Saturday, October 16, 2021

MOAR! HARDER!

 















It is obvious that "Fucktards gonna fucktard". But some people are abusing the privilege.

FFS, just stop, man.

Somebody, please, get Sumdunce some Depends, and tackle him before he gets to the keyboard again, and fills up both pantlegs to overflowing, including his shoes and socks.

A few wee points: 

1) There are not "hundreds" of container ships off Long Beach/L.A. The number of ships is under one hundred. Closer to half that, in fact, which is down by nearly 20% since a month ago. So it's getting better, not "worse". You could look it up. Re: the actual backlog: Dozens? Sure. "Hundreds?" Take off your shoes and learn to count, meathead.

2) Per comments over at Bayou Renaissance Man's blog in response to the original recockulous article, the actual statute permits all trucks made since 2010, not those "only in the last 3 years", to pick up cargo at the ports. Semi trucks made since 2010? By SWAG, that would be about 90+% of them, nationwide.

3) From a brilliant comment to my earlier post, the capacity to unload ships is normally about 12,500 40' containers (25,000 TEUs) per day in the ports of LA/LB. By going to three shifts, they could up that to somewhere near double that amount. If nothing breaks. If they have three times the manpower. Overnight. But there are apparently something like 500,000 containers to unload.

That's a 20-day backlog.

During which time, an additional 20 days' worth of new container ships already en route will show up, and line up for their turn. And this is the busy shipping season.

So this isn't going away by waving anyone's magic wand.

4) There are also queues of container ships outside Savannah GA as well. Last I looked, Georgia has no such emission mandates on drayage vehicles as Califrutopia does. So obviously, claiming that farcical explanation as "the root cause" of the backlog is, as previously noted, patent bullsh*t. Clever folks would have called that info tidbit a "clue".

5) Orders to China, hence goods coming here from there, are up over 25% compared to last year pre-pandemic. In no small part due to people not having jobs most of last year, nor the ability to buy a lot of things, until things started easing off this year. But even pre-pandemic, the capacity to handle cargo increases was only about 5%. There is simply no elasticity built into the entire jackassical "just-in-time" system. This is that, all that, and only that.

6) The shortage is truck drivers, not trucks. Anyone who hasn't heard about new federal regs making it hard to impossible to make a decent living for truck owner-operators nationwide hasn't been listening, and has their head securely up their own @$$. And any of those drivers close enough to retirement has long since sold their rig, and said "Let's go, Brandon!" to the whole trucking industry.

7) 500,000 containers, a 20-day supply if the ports unload 24/7, means we'd need 25% of the entire 2M truck US semi-truck industry to come to Califrutopia in a conga line to get it all. Sh'yeah, right; when monkeys fly outta my butt. Even if we whittle it down to only 25K/day, which is what the port might be able to unload now with 24/7 operations, at 70' long from front bumper to rear of the 53' trailer, that's a conga line of trucks 330+ miles long, reaching from L.A./Long Beach Harbor nearly all the way to Phoenix AZ, Kingman AZ, or St. George UT, bumper-to-bumper, with 0 inches in between each rig. Under normal conditions, the three main roads heading east from SoCal (I-10, I-15, and I-40) would be jam-packed in their entirety for hundreds of miles. And at 55MPH, it would take them a full 12 hr. trucking day to make one such round trip, apiece, and they'd have to keep it up every day, no holidays or weekends off, from now until the end of the first week in November, just to clear the backlog waiting offshore right now.























This has fuck-all to do with "green compliant" trucks, or any imaginary lack thereof, regardless of how recockulously stupid and asinine any of Sacramento's fairytale green mandates are. And make no mistake, they are exactly that. But continuing to pimp the demonstrably false narrative that those laws are "the root of the problem" is more asinine than the laws themselves are. It bespeaks someone both too ignorant to change their mind, and too obstinate to change the topic.

But the problem which really is causing this, is that we don't have enough trucks, nor any other logistical capacity, at any point in the entire supply chain, to move that kind of backlog, ever, period.

Hiring more dockworkers or crane operators won't make cargo unload any faster than hiring more mechanics and drivers makes cars go faster at the Indy 500. A 500 mile race at 200MPH takes 2½ hours, because of physics timespace. Period. Just like there are only so many berths, and so many cranes, and only so many containers that can be plucked off ships per hour. If you want to lay out a plan to terraform the harbor to increase throughput capacity, the time to do that was 20 years ago. 

Kind of like Califrutopia's power grid, highways, and water supplies. Three terms in total of Jerry Brown as governor here was the functional equivalent of 7 major earthquakes, 10 riots, and 200 brushfires inside the city limits, in terms of damage to the state. We'll be paying for that serial disaster even decades after I'm cold and dead.

Even putting the cargo on trains presents the exact same logistical burden.

That's 60 complete fully-loaded double-stacked freight trains/day headed out of Los Angeles, in perpetuity, each one 100 freight cars long, stretching over a mile long, each.

Our leaned-to-fumes logistics system is not designed, nor capable, of going from "Park" to 125MPH overnight, and staying there indefinitely.

That's why there's a backlog of unloaded containers in the Ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Savannah, and will continue to be for some weeks to months.

So certain jackasses should stop trying to pin this on a truck mandate with negligible, if any, effect on the entire system, or the problem, no matter how silly and butthurt they're liable to be for admitting they biffed this, repeatedly.

The very idea is simply full of more shit than a Christmas goose.

Anyone who doubles down on something that's clearly beyond their ken is just an object lesson in why one should not wear white pants to a dinner party where chili is being served, whether we're talking about problems of spillage in the front, or leakage in the rear.

They should leave the party, change their trousers, put the keyboard down, and they need to crack a friggin' book.










18 comments:

1chota said...

the PTB are pushing the BS. It suits their agenda.

T said...

Some one sent me this: https://news.yahoo.com/lazy-crane-operators-making-250-200100567.html

If it is true, then I promise you that I could show up in a couple of weeks with about 100 experienced crane operators(including myself) more than willing to work 12-15 hr shifts. Crane operators in the GoM don't make anywhere close to $250,000 per yr, and when told to step up their game, they will.

Might need 1st Battalion of the 75th Ranger Regiment along with me to convince the unions to GTFO though....

Aesop said...

@T,

Go over to Peter's BRM blog, where I already laid out the wages for ILWU workers.
https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2021/10/the-green-new-deal-turns-out-to-be-at.html?showComment=1634363420373#c2981021904082433379

And yes, they make $190K/yr and up.

It's easier to get into the mafia, or play for the Dodgers, than to get into the longshoremen's locals.

https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2021/10/the-green-new-deal-turns-out-to-be-at.html?showComment=1634390540173#c8630020999484211621

Ruth said...

I think the "100’s of ships" is people reading the total numbers of ships waiting to unload at all ports and thinking its just Cali. But then people are stupid so who knows.

I had a customer last week tell me that "they could get all those ship unloaded if they wanted, they're trying to force shortages as an excuse to raise prices". I managed to not tell him what I thought of him….

I will say, as a Big Box Store employee: people really did NOT stop buying last year. Its just that WHAT they were buying changed pattern completely. Combined with the .GOV forced closures (cause you might get sick!). And the already growing trend to prefer online shopping that only grew when people became terrified of getting sick. And yah, stores closed left and right. At the same time my employer has had record breaking sales figures for the last year and a half.

a posse ad esse said...

So one minor quibble... I work in the trucking industry and the current issue with "green compliance" is the DEF/DPF units, NOx sensors, California's mandatory smog checks (and the expiration of nox exemptions that are slated for 2023, I think it is). The chip shortage makes finding parts to repair NOx sensors and the sensors for these DPF units problematic, which in turn means trucks with failed sensors won't pass the smog check and won't allowed to be on the road (in California especially). Here in Alaska, some truckers are "deleting" these parts because they aren't necessary to run the truck and are only to required to comply with environmental regulations, but we don't do smog checks here so it's unlikely they'll get busted.
California is hardly going to relent on the smog checks, so until the chip shortage is resolved, fewer and fewer trucks will be legally allowed to operate there to transport goods off these ships. As for new trucks, there is a substantial delay in building them also due to supply chain issues, so there will be no filling in the gaps with new rigs any time soon. March at the earliest but rumor has it that it'll more likely be 2023 before new ones are really available.

RandyGC said...

Aesop,

I've seen some reports that California's anti-gig economy laws also affect Owner/Operators of big rigs, exacerbating (not causing on it's own) the issue.

I don't have a feel for just how many owner/operators there are out there percentage wise versus corporate drivers, so not sure, even if the laws were that stupid, how much impact they would have.

Any input on that?

FredLewers said...

Our circumstances are the result of decisions. Some made by is and some decided by other people. 'Just in time' doesn't work for long term healthy growth. It only works for a 'short sighted, harvest it all now' mindset.
If 'just in time' was a viable strategy nobody would have invented savings accounts.
Delayed gratification = putting some back for a rainy day or building a buffer.
Just in time = we don't need no stinking backup plan!
YMMV

Russell G. said...

I thought so on that 'green truck CA narrative'...

'nuff said.
(scan around the US ports on the real time maritime positioning system)

Anonymous said...

And all this assumes that those ships leave port empty? Don't they load freight for a return voyage? Even with as little as we export? Just wondering.

John Wilder said...

I've been holding back on writing about this SNAFU for just this reason: generally, a charlie foxtrot of these proportions has multiple fathers.

Stealth Spaniel said...

Was very, very impressed with your analysis. And I laughed my butt off-best explanation I have ever seen! Yeah, I went to work for a Big Box recently. God knows, toilet paper is once again a hot item. 48 rolls in a package and the public wants 5 packages at a time. We only allow a one package purchase, so folks come in Every.Single.Day for a package of toilet paper. Frankly, trucks are dropping off freight all night. We seem to have full shelves of whatever.

John A. Fleming said...

I just looked it up online, marinetraffic.com. There are at least 80 ships anchored or drifting around LAX/LGB with destinations for those two ports.

The other thing I notice, is because I drive down to that area on an intermittent basis probably weekly. The laydown yards around the cranes are stacking up higher and higher with conexes, week by week. It won't do any good unloading the ships 24/7 if you can't empty the yards. Even before going 24/7, they couldn't move the incoming cargo.

This looks to be a "how did you go broke?" "slowly, then suddenly" situation. LAX/LGB are in the suddenly phase.

Anonymous said...

As usual an extremely well researched article helping those who demand the blue sky and fresh air of reason no matter how dark and stanky the underbelly.

My compliments to your statistical and research staff.

MF

Anonymous said...

SS - Imagine what happens when people can't get TP. We can cut back on food each day or start a garden, we can fix a rip or sew on a button and make do with what we have, we can walk not ride, burn wood if we have fireplaces but what happens if TP and related products (baby wipes, Kleenex,etc.) become rationed? We can use cloth handkerchief but what do we use for a replacement for TP? Sears no longer publishes a catalogue to use, newsprint leaves lots of ink behind, special towels that can be washed or as so many do in 3rd world use leaves but they dry out. What can our sewers and septic handle? No one is willing to consider what happens if the stores shelves are empty. So I understand the panic I see. And about 1/3 of the people shopping have a tp stuffed in their carts. And our area gets only a load or two a week. Small out of the way town. Biggest towns are 2+ hours away.

John A. Fleming said...

I counted it again this morning. 89 cargo ships drifting or anchored outside LAX/LGB. Just cargo, there's also some tankers out there. D'ya think the port folks are trying to hit 100 and win the jackpot?

Aesop said...

No.
As outlined, the port is already overwhelmed, and the more ships sent there only exacerbates the problem.

It also idles more ships and containers as they enter the non-moving queue, which worsens things worldwide for the entire logistical pipeline.

When someone's running as fast as they can, the last thing you want to be doing is handing them additional kettlebell weights to speed them up.

But that's exactly what's happening.

Phelps said...

The average age of a Class 8 tractor truck in America is 12.8 years old as of 2018. That means that rather than 90%+, it's more like 50%. It's a not-insignificant issue, especially since Class 8 orders filled has been down for the last 3 years, meaning that average age has likely gotten older (my own SWAG would be up to about 14 years old, based on half as many trucks being sold.)

Aesop said...

As noted in Comments at the OP, Phelps.
It's still a largely insignificant factor in the problem, and not even among the Top Twenty of such.
Half the trucks isn't the problem.
Only 2M trucks nationwide in total for 500,000 containers and counting is a problem.
Most of those newer trucks will already be in CA, because of necessity.

But the system was never designed to run at 125% of capacity after slam-shifting it from Neutral.

The "green trucking" mandate accused has as much to do with that as cow farts have to do with Climate Change.