which in the real world rather than the mataphorical one is liable to be a large hunk of Siberian real estate.

I think you're gonna need help, and a bigger crowbar to get your head outta your tailpipe, as usual, but you got it there, so as far as I'm concerned, you can get it back out on your own too. The struggle and pain is going to be glorious to watch when you finally decide to commit to admitting what's been obvious to most of the world for months, but I guess it takes a while for the huskies to mush the news all the way up there, and then have someone read it to you loud enough to hear inside such a dark...predicament.

Maybe help yourself before you go volunteering your services to anyone else. ;)

Aesop said...

You thought no one would notice your clumsy dodge, but it didn't work.
The questions both of you soopergeniuses ducked remain:

1) Which country, given their respective military budgets, is most liable to run out of armaments to send to Ukraine first? Show your work.

2) Name every competent person appointed to a position of trust and responsibility by the current administration.

Now we'll wait for all the Anonymous Armchair Field Marshals to pull their pants up and have a go...

Glen Filthie said...

1) Which country, given their respective military budgets, is most liable to run out of armaments to send to Ukraine first? Show your work.

You will. Eg. Your main battle tank costs around $9 million a pop, give or take. The Russians are building tanks to kill it at about slightly less than half that. Another example: your multibillion dollar air defence systems are white elephants. The ones you supplied to Kiev are mostly destroyed by bargain basement cruise missiles and WW2 buzz bombs.

2) Name every competent person appointed to a position of trust and responsibility by the current administration.

Trick question - there are none. Not sure of the point you’re trying to make… but that particular turd rolls straight downhill. I see your military leadership is in much the same boat: a collection of perverts, grifters, affirmative action flunkies, and overweight unfit women. How do you propose to deploy that against a real military and win?

Bonus question: you spent huge dollars in Afghanistan and lost there too. How do you propose to win against a peer level adversary? Errrrr - you’ll have to show your work on that, I’m afraid.

Aesop said...

You're welcome to your own opinions, Glen. But you don't get to have your own facts.

1) Total number of Abrams tanks destroyed by enemy forces in combat, to date, ever: Zero.
In the first Gulf War, of the 9 destroyed in combat, 7 were by friendly fire, and two were deliberate destruction by friendly forces to deny their recovery by the enemy.
There were about another dozen that were total losses after recovery in 15+ years in Iraq, none of them lost to other tanks.
Give a holler when the Russians build a tank - at any price - that can go toe to toe with an Abrams, and that doesn't lollipop its own turret 100 feet into the air the first time it's hit. It'll be a historic first.
For the time being, they're trying to do a rushed two year refurb on museum pieces probably built before you were born.
And that's the height of Russian armored technology.

2) The point of Question #2, which whizzed right over your head, was that the contention that the US was running out of ammunition for itself was an air biscuit floated by SecNav Shitforbrains, at the linked post by Tyler Durden. The point of which, obviously, is that such know-nothings aren't reliable sources for information on anything, due to lack of intelligence, job competence, or honesty. Even spotting them all those failings arguendo (you'll probably need to google that term), it's barely possible you may have heard of the idea that
"All warfare is based on deception. When strong, appear weak." to explain why he'd spout something so obviously full of shit in public.
So the entire Durden set of wing-flapping is more useless than teats on a bull.
But you go ahead on and keep milking that bull anyways. Maybe you'll make a friend.

Bonus answer: We're not deploying our own military anywhere, so none of what you said makes any difference whatsoever. You're literally spurging on yourself to hear yourself talk, by trying to shoehorn the topic into something completely irrelevant to the original discussion.
(Hint: It doesn't work.)
Javelin missiles and 155mm arty rounds, which have been shipped to Ukraine by the pallet load from most of NATO, to magnificent effect (unless you're one of Vlad's squaddies), have the same five pronouns in anyone's army when you're on the receiving end:
You're. Blown. The. Fuck. Up.
If you'd ever played soldier with anything but green plastic army men, you'd have known all that without me telling you.

Russia has spent 46 weeks showing the entire planet what military lightweights they've become after 75 years of no experience, and you have a sad over that.
Bummer, dude. Hug your teddy bear.

If Russia killing off 10% of it's military to date, then burning through another quarter million scraped up conscripts, and now apparently going for 20% or 25% combat casualties to their own side, is what you consider a "win", you might want to put a dictionary on your wish list.
Just saying.

The front lines have been moving inexorably east and south, for months. Vlad thought this was going to be a three-day romp (much like Gilligan and the Skipper were expecting a three hour tour). But as Vlad and his hapless bunch of fuck-ups have found out (and you've yet to twig to), the enemy gets a vote. Vlad may have no choice but to ride that pig right into the ground, but you have a choice: wise up, and get off before impact. All that happens after this is more people on both sides dying to no good end, and the team you've rooted for is a bust.

Which only makes the world less dangerous, unless you're a food taster in the Kremlin.

RSR said...

FWIW, France hugely supported the colonies during the Revolutionary war, to an extent greater than US w/ Ukraine since France was at war with Britain.

Dan said...

How much of the money we appropriate for the military actually goes to the military and how much gets laundered back into the pockets of corrupt politicians and businessman. The same question could be asked about Russia's military. I suspect the opportunities for theft are far greater in the American system. And have been deeply entrenched for much longer.

Anonymous said...

I'm guessing you've got one of those blue and yellow flags flying high.
Don't care either way.
I do wonder why we can't defend our own borders. We've got tons of money to defend Ukraine's border but it's a budget issue for ours. Hmm...

Glen Filthie said...

Let us have some honesty and perspective: The Abrams has never been on the same battlefield as the T90s or T14 Armata’s. They carry more ammo, their firing cycle is faster, they’re lighter and both have better engines. And fighting poorly trained Iraqis and goat herds is a far cry from facing blooded, battle hardened Russians. But FAFO, as the Ukes did. They were armed with your best gizmos too. Oh - and you forgot to show your work on your sooper advanced air defence systems. Oh -but you can’t can you? The Russians knocked the power out and you have no lights! At least, in the capital city of Kiev….πŸ˜‚ I’ll let that pass.

As per no. 2… the military back channels are lit right up claiming otherwise. They’d say so publicly, except that if they go off script they will be punished. General Milley found this out when he faced the joint chiefs and dared to say the Kraine was at the end of its tether. He also felt the need to leak that little admission to the NYT. Two days later, looking like he’d been badly spanked… he was right on script again and recanted everything he said to the NYT. Sorry, no marks on that one.

Hey - sob - you take that back!!! Leave GI Joe outta this! Yo mamma!!! I’m just wondering if your ADS is troubling you? Perhaps you missed that little Ukrainian goblin begging money and cash in a war you said would be won months ago? Soledar just fell along with half a dozen small towns. The Russians killed 600 Ukes in the last two days. General Zaluzhny is begging to withdraw his remaining troops before he loses them.

I know you have the mouth for this Aesop… but do you have any money? Care to put it where your mouth is…? 😁



JimR said...

1) Total number of Abrams tanks destroyed by enemy forces in combat, to date, ever: Zero

refresh my memory on how many Abrahms that the Ukraine has in service?

yeah, that's what I thought.

Sentenza said...

I daresay that the Russians take too much credit for their victory in the Great Patriotic War. Even when the Germans were starving on the front with frozen weapons, the Russians still couldn't beat them.

When they started winning victories on the Eastern Front, they mostly either drove Allied tanks or Russian tanks made with Allied raw materials. They ate allied food, they may have worn allied boots, and they probably relied on American (or Russian made American) trucks to carry it all.

Anonymous said...

I know we are about to break the Russians any day now. My only question is to what end?

Jonathan H said...

As mentioned above, while the US is sending lots of ammo to Europe, in most areas it is a drop in the bucket of US supplies.
The only shortages I have seen specified are in a couple of niche and older systems that are close to being replaced; the big example is the Stinger (FIM-92) which hasn't been made for many years because a. the US doesn't use many (they expect to have air superiority) and b. a replacement is well along the acquisition pipeline - don't forget it was developed in the 1970's.

If the US was making critically large deliveries of munitions to Ukraine, we'd see articles about huge volumes similar to this delivery to Germany in 2016 that made headlines for sheer size: https://www.military.com/daily-news/2016/11/08/pentagon-sends-huge-ammo-shipment-forces-europe.html (just one of many similar articles on the special shipment from across the political spectrum).

Yes, the US does have fewer rounds on hand than it did during the Cold War, but it still has LOTS of munitions available if needed...

Aesop said...

@JimR,
Bringing the Abrams MBT into a discussion from which it was happily irrelevant was Filthie's wild goose chase. He does that when he can't argue the point under discussion, so I humor him.

@Anon 9:28,
I have no idea when Russia will break, but that's where I'd lean. I suspect this quixotic idiocy will be Putin's undoing eventually, but their system has been Byzantine for a millennia, so it's an open question, and answers point in all directions.
To what end?
They won't be going adventuring for another generation or so, which leaves Finland, Sweden, Germany, Poland, the Baltic States, and the rest of Eastern Europe breathing easier for the next 20-50 years.
That limits Russia's other overseas silliness as well, which will have the Kurds cheering in Syria.
It also destabilizes the whole polyglot conglomeration of their own non-Russian -stans, which leads to the likelihood of a further breakup down the road by the less friendly ones (Georgia, Chechnya, etc.).
Russia's biggest problem isn't Ukraine, the U.S., or even their internal difficulties, it's China. They look weak now, there's Russian blood in the water, and Xi isn't a fool. They'll bide their time, and when the time is ripe, they'll make Russia an offer they can't refuse.

China and Russia have gone to war half a dozen times since 1900, with casualties in the tens of thousands unreported and beyond counting. Russia has a dread of yellow hordes going back to Genghis Khan. Which is also why they won't be pulling their frontline forces to ancillary adventures in Ukraine; they dare not pull them from the Chinese border, and they won't.

But if they do, it'll be ringing the dinner bell for shark week.

That happens, it's liable to be the end game for the whole world.

Aesop said...

Glen,
The only battle-hardened Russians in evidence are currently welded lumps of charcoal on both sides of the Dnieper, fused within their T-whatevers in rusted heaps all over Ukraine. They haven't won an armored victory anywhere since 1945, and YouTube is replete with repeated depictions of their current level of incompetence.

Knocking out power stations that don't move very fast is currently all Russia can accomplish, and it hasn't gotten them any traction at the front lines. Just like bombing Britain, Germany, and Japan hardened national resolve, rather than weakening it. Cock-a-doodling about that is fine, but it's just another failed tactic, in a Russian military adventure replete with failed tactics, beginning with invading in the first place.

Your access to the military back channels is about as perspicacious as your analysis of the Ukrainian front lines. You've declared the war over - what? Ten, twenty, thirty, forty times since April? I mean, just make it a weekly "Russia Won!"post, and by the law of averages, if you live to 200, you might get that right once. So far, you're only 0 for Ever, but hope springs eternal. Keep swinging at that piΓ±ata, I'm sure you'll get lucky someday. With Lotto odds.

And as usual, you try to make things up to wiggle your way out of this.
I never claimed this war would be "won", let alone months ago.
I told you Russia couldn't win. Huuuuuge difference.
They can't. They haven't. And they won't, ever.
No matter how many times you make delusional claims that they've "already won". The obvious retort to that is, "Then Why The F*** are they still fighting there?" You can't answer that, or even acknowledge it, because then your whole house-of-cards fantasy crumples in flames.

The issue under discussion was whether the US was depleting its own stocks of armaments to the point of harming its own defense, as as you've already noted, the person alleging such nonsense is not a reliable source for such information. As you've clearly got nothing authoritative to add to that topic, you should probably go back to waving the "VLAD!" flag out of reflex, and call it a day.

Aesop said...

@Anon 02:31,
You'd be wrong about the flag flying. I expected Russia would prevail, in about 72 hours, without any hope that would be the case. But they're clearly not as competent as anyone imagined them to be.

As to our own borders, it isn't that we can't secure them.
It's that TPTB don't want them secured.
Period. Full stop.
That's the entire reason there's a problem.

You got a way to fix that, give a holler. I got my ten miles closed for good, and I haven't been secretive about what worked. If 100 other groups do what me and the guys I worked with did, we're done.
But "Letting George do it" isn't going to work, especially if you think the .gov is going to do anything without people literally lighting a fire under their @$$#$.
It's DIY, or go home.

C said...

"In reality, Russia is at war with the entire world. Their "allies" all realize they took the fat girl to the prom, and are standing against the wall, pretending they were just a car pool ride, not a date.
China is hoping to get some consolation date-rape sex when Russia is coming home for the night, and nobody will dance with it anymore, so China helpfully relieves itself by taking the only thing of value Russia has left, which in the real world rather than the metaphorical one is liable to be a large hunk of Siberian real estate."

This was both accurate and hilarious.

Don't know if it's true. Heard that battle hardened and competent doesn't exist in the Russian army. The moment you become either you're put to pasture. Can't have the risk of a coup by armed battle hardened vets.

Glen Filthie said...

Ummmmmm. Aesop, your country spent BILLIONS on the Patriot missile program alone. If you can’t defend your power stations, you can’t defend your rail yards, your ammo dumps and warehouses, your barracks or your manufacturing. Tactically speaking…being able to strike your opponent with heavy explosives anytime, anywhere? That’s a big deal. Germany lost air superiority over its turf and then lost the war. Look at the role of air power in the war with Japan.

I declared the war over the second it started. Unless America and NATO intercede, the Kraine has no chance and never did. If you recall, Germany actually lost WW2 in 1943 - after that it was all wasted lives and needless death. The Japanese lost the war in one day at Midway.

And - of course the Russians have won. The objectives have been met:

-Russia will no longer be supplying Europe with cheap energy with unfavourable pricing
-nor will it have to compete with the Kraine’s cheating and thieving with unfair and illegal breaches of trade agreements
-the Ukrainian military is largely destroyed and the remnants will be gone soon
-the Azov battalions and Banderas nazis are either dead, captured or in flight

Icing on the cake:
-the Russians own the Donbas
-they are forging powerful new agreements and alliances with China, India and Saudi Arabia
-Europe and America are sliding into economic ruin.

Call me names, strut and boast - at the end of the day, you’re paying 20 bucks for a dozen eggs and a pound of bacon, and five or six bucks for a gallon of gas. Like your economy, your military is crumbling: you can no longer recruit, or retain your most experienced people. Your military industrial complex and supply chains are compromised by grifters and carpet baggers that start in the swamp and end with your president. Like it or not, Russia has the moral high ground in the Kraine… and yes, you ARE running out of ammo…figuratively and literally.

I’ll leave you with the last word. Call it professional courtesy.πŸ˜‰

Jonathan H said...

W T90 is an upgraded T-72, and the T-14 (all 5 of them that exist, most of which are broken down) is another step along that line.
You need to do more research: for example, Russian tanks load SLOWER than American ones, and their 2 part rounds limit armor penetration compared to US 1 part rounds.
Their armor is FAR worse.
You are correct that they are faster, but the difference is less than 5mph - and the Abrams can hit at long distances at full speed; Russian tanks have to slow down substantially IF their black boxes all work; if any of the boxes are down, they have stop completely.
You also didn't mention that the tend to blow up when hit, unlike the Abrams.

Joe in PNG said...

Some people forget that the bad consequences of political actions often take years to manifest, even decades. Kinda like termites or water leaks in a house.

The things that started the fall of the Tsar happened in 1904/5- losing the Russo-Japanese War, Bloody Sunday, ect.
But his government didn't fall until 1917.

As this continues, Russia hurts itself more for the long term, and its irreversible damage. The young men ground up as cannon fodder aren't getting replaced anytime soon.

Aesop said...

"Ummmmmm. Aesop, your country spent BILLIONS on the Patriot missile program alone."
Which has fuck-all to do with anything, including the price of tea in China.
"If you can’t defend your power stations, you can’t defend your rail yards, your ammo dumps and warehouses, your barracks or your manufacturing."
As Russia is finding out with HIMARS hitting all over Russia lately.
"Tactically speaking…being able to strike your opponent with heavy explosives anytime, anywhere? That’s a big deal."
Dropping 50kg of explosives from 1 out of any 4 or 5 attempts with hand-me-down Iranian drones? Not so much.
"Germany lost air superiority over its turf and then lost the war. Look at the role of air power in the war with Japan."
Germany fought to the last yard of dirt outside Hitler's bunker, despite enemy air superiority. Japan was about to fight to the last child with sharpened bamboo, despite us blowing most of the countryside to hell. The only air power that made any difference in either theater of conflict was a couple of B-29 missions in August 1945. That's how little difference air power made.
And BTW, while you're off the topic and onto this one - WHERE THE HELL IS THE RUSSIAN AIR FORCE? They're on milk cartons from Kiev to Kharkiv to Odessa. You could count Russian strike sorties over Ukraine since about Day Seven on your thumbs. They've disappeared faster than Fauci. Houdini could take lessons from that kind of disappearing act.


"I declared the war over the second it started. Unless America and NATO intercede, the Kraine has no chance and never did. If you recall, Germany actually lost WW2 in 1943 - after that it was all wasted lives and needless death. The Japanese lost the war in one day at Midway."
Uh huh. And Russia lost this war last February 26th. Tell the class which way the front lines moved in your two examples, and which way they've been moving in Ukraine since August. Parallels don't work if you have to stand them on their head.

"-Russia will no longer be supplying Europe with cheap energy with unfavourable pricing" Well, if cutting off your own nose to spite your face is "winning"...
"-nor will it have to compete with the Kraine’s cheating and thieving with unfair and illegal breaches of trade agreements" You're right, there. Russia no longer has to worry about competing with anyone's trade agreements, since they won't be trading with the rest of the world for decades to come. Well-played own goal right there.
"-the Ukrainian military is largely destroyed and the remnants will be gone soon"Ukraine's military is three to four times larger now than it was last January, and with military equipment that exceeds anything Russia will produce for decades.
"-the Azov battalions and Banderas nazis are either dead, captured or in flight"And so is most of the Wagner Group, the only group of Russian fighters who've proven able to walk and chew gum at the same time. Ukraine can trade pawns for castles all day long.
(cont.)

Aesop said...

"Icing on the cake:
-the Russians own the Donbas
"
Newsflash: Russia controlled the Donbas in 2014. Now they're paying 2000 casualties a week to lose it, kilometer by kilometer. Genius move there.
"-they are forging powerful new agreements and alliances with China, India and Saudi Arabia"
China is allied with China. They'll stab Russia in the back the minute the opportune moment arises. Inida is taking advantage of Russian desperation and fire sale prices. And Saudi Arabia has millions of Muslims in the -stans to free from the Russian infidel Satan, and access to Russia is like giving them flying lessons in Moscow.
"-Europe and America are sliding into economic ruin."
As they've been doing for 90 years, and will continue to do, with Ukraine having nothing great to add to that slide. And when they slip under for the last time, they'll be standing on Russia's head.

"Call me names, strut and boast -"
I've seen excerpts from your blog; I defer to your acknowledged expertise in that venue
"at the end of the day, you’re paying 20 bucks for a dozen eggs and a pound of bacon, and five or six bucks for a gallon of gas. Like your economy, your military is crumbling: you can no longer recruit, or retain your most experienced people. Your military industrial complex and supply chains are compromised by grifters and carpet baggers that start in the swamp and end with your president."
None of which has f**k-all to do with Ukraine, or the topic under discussion. So you're just flailing and vamping.
"Like it or not, Russia has the moral high ground in the Kraine…"
Like it or not, Russia is started a war of aggression for territorial conquest against a sovereign nation they swore to respect and protect, and they're going to be pariahs worldwide for that for a century or more. Even ordinary Russians know the pretexts for this were total bullshit, and Vlad will be lucky to survive.
"and yes, you ARE running out of ammo…figuratively and literally."
So at the end of all that, all you've got is simple naked gainsaying, and nothing authoritative to show for it but "sez the Great and Powerful Filthie"? Color me shocked! Shocked, I say. Next thing you know, you'll try pretend courtesy.

"I’ll leave you with the last word. Call it professional courtesy."

Glen Filthie said...

I’ll say one last thing, if I may: thanks for having me on!

Does the door still hit the slow stubfarts on the ass on the way out?

Apropos of nothing at all, the WaPo is saying the Ukes are planning a withdrawal from Bakmeht.

Cheers!

πŸ˜†πŸ‘

Michael said...

Do you think maybe the Germans are having a slow walk to "Support Ukraine"?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/repaired-german-leopard-tanks-for-ukraine-ready-in-2024-at-earliest-armsmaker-says/ar-AA16mBHO?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=28c2fb772c614e3a9d1571f0433261a1

I suggest you research Thucydides Trap.

Now go on your Russia, Russia, Russia ranting again, don't forget some homosexual slurs while you're at it.

Aesop said...

The problem has never been Russia.

The problem has always been Putin.

Suggest you research De Tar Baby trap.

Now go on with your Russia! Russia! Russia! cheerleading again.
As for homosexual slurs, you've got your blog wires crossed, and confused this place with your organ grinder's instrument.

Joe in PNG said...

Why is it that the Putin simps cannot ever bring themselves to post an actual objective point about Russia? Or even post about Russia without going on a long and badly written ramble about WEFGlobalhomoBidenVaxxcines?
The slobbering fanboi boosterism is amusing now that we are approaching the anniversary of 'Two Weeks to Flatten Kiev'.

Tucanae Services said...

What freaks me out more than anything is in many ways we are repeating the Nazis mistake of WWII -- Wonder weapons for the win. Good equipment with excellent training will always will out over some AI cyborg, or at least it will for the foreseeable future. So my concern is though we spend 15x more than anyone else we probably only have effective spend of 4x more than anyone else. The other 9x we are just fooling ourselves.

TRX said...

Hey! I remember that picture!

It was from one of the Michael O'Brien's "Ask Mr. Protocol" columns that ran across various Unix and sysadmin magazines in the '80s and '90s.

Aesop said...

It's older than that: It's "The Village Idiot" card/pic from some old RPG.

Anonymous said...

My only question is:

What does victory for Ukraine look like?

All Russians out of former Ukrainian territory, including Crimea? Out of Ukraine but not Crimea? Putin out of power?

The ambiguity of the the war aims and goals keeps me nervous with “what if?” thoughts.

D2

Aesop said...

There will be no victors in this war, only losers.

The best Russia can hope for is to staunch the bleeding ASAP, by GTFO.
Anything else comes in behind that, and they'll be a world pariah for another century even if they do that. Putin has undone 30 years' progress in joining the world community in less than a year.

Ukraine has had its cities and people decimated, and it will take decades to rebuild what was lost. Even if/when they regain all lost territories, including Crimea, they'll now have to maintain a costly and vigorous defense against Russia for centuries.

If Russia were to finally bombshell like the former Yugoslavia, into a dozen humbled but free and autonomous states, that would be a close second place, and better for the world.

Anonymous said...

And the Americans just got artillery supplies from Israel and South Korea. Because we have such huge stocks on hand and such gargantuan production facilities that they just wanted to piggy back on our victory.

Steve Rogers said...

And Russia is buying ammo from Syria and the Norks.

I can do this all day.