Today's Reality Check

This is cases. It's also a launch profile for a moonshot.
And deaths to date tracks this apace.

On January 21,2020, the US had 1 case of Kung Flu.
On February 1, we had 8 cases.
On March 1, we had 98.
Today, March 28, at 1:26AM EDT, we have 104,837.
Blame all of that on finally doing testing that you like, I don't care.

On about March 21st, we had 400 deaths from 1/21-3/21, total.
Today, we've had 410 deaths in the US in the last 17 hours.
I'm waiting to see how many more by 8AM today, but it's somewhere around 700 deaths/day now.
That's not because we just started testing. Deaths are deaths. Period.

Flat-lined at that rate, that's a 9/11 by the end of the month, at midnight Monday, in four more days.
That's the entire Iraq OIF War by Friday.
By the end of April, that's 21,000 additional deaths, which is more flu deaths than we get in an entire average year of influenza. So clearly, this isn't "just the flu, bro." And that's extrapolating them out on a flat line.

But the death rate doesn't flat-line. It grows, exponentially, just like the infection rate.
And the death rate, and tally, aren't even the problem with this bug (for the fiftieth time).
Because odds on, 97% or more of everyone lives through this just fine.
That's 320M out of 330M Americans who'll get through it with minimal muss and fuss.
And probably more than that.

But we still only have hospital beds for 0.28% of America.
2.8 per thousand of you.
And we still only have ICU beds for about 0.018% of you.
1.8 per 10,000 of you.
(Which last, BTW, isn't even enough for everyday problems, 6 days out of 10.)

But if either 1M of you need to be hospitalized, or 100,000 of you get really sick, because of Kung Flu, and need the ICU and a ventilator, health care goes bye-bye, until a month after this is all gone.

And people on vents with this are in ICU for 11-21 days.
We don't even have numbers yet on how many, even with that level of intervention, survive.
But it looks like "not many".

And if we get the numbers, and that comes back as less than 1%, we're probably going to tell you that "there will be no more ICU admits for Kung Flu pneumonia. If you get Kung Flu, and you have pneumonia, we'll be sending you back home to die. It's that, or cancel health care for everyone else. Sorry, but that's how it is."

The latest straw-clutching happy gas is to claim this will peak completely in 2 weeks, because of the assumption that "everybody's got it, so people will stop getting it."

Mathemagic FTW.

And if we just erase five or six zeroes from the Holocaust, it never happened either. That's the level of bullshit you're being spoonfed by the idiots and soothsayers.

So let's see how that fairytale works out, day by day.

You can claim anything you want with infection rate, because of the testing problems and shortcomings. Fair enough. I get that. It also bones us for ever getting accurate handles on the breadth and width of this pandemic.

But you can't gainsay the body count. We aren't suddenly counting car accidents and gang shootings as Kung Flu deaths, anywhere, AFAIK.

For the perennial shit-for-brains club, that's not panic.
It's just the actual ground reality.

Nota bene: No one told anyone to do the Headless Chicken Fandango.
Never. Not once, at any point this year.

But use the actual reality to counter the happygas b.s the idiots are pimping, harder and harder, the worse this gets.

 

UPDATE: Such happygas and mainlining hopeium includes the magical belief that things are going to be different in your AO, because your area is administered by [R]s instead of [D]s. FFS, this is a pandemic; the virus doesn't give a shit about your politics. And we've never met a politician yet that had our best interests at heart more often than not, from any party. This is not a D vs. R thing; it's an infected vs. not infected thing.

 

YMMV, but I sincerely doubt it. More enlightened administration may get you some extra time, and a few better interventions, but in the long run, this is already everywhere, and it won't stay out of town because your mayor or governor is less socialist. That's an entire barnyard of horseshit. You have lower population densities some places, which only slows the spread. If you haven't avoided it entirely, or stopped it cold (and so far, no one has), you're already doing it wrong, and that bill is going to come due, no matter where you live.

And say, how many major acute-care hospitals you got out there in Mayberry, Aunt Bea?

And how many pharmaceutical manufacturing lines? So it's already bitten you in the ass, hard, and you didn't even know it. Unless you prefer 1960s- or 1930s- (or 1830s)-era morbidity and mortality numbers for common conditions. Let me know when the penny drops for you. I'm guessing the first time you go to fill a monthly prescription, and the local pharmacist zeroes it out and says, "Sorry, don't have that anymore." Bummer. All my best to your relatives on monthly meds.

 

And FTR for the general assistance of the reading comprehension impaired, we've

1) never said this is the Zombie Apocalypse, nor even anything remotely close

2) consistently, early, and often told people not to panic

3) never told anyone, anywhere, anytime, to bug out and head for the hills.

 

This is a pandemic. We have advocated most circumspectly the appropriate response. Period.

You're not seeing it somewhere, yet? So it therefore isn't happening?

Best wishes with that plan.

We still counsel a firm lever, to break suction, and pull your heads out.

The issue for you is when, not whether.

 

If you cannot grasp those obvious facts, nor quote us or characterize our statements accurately, kindly don't mention us at all on your pages, unless desirous of the same back.

Trying to make points by telling outright lies only makes you look petty and/or stupid, which is seldom a good look for either your credibility, or your character. Let alone your blog.
We understand that Fucktards gonna Fucktard.
Best not to be one.