Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Crystal Ball Score: 2-0 Today




First jettisoning Sessions, and unfortunately now, this little happy report.
From a tip in Comments (thanks, A Texan):
(WaPoo) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield said Monday that the Ebola outbreak in conflict-ridden Congo has become so serious that international public health experts need to consider the possibility that it cannot be brought under control and instead will become entrenched.
If that happened, it would be the first time since the deadly viral disease was first identified in 1976 that an Ebola outbreak led to the persistent presence of the disease. In all previous outbreaks, most of which took place in remote areas, the disease was contained before it spread widely. The current outbreak is entering its fourth month, with nearly 300 cases, including 186 deaths.
If Ebola becomes endemic in substantial areas of North Kivu province, in northeastern Congo, “this will mean that we’ve lost the ability to trace contacts, stop transmission chains and contain the outbreak,” said Tom Inglesby, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, which hosted the briefing on Capitol Hill that featured the Ebola discussion with Redfield. 
In that scenario, there would be a sustained and unpredictable spread of the deadly virus, with major implications for travel and trade, he said, noting that there are 6 million people in North Kivu. By comparison, the entire population of Liberia, one of the hardest-hit countries during the West Africa Ebola epidemic of 2014-2016, is about 4.8 million.
The outbreak is taking place in a part of Congo that is an active war zone. Dozens of armed militias operate in the area, attacking government outposts and civilians, complicating the work of Ebola response teams and putting their security at risk. Violence has escalated in recent weeks, severely hampering the response. The daily rate of new Ebola cases more than doubled in early October. In addition, there is community resistance and deep mistrust of the government.
Some sick people have refused to go to treatment centers, health-care workers are still being infected, and some people are dying of Ebola or spreading the virus to new areas. An estimated 60 to 80 percent of new confirmed cases have no known epidemiological link to prior cases, making it very difficult for responders to track cases and stop transmission. In late August, the United States withdrew some of the CDC’s most seasoned Ebola experts who had been stationed in Beni, the province’s urban epicenter, because of security risks.
Hate to say "I told you so", but...

We continue to pay periodic attention to this, but with this announcement, they're laying the groundwork for when this metastasizes to the next level, gets to a major population center, and then jumps an international flight, and it becomes 2014 all over again.

And if you're playing the home game, we're currently at Level 8 (moving to 9) out of 34 on the Global Apocalypse Scale. Small potatoes, IOW. Until it's not.
Logarithmic growth will sneak up on you that way.

13 comments:

The Gray Man said...

I would like my ER manager to read this but there is zero chance of anything coming of it. More likely, my best course of action is to figure out who I have to talk to in my town of 300 people about forming guard teams and practicing road checkpoints on the four roads leading into town, and also training them on how to spot possible infections.

parascribe said...

I am an ED manager and read it. I had a discussion with my director the other day, she wasn't even aware there was an active outbreak. I remember all the prep we did in 2014, spent lots of money on equipment and training. Consensus was, if it came to us we were screwed. I believe that even more now.

Cederq said...

ER/ED Managers, Other Dept. Managers and all of upper level Admin are notorious for being slack jaw mouth breathers. They stick their head's in the sand and won't listen to front line Nurses and Techs, or become aware things like Ebola are coming. My experience is most hospital infection control are worthless. Glad I got out of nursing when I did.

The Freeholder said...

I've long said that one day, Mother Nature was going to get tired of so many of us hanging around. That day may be closer than we think unless someone pulls a vaccine out of their derriere.

Aesop said...

Unlike 2014, we have an experimental vaccine that seems safe and effective.

But you can't give the shots when people with a pre-literate worldview think it's black magic witchcraft to poison them, and armed thugs run the countryside.

Anonymous said...

Thank you for the update.

I have not seen any of this in the news. I do not think I will until it kills a dozen in a major African City, or the Mainstream Media find their photogenic victim, likely a young caring blonde nurse from Europe or the Americas.

Joe Mama said...

I hope Pharma is looking around and figuring out how to crank out the vaccine by the hundreds of millions of doses.

Having a vaccine does not do you much good if you cannot identify and contain the patients AND have enough vaccine to build a wall around them. Or, if you cannot contain the patients, to mass vaccinate everybody on the continent who wants to live.

Anonymous said...

Since Vodoo and black magic aren’t getting the job done, perhaps extreme heat and some radiation via a low altitude thermonuclear device would solve the problem for the foreseeable future. Just spit balling an alternate path, and it should make for some impressive TV coverage as well, the win factor would increase exponentially as well if the media where staged perhaps just a tad to close to the action.
Just saying

A Texan said...

"...and it should make for some impressive TV coverage as well, the win factor would increase exponentially as well if the media where staged perhaps just a tad to close to the action."
----------------
I hear that Jim Acosta is looking for a new assignment....

StarNinja said...

I think it's got more to do with them not trusting their corrupt government. Black magic only works under the pale moonlight. It don't come in syringes.

StarNinja said...

Great idea! Be a dear and hold up the bullseye so our boys don't miss. No, you're right. That's too "inhumane". Here's a press pass. Make sure the media is staged right up in there.

Aesop said...

No, it's got to do with being pre-literate tribal savages.
Putting them in shirts and pants doesn't wash the jungle out of their heads.

StarNinja said...

Seeing the state of human affairs in the Western World, I'm inclined to agree. The jungle never left us savages.