Saturday, August 29, 2020

Every Once In Awhile

From time to time, work means babysitting patients on hold for an entire shift, and I can bootleg a little access, when everyone behaves. Comments were cleaned out at the same time, because I could get to legacy blogger from this PC, it not being an archaic tablet. FWIW, The Circus masquerading as a presidential election continues unabated as far as I can tell, and the only thing I'm certain of is that no matter who wins in November, somebody's going to riot over it. My suspicion is Orangeman takes 40 states, but two months is still a long time. ----- WRT Kung Flu, the second spike is tapering off, its launch coinciding exactly with the release of more Gilligans to freedom, and its demise coinciding with them getting whack-a-moled by TPTB in their respective states. It's going to happen again when schools are re-opened, because you can't get 10 and under kids to wear masks or wash their hands to (literally) save a life, even if it's that of granny, Grandpa, or their teachers. My SWAG is another spike after that, and another from Thanksgiving to New Years, because holidays. If we're not still playing mask and gloves games nationwide through Easter next year, I'll be properly ecstatic. And after literally millions of tests, my hunch has proven correct: even in Califrutopia, this never penetrated beyond 10% of the population, and the CFR is running between 2 and 3%. Color me completely unsurprised, as that's what I said before mass delusion took hold from coast to coast, and from the looney Left to the whacktard Right. The worst part was that had people been less stupid from the get-go, this could have been crib-strangled with one three week lockdown of everything that moved, if it had been done all at once, and just once. Slow-rolling it, and letting the morons in NYFS pretend it wasn't a thing got us the first 50K dead. After that, it was a full-on party. Then and now, the Gilligans have driven this bus, just like in every pandemic. What's not fair is that they aren't the ones dying, just the ones spreading it to those who do. If you like your pandemic, you can keep your pandemic. Let me know how that's working out for ya. ----- I dunno about anyone else, but I'm not missing any sportsball, of any stripe. (Never paid much mind to it anyways, but now it's a hard complete skip.) They were always entitled whiny crybabies, and now they're ignorant clueless entitled whiny crybabies. Dear MLB/NBA/NFL/NASCAR/etc: Google the career paths of Skinhead O'Connor and the Pixie Twits after they forget their job description and area of expertise, and let me know when the penny drops. When pro football and baseball players et al are getting gigs working in car dealerships and selling siding in the off-season, and ticket prices drop to less than hourly minimum wage, the cluebats will once again have struck home. Until then, their entire industry doesn't exist for me, and I can't say it's been any great loss. And Hollywierd is finding out they're non-essential as well. O frabjous day! Callou! Callay! ----- That's really all I've missed covering in the interim, except the opportunity to make the "Hidin'/Kneepads: Give Communism and Anarchy A Chance" 2020 campaign poster meme. I have new wheels that I enjoy, the Krag project is coming to a middle, and my life is happy, for the moment, despite the decrease in internet access. Which has probably been a blessing in disguise. How long things stay neat-o for all of us depends on how things go in November, which is already ten ways wrong on how America is supposed to work, but them's the breaks. The Founders, in their boundless spot-on pessimism at the foibles of human character, originally structured things so that the only person you cast a direct vote for was your own personal congressweasel. No one else. Screwing that pooch has put the republic on life support, and dimmed anyone's prospects for life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness rather severely since it went off the original rails. If you aren't adding to your larder and medicine chest, and doing regular PT, you're behind the curve. Ammo is already beyond your grasp, for the most part. COVID was a shock to the system; don't get surprised by the next hiccup. The slope gets steeper and more slippery as time goes on. Best wishes until I can make this a more frequent feature, and thanks for dropping by.

31 comments:

Spud said...

I'll continue to check in every day.
Intermittent posting seems to have become another contagion contaminating the blogosphere...

jen said...

THANK GOD. I was really getting worried. Glad you're well, stay safe. Btw,in my ER, they're making us work sick, with KungFlu. So much for all the stupid guidelines, mandates and protocols. :-/

Aesop said...

Much as I miss all y'all, it's amazing how quickly you can get used to not turning on the computer and piddling around on it half the day.

Unknown said...

I miss your posts, but I agree that being on a computer reading is not doing anyone any favors. Take care

Robert said...

Aesop@0446: Yeah, but we haven't gotten used to turning on the computer and not seeing your piddlings. I'm glad you're back.

RandyGC said...

Glad you're still hanging in. I've got you on an RSS feed, so will be here anytime you pop smoke.

elysianfield said...

Aesop,
After 30 days without a word, I REALLY thought you had died....

Survivormann99 said...

Aesop,

While I see that you are now somewhat dismissive of the threat posed by COVID, I sense a profound sea shift over what you were saying earlier this year. I am sure that others have noticed, too. I, too, was among those who expected far greater devastation from this virus.

In 1900, the average life expectancy for an American white male was 49. For an American black male it was 33. An American white male had only a 5% chance of living to 85. Only a very few would have said that life was not worth living in 1900. Now, some people think that it is almost a constitutional right to live to 85.

I believe that I have read that there are 1.5 million residents of nursing homes in the country. As brutal as this sounds, if all of them died, it would not change the country much. (This is coming from a man who is "of a certain age" and who is a lot closer to 85 than he would like.) We can't shut the country down because a small percentage of the population might die. People in their 20s, 30s, and 40s, people almost impervious to Covid, deserve their right to a normal life, just as older people like me had.

Chip Anderson said...

Enjoy the respite.

squeeky's mom said...

Glad your back even if intermittently. It may be my pessimistic nature but I think we are going to have major shortages this winter so I hedging my bets and being a squirrel.

Toirdhealbheach Beucail said...

Glad to hear you are doing well Aesop.

Question: We are seeing second spikes in countries (Italy, New Zealand) that had hard lock downs. Would one three week hard lock down really resolved the issue?

Greg said...

A sabbatical is good for the soul. It's your blog to post as you see fit, and though I check almost daily for updates, I can only condone taking breaks. I've seen your occasional comments on other blogs, so I knew you were OK. Thanks for all the good reads you've already given us, and we'll keep looking for more.

Unknown said...

missed you

John said...

I'm still utterly irritated - in Modern Mayberry, we hunkered down, played by the rules, and went to zero cases for over a month back not soon after outbreak. Zero.

If other places had followed suit? We would be 100% done.

Why can't other people be like Modern Mayberry?
-JW

LSWCHP said...

Good to hear from you mate.

Bob G said...

Glad to hear you’re well. I’ll check in here daily, as well. I’ve come to believe that if TPTB weren’t incompetent, they’d have no management style at all.

vanderleun said...

Hit carriage return at least twice. Reading one long extended paragraph loses readers that are already here.

Knowledge Is Power said...

A few points I'd like to add to the conversation, and also preface these with saying I have had and fully recovered from COVID19.

More key data points are needed to understand the true fatality rate. I do not agree that taking current deaths / total positive test rate is sufficient or intellectually honest.

For consideration and discussion:

- How many people have had it, but didn't know it because they were asymptomatic? (https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/40-45-who-contract-new-coronavirus-are-asymptomatic#Large-numbers-of-asymptomatic-cases)

- How many asymptomatic carriers develop antibodies? (https://www.augustahealth.com/health-focused/covid-19-asymptomatic-carriers-and-antibody-tests)

We should be realistic and acknowledge that there is a non-zero number of asymptomatic people in the US that had it but were never counted in the total positive test count, and a non-zero number of asymptomatic persons that have developed antibodies. Therefore, we know that the fatality rate is LOWER, but we can't quantify this without more data.

What this could mean: If 40% (40%!!!!!!) of people could potentially be asymptomatic, and therefore NEVER seek testing, we will have much higher herd immunity than the numbers indicate. I know this is true because I have first hand reports of a friend/father who took his daughter to college. The college requires testing prior to starting classes, so she took test, despite having no symptoms. Result? POSITIVE! So she tells her father, who also takes the test, despite having no symptoms. Result? POSITIVE! The ONLY reason these were caught is because they were tested as part of a pre-screening event, NOT because of symptoms.

Using a conservative figure that 60% of people tested represent the 'symptomatic' population (as of 8/31 this is 6,009,917), then that means that a theoretical total number of ~10M people have actually been infected (~6M symptomatic tested <60%> + ~4M <40%> asymptomatic untested).

A death rate of 180k in 5M is ~3.6%
A death rate of 180k into 10M is 1.8%

But what if the count is higher? Much, much higher? While all of this is pure speculation, if this is truly as 'contagious' as everyone is saying it is (to justify wearing asks, etc.), then what if we had:
20M infected = .9% fatality
30M infected = .6% fatality
40M infected = .45% fatality
50M infected = .36% fatality

Solutions:

1. Nationwide antibody testing of everybody to identify who has had it, but never knew it.
2. More testing to determine what % of asymptomatic patients leads to antibodies

Lastly, I'll briefly share my direct experience with COVID.
Day 1: odd sinus sensation
Day 2: burning / intense sensation in sinuses, especially with air directly blowing in face from fan or car air conditioner
Day 3: Continue sinus headache and fatigue, and lost smell at the end of day
Day 4: Loss of smell continues, sinus pain and headaches reduce. No congestion or fluid discharge from sinuses.
Day 5: Sought Covid test via nasal swab.
Day 6-8: No sense of smell, general fatigue in afternoon after 8 hours of being awake
Day 8: Received positive test result
Day 9-16: No sense of smell, continued general fatigue in afternoon
Day 17: starting to feel less fatigue
Day 18-20: almost back to full stamina.
Day 19: started to regain sense of smell (~20-30%)
Completed quarantine

Here's the kicker: Wife tested negative on nasal swab, and whole family tested negative for blood antibodies 15 days after we completed our 14 day quarantine. I tested POSITIVE for blood antibodies. They were 100% exposed to me daily during first 8 days of having symptoms and awaiting test results. Why did they not get infected if this is so contagious??? Natural Immunity? Strong immune systems? Memory T Cells?

Interested to hear thoughts from the group.



Night driver said...

You're just enjoying a brief reprieve from the madness.

Enjoy the gentle vacation.

Night Driver

docfromjerusalem said...

Hey Doc, the language has become more civil. We take your observations and warnings seriously. Please continue the reportage from the frontlines.

Craig said...

Paragraphs.... Are.... Your Friend... Just Saying. May want to increase the font size for us older folk as well.

Michael said...

Aesop I hope your busy at work and getting ready for the "festivities" coming soon to an area near you. I do however miss your acerbic wit and the pleasure of seeing you wack a mole on those who never seem to learn.

I also hope you've given serious thought about my suggestion you learn sailing, pick up a small beach-able swing keel sailboat and set up nomad resupplies. I'd prefer to flee mass chaos until the California Cities stop burning then do a Rourke's Drift Zulu scenario. I don't happen to have a near Alamo built hospital station, nearly a battalion of walking wounded and their arms and a amazing amount of ammo at hand for that.

How's that Krag doing? 30-40 is an obsolete round but smoky fun anyway. Smokeless powder firing Mausers ruined it's day in the Spanish-American War. Out ranged by almost 50%.

Unknown said...

@Gerard, Craig, et al:
Apologies for the one long monster paragraph, but the 'puters here default to whateverinhell style they're set to, and only IT can change that.
I tried inserting hard carriage returns when I saw the monster megagraph my missive morphed into, but no go.
One glance at earlier essays should convince anyone inclined that I known how to type appropriately, but the current situation is not by choice in many, many ways.
As soon as I can get things back to normal, rest assured I shall.
I'm hoping this week, if the temps here get below the Hotter Than Satan's Underpants level.

Endeavor to persevere.

Unknown said...

@Toirdhealbheach Beucail

I'm not convinced those countries had "hard" lockdowns.
Some knuckleheads insisted NYFC was "hard locked down", but I have firsthand reports that what they considered "locked down" was what most people would consider every day there, 24/7/365, with no-effing-lockdown evident anywhere in sight.

Kung Flu needs hosts to spread.
If all the hosts are removed from co-access, it dies off as soon as they get over it.
Which is about three weeks.
So yes, one ACTUAL 3-week total lockdown would have switched this off like a light switch - provided they actually screened and quarantined everyone else henceforth, something we haven't done in epidemics/pandemics since the 1930s.

Yet again, the Gilligans are driving this bus, and always will.
You will always be at the mercy of the stupidest people in any given group.
Limit your group size and their contacts, and you limit your risk.
Bonus points for screening out the low-IQ side of the bell curve in your group, whether that's family/tribe/whatever.
QED

Unknown said...

@Michael,

I got the Krag because it was US Gov. issue, and at a decent price on a Bubba'ed piece.
Not because it was superior to Mauser actions with smokeless powder.
For that, I have a Springfield '03.

My bucket list is to have everything from a Brown Bess to my current M-4gery, and if Uncle issues our grunts a phased plasma rifle in the 40-watt range, I'll want the civvy version of one of those too.

For now, I simply want to restore a Spanish-American War rifle to full glory, because I didn't have one of those yet, and in the total @$$ shape this one was in, I can do no further harm. It's coming along well, and the best strippers I've found have been white vinegar, and Citristrip. The fun will begin in earnest when I start the rebluing process, and making the stock back into a proper work of art, instead of having the whole thing look like something shat out the back end of Jonah's whale after a long sea voyage and trip down a cetacean alimentary canal.

When I get this pig of a blog back up on its regular ice skates, I'll post proper Before, In Progress, & After pics of the efforts.

Michael said...

Thrilled to see signs of Life from Aesop even if he's posting as Unknown :-)

For those that are wondering about COVID19 it's a well designed Bio-Weapon doing EXACTLY what it was designed to do with it's witches brew of SARS, HIV and other unnatural gene splicing's.

It's causing with the Aid and Abetment of the Media and Soros owned Democrats just enough fear and economic destruction to weaken our country for a Color Revolution CIA style. Economic destruction, distress and Mail in Voting FRAUD anybody?

Maybe someday if our Republic survives our CIA Color Revolution to emplace the Socialist-Democrats we can have our version of the Nuremburg Trials. Then those that funded and abetted COVID19 chaos will be hanged.

Praying for our Republic.

Bear Claw Chris Lapp said...

I have an idea what else takes up your time. Good and well on ya we'll be here when you get back after the November cartoon. Via Con Dios That's All Folks

Toirdhealbheach Beucail said...

Aesop - Agreed with the screen and quarantine but given today's social climate, I cannot see this ever really happening. It would be seen and described as anything other than public health.

Aesop said...

Exactly so.
The BlameTrumpers/NeverTrumpers have politicized everything to insanity, and we have a society full of Special Snowflakes who spin common sense health precautions as an infringement on their rights, despite the fact that public health common law provides the foundation for the Constitution, and predates it by 2000 years, including the concept of quarantine.

Gilliganism is a recipe for civilizational suicide, and graduating functional asstards has long-term consequences.

And yes, I was the three Unknown posts, above.
As I said, logging on from other computers has issues.

OvergrownHobbit said...

Too many unknowns, including the reliability of the tests themselves. What was the country that kicked the WHO out after they reported positive results from a goat and a papa pays?

Wash your hands and keep your distance, and if you actually can get functional masks, wear 'em (properly). And if you cannot, face shields will keep the sneeze in.

(Re: school Gilligans: local moms are reporting that kids are sharing masks at school. Yoiks.)

Glad you're well.

OvergrownHobbit said...

Hey, you're okay! I was literally just praying for you and thought I'd check your site. So glad all's (for 2020) well.