h/ts to both WRSA and My Daily Kona
Item One: As noted in that graphic above from WRSA, Oz firm Spypaq is reportedly supplying UKR with 100 cardboard small, short-range drones/month.
Item Two: 100 drones/S2S missiles/month is roughly the entire production capability of Mother Russia.
Mr. Garibaldi's original source for that is an article by Aviation Week & Space Technology. FWIW, their source and information reliability rating runs at A-1 or A-2 for 50+ years, unlike the MSM, or either side's propaganda wings in this conflict.
Obviously, a cardboard Spypaq AP/harassment drone is not a hypersonic Kinzhal by any wild stretch of imagination. We emphasize for the Usual Halfwit Suspects, we're not saying otherwise.
But by the same token, UKR is getting many other missile weapons from other sources (NATO, Turkey, Israel, et al), as well as building their own weapons, which underlines the lopsided nature of Russia's struggle to keep up with the rest of the world when they've been starved of importable tech for a year and a half. Help from China in that respect is apparently pure vaporware. Draw your own conclusions about the strength of that "alliance" in light of that reality.
Russia is struggling, and UKR has an embarrassment of riches, relatively speaking. (As the former captain of the RFS Moskva, or the admiral in charge of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol could tell you.)
And if you think Xi and ChinaInc. aren't taking copious notes of how this works in real time, with a view to how it might go for any variation of Them vs. Us over, say, Taiwan, I've got a bridge to sell you, cheap.
Each of those pieces are information.
Synthesizing them in light of each other crosses over into actual intelligence analysis.
One of these things is not like the other.
If this is news to you, you've been remiss in taking advantage of folks like Culper, over there on the right, on the blog resource list, or any number of websites where you could download for free virtually the entire unclassified assortment of current U.S. intelligence-MOS field manuals. Fix that. Adapt, or become extinct.
Remember all this when somebody tells you anything based on one article from TASS, and tries to spin it into Glorious Russian Victory, or Imminent WWIII.
Reality is quite a bit less ham-fisted, and much more nuanced.
This is why we keep telling you what we keep telling you, and it's not (and never has been) based on the latest piece of comic-book propaganda we read last.
10 comments:
Well there ya go! You’ll be doing your victory parade in Moscow next week, General!
Here’s a thought, genius: if cardboard airplanes could destroy an airfield… why hasn’t it been done already? Why haven’t the Russians done it to the Kraine?
Keep polishing that turd, retard! 😂👍
Once again, Glen, you wear your dunce cap with pride, and such mental acuity must needs be shared with mere mortals.
1) Tell the class, with appropriate links, when I, let alone anyone anywhere on the Internet, suggested or said outright that Ukraine would be marching into Moscow.
Own your Straw Retard Fallacy Award with 27 oak leaf clusters with pride. Put it on the mantle next to your negative IQ test.
2) Follow up your first spectacular failure with one explaining who ever suggested cardboard drones could, or were ever intended, to "destroy an airfield". As before, "show your work", in your case, becomes "show your ass". More vaporware for your collection of pointless points. Well-played.
Keep sucking Putin's ass to no point. Maybe it gives milk or something.
I'm guessing, having shot all your toes off, you're now going for appendages a couple of feet higher. Keep reloading. Objects over your front sight are probably smaller than they appear.
Speaking of Strange bed fellows,
I remember a joke from the 80's that illuminates the problems with our current world relationships;
Reagan and Gorbi are at a Summit chatting, Regan says "I have a strange recurring dream". Gorbi asks what it is, and Reagan says "I dream I'm in DC and there is a parade of Military men with red Banners" Gorbi asks "what do the banners say?"
Reagan replies "I don't know I can't read Russian".
Then Gorbi says "I to am troubled by the same nightmare, but mine has them marching in Moscow"
Reagan asks "What do the banners say?"
Gorbi responds "I don't know, I can't read Chinese".
The Russians and Chinese have always fought and a war in Europe doesn't change the ground truth in Asia.
But then again, our PTB have decided to give our country to the Cartels of Central and South America...What could go wrong?
Now as far as Russia, I enlisted and fought with the best in the Cold War so I have NO love of sympathy for Russia and especially Hate Communist.
But, we lost the Cold War, then again the Russians did as well...
That same Communism that destroyed Russia along with large swaths of Eastern Europe has come to our shores. We have turned Hard Socialist and are diving over the cliff towards full on Communism. Our government, schools, media and demoncrat propaganda arm called the News has been captured.
So I do NOT support the most Corrupt European Country in Europe against an Aggressor for the simple reason that WE have an Invading Army already taking over our southern states and is spreading North rapidly (thanks in no small part to obama's sock puppet providing free transportation and resources).
Do I think Russia is a problem? Yes for Europe, No for us cause we have Bigger problems much closer to home.
If 30 years of Peace Paid for overwhelmingly by U.S. has failed to prepare the the Europeans to defend themselves, then that is on them.
Strange but true, easy times breed weak men, it is far past time for European's to Care enough about their own neighborhood to stand up to the local bully.
MSG Grumpy
Just wondering when similar drones will be flying over our airbases, including right here in CONUS. Or our factories, refineries and power plants. Or any other target one might want to hit to make a statement.
Given some of the industrial disasters of late, that might already be happening.
And with wide-open borders and plenty of homegrown domestic enemies, there's certainly no shortage of would-be drone pilots to fly them, should a foreign adversary make them available.
--Wes S.
You have to figure that, yes, China is taking notes of the logistics as well as the differing strategies used by all sides in the clusterfuck known as the Ukraine war. They are also giggling gleefully and rubbing their hands as the military supplies of its 'friends' and enemies slides downward along with the will to continue spending billions on a stupid war.
Don't forget that the range and payload of these cardboard creations is considerably less than that of the 100 long range missiles Russia makes per month. A better comparison would be to rocket or aircraft missile production.
But overall, your point is valid - last year, Ukraine's military budget was third globally behind the US and China. They are being deluged with hardware from all over, in contrast to Russia who is (reportedly) only getting help from Iran and North Korea - and surely paying hard currency for it!
A point to think about vis China: what is their likelihood of invading Siberia versus Taiwan? There is already a large legal and illegal Chinese population there, lots of space, and lots of minerals, with few people.
Plus, as Russia fails they could get Western kudos there, as compared to attacking Taiwan with the Soviet style military that is failing in Ukraine.
There is a reason Clancy wrote a book on the idea...
J
@Wes S.,
We warned of that exact probability years ago, but the World's Foremost Canuckistani Drone Expert loudly and repeatedly claimed it as "UNPOSSIBLE!" on multiple blogs, despite multiple verified and documented incidents where it had already happened, based on the fact that he couldn't figure out how to do it himself, from his extensive self-proclaimed expertise.
A number of former Russian tank crewmen, now charcoal paste inside the rusted hulls of their vehicles in Ukraine, have found out which side got things right.
@J,
The underlying point isn't which drones and missile can do what. It's that Australia, alone, is sending the Ukes as many or more drone guidance packages per month than the entire Russian economy can make itself. And they're only one supplier.
Russia in its entirety has miniscule capabilities, no allies, and no bench on this, nor any likelihood of improving that anytime this decade. And what they can produce isn't getting them anywhere on the battlefield, while Moscow is regularly hit, just as Kiev was at the outset.
That's the logistics which professionals discuss.
It underlines that Russia has now sunk to less-than-peer to Ukraine in this subset of capabilities, which doesn't bode well for their long-term efforts.
Their choices remain as
a) quit
b) genocidal nuclear rage, resulting in the follow-on erasure of the Russian nation, and most of the Northern Hemisphere.
That's a shitty poker hand to be playing, when you have to start a gunfight where you're assured of getting killed to "win" the hand.
Brighter people kiss off the chips already lost, and fold.
Really smart ones realize that maybe poker's not their game.
What I don't understand is the claim by "some" people that Ukraine has suffered 400K dead or more in this conflict. Or the continuing claims that the Ukraine is on the verge of surrendering. Just because MacGregor is saying it doesn't make it so, and I don't know where he is getting his information. I could speculate, but I prefer not to be crude.
As to Aviation Leaks, I've been reading it since 1972, and subscribed to it since 1975. My cousin, then a lobbyist for Grumman(retired USMC Lt. Col), started sending copies to me when I had the pectus surgery in 1972 and gifted me with a subscription upon high school graduation in 1975. I got my own subscription in the early 1990s as I worked on aerospace design projects. AW was far more interesting to me than the auto mags or Playboys that my peers delighted in. I delighted in freaking out my libtard history teacher in HS by reading AW before class. He complained and the principal called me into his office about it. My mom was called, and she called my cousin, who ripped the principal a new one. No more complaints on that subject.
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